Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to Tampa Bay Downs for a competitive Friday afternoon of thoroughbred racing. Today’s eight-race card offers a balanced mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and allowance optional claiming events. The schedule heavily utilizes both the main dirt track and the turf course.
The day’s feature is Race 6, an Allowance Optional Claiming event for three-year-old fillies ($55,500 purse) at a mile on the turf. Handicappers should note several scratches in the third and eighth races, which will significantly impact pace projections.
Weather and Track Conditions
- Forecast: Sunny with a high of 73°F and a low of 50°F.
- Winds: Northwesterly at 9 mph; 5% chance of rain.
- Track Surfaces: The main dirt track is expected to be fast, while the turf course remains firm and in excellent condition.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
- Main Dirt Track: Historically favors early speed, particularly in short sprints (6 and 7 furlongs). Middle to inside posts hold a steady advantage for securing early position.
- Turf Course: More equitable for various running styles. While early speed isn’t dominant, mid-pack stalkers and tactical closers often succeed in route distances. No glaring biases are expected; success typically goes to horses navigating traffic for a sustained late run.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (12:35 PM)
- Race Notes: 6-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares; honest pace expected.
- Key Contenders: Marty’s Gal (dropping in class, outside post) and Queen of Spirits (strong tactical speed).
- Secondary Choices: Red Hot Catalina and That Thing You Do (early pace threat).
- Longshots: E Complicato.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming (01:05 PM)
- Race Notes: 6.5 furlongs for 3-year-old fillies; features several lightly raced runners.
- Key Contenders: Sagcy (top speed figures/closing ability) and Rules for Three (major class drop).
- Secondary Choices: Love of J and Ez Yours.
- Longshots: Guavaberry (apprentice weight allowance).
Race 3 – Claiming (01:36 PM)
- Race Notes: 5.5 furlongs; pace scenario significantly altered by three scratches.
- Key Contenders: Awesome Fantasy (consistent form) and Harper’s Afleet (beneficiary of small-field late kick).
- Secondary Choices: Mendello.
- Longshots: Kalinba.
Race 4 – Claiming (02:07 PM)
- Race Notes: 1 1/16 mile turf route; large field with a high-speed scramble early.
- Key Contenders: Makoa (consistent, tactical), Endless Reign (classy closer), and Tigre (primary speed).
- Secondary Choices: Two’s a Crowd and Toro Forward.
- Longshots: Lake Chapala.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming (02:38 PM)
- Race Notes: 7-furlong dirt sprint; early position is critical.
- Key Contenders: Fly Commander (improving form) and Great Hunt (class edge).
- Secondary Choices: Firstflashofmoon and Uncle Zeb.
- Longshots: Dave Did It.
Race 6 – Feature: Allowance Optional Claiming (03:09 PM)
- Race Notes: 1-mile turf route for 3-year-old fillies; scratches of Vanish and Golden Beach shift the pace.
- Key Contenders: Abigail (strong credentials, tactical speed) and I’ve Got the Honey (powerhouse barn/pedigree).
- Secondary Choices: Permian Basin and Go Mischievous.
- Longshots: Flowko.
Race 7 – Claiming (03:39 PM)
- Race Notes: 6.5 furlongs for older claimers; swift contested pace expected.
- Key Contenders: Rebel Empire (veteran closer) and Bang a Rang (class drop).
- Secondary Choices: Secret Treasure and Homer Jones.
- Longshots: Litigant.
Race 8 – Claiming (04:09 PM)
- Race Notes: 1-mile turf route; heavily impacted by scratches.
- Key Contenders: Calvino (tough to catch if given easy lead) and Cousin Ed (strong closer).
- Secondary Choices: J Squared and Dancing Bear.
- Longshots: Deportivo.
Personnel Watch
- Jockeys to Follow: Samy Camacho (turf dominant), Samuel Marin (turf timing), Sonny Leon (aggressive dirt sprints), and Cipriano Gil (strong on speed horses).
- Trainers to Follow: Mark E. Casse (turf fillies), Kathleen O’Connell (dirt sprinters/claimers), and Michael Dini. Watch Jon G. Arnett and Gerard Ochoa for horses dropping in claiming price.
