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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s card at Tampa Bay Downs features an eight-race sequence with a heavy emphasis on claiming ranks and maiden events. The program offers a balanced mix of dirt sprints, dirt routes, and three scheduled turf contests at various distances. High-percentage barns like Gerald Bennett, Kathleen O’Connell, and Jon Arnett are well-represented, signaling a competitive afternoon for local horsemen and shippers alike.
Weather Forecast
Location: Oldsmar
Condition: Mostly sunny
High Temperature: 73°F
Low Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Precipitation: 15% chance of rain
Track Bias & Surface Notes
- Main Track (Dirt): Historically, Tampa’s “sandier” surface favors tactical speed in sprints (6 to 7 furlongs). In route races (1 mile+), the inside rail (Post 1) has shown a statistical advantage, with roughly 15% of winners succeeding from the innermost stall.
- Turf Course: Firm conditions are expected. The inside remains the place to be on the grass, where rail-skimming trips often prevail. However, in longer turf routes (8.5f+), outside closers can occasionally find racing room to get up for the minor shares.
Race Notes & Key Contenders
The afternoon’s highlight is the aggressive class drop of Fly Life (Race 7), who moves from Stakes-level consideration into the claiming ranks. Similarly, Secret Empire (Race 3) finds a significant relief in class. Expect the Bennett/Camacho and Arnett/Camacho tandems to be the primary focus of the public’s attention throughout the mid-card.
- Key Contenders: Lucky Curlin (R1), Bayou Melody (R2), Secret Empire (R3), Classic Ballad (R5), Fly Life (R7), Perky (R8).
- Secondary Choices: Funkenstein (R1), Allons (R2), Rons Legacy (R4), Ship It (R5), Getaholdayourself (R6).
- Longshots to Watch: Leonidas Stand (R4), Eros’s Girl (R5), April Spun (R6).
Consensus Picks
Win: LUCKY CURLIN (5) – 35% confidence
Place: FUNKENSTEIN (4) – 25% confidence
Show: SUPREME SONG (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: SARGEANT BARGER (2) – 10% confidence
Win: BAYOU MELODY (1) – 40% confidence
Place: ALLONS (6) – 30% confidence
Show: THEE NEW BEGINNING (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: MT. D’ORO (4) – 10% confidence
Win: SECRET EMPIRE (4) – 55% confidence
Place: JOHNNYFRENCHFRI (3) – 20% confidence
Show: PROTEGE (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: GUAPO AGAIN (7) – 5% confidence
Win: FUTURE BLUES (5) – 28% confidence
Place: RONS LEGACY (3) – 25% confidence
Show: SHOO IN (6) – 15% confidence
Alternative: LEONIDAS STAND (1) – 10% confidence
Win: CLASSIC BALLAD (6) – 35% confidence
Place: SHIP IT (4) – 30% confidence
Show: DIVINE ROMANCE (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: EROS’S GIRL (1) – 10% confidence
Win: BEAUTIFUL EMMA (9) – 25% confidence
Place: GETAHOLDAYOURSELF (3) – 22% confidence
Show: SHE’S LIT (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: APRIL SPUN (7) – 15% confidence
Win: FLY LIFE (8) – 60% confidence
Place: CHAPITA (7) – 20% confidence
Show: PRANCIN INTHE DARK (1) – 10% confidence
Alternative: CHARMING JENNIE (2) – 5% confidence
Win: PERKY (3) – 35% confidence
Place: SEA SHANTY (5) – 30% confidence
Show: SUMMER FLOWER (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: BRAVO KITTEN (13) – 10% confidence
