Posted inTracks

Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Mahoning Valley – Racing News and Analysis for March 23, 2026

No CommentsPosted inTracks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

Mahoning Valley offers an eight race Monday card made up entirely of dirt sprints and one mile routes, with a strong Ohio bred flavor and several compact, competitive claiming and allowance events. The program is anchored by affordable claiming races at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs, a mid level Ohio bred allowance route for fillies and mares, and a maiden special weight for Ohio bred three year old fillies to close the card.

The race conditions match the public race cards, with races 1, 4, 5, 7, and 8 restricted to Ohio bred runners or Ohio preference, and the middle races open starter or open claiming. Field sizes are mostly between 5 and 11, with several short fields that will concentrate wagering and make pace dynamics especially important.

Recent Mahoning Valley form from many of the entrants appears in regional past performance databases, indicating that today's races are largely rematches among familiar rivals at similar claiming and allowance levels. Several horses come in off scratches for veterinary or steward reasons in February and early March, which is relevant for assessing current form and reliability.

Overall, this is a typical late winter Mahoning Valley card where barn patterns, rider intent, and day of track condition tend to drive value more than raw figures alone. The combination of Ohio bred conditions and starter allowance structures creates several races where class drops or subtle condition moves can be strong wagering angles.

Weather and Track Conditions

Regional March forecasts for northeastern Ohio point to cool, wet conditions, with temperatures near 7 degrees Celsius (mid 40s Fahrenheit) and moderate rain expected on March 23. Rainfall projections around 10 to 12 millimeters for the day suggest the track is likely to be wet, somewhere in the good to muddy range, and could downgrade to sloppy if showers are heavy around post time.

Historical March weather for Mahoning County shows that similar days with steady rain often produce sealed, moisture rich dirt surfaces that favor horses comfortable on off tracks. Without an official track condition report for this specific card, you should assume at least some moisture in the surface and be prepared to upgrade horses with proven wet track or winter Mahoning form once scratches and conditions are posted.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Public statistics for Mahoning Valley indicate that the dirt sprint course (5 1/2 to 6 furlongs) tends to be fair to mildly speed favoring, with inside and pace pressers winning more than deep closers, especially on sealed or wet surfaces. In typical recent meets, early speed and first flight stalkers from posts 1 through 5 have had a slightly higher win rate at 6 furlongs than wide, deep closers breaking from the far outside.

At one mile on dirt, Mahoning Valley has shown a modest preference for horses saving ground from inside to mid posts, with horses in the two to five slots often getting the best blend of ground saving and clean run positions. On wet days, the bias can shift further towards speed or tactically placed runners close to the rail, as kickback and tiring conditions make it harder for late runners to make long sustained bids.

Given today's likely wet surface, you should tilt slightly toward horses with tactical speed and riders who are comfortable putting horses in the race early, while being cautious about low priced closers who need a meltdown to be effective.

Race 1 – Claiming, Ohio Bred Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs (12:15 PM)

With a compact five horse field, the pace scenario is straightforward and will hinge on how aggressively Mobil Memory (1) and Whiskey Diamond (5) are ridden from the gate. Both have sprint speed in their recent form lines, and in a field this small there is a good chance one clears and the other sits a pressing trip just off the leader.

Olympic Wings (3) and National Diamond (4) project as mid pack stalkers who can sit just behind the speed and look to pounce turning for home, while Cause Of Love (2) is the most likely back marker in the first part of the race. On a wet surface that may favor early speed, the inside draw for Mobil Memory (1) is an advantage if she breaks cleanly, but the scratch history noted in the watch list raises form questions that slightly temper confidence.

Key Contenders: Mobil Memory (1) comes in as a six year old Ohio bred mare with competitive claiming class and an inside draw that should allow her to secure the rail and either set or sit just behind the pace. Whiskey Diamond (5) is another six year old mare with back class at similar claiming levels, and her scratch history in February out of a starter event could indicate minor issues or cautious management rather than serious problems.

Secondary Choices: National Diamond (4), a five year old mare trained by Nestor Rivera, looks like a classic stalking type who can sit third in the early stages and attempt to capitalize if the primary pace pair soften each other. Olympic Wings (3) is another five year old with mid pack style and enough tactical speed to keep contact with a modest pace.

Longshots: Cause Of Love (2), a ten year old mare, is the elder of the group and appears to be past her peak but still capable of grinding along late for minor awards when races fall apart.

Race 2 – Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs (12:43 PM)

This seven horse sprint features several horses with early speed, notably Smokin Hot (2), Tonight (4), and Boudin (6), which should ensure an honest to fast early pace. Blue Max (1) from the rail has enough gate speed to protect position but often prefers to stalk just behind the leaders rather than duel through hot fractions.

Unpredictable Bay (5) and Time The Avenger (7) generally do their best running from just off the pace or mid pack, and could benefit if the front line knocks heads into the far turn. I'll Figure It Out (3), a lighter weighted seven year old, is eligible to get a rail saving trip behind the speed and may be in the right spot if the front runners falter late.

Key Contenders: Smokin Hot (2), trained by Justin Radosevich, looks like one of the main pace players with strong early foot at this level and an aggressive rider in Jose Bracho who is familiar with Mahoning's sprint dynamics. Blue Max (1), an eight year old gelding with solid claiming experience, draws the rail with a rider who often uses inside trips to maximum effect at Mahoning Valley.

Secondary Choices: Unpredictable Bay (5) for Nestor Rivera has been a consistent mid level claimer and often runs his race from a stalking position, which suits this projected pace scenario. Tonight (4) is a younger four year old with upside and early speed, ridden and trained by the Radosevich team, and could be part of a one two punch if he and Smokin Hot (2) avoid a destructive duel.

Longshots: I'll Figure It Out (3) is capable of clunking up for a minor share if the pace proves hotter than expected and the inner rail is fair. Time The Avenger (7) shows up in the scratch watch due to a canceled race in February, but that is not a negative in itself and he may be a sneaky late running piece if the track plays more evenly than anticipated. Boudin (6) has speed and a high percentage local barn, but his form can be in and out, and he may be the most vulnerable piece of the pace picture if he cannot clear or sit a comfortable trip outside the other speed.

Race 3 – Claiming, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (1:11 PM)

Hazard Pay (3) and Rock Star Parking (1) bring tactical speed that should ensure a steady early tempo, with Loaded Once More (6) and Divine Fashion (4) not far behind. Bo Runkle (2) and A Kiss For Khozan (5) are more comfortable settling just off the pace and making middle move rallies.

Given the modest field size of six, there is limited room for deep closing heroics, so position into the far turn will be critical. Hazard Pay (3), despite recent veterinary scratches, still projects as one of the primary pace influences and a potential control speed if she breaks sharply.

Key Contenders: Rock Star Parking (1), an eight year old mare for the Juan Pablo Silva barn, has the rail and the services of Luis Batista, who rides this track well and tends to work out ground saving trips. Hazard Pay (3), a four year old filly, appears in the scratch watch with vet scratches from a lower claiming level earlier in March, but she has enough early foot to be prominent if she is sound and ready today.

Secondary Choices: Divine Fashion (4), a seven year old mare from the Bailey barn, pairs with a capable local rider and should get a stalking trip in the second flight. A Kiss For Khozan (5) offers mid pack style and has run competitive races at similar levels and distances, making her a logical candidate for the exotics but perhaps a bit pace dependent for the win slot. Loaded Once More (6) is another veteran mare with past success and a rider who knows how to navigate traffic at Mahoning, adding depth to the middle of the field.

Longshots: Bo Runkle (2) may be overlooked in the wagering but has run some sneaky good efforts when getting a clean trip behind honest fractions.

Race 4 – Claiming, Ohio Bred Non Winners of Four, 6 Furlongs (1:39 PM)

This seven horse sprint presents a competitive pace picture with Stormed Out (3), Tahlequah Joe (2), and National Story (7) all showing enough speed to be forward early. Jim's River Runner (1) and Redden (5) are typically just off the pace, while Mor Crafty (4) and Drill's Boy (6) can sit mid pack and look for a late run.

Given the presence of multiple pace elements from both inside and outside posts, expect an honest, possibly contested pace into the far turn. On a wet track, inside speed like Stormed Out (3) and Jim's River Runner (1) can be dangerous if they secure rail trips without intense pressure.

Key Contenders: National Story (7) is listed as a probable short price based on offshore early lines and regional form, with solid recent efforts at this condition and distance. Stormed Out (3) has recent Mahoning form at 6 furlongs on wet tracks, including races where he chased or set the pace and held on for checks.

Secondary Choices: Redden (5), a six year old gelding from the Cline barn, has hit the board against similar company and can be a strong stalking presence in the second flight. Tahlequah Joe (2) is another pace factor with enough speed to contest the front, but may end up in a compromising duel if the inside riders are aggressive. Jim's River Runner (1) can surprise with a sharp effort if he breaks better than typical and takes advantage of the rail on a wet track.

Longshots: Mor Crafty (4) is lightly regarded on some early lines but can sit mid pack and take advantage if the pace collapses, especially if his rider can keep him off the rail and out of heavy kickback. Drill's Boy (6) has back class and at least one strong prior effort at this distance and track, but his recent form has been inconsistent, making him a fringe exotics player.

Race 5 – Claiming, Ohio Bred, 6 Furlongs (2:07 PM)

This is one of the more complex pace scenarios on the card, with multiple potential front runners and pressers in Mr Loooch (1), Aint No Bandleader (2), Dark Vader (4), Party Pooper (5), and Gunner Gabriel (11). The inside pair, Mr Loooch (1) and Aint No Bandleader (2), are especially key, as either could send hard to protect position, forcing outside speed to make tactical decisions early.

Mid pack stalkers like Thedayofthegrey (3), Envelope Please (6), Spirit Of Akron (7), Color Bearer (8), Elliot The Dragon (9), and C V Jersey Bee (10) will be looking to sit behind a likely hot pace and grind into the race through the far turn. On a wet track with many pace elements, this race has high potential for a closer or off pace runner to produce a strong late run if the early fractions are contested.

Key Contenders: Spirit Of Akron (7), from the Juan Pablo Silva barn with Deshawn Parker up, looks like a key off pace player with enough tactical speed to avoid being completely out the back while still benefiting from a contested early pace. Envelope Please (6), trained by Justin Radosevich, has been in good form at similar distances and has several recent efforts on wet Mahoning tracks where he finished strongly behind pace setups similar to today's projection.

Secondary Choices: C V Jersey Bee (10) appears regularly in regional past performances as a horse who runs well on wet Mahoning surfaces, including wins or strong placings at this same trip. Mr Loooch (1) and Aint No Bandleader (2) are both threats from the inside if the rail is good and they are able to control or moderate the pace rather than engage in a hard duel.

Longshots: Dark Vader (4) is an eleven year old gelding with a long resume, and while he may not be at his peak, his experience and occasional strong effort at this level make him a live longshot if the pace is not as hot as expected. Party Pooper (5) can disrupt the pace scenario if his rider goes aggressively early, but his finishing ability may be limited if forced to duel throughout. Color Bearer (8), Elliot The Dragon (9), and Gunner Gabriel (11) all offer some appeal as longshot exotics pieces, particularly Elliot the Dragon (9) and Gunner Gabriel (11), who have shown the ability to make late runs with the right pace setup.

Race 6 – Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs (2:35 PM)

Ramsey (1), French Onion (6), and Stomping Moon (7) are the primary early pace players, while Doctor Wu (3) and Blue Cheese Olive (5) are likely to sit in behind the speed. Major Tom (2), Reinvest (4), and El Muchacho Alegre (8) all have some tactical speed but may prefer to sit mid pack and make one run.

With several horses coming off scratches including Major Tom (2), Reinvest (4), Blue Cheese Olive (5), and French Onion (6), recent form lines need to be assessed carefully before committing to a heavy single. The overall pace projection is honest, with a possibility that inside speed like Ramsey (1) takes advantage of the rail.

Key Contenders: Ramsey (1), breaking from the rail under Jose Bracho, has the tactical speed and class to either set or sit just off the pace in this starter allowance spot. Doctor Wu (3) from the Zielinski barn is a steady performer at this level with the ability to sit in the second flight and make a sustained run through the lane.

Secondary Choices: Reinvest (4) and Major Tom (2) were scratched by veterinarians from a higher claiming race on March 12, suggesting either minor physical issues or conservative handling, but both have class and prior races that fit well at this starter level. French Onion (6) and Blue Cheese Olive (5) both show up in prior starter optional claiming races at other circuits, and their presence here signals that their connections view this as a realistic win spot after steward related scratches at Sunland in February.

Longshots: Stomping Moon (7) is a capable gate horse with early speed, trained by Jay Bernardini, and can hang around for a piece if the early pace is not too punishing. El Muchacho Alegre (8) is an up and coming four year old who could take a step forward in this starter spot and should not be dismissed entirely, especially for deeper exotics.

Race 7 – Allowance, Ohio Preference, 1 Mile (3:03 PM)

At one mile, the likely pace is set by Cowgirl Chic (4) and Unchained Spirit (2), with Total Luna Eclipse (7) and Private Mo (6) able to sit right behind them. The Money Monkey (1) and Pincara (3) can be closer in a small field route, and Tale Of Lemonbelle (5) may drop back early and make a late run with her light weight.

The dynamics here are subtle, because none of these runners are pure front running burners, and the race could be decided by which rider decides to be aggressive early. A modest but honest pace is likely, with tactical positioning entering the first turn at a premium.

Key Contenders: Total Luna Eclipse (7) has had several scratches in February as also eligible or steward decisions, but when she does run, she brings a solid allowance level profile and the ability to sit just off the leaders at a mile. Cowgirl Chic (4), from the Eric Reed barn, is a four year old filly with enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed and the stamina to see out the mile at this non winners of two level.

Secondary Choices: The Money Monkey (1) is a five year old mare with experience and some back class, and the rail draw could allow her to sit a ground saving trip just behind the leaders and look for room turning for home. Pincara (3) has shown ability and may be ready for a forward move with the local rider, giving her a chance to hit the board if she can stay in contact early. Private Mo (6) is a three year old with upside and will carry 118 pounds, which could help at the mile distance while sitting in the first or second flight. Unchained Spirit (2) is another three year old who can be part of the pace and is worth including in exotics if the board offers value.

Longshots: Tale Of Lemonbelle (5) is lightly weighted and may drop back early but could pick up pieces late if the pace ends up hotter than expected or the inside horses fade.

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight, Ohio Preference, 5 1/2 Furlongs (3:31 PM)

Maiden special weight races for three year old fillies at this distance tend to feature several inexperienced but naturally quick runners. Smokin Hot Chick (2) and She Grins (4) project as likely early pace players, with Blondieness (1) and Al Mustaneera (6) able to sit just off them from their inside and mid posts.

Divine Silence (3), High Dollar Dolly (5), and Chidera (7) will need to show enough tactical speed to avoid being left with too much to do in the stretch, especially on a potentially wet, speed leaning track. Expect a lively first quarter as riders look to secure position into the bend.

Key Contenders: Smokin Hot Chick (2), from the Silva barn with Batista riding, looks like a major contender with a strong sprint pedigree and a connection profile that typically performs well in local maiden special weights. Al Mustaneera (6), ridden by Jose Bracho and trained by Andrew McKeever, has the profile of a filly who could improve sharply on debut or second start, especially if she has been working well and is fit for this 5 1/2 furlong trip.

Secondary Choices: Blondieness (1) has the rail and will need to break sharply to avoid being shuffled back, but if she leaves the gate cleanly she can sit a ground saving trip and be dangerous turning for home. She Grins (4), with Angel Diaz aboard, is a likely pace factor and could prove hard to reel in if she is allowed to dictate terms without serious pressure. Divine Silence (3) offers some appeal as a stalking or pressing type, potentially sitting third or fourth early and aiming to wear down tiring leaders late. Chidera (7) from the outermost post may get overlooked but could get a nice outside stalking trip if she breaks with the pack.

Longshots: High Dollar Dolly (5) is trained by Michelle Elliott and ridden by Chelsey Keiser, and while she may not be a top win candidate on paper, she can be a useful longshot for trifectas if she improves second out or handles the track particularly well.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mahoning Valley jockey statistics show that riders like Jose Bracho, Luis Batista, Deshawn Parker, and several of the named riders today are consistent local performers with strong win and in the money percentages at this track. Their mounts deserve a second look when sorting tosses from contenders, especially in races with tricky pace dynamics.

Bracho rides Smokin Hot (2) in the second race, Dark Vader (4) in the fifth, Ramsey (1) in the sixth, and Al Mustaneera (6) in the eighth, giving him several live mounts on the card. Batista has important mounts including Rock Star Parking (1) in the third, French Onion (6) in the sixth, and Pincara (3) and Smokin Hot Chick (2) in the later races, highlighting his potential impact on the card.

Deshawn Parker's mount Spirit Of Akron (7) in the fifth race is a key player in that competitive field and his ability to time off pace runs at Mahoning is well documented. Riders like Angel Diaz, Chelsey Keiser, and Fernando Salazar Becerra will also influence early pace in their sprints, and their tactical decisions out of the gate will shape bias perceptions as the day unfolds.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Local and regional trainers such as Justin Radosevich, Juan Pablo Silva, Richard Zielinski, Robert Cline, Nestor Rivera, and others have strong Mahoning Valley histories and their barns typically come ready in these winter and early spring meets. Radosevich appears in multiple races with Smokin Hot (2) in the second, Envelope Please (6) in the fifth, and other entries, and his runners are often well spotted at realistic claiming and starter levels.

Juan Pablo Silva's stable has been particularly effective with Ohio bred claimers and allowance horses, and his runners today include Rock Star Parking (1) in the third, Spirit Of Akron (7) in the fifth, Blue Cheese Olive (5) and French Onion (6) in the sixth, and Smokin Hot Chick (2) in the eighth. These horses generally merit inclusion on tickets, especially when combined with top local riders.

Richard Zielinski sends out Olympic Wings (3) and A Kiss For Khozan (5) earlier and Doctor Wu (3) along with Aint No Bandleader (2) and Dark Vader (4) later, and his horses often show consistent form at Mahoning in these claiming and starter ranks. Trainers like Robert Cline, Nestor Rivera, and Eric Reed are also well represented and have live runners scattered across the card, particularly in the fourth, fifth, and seventh races.

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback