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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Tampa Bay Downs presents a nine-race Friday card on February 20, 2026, with a blend of dirt sprints, dirt routes, and turf routes for claimers, starter runners, and allowance-level horses. The program begins with a 6-furlong dirt claiming race for non-winners of three and culminates in a 1 1/16-mile turf claiming event for non-winners of three, offering a balanced mix of pace shapes and class levels across the day. Purses range from modest lower-level claiming pots to a feature allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares, providing competitive fields and a variety of form and class angles.
Weather and Track Conditions
The local forecast for Oldsmar, Florida, calls for a warm afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s, under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and only a small chance of precipitation. These conditions point strongly toward a fast main track and a firm-to-good turf course, with no significant weather-related concerns expected during the racing program. The turf rail is scheduled to be set at 30 feet, which will slightly tighten turns and can enhance the advantage of horses with tactical speed and good position into the first bend.
Track Bias and Post Position Profile
Recent meet data show Tampa Bay Downs playing generally fair, but with clear tendencies that should inform evaluation of race shape and running styles.
On the dirt, early speed has held a strong advantage in sprints, with front-runners and pace-pressers winning a high percentage of races and inside posts 1 through 3 outperforming outer gates. In dirt routes, forward placement remains important, and inside posts again show a distinct edge, particularly posts 1 through 3, with a noticeable drop-off for horses drawn wide around both turns.
On the turf, routes have favored stalkers and tactical runners sitting just off the pace rather than deep closers or all-out front-runners. Horses able to secure mid-pack or just-behind-the-leaders positions and launch a sustained move in the lane have been most effective, especially with the rail out, where saving ground and securing position early matter more.
Race-by-Race Summary: Key Contenders, Secondary Choices, Longshots
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, Dirt, Claiming N3L (Older)
The opening race is a compact six-horse field where pace and trip should prove decisive. There is multiple speed signed on, including inside and mid-gate runners, suggesting a solid if not torrid early tempo.
R N R Audible (1) draws the rail with speed in a race shape that tends to favor inside pace, while Troops (4) and Develop Product (3) also bring early foot into the equation. Sebastianthe First (5) stands out as the primary contender: a proven Tampa sprinter with effective stalking speed who can sit just off the leaders and pounce in the lane. Develop Product (3) and R N R Audible (1) rate as logical secondary players given their speed and connections, while Troops (4) offers mid-range value as another pace player with back-class. Sherman Fury (6) projects as a longshot whose prior form and uncertain participation status temper his appeal despite decent overall record and some upside as an off-pace player if the leaders hook up early.
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, Dirt, Claiming (Three-Year-Olds)
This second race features seven three-year-olds stretching to seven furlongs, with several showing forward running styles. The pace figures to be contested with more than one horse intent on the lead.
If I Can Dream (5) shapes up as the key contender: a lightly raced gelding with strong recent form, solid figures, and a highly capable barn and rider combination. His stalking style sits ideally behind the projected early duel. El Orejon (7) is another primary player, having shown he can handle Tampa and the distance while possessing enough speed to be prominent early without necessarily being overextended. As secondary choices, I’m Mischievous (6) and W W Star (2) have enough speed and form to be part of the outcome; they bring both early pace and respectable finishing ability if they do not overdo it early. Moral Power (1) and Gray Beast (4) are more speculative inclusions, cutting back from route-type efforts and offering mild longshot appeal if the race falls apart late and they can finish into a tiring pace.
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, Claiming N2L (Older)
The third race is a lower-level non-winners-of-two route where class and form gaps are narrower and trip becomes critical. The pace picture looks more moderate, with no pure need-the-lead types on paper and several stalker or mid-pack runners.
Tony B (4) projects as a leading contender, combining tactical speed, acceptable two-turn form, and a suitable post that allows a ground-saving tracking trip. Tiztimonial (6) is another key player after a recent win at the same distance on this surface, showing that he handles the configuration and can finish strongly in the lane. Mongolian Champ (7), if in the field, and My Lucky Angel (1) rate as the main secondary options: Mongolian Champ offers a consistent if not prolific record with the stamina to stay, while My Lucky Angel benefits from the inside draw but may need some help up front given his tendency to sit deeper. King Reigert (3) fits the profile of a price horse with some upside, having a respectable win rate and capable barn; in a race short on clear standouts, he qualifies as a workable longshot with the right trip.
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, Starter Optional Claiming (Older)
Race 4 presents a more seasoned group at a starter optional claiming level, with two prominent speed horses and several capable stalkers. Pace should be honest to strong, as both The Best Distance (8) and El Chispazo (3) prefer to be forward.
El Chispazo (3) is a principal contender, combining strong win percentage, proven local two-turn form, and a favorable inside draw that plays into the track’s route bias. The Best Distance (8) is another top-level candidate with a substantial career record and recent success at the same course and distance, though he must overcome a wider post which can cost ground around both turns. Embrace My Uncle (5) serves as a dangerous secondary choice, carrying less weight and possessing a stalker style that could capitalize if the two main speeds pressure each other too firmly. Jades Jay (6) and Triple Pass (4) offer secondary and minor longshot interest as honest, consistent types who can sit behind the primary speed. Style Me Royal (7) brings back-class and a high overall win rate but has shown less recent sharpness, which makes him more of a speculative price possibility than a primary contender.
Race 5 – 1 Mile, Turf, Starter Allowance (Older)
The first turf event of the afternoon is a one-mile starter allowance with several proven turf performers. With the rail out and known turf bias, mid-pack and stalking runners with good position are preferred.
Eldest Son (4) and Rigel (1) headline the group. Eldest Son offers class and a strong recent Tampa turf win at this distance, likely to be prominent either setting or pressing the pace. Rigel brings excellent win percentage, strong local turf form, and an ideal inside post that can allow a stalking or tracking trip saving ground. Noble Factor (6) profiles as an especially strong secondary player, boasting an exceptional in-the-money record and recent wins at similar conditions, albeit often coming from a bit farther back. Crumlin Lad (5) adds depth as a seasoned turf runner with a stalker style aligned with the prevailing course pattern. Double Neat (8), if fully fit and allowed to run, and Uncle Truly (7) could provide value as mid-range or longshot players, both possessing styles that can work if the early tempo is quicker than expected.
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, Allowance Optional Claiming (Fillies and Mares)
The feature race is a two-turn allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares, with a clear standout pace horse and several high-quality closers and stalkers in support.
Tortuga Island (5) appears as the central contender, a high-percentage winner with recent dominant dirt-route form at Tampa and a natural speed style that matches the track’s bias in two-turn races. Wits and Wagers (6) brings class and strong overall earnings as the primary closing threat, well suited to take advantage if early fractions are more aggressive than projected. Mi Amore (3) is a core secondary choice with a flexible stalking style and consistent performances at similar levels, providing a mid-range alternative to the top pair. From the rail, Kuku (1) stands out as a noteworthy value type, combining an advantageous inside post and decent recent form, making her a plausible upset candidate if she can secure a ground-saving position. My Little Wildcat (7) represents the key longshot: a competitive mare with good in-the-money percentages who must prove she can transfer recent turf and shorter-distance form to this longer dirt assignment.
Race 7 – 1 Mile, Turf, Maiden Claiming (Fillies and Mares)
This large-field maiden claiming turf mile is one of the most chaotic races on the card, with 14 entrants, multiple unknowns, and a turf bias that favors tactical stalkers in the first flight rather than deep closers or hard-chasing leaders.
D’argento Bolt (5) is the central contender, with the best combination of earnings, recent consistent finishes, and a stalking style that matches the Tampa turf profile. Her repeated runner-up finishes at this distance suggest she consistently runs winning-type races but has yet to break through. Go K J Go (3) is a key secondary contender, lightly raced but with strong in-the-money form and a closing style that could thrive if the large field generates a contested early pace. Too Much Fun (4) projects as another secondary player, benefiting from a capable rider and a late-running style, though her lack of prior in-the-money finishes is a concern. Forget Tomorrow (2) offers solid longshot appeal as a true stalker in a field overloaded with inconsistent or deep-closing types, and Yammy Yammy Bella (1) and Curlina Star (9) both qualify as interesting prices: the former brings deep experience and a rail draw with mid-pack tendencies, and the latter offers recent good efforts and a stalking profile that fits the bias.
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, Dirt, Starter Optional Claiming (Three-Year-Old Fillies)
Race 8 is a competitive seven-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old fillies, with several lightly raced, improving types who have already shown stakes of quality.
Questnbled’cisions (5) ranks as a major contender, coming in with back-to-back wins at local sprint distances and a forwardly placed style that suits the track’s sprint profile. Authentic Wave (7) is another key player, with a strong career in-the-money rate, consistent form, and a stalking style ideal for the projected moderate-to-honest pace. Ridgie (1) must be respected as a strong inside post filly with good win and in-the-money percentages and enough tactical speed to secure position right behind the pace from the rail. La Chismosa (6) adds depth as a secondary contender, from a hot barn and with enough early foot to be involved from the outset. Coqueta Blue (3) and Justamomentplease (2) supply genuine longshot interest; both have recent winning or competitive efforts and could benefit if the pace scenario becomes more intense than anticipated, especially given their flexible running styles.
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, Claiming N3L (Older)
The finale is a two-turn turf claiming route with a solid mix of pace types and several proven local performers, making it a strong closing event that should reflect the prevailing turf bias.
Tok Tok (8) stands out as a key contender, combining a strong turf background, a high-quality turf trainer, and a stalking style that is nearly tailor-made for this course and configuration. Persisten (6) serves as the primary secondary threat, entering off a sharp series of local turf efforts and demonstrating a reliable ability to finish races strongly, though often from slightly farther back than ideal for this bias. Souper Attentive (10) brings top-level class and earnings but must overcome both a wide draw and a more aggressive front-running profile that works against the prevailing stalker pattern. Magic Heart (9) has repeatedly run good races on this course as a closer and is a natural secondary or third-tier option. Trackster (5) qualifies as the notable price horse: recent wins and seconds at the same distance and surface, combined with a mid-pack or stalking style that syncs well with the course tendencies, make him a particularly attractive longshot to outrun his odds in the nightcap.
