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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Saturday, February 7, 2026 card at Tampa Bay Downs features a premier lineup highlighted by the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a critical stepping stone on the road to the Triple Crown. Supporting the feature are the Suncoast Stakes for three-year-old fillies, the Pelican Stakes for sprinters, and the Minaret Stakes. The card has drawn top-tier connections, including trainers Todd Pletcher, Brad Cox, and Chad Brown, alongside elite jockeys like Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat, who have shipped in to challenge the local colony.
The forecast for Oldsmar anticipates ideal racing weather with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. The main dirt track is expected to be fast. While the Tampa dirt surface is often sandy and cuppy, it is typically maintained to be tight and fast for major stakes days. The turf course rail is set at 12 feet, which should result in a firm course.
On the dirt, inside paths are generally advantageous, especially in sprints like the Pelican and Minaret Stakes. Horses securing position near the rail often outperform those hung wide on the turns. In two-turn dirt routes, speed carries well, though a hot pace can bring late runners into the mix. On the turf at 1 1/16 miles with the 12-foot rail setting, outside posts (8 and higher) present a disadvantage due to the short run into the first turn, requiring horses to use significant early energy to clear or drop back.
Race 1 Analysis
The opening claiming event on the turf features a moderate pace scenario. Mad Dog N Joe from the rail and Spanish Noble from the outside are likely to show early interest, but the tempo should remain manageable, allowing stalkers to find good position.
Uncle Truly is the primary contender in this field. With Antonio Gallardo aboard for trainer Juan Arriagada, the gelding drops into a claiming tag that suits his ability. He possesses the tactical speed necessary to navigate traffic in a large field. Fidelightcayut is another key threat, possessing a strong closing kick that fits this class level, provided he can overcome the challenge of the number 9 post.
Secondary choices include Growth Capital, a horse with back class who could be dangerous if he rediscovers his old form under Samy Camacho. Smart Striker serves as a reliable option for the exotic spots, consistently earning checks for the Gerald Bennett barn.
Race 2 Analysis
This maiden claiming sprint is expected to feature a hot pace. Yes I’m Jess from the rail and Bench Boy likely will gun for the lead immediately, ensuring a swift opening quarter.
R Delray stands out as the clear horse to beat for connections Saffie Joseph Jr. and Irad Ortiz Jr. The outside post in this sprint setup is advantageous, allowing the rider to assess the break and stalk the inside speed effectively. Oh’ What a Day is the logical alternative, representing the powerful Gerald Bennett stable and expected to improve in his second start.
Bench Boy is a secondary choice who draws well and has enough early speed to remain a factor throughout. Uncle Zeb, dropping in class and adding blinkers, offers potential value as a longshot who could wake up with the equipment change.
Race 3 Analysis
This turf route features a full field where veteran Drama Chorus will attempt to wire the group. Pressure from Peace Not War and Surprise Package should ensure an honest pace, preventing the leader from stealing the race too easily.
Drama Chorus remains a course specialist and a key contender. Despite his age, his front-running style makes him dangerous if he settles. Royal Luck is the main danger to the top selection, benefiting from a pace setup that should flatter his closing kick and the services of Antonio Gallardo.
Create Trouble is a secondary consideration. If he draws in from the eligible list, the class drop makes him a significant player. Surprise Package, moving to a new jockey and facing slightly easier company than in recent starts, rounds out the main group of interests.
Race 4 Analysis
The Minaret Stakes features a compact but high-quality field of six. The pace scenario predicts a duel between Mystic Lake and Admiral Hopper, potentially setting the race up for a stalker if they engage too aggressively.
Mystic Lake is the class of the field and the top contender. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat riding, her graded stakes experience surpasses her rivals. Even with pace pressure, her quality makes her the one to beat. Ms. Bucchero is the most dangerous challenger, known for her affinity for this track and a devastating late kick that will be potent if the leaders tire.
Admiral Hopper is a secondary choice who possesses speed but may be compromised by the presence of the favorite. Sandy’s Garden is a consistent mare likely to pick up a share, though she faces a class test against the top two.
Race 5 Analysis
The Suncoast Stakes, a Kentucky Oaks qualifier, presents a competitive pace scenario. Tremont Tammy has rail speed, but Pletcher runners Zany and Kadabra will ensure the front end is contested, likely benefiting a stalker.
Life of Joy is the top selection and a budding star for Brad Cox. Flavien Prat’s presence suggests intent, and her ability to rate makes her well-suited for the mile and 40-yard distance. Zany is the primary alternative, working well for the Todd Pletcher barn and fitting the profile of past winners of this event.
Kadabra serves as a strong secondary option for Pletcher, potentially offering better value than her stablemate. Tremont Tammy will attempt to take the field gate to wire but faces significant pace pressure that may leave her vulnerable late.
Race 6 Analysis
In this maiden special weight on dirt, the pace will be dictated by Emerging Market from the inside and the Pletcher duo of Powershift and Make My Day. The fractions should be brisk.
Emerging Market for Chad Brown is a formidable contender. Brown’s dirt maidens at Tampa are often well-meant, and the inside draw is favorable. Powershift is the key rival, with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for Todd Pletcher, signaling a maximum effort is expected.
Municipal is a secondary choice worth noting. Despite an outside draw, the Saffie Joseph trainee is improving. Make My Day, the second Pletcher entrant with Samy Camacho, is a logical use in the lower rungs of the exotics.
Race 7 Analysis
This turf allowance is loaded with speed, specifically from Princess Bettina and Explosive Lady. This competitive pace on the front end sets up favorably for closers.
City Girl (FR) is the horse to beat. The Chad Brown trainee should settle mid-pack under Flavien Prat and unleash a superior turn of foot in the lane. Souper Williwaw is a major threat, possessing the class to compete here and gaining the services of Irad Ortiz Jr., though she must navigate a wide post.
Minty is a consistent secondary choice for Mark Casse who rarely runs a poor race. Princess Bettina is dangerous if she can clear the field, but the presence of other speed horses makes her task difficult.
Race 8 Analysis
A muddy pace scenario defines this dirt sprint, with veteran speedball Warrior’s Pride and Roar of the Beast both possessing significant early foot. A fast pace is all but guaranteed.
Roar of the Beast is the top contender. The Saffie Joseph trainee has the versatility to sit just off the lead and pounce, avoiding a suicidal duel. Kirin is the main danger, arriving in good form for Jose D’Angelo and drawing a favorable middle post.
Warrior’s Pride remains a knockout threat if he can shake loose, though his age is a concern against younger rivals. Life Is Precious is a steady secondary option who typically earns a check at this level.
Race 9 Analysis
This maiden turf route for three-year-old fillies is expected to have a slow to moderate pace as the young horses stretch out. The Chad Brown barn holds a very strong hand.
Tax Holiday (GB) is the primary contender. Drawn on the rail with Flavien Prat, this European import fits the high-percentage profile of Brown’s turf debutantes. Libero, the stablemate ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., is the clear alternative and equally dangerous.
Celebrity Warrior (IRE) for Todd Pletcher is a secondary choice with a pedigree that demands respect. Mid Summer for Shug McGaughey is likely to attract attention but may need a race to reach peak fitness.
Race 10 Analysis
The Pelican Stakes is known for blistering speed, and this renewal is no exception. Concrete Glory and Track Mate are both incredibly fast, ensuring a sub-22 opening quarter.
Concrete Glory is the horse to beat. He is a horse for the course in peak form for Saffie Joseph, capable of winning on the lead or from a stalking position. Track Mate is the classiest rival, shipping in for George Arnold with the ability to run down the leaders if the pace collapses.
Chrome Ghost is a secondary choice who consistently fires at Tampa and belongs in the mix. Wound Up offers value as a closer who could pick up pieces if the top two engage in a destructive duel.
Race 11 Analysis
The Sam F. Davis Stakes features a legitimate pace. Confessional for Brad Cox will show speed from the inside, while Renegade and The Puma ensure he will not be lonely on the front end.
Renegade is the top contender, fitting the profile of Todd Pletcher’s past derby prospects. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he should secure a perfect stalking trip. Confessional is the primary threat, as the Brad Cox shipper has the speed to be elusive if he can clear the field early.
Epic Desire provides a solid backup option for the Pletcher barn. The Puma is a secondary choice who has shown flashes of talent and could improve at a price in this spot.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Irad Ortiz Jr. is the rider to watch for the premier stakes races. His presence on horses for barns like Pletcher and Joseph often signals a maximum effort. When he rides a horse that typically carries a local jockey, it is a significant positive angle. Flavien Prat is the go-to rider for Chad Brown on turf and Brad Cox on dirt, excelling in route races where patience is required. Local leaders Samy Camacho and Antonio Gallardo offer excellent value in non-stakes races, often navigating the nuances of the Tampa oval better than shipping riders.
Trainer Todd Pletcher historically dominates the three-year-old route stakes at Tampa, making his entrants in the Sam F. Davis and Suncoast automatic contenders. Gerald Bennett is the premier barn for claiming and lower-level allowance races, with horses that are consistently fit and well-spotted. Chad Brown is the dominant force in turf maiden and allowance contests, and any entry he provides on the grass must be respected.
