Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Santa Anita Park – Racing News and Analysis for February 21, 2026


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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Santa Anita Park offers a strong 10-race Saturday card highlighted by the $100,000 Wishing Well Stakes in Race 7, a six-furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares restricted to those who have not won a graded stakes since August 1, 2025. The undercard features allowance optional claiming turf routes, competitive claiming sprints on dirt and turf, and several maiden claiming and maiden special weight races with large, betting-friendly fields.

Field size and quality are notably higher than on many recent weekends, with full or near-full fields in several key races, including 14-horse lineups in Races 5, 9, and 10. The card is structured to support multiple horizontal wagers throughout the day, anchored by a high-quality feature and several deep allowance races.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Arcadia calls for dry, mild conditions with partly cloudy to sunny skies, a high around 73 degrees, and a low near 49 degrees. Winds are light, which should not materially affect pace or kickback.

Following earlier-season storms that forced several cancellations, including the Presidents Day card on February 16, the racing surfaces have had nearly a week to dry and settle. The dirt main track is listed as Fast and the turf course as Firm, with the turf rail set at 30 feet, indicating a fully functional course expected to play consistently throughout the afternoon.

Track and Post Position Bias

Recent meet data (December 28, 2025 through February 15, 2026) shows a meaningful post and style bias pattern at Santa Anita.

On the dirt in sprints, post 4 has been strongest at approximately a 23 percent win rate, followed by post 3 around 18 percent, with posts 1 and 5 performing respectably in the low- to mid-teens. Outside posts beyond 8 have underperformed in dirt sprints. In dirt routes, posts 4 and 6 share the top spot near a 19 percent win rate, with posts 3 and 5 in the mid-teens and inside posts slightly weaker; post 7 has posted an above-average strike rate, but from a small sample.​

In turf sprints, posts 1, 2, and 5 have performed best, hovering around the high-teens to 20 percent range, while post 6 has been notably weak. In turf routes, post 3 has been dominant with roughly a 25 percent win rate, followed by post 4 in the high-teens; post 2 and wider posts have produced significantly fewer winners relative to opportunities.​

Running-style data for the meet favors early speed on the main track. In dirt sprints, horses on or within one length of the lead at the half mile have won the majority of races, with true closers winning a small minority. Dirt routes similarly favor speed and pressers, with closers winning only a modest share. On turf, pace is more balanced, but one-mile races and turf sprints still tend to reward horses with tactical speed or stalking trips, while deep closers remain at some disadvantage, including in downhill sprints where middle and outside posts are historically preferred in large fields.​

Race 1 Summary: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf

The opener for Cal-bred or Cal-sired three-year-olds at a mile on turf shapes up with a moderate to honest pace, led by early types from the inside and mid-gate, including Arkadelphia and Cruise Home, with Dark Blue expected to sit close. The configuration and bias should favor tactical speed and stalking trips rather than deep closers.​

Key contenders include Third Beer, a class dropper from graded stakes company such as the Zuma Beach and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf into a softer allowance optional claiming spot, and Ventry Strand, a sprint winner stepping out to a route for a strong barn. Dark Blue is another main player, coming off a maiden turf mile win with Lasix and blinkers and drawing the highly productive turf-route post 3.

Secondary options include Dark Omen, a late-running type singled out by some handicappers, and Can’t Help Myself, a Sadler trainee with upside but listed on scratch watch. Maker and Sons and Fumano’s Magic sit in the longshot category, with possible trip improvement or rider upgrades as their primary appeal.

Race 2 Summary: Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt

This short field of older claimers at the $5,000 level projects a slow pace, with Morello likely to control the tempo if he starts, and Carol’s Comic and Alpine Thunder tracking. The dirt-sprint bias toward early speed further magnifies any lone-speed advantage.

Morello is the principal contender, dropping back to his successful claiming level and possessing enough tactical speed to dictate terms. Carol’s Comic is the main alternative, with prior success at the level and a stalking style suited to a small field. Alpine Thunder is a secondary contender cutting back from routes with a class drop, while Smarty Nose and Gentlemen’s Club project as longer-priced factors with mostly minor-award profiles.

Race 3 Summary: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf (Fillies and Mares)

This full field of older fillies and mares on the turf at a mile presents a more genuine pace, with multiple potential leaders including Delightful Laura, Going Deep, and Preem. The expected honest fractions should benefit mid-pack stalkers and strong finishers, though the turf-route bias still tilts toward forwardly placed runners drawn in posts 3 and 4.

Delightful Laura is a key contender off a series of strong turf-route efforts and solid trainer form, with tactical speed and a favorable running style. Resolve is a major player as a late-running type who has proven competitive at this level, though her tendency to settle for minor awards is a concern. Lila is an important factor from the rail with a positive rider change and class drop, projected to benefit from a contested pace.

Princess Em Too and Claire Austin serve as secondary choices, the former as a consistent mid-pack runner for a top turf barn and the latter as a two-sprints-to-a-route candidate drawn in a strong post. Baltic Fire and Miss Artois are longer-priced players with enough back class and finishing ability to land in the frame if the pace collapses.

Race 4 Summary: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt

This Cal-bred maiden claimer for fillies and mares is filled with exposed runners and a few more lightly raced types, with several showing early speed and creating the potential for a contested pace among Smiling Rapper, Siempre Naman, My Eliana, and Play for Me. The strong inside speed bias at the meet makes the early positioning especially important.

Play for Me profiles as a primary contender off a solid debut where she closed into a field that included several of today’s rivals and now draws a historically successful post for dirt sprints. Tom’s Star is a key secondary player with multiple runner-up finishes and a pattern of repeatedly hitting the board, suitable for minor awards or a breakthrough if the setup is ideal. Daddygaveittome is another contender with solid prior efforts.​

Secondary candidates include Palace Mischief, drawing a positive post and noted by at least one handicapper, and Siempre Naman, who returns with a weight break for an aggressive trainer, while Bitter Truth and Smiling Rapper offer outsider appeal primarily through trip and post considerations.

Race 5 Summary: Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf

This large turf-sprint claiming field is one of the day’s most complex races, with a hot projected pace involving Tigerhon, Central Dispatch, Pioneer Prince, and Code Duello, among others. The combination of multiple speed types and a big field should reward horses with tactical pace and the ability to finish without getting buried in traffic.​

Central Dispatch is a key contender, dropping from a higher claiming level and making a second start off a long layoff while drawing a highly productive inside turf-sprint post. Doncic is another central player off a strong closing second behind some of today’s rivals with competitive speed figures. Code Duello is a frontline contender after a sharp, fast turf win in his return to grass, suggesting he is in top form.

Harcyn, Tigerhon, and Mucho Del Oro form the main secondary tier, combining respectable form, favorable posts in some cases, and rider strength to make them viable for shares. The remainder of the field is stocked with longshots such as Dakota Country, Autism Puzzle, and assorted deep closers who require both an extreme pace collapse and a clean trip to factor.

Race 6 Summary: Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt

The one-mile condition for non-winners of two at the $16,000 level yields a field where Bowtie Boys projects as the controlling speed, with limited early pressure from Irish Element or others. Given the meet-long bias toward forward types in dirt routes, an uncontested Bowtie Boys is strongly advantaged.

Bowtie Boys is the central contender, coming off multiple runner-up one-mile efforts and now making a second start off a long layoff while retaining a top rider and favorable draw. Spun Not Stirred is a key secondary contender with a strong last-out figure and first-off-the-claim profile for a barn that can move horses up. If Smiling Tizzy draws in from the also-eligible list, he is another viable secondary option off a similar angle.​

Canyahearmeknockin and Irish Element are main supporting players with some upside if pace dynamics differ from projections, while Grandisimo, Uncle Evco, and others profile more as price horses needing race-shape luck.​

Race 7 Summary: Wishing Well Stakes, 6 Furlongs Turf

The feature stakes has an honest projected pace, with Gratefully, Antifona, Miss Lizzy, and Jungle Peace all capable of contributing early fractions, and Egyptian Mau as the primary closer. The turf-sprint data slightly disfavors deep closers, but a genuinely run race gives versatile stalkers and strong finishers a fair shot.

Gratefully is the main contender as an undefeated filly making her stakes debut off steadily improving figures and a recent local turf win, well suited to a stalking or pace-pressing trip. Jungle Peace is a key rival as a proven graded winner over the course and a specialist on Santa Anita turf returning fresh for a high-percentage barn. Egyptian Mau is the leading closer and class dropper from graded company whose late kick could be decisive if the leaders overdo it.

Secondary choices include Saratoga Special, a well-bred overseas stakes winner making a U.S. debut with sharp local works, and Nay V Belle, a consistent graded-level mare cutting back in class. Longshot possibilities are led by Miss Lizzy, a deep closer highlighted as a value horse by some handicappers, and Imaboutago, a course-proven runner with tactical speed at a double-digit price.

Race 8 Summary: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt

This Cal-bred maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies features several lightly raced runners with upside, including a pair from the Jeff Bonde barn. The projected pace sees Twisted Humor prominent early, with Shady Stripes and others tracking.​

Twisted Humor is a major contender as a filly with back-to-back seconds and strong early speed entering her third career start, a common breakthrough point. Shady Stripes is another key player, having overcome a troubled start to rally wide for third behind Twisted Humor and likely to improve with a cleaner trip in her third outing.​

Cammy’s Girl is a notable secondary contender if she starts, dropping out of maiden special weight with a positive barn and rider. Meridian Mae is another secondary factor, making her first start for a price tag for a trainer with excellent numbers when dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming on dirt. Longer-priced runners such as Lil Tessa, Voices of Autism, and Can You Dream require improvement but could find minor shares if the Bonde pair and Cammy’s Girl underperform.

Race 9 Summary: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf

This large downhill turf field features multiple pace types and a complex configuration, with early speed from inside and mid-gate horses such as Moonlit Sonata, Double Jab, and Burning Rubber, and a deep supporting cast of stalkers and closers. The hillside layout, combined with historical preferences for middle and outside posts in large fields, places a premium on versatile runners breaking from posts 5 through 10.

Anmer Hall is a central contender as a downhill specialist whose most recent effort was marred by severe trouble rather than a form regression; his prior wins on the course and strong work pattern indicate a rebound is likely. Yacowlef is another key player, having run well in his first try down the hill off the claim and possessing an ideal stalking style for this configuration. Lyle The Crocodile drops from graded company and cuts back to a sprint, making him a logical class-relief threat despite a tricky inside post.

Moonlit Sonata and Burning Rubber are important secondary options combining tactical speed, competent barns, and quality riders, though the rail draw is a concern for the former. Beef Winslow and Helicity are price horses with outside or mid-gate draws that could take advantage of a contested pace and the course configuration.

Race 10 Summary: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf

The finale is a deeply competitive maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies at a mile on turf with a full gate of 14. The pace looks moderate, with several forward types including Essential Lady and Shane’s the Brains (if drawn in) and tactical speed from inside posts such as Channel Place and Split. The turf-route bias toward post 3 and tactical positioning will be important considerations.

Yurak is a principal contender as a filly with two strong runner-up turf efforts already under her belt, entering her third start with a strong barn and rider, and a proven ability to handle this class and distance. Chair’s Coin is another key player, boasting consistent in-the-money efforts in all starts and a solid closing kick for a trainer-rider combination with strong turf credentials. Daring Pursuit is highlighted by several handicappers as a live contender with upside in this setup.

Secondary choices include Cortina d’Amprezzo, a D’Amato European import off a promising debut, and Darya, another D’Amato runner making a U.S. debut with good local works and Lasix. Zuraya, from post 3, carries the statistical advantage of the meet’s most productive turf-route post and represents a potential value play.

Longshot interest centers on Channel Place, an improving type with a recent sharp work, Egyptian Mistress, who combines a high-profile rider-trainer pairing at a large price, and Lerios, a first-time starter from a high-percentage barn, particularly noteworthy for turf assignments.

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