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Tampa Bay Downs returns to live racing on Saturday, January 31, 2026, featuring a spectacular nine-race card headlined by two Grade III turf stakes events. The Tampa Bay Stakes and Endeavour Stakes anchor the afternoon program, attracting elite talent from Hall of Fame trainers Chad Brown, Mark Casse, and Bill Mott. This 46th day of the 2025-2026 meet promises competitive racing across all divisions, from bottom-level maiden claimers to graded stakes competition.
Post time begins at 12:25 PM EST with nine races concluding at 4:25 PM. The featured stakes races will showcase championship-caliber horses competing on firm turf over 1 1/16-mile routes, testing both class and stamina.
Weather and Track Conditions
Saturday’s weather presents challenging conditions with temperatures reaching only 56°F during racing hours and a low of 44°F. A 57% chance of precipitation with possible showers throughout the afternoon creates uncertain surface management challenges. Wind speeds of approximately 12 mph from variable directions may impact pace dynamics, particularly in turf races.
The dirt track should maintain its characteristic fast rating despite cooler temperatures and moisture concerns. Both turf stakes races will run without temporary rail installation, providing full width of the seven-eighths mile course. The firm turf rating creates a fair surface that rewards sustained speed and finishing kick equally.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Tampa Bay Downs demonstrates remarkably balanced racing characteristics on the dirt surface with minimal inherent bias favoring any particular post position or running style in dirt sprints. Posts 1, 7, and 11 each produce approximately 14-16% winners in sprint races, indicating essentially random distribution rather than systematic advantage.
Dirt route races show slight favoritism toward inside posts, with post 1 winning approximately 15% compared to outside posts at 9%. This differential remains within normal variance and reflects the natural advantage of saving ground around two turns.
Turf racing presents more pronounced positional biases. Inside posts carry significant advantages on Tampa’s seven-eighths mile grass course, especially in larger fields where traffic concerns intensify. Pace scenarios frequently prove more influential than post position, with late-running types gaining substantial advantages when confronting fields packed with speed horses.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000 | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 12:25 PM
Pace Analysis: Multiple speed horses will battle for early positioning, creating aggressive fractions. The six-furlong distance creates natural pace pressure favoring horses positioned within 3-4 lengths of the early lead through opening quarter-mile.
Key Contenders:
- Bernardo’s Legacy (9/2): Experience advantage with 31 career starts and consistent efforts at this classification. Proven ability to secure forward position without contested early effort.
- Senory Money (5/2): Sonny Leon’s elite riding credentials elevate this 4-year-old gelding. 80% in-the-money rate demonstrates consistency despite maiden status.
Secondary Choices:
- First Act (8/1): Recent form improvement with 62% in-the-money finishes and $60,689 career earnings suggesting previous higher competition.
- Nyikos (2/1): Samuel Marin’s mount with recent second-place finish at this exact condition, demonstrating current form and course familiarity.
Longshots:
- Playing With Fire (6/1): Competitive recent form at Gulfstream Park; first start since gelding operation may produce improvement.
Race 2: Claiming $16,000 | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 12:55 PM
Pace Analysis: Seven-furlong distance creates natural pace relaxation compared to sprints, allowing horses to establish rhythm. Pace pressure typically softens leaders through stretch run, favoring stalkers positioned 2-3 lengths off the lead through moderate fractions.
Key Contenders:
- Steam Powered (7/2): Tactical versatility and proven form at this exact condition. Main-track-only designation suggests return to dirt after turf entries.
- Silver Ore (4/1): Progressive maiden winner with recent victory at $25,000 level. Samuel Marin’s assignment indicates serious winning intentions.
Secondary Choices:
- Double Echo (6/1): Consistent form with favorable post draw enabling ideal tracking position.
- Kantharos Jr (123 lbs): Carries topweight but demonstrates highest form figures for this classification.
Longshots:
- My Satisfaction (10/1): Tactical speed with jockey upgrade suggesting value potential.
Race 3: Claiming $8,000 Fillies/Mares | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 1:25 PM
Pace Analysis: Fourteen-horse sprint produces contested early fractions with multiple fillies showing early speed designations. Large field creates natural pace pressure; closers face difficult prospects unless pace collapse occurs.
Key Contenders:
- Hola Hermosa (7/2): Progressive form with elite jockey Samuel Marin. Recent victory at this exact condition provides significant confidence. Fast-leads profile positions favorably.
- Chill Bean (4/1): Class relief from higher levels with competitive breeding. Fastest-leader designation controls anticipated fractions.
Secondary Choices:
- Baha Secret (9/2): Strong recent form with 71% in-the-money rate. Fast-leads profile fits pace scenario.
- Gold Stamp (6/1): Consistent form at 58% in-the-money rate with Sonny Leon’s services.
Longshots:
- Spatula (6/1): Drew into field as also-eligible; winning credentials from competitive efforts.
Race 4: Claiming $8,000 | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 1:55 PM
Pace Analysis: Twelve-horse sprint with multiple forward tactical speed creates competitive fractions. Non-winners-of-three classification produces tighter competition requiring positioning through opening quarter-mile.
Key Contenders:
- Pedro Nunes (3/2): Favorable inside post draw with tactical running style enabling trip flexibility. Recent form suggests current fitness.
- Harper’s Afleet: Proven Tampa Bay Downs form with Sonny Leon’s elite riding credentials and trainer Jon Arnett’s serious winning intentions.
Secondary Choices:
- God With Us (4/1): Class indicators suggest competitive ability with favorable running style for pace scenario.
- Awesome Fantasy (5/1): Recent form improvement from class relief provides value opportunity.
Longshots:
- Super Tiz: Also-eligible status creates uncertainty; competitive form when entered with favorable post draw.
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $25,000 | 6 Furlongs Dirt | 2:25 PM
Pace Analysis: Eleven-horse maiden sprint presents wide-open pace scenario with inexperienced horses showing inconsistent early speed patterns. Six-furlong distance allows little margin for positional error.
Key Contenders:
- They Call Me Sue: Breeding and connections suggest competitive ability. Samuel Marin’s assignment adds substantial value.
- Giggity: (Veterinarian scratch concerns) Competitive debut effort suggesting ability for this classification with Sonny Leon’s mount assignment.
Secondary Choices:
- Rocco’s Spirit: Breeding pattern indicates dirt sprint aptitude with established local partnership.
- Judy Chop: Gaddiel Martinez ride for trainer Kevin Rice combines for moderate statistics.
Longshots:
- Jazzerator: Breeding suggests potential despite racing inexperience.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight Fillies | 6.5 Furlongs Dirt | 2:55 PM
Pace Analysis: Thirteen-horse maiden sprint features fillies from elite connections. Half-furlong extension tests stamina while maintaining speed requirements. Large field produces natural pace pressure benefiting strategic positioning.
Key Contenders:
- Current Yield (3/1): Chad Brown trainee with elite connections rarely unsuccessful at maiden special weight level. Running style allows tactical flexibility.
- Sammytrinadamo (4/1): Local connections with proven Tampa form. Competitive debut effort suggests improvement forthcoming.
Secondary Choices:
- Princess Vekoma (9/2): Debut performance with breeding suggesting dirt sprint aptitude.
- Elegant Charm (8/1): Mark Casse trainee with Hall of Fame connections and Sonny Leon’s elite riding credentials.
Longshots:
- Sorokin (5/1): International breeding suggests considerable ability; second start often produces improvement.
Race 7: Tampa Bay Stakes (Grade III) | 1 1/16 Miles Turf | 3:25 PM
Pace Analysis: Eight-horse turf stakes develops moderate fractions as tactical runners establish positioning without excessive pressure. Firm turf rating rewards sustained speed; horses positioned 4-6 lengths off moderate early fractions gain ideal advantages for stretch drives.
Key Contenders:
- Win for the Money (7/5): Grade I Woodbine Mile winner brings championship credentials with Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse and elite jockey Sonny Leon. December return shows competitive effort with improvement anticipated.
- Quatrocento (5/2): Competitive graded stakes form with tactical running style. Post 3 draw provides advantageous turf positioning.
Secondary Choices:
- Tom’s Magic (3/1): Progressive form pattern from elite connections with tactical versatility fitting anticipated pace scenario.
- Simulate (6/1): Bill Mott trainee making seasonal debut with recent allowance victory at Tampa Bay Downs. First-time blinkers suggest anticipated focus improvement.
Longshots:
- Britain’s Kitten (8/1): Experience advantage with 7-year-old seasoning; late-running style fits pace scenario.
- Innately Good (4/1): Recent form improvement justifies consideration.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming | 7 Furlongs Dirt | 3:55 PM
Pace Analysis: Eleven-horse allowance sprint presents competitive pace with multiple tactical runners. Seven-furlong distance creates balanced test between speed and stamina. Allowance optional claiming conditions attract improving horses seeking class advancement.
Key Contenders:
- Disruptor (6/5): Todd Pletcher trainee with overwhelming class advantages, dropping dramatically from Grade I competition. Rajiv Maragh rides; Pletcher’s success rate with class-dropping runners suggests serious winning intentions.
- Little Thunder (5/2): Progressive challenger with three consecutive victories demonstrating improvement pattern. Recent maiden graduation suggests continued advancement.
Secondary Choices:
- Just Relax (12/1): Breeding and connections suggest competitive ability. Samuel Marin’s assignment indicates serious intentions with January Trainer of the Month.
- P Four (10/1): Recent allowance effort with competitive form.
Longshots:
- Jades Jay (10/1): Consistent form with Sonny Leon’s assignment indicating serious intentions.
- Swaggish (8/1): Experience advantage with tactical running style potential.
Race 9: Endeavour Stakes (Grade III) | 1 1/16 Miles Turf | 4:25 PM
Pace Analysis: Eleven-horse turf stakes presents tactical pace scenario with multiple versatile running styles. Firm turf rating and 1 1/16-mile distance reward sustained speed and tactical positioning. Large field creates positioning challenges requiring skilled navigation for clean trips.
Key Contenders:
- Candy Quest (3/1): Mark Casse trainee seeking breakthrough graded stakes victory with 3-for-9 record including Grade III triumph. Sonny Leon rides from post 1; closing style fits anticipated pace scenario for sustained homestretch drive.
- Al Jafara (9/2): Chad Brown trainee with championship connections seeking fourth Endeavour victory in six years. Great Britain-bred showing exceptional turf breeding; limited experience offset by Brown’s Endeavour dominance.
Secondary Choices:
- Public Defender (5/1): Four-race winning streak in 2025 with Grade III Suwannee River Stakes competitiveness. Tactical speed allows forward positioning.
- Aussie Girl (7/2): International credentials with graded stakes experience and consistent form.
Longshots:
- Scythian (15/1): Bill Mott trainee with Grade II Miss Grillo Stakes credentials. Mott won consecutive Endeavours 2005-06; 15/1 price creates substantial value.
- Belle of Rights (10/1): Consistent form with Claude McGaughey III training and Samuel Marin riding.
Key Jockey Insights
Samuel Marin continues dominating Tampa Bay Downs jockey colony with 53 victories through January 30, leading the standings. His 19% win rate and 53% in-the-money percentage demonstrate elite consistency. Recent hot streak includes five-victory performances establishing him as defending champion.
Sonny Leon brings championship credentials combining 24% win rate with Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse partnership. Their collaboration produces remarkable success including Grade I Woodbine Mile victory. Leon’s tactical versatility allows optimal positioning regardless of pace scenarios.
Daniel Centeno represents track’s all-time winningest rider with 1,569 victories at Tampa Bay Downs. The 53-year-old veteran’s 59 track stakes victories establish another record, reflecting sustained championship-caliber excellence.
Key Trainer Insights
Mark Casse brings Hall of Fame credentials with 4,131 career victories and 268 graded stakes wins. His 16 Sovereign Awards and development of championship talent create confidence in his strategic placements. Win for the Money and Candy Quest represent genuine winning threats based on Casse’s training prowess.
Chad Brown seeks fourth Endeavour Stakes victory in six years with Al Jafara. The reigning Eclipse Award winner demonstrates remarkable success identifying talent early, with Brown rarely deploying horses beyond their current capabilities.
Bill Mott brings Hall of Fame credentials understanding Tampa turf course requirements. His 2002 Tampa Bay Stakes victory with Boastful and back-to-back Endeavours demonstrate strategic expertise. Simulate’s first-time blinkers suggest anticipated focus improvement.
Todd Pletcher enters Disruptor after Grade I competition, with Hall of Fame trainer’s record seven Sam F. Davis Stakes victories establishing deep understanding of Oldsmar racing patterns.
