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Today’s Keeneland card marks the closing day of the Fall Meet, featuring 10 races with three graded stakes highlighting the program. Weather conditions are favorable with clear skies, temperatures in the low 60s, and firm track conditions expected for both the main track (fast) and turf course (firm).
Track Conditions
The main track is listed as fast with 20.34% moisture content, while the turf course is firm with the rail positioned at 10 feet and grass maintained at 5.25 inches. Clear weather with temperatures reaching 63 degrees and partly sunny conditions are forecast, creating ideal racing conditions for the final day of the meet.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Starter Allowance (1:00 PM)
1 1/16 Miles Dirt – $69,000
Key Contenders: Mercy Warren (#6) emerges as the top selection based on excellent recent speed figures and Tyler Gaffalione’s riding assignment for Joe Sharp. Colonial Rose (#10) presents strong value with Norm Casse training and Jose Ortiz aboard, having proven form over the Keeneland surface. Our Pretty Woman (#12) from the Steven Asmussen barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. provides another solid option.
Pace Analysis: This starter allowance should set up with moderate early pace, favoring horses with tactical speed who can position well for the stretch drive.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (1:32 PM)
1 1/8 Miles Turf – $110,000
This maiden special weight for juveniles marks the first of four turf races on the closing day card and represents the opening leg of multiple pick sequences. The race was originally oversubscribed and split into two divisions, with this being the stronger first division.
Key Contenders
Irish Law (#8) – 4-1 ML emerges as the top selection with Flavien Prat riding for Brendan Walsh. This colt debuted at Ellis Park in July before finishing second in a one-mile turf race at Kentucky Downs, demonstrating solid progression in his brief career. The step up to 1 1/8 miles should suit his running style, and the Walsh-Prat combination brings proven turf expertise to this assignment.
Maginnesontap (#10) – 5-2 ML represents Walsh’s second runner with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Like his stablemate, he debuted at Ellis Park before running second at Kentucky Downs, finishing approximately two lengths better than Irish Law in their respective debut races. While both Walsh runners show similar form profiles, the question becomes which has more room for improvement at this stage of their development.
Remember Mamba (#3) – 5-1 ML offers the highest upside potential as a first-time starter by Kitten’s Joy for Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz riding. This colt represents the classic turf route debut angle, bred by a proven turf sire whose dam was a two-turn winner on grass. While DeVaux doesn’t typically strike with first-time starters, this colt has been working well for his debut and Kitten’s Joy still maintains a 10% strike rate with turf route debutants over the past five years.
Petoskey Stones (#6) – 6-1 ML brings the powerful Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination that has dominated this meet. Making his turf debut after a single dirt start, this colt carries the proven pedigree and connections that could surprise at attractive odds.
Secondary Contenders
Hamunaptra (#14) – 6-1 ML draws John Velazquez for Michael Maker, coming off a recent scratch from Indiana Downs due to turf conditions. The distance and surface switch could unlock improvement for this maiden.
Freestate (#9) – 8-1 ML represents a value alternative with Axel Concepcion riding for Kevin Rice, though he was recently scratched from Parx due to veterinary issues.
Go for Rocket (#13) – 8-1 ML brings the proven Riley Mott training with Jaime Torres aboard, offering longshot potential in this competitive maiden field.
Pace Analysis
The 14-horse field creates potential pace complications, though the 1 1/8-mile distance should allow for tactical positioning. Both Walsh runners figure to employ similar stalking tactics, while Remember Mamba’s debut running style remains unknown but likely patient given his breeding.
Key Angles
The Brendan Walsh factor looms large with two runners showing similar recent form patterns. Walsh and Cox tied for the training title during the spring meet with 10 wins each, demonstrating their current form at this track. The first-time starter angle with Remember Mamba by Kitten’s Joy presents classic turf maiden upset potential.
Wagering Strategy
Irish Law represents the most reliable win bet option at 4-1 odds, offering solid value for a proven turf performer with an elite jockey. The exacta combinations should focus on the Walsh pair with Remember Mamba as the upset special underneath. Petoskey Stones at 6-1 provides excellent value in exotic wagers given the Cox-Ortiz Jr. connection’s meet success.
Selections
Win: Irish Law (#8)
Place: Maginnesontap (#10)
Show: Remember Mamba (#3)
Exacta: 8 with 3,10
Trifecta: 8 with 3,6,10 with 3,6,9,10,14
The combination of proven form, elite connections, and distance suitability makes Irish Law the logical choice to capture this competitive maiden special weight that opens the day’s turf action.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming (2:04 PM)
1 1/16 Miles Dirt – $140,000
This optional $100,000 claiming allowance for fillies and mares presents a classic class-dropping scenario with a clear standout. Steven Asmussen moved into the lead in the trainer standings Thursday and sends out the prohibitive favorite in a six-horse field that lacks competitive depth.
Key Contender
Our Pretty Woman (#6) – Even Money ML dominates this field with Luis Saez aboard for Steven Asmussen. Coming off a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Locust Grove Stakes at Churchill Downs, she represents a significant class drop that should result in a dominant performance. The key angle here involves her ability to race with Lasix, which has produced her strongest career efforts. While she has managed a stakes victory without the medication, her best performances came when allowed to use it, making this spot ideal for peak performance.
The Asmussen barn’s decision to drop her into this optional claiming spot likely reflects confidence in securing an easy victory while positioning her for future winter campaigns. Louisiana’s allowance of race-day Lasix in stakes races for older horses may influence her winter racing schedule. She carries a massive class edge over her five rivals, having proven herself at the Grade 2 level while these opponents struggle at basic allowance conditions.
Secondary Contender
Chilled (#3) – 6-1 ML provides the most logical upset possibility with John Velazquez riding for Victoria Oliver. Despite finishing off the board in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster earlier this meet, she brings proven Keeneland form with six career starts at the track. Her record shows consistent competitiveness at Keeneland, finishing in the money in four of those six local appearances despite never finding the winner’s circle.
The drop in class from Grade 1 competition to allowance level represents a significant relief spot. Velazquez’s presence suggests connections believe she can rebound from the Spinster disappointment. Her familiarity with the Keeneland surface and consistent local form make her the primary threat to the favorite.
Longshot Considerations
Low Country Magic (#5) – 4-1 ML offers the best value alternative with Jose Ortiz aboard for Ignacio Correas IV. At 4-1 odds, she presents higher potential returns than Chilled while maintaining legitimate winning chances.
Neon Icon (#1) – 3.5-1 ML provides another option with Axel Concepcion riding for George Arnold II. The moderate odds suggest some handicapper support, though her form appears inferior to the top choices.
Deep Longshots
Cat’s Cave (#2) – 8-1 ML with Jaime Torres and Rose Palace (#4) – 20-1 ML with Francisco Arrieta complete the field as extreme longshots lacking the class or form to compete with the top selections.
Pace Analysis
The small six-horse field reduces pace complications, though Our Pretty Woman’s tactical speed should allow her to secure ideal position throughout. With limited early pace pressures expected, she can rate comfortably behind the leaders before making her winning move. The short field also benefits closers like Chilled, who should have racing room in the stretch.
Key Angles
The class drop angle strongly favors Our Pretty Woman, moving from Grade 2 company to basic allowance conditions. The Lasix factor provides additional confidence, as her career pattern shows marked improvement when racing with the medication. Asmussen’s current hot streak at the meet adds further support to this selection.
Chilled’s Keeneland familiarity represents a legitimate angle, given her consistent local performances despite the recent Grade 1 failure. The Velazquez factor shouldn’t be overlooked, as elite jockeys rarely accept questionable mounts in small fields.
Wagering Strategy
Our Pretty Woman represents a logical single in multi-race wagers given her overwhelming class advantage and ideal conditions. At even money, she offers limited win bet value but should anchor exacta and trifecta combinations. The small field creates excellent opportunities for vertical wagers using her on top.
For exotic play, Chilled provides the most logical upset alternative underneath Our Pretty Woman. Low Country Magic at 4-1 offers better payoff potential in second and third positions. The limited field size makes trifecta and superfecta wagering attractive with proper coverage of the logical contenders.
Race Strategy
Our Pretty Woman should employ her tactical speed to secure stalking position behind any early leaders. Her class advantage should allow her to accelerate clear in the stretch when Saez asks for her best effort. Chilled figures to employ patient tactics from off the pace, relying on her proven closing kick.
Selections
Win: Our Pretty Woman (#6)
Place: Chilled (#3)
Show: Low Country Magic (#5)
Exacta: 6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,2,3,5
Superfecta: 6 with 1,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with ALL
This race presents a classic case of overwhelming class advantage meeting ideal conditions, making Our Pretty Woman a logical centerpiece for multi-race wagering sequences while providing modest exotic wagering opportunities in the abbreviated field.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming (2:36 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – $78,000
Key Contenders: Gracie’s Delight (#5) draws attention at 4-1 odds with Lanfranco Dettori riding for Wesley Ward. The juvenile filly sprint presents opportunities for sharp debuts and improving second-time starters.
Race 5 – Allowance (3:08 PM)
1 Mile Turf – $120,000
This first-level allowance (N1X) for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter represents the opening leg of both the Pick-6 and All-Turf Pick-3 wagers that must be paid out on closing day. The large 16-horse field creates complex pace dynamics and trip concerns on the one-mile turf course with the rail positioned at 10 feet.
Key Contenders
Mount Horeb (#9) – 8-1 ML emerges as the expert top selection with Tyler Gaffalione riding for Brendan Walsh. This five-year-old gelding brings proven turf form and represents the hot Walsh barn that has been dominant throughout the meet. His morning line odds of 8-1 provide excellent value for a horse with legitimate winning chances from this strong connection.
The Walsh-Gaffalione combination has been highly successful during this meet, making this pairing particularly attractive in a competitive allowance field. Mount Horeb’s experience advantage over younger rivals in this mixed-age affair could prove decisive, especially with an aggressive rider like Gaffalione who can position him effectively in the large field.
Copp (#1) – 6-1 ML presents strong value with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for Michael McCarthy. The three-year-old colt brings solid speed figures of 68-69 in his recent pace ratings with a career-best 87 figure. The McCarthy-Ortiz Jr. combination represents proven turf expertise, and the favorable post position should allow tactical flexibility in the crowded field.
His recent form shows consistency, and the step up from maiden company to this allowance level appears reasonable given his improving trajectory. The inside post provides options to either show early speed or sit off the pace, depending on how the race develops.
High Ceiling (#6) – 5-1 ML offers another live option with Jose Ortiz riding for Joe Sharp. The three-year-old colt brings the powerful Ortiz-Sharp connection that has been successful throughout the meet. His breeding suggests turf aptitude, and the step up in distance to one mile should suit his running style.
Operation Torch (#7) – 7-1 ML deserves serious consideration with John Velazquez aboard for James Toner. This five-year-old horse brings experience and the services of one of racing’s elite jockeys. Velazquez’s presence suggests connections believe this spot offers a realistic winning opportunity.
Secondary Contenders
Bite and Strike (#12) – 4-1 ML represents the powerful combination of Flavien Prat and William Mott. This three-year-old gelding has shown ability in turf racing and the Prat-Mott tandem brings proven expertise to this assignment. At 4-1 odds, he represents solid value if reproducing his best form.
Swirling Eights (#10) – 6-1 ML provides another option with Luis Saez riding for Michael Maker. The three-year-old colt’s recent form suggests improvement, and Maker’s turf expertise makes this entry worth consideration.
Toga d’Oro (#8) – 8-1 ML brings Lanfranco Dettori aboard for Michael Maker, offering another longshot possibility from a proven turf trainer. The European riding style of Dettori could be advantageous in the large field dynamics.
Longshot Considerations
Global Prosperity (#2) – 12-1 ML with Adam Beschizza and Pineland (#4) – 10-1 ML with Julien Leparoux provide deeper value options for exotic wagering. Both horses possess the breeding and connections to surprise at attractive odds.
Wakan (#15) – 15-1 ML draws attention as a potential bomber with Sophie Doyle riding for Marcelino Torres. His longshot status makes him attractive for vertical wagering combinations seeking higher payoffs.
Pace Analysis
The 16-horse field creates significant pace uncertainty, making early positioning crucial. Multiple horses possess tactical speed, suggesting a competitive early pace that could set up well for closers. The one-mile distance allows time for tactical maneuvering, but traffic problems remain a concern in such a large field.
The rail position at 10 feet means horses drawn inside will need to work harder to secure position, potentially favoring those breaking from the middle of the field. Trip and ride will be absolutely critical factors given the field size and competitive nature of this allowance field.
Key Angles
The Brendan Walsh factor with Mount Horeb represents the strongest trainer angle, given his current hot streak at the meet. The proven turf connections of McCarthy-Ortiz Jr. (Copp) and Mott-Prat (Bite and Strike) provide additional angles to consider.
The experience factor favors older horses like Mount Horeb and Operation Torch over three-year-olds making their first attempts at this class level. However, improving three-year-olds like Copp and High Ceiling possess upside potential that could be realized in this spot.
Wagering Strategy
Mount Horeb at 8-1 odds represents the best win bet value given expert support and proven connections. The large field makes this race ideal for exotic wagering, particularly exacta and trifecta combinations using multiple contenders.
Copp at 6-1 provides another solid win bet option with the McCarthy-Ortiz Jr. combination. The key strategy involves using multiple contenders in exacta and trifecta combinations rather than trying to single against such a competitive field.
For Pick-6 and Pick-3 players, spreading across the top contenders while including a few longshots provides the best coverage strategy. The mandatory payout situation makes this an attractive spot for players seeking large payoffs.
Race Strategy
Mount Horeb should employ stalking tactics under Gaffalione, using the large field to his advantage while avoiding early traffic. Copp figures to show early speed from the rail, potentially setting up the race for closers if pressed early.
Operation Torch and Bite and Strike represent the most dangerous closers, relying on their jockeys’ skill to navigate the crowded field and deliver late rallies.
Selections
Win: Mount Horeb (#9)
Place: Copp (#1)
Show: High Ceiling (#6)
Exacta: 9 with 1,6,7,12
Trifecta: 9 with 1,6,7,10,12 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,10,12
Pick-6/Pick-3: Use 1,6,7,9,10,12
This competitive allowance represents an excellent betting race with multiple legitimate contenders and attractive odds throughout the field, making it ideal for exotic wagering while anchoring multi-race sequences with Mount Horeb’s expert backing.
Race 6 – Bowman Mill Stakes (3:40 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – $250,000
This $250,000 juvenile stakes represents the first of three graded events on closing day and kicks off the late Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 sequences. The seven-horse field features multiple undefeated colts in what shapes up as a competitive pace battle among early speed types.
Scratch Concerns and Top Contenders
Outfielder (#3) – Wesley Ward/Lanfranco Dettori faces significant scratch concerns after qualifying for both Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf events at Del Mar. Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form reported the likely intent to scratch from this race to pursue Breeders’ Cup opportunities on Friday. This colt would have been the morning line favorite if remaining in the field, having won both his dirt sprint starts with impressive stretch kicks.
With Outfielder’s likely defection, the race dynamics shift dramatically among the remaining contenders.
Key Contenders
Heartily (#1) – 2-1 ML emerges as the new favorite with John Velazquez riding for Wesley Ward. This undefeated colt captured his debut at Keeneland’s opening weekend, winning by over six lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. While another maiden race on that same card produced faster times, Heartily dominated his division and showed the kind of tactical speed that could prove decisive from the rail position.
The rail draw provides significant advantages in this pace-heavy field, allowing Velazquez to control the early tempo while avoiding traffic problems. Ward’s decision to keep him at home rather than pursue Breeders’ Cup opportunities suggests strong confidence in this colt’s immediate stakes potential.
Spun D M C (#5) – 3-2 ML represents the morning line favorite with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for Randy Morse. This colt impressed in his Churchill Downs debut on September 12, covering six furlongs in a sharp 1:09.76 while earning an 89 Equibase Speed Figure. His tactical style showed early speed before settling third, then regaining the lead at the half-mile call for an easy victory.
The jockey upgrade to Ortiz Jr., who leads the fall meet in wins, represents a significant positive angle. Trainer Randy Morse has never owned a stakes runner, making this debut an important career milestone. The colt’s ability to rate off early pace before accelerating sets up well for this competitive field.
Strategic Reserve (#4) – 4-1 ML brings the proven combination of Tyler Gaffalione and Saffie Joseph Jr.. This represents Joseph’s first runner in the stakes, though his barn has been successful throughout the meet with multiple graded stakes placings. Gaffalione’s tactical skills should prove valuable in navigating the expected pace battle.
Secondary Contenders
Gallivant (#6) – 5-1 ML deserves respect with Luan Machado riding for Ben Colebrook. This colt nearly won the other division of the opening weekend maiden special weight, finishing third after setting the early pace and recording a strong speed figure of 92. His front-running style fits the pace scenario, though the early speed-favoring track conditions from opening weekend may not repeat.
Super Kick (#7) – 6-1 ML provides another speed option with Luis Saez aboard for Eoin Harty. Like Gallivant, he recorded a 92 speed figure in recent action, demonstrating the ability to compete at this level.
Just Deeds (#2) – 8-1 ML completes the field with Danilo Grisales riding for John Ortiz. This longshot represents the deepest value option in exotic wagering combinations.
Pace Analysis
The field sets up as a classic pace battle with multiple horses possessing early speed. Heartily, Gallivant, Super Kick, and potentially Strategic Reserve all show early tactical speed, creating the potential for honest early fractions. This pace scenario strongly favors Spun D M C’s ability to rate just off the early leaders before making his move.
The six-furlong distance allows little room for tactical error, making early positioning crucial. Horses breaking slowly or encountering traffic problems will face significant disadvantages in the short sprint.
Key Angles
The Wesley Ward factor looms large with both Heartily and potentially Outfielder, representing his powerful juvenile program. Ward’s decision-making regarding Outfielder’s participation will significantly impact the race dynamics and betting pools.
The jockey upgrade angle favors Spun D M C with Ortiz Jr., while the proven Joseph-Gaffalione combination provides confidence in Strategic Reserve. The debut winner angle supports both Heartily and Spun D M C as the most proven performers in the field.
Wagering Strategy
Assuming Outfielder scratches, Heartily becomes the logical win bet favorite at the rail with proven Keeneland form. Spun D M C offers solid value at 3-2 odds given his impressive debut and tactical advantages. Strategic Reserve at 4-1 provides excellent exotic wagering value with the hot Joseph barn.
The seven-horse field creates ideal trifecta opportunities, using the top three contenders while including Gallivant and Super Kick for deeper coverage. Daily double combinations with Race 7 should focus on these top selections while spreading underneath for value.
Trip Handicapping
Heartily should employ gate-to-wire tactics from the rail, using his early speed to control the pace. Spun D M C figures to stalk the early leaders before making his move in the stretch. Strategic Reserve and the other contenders will need to overcome the expected honest early pace.
The track bias from opening weekend slightly favored closers, but the short sprint distance limits come-from-behind scenarios. Early position and tactical speed appear crucial for success.
Selections
Win: Heartily (#1)
Place: Spun D M C (#5)
Show: Strategic Reserve (#4)
Exacta: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6,7
Daily Double: 1,4,5 with Race 7 top selections
This juvenile stakes presents an excellent betting opportunity with multiple legitimate contenders and attractive pace dynamics, assuming Outfielder’s expected scratch materializes to leave a more evenly matched field.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming (4:12 PM)
1 1/8 Miles Dirt – $130,000
This competitive allowance for three-year-old fillies represents a classic N2X (non-winners of two lifetime) allowance with optional $125,000 claiming provisions. The race kicks off the late Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 sequences and features a quality eight-horse field with multiple legitimate contenders seeking their second lifetime victory.
Key Contenders
Yes It Tiz (#8) – 7-2 ML emerges as the expert top selection with Florent Geroux riding for Brad Cox. This daughter of Tiz The Law brings proven dirt form and carries the significant 2-pound weight penalty at 120 lbs, indicating connections’ confidence in her class advantage. She captured her maiden victory at Gulfstream Park in April before running second twice at Ellis Park during the summer meet.
The Cox factor cannot be understated, as his barn continues its hot streak throughout the fall meet. Yes It Tiz showed marked improvement when switching to dirt racing and the step up to 1 1/8 miles should suit her pedigree profile as a daughter of Tiz The Law. Her recent form suggests she’s ready to break through at the allowance level.
Paris Lily (#6) – 3-1 ML represents the powerful combination of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brendan Walsh. This Godolphin-owned filly brings proven stakes experience and tactical versatility that could prove decisive in this competitive field. The Walsh-Ortiz Jr. combination has been highly successful throughout the meet, making this pairing particularly attractive.
Her recent form shows consistency at higher levels, and the drop to allowance company represents an ideal class relief spot. With earnings of $33,060 per start and a best Beyer figure of 92, she brings competitive credentials to this assignment.
Conch Fried Rice (#7) – 6-1 ML provides solid value with John Velazquez aboard for Michael Stidham. This filly was recently scratched from Delaware for trainer reasons but appears ready to return to competition. The Velazquez factor adds significant appeal, as elite jockeys rarely accept questionable mounts, especially in competitive allowance races.
Stidham’s patient approach and Velazquez’s tactical skills create confidence in this filly’s chances. At 6-1 odds, she represents excellent value for exotic wagering combinations.
Secondary Contenders
Quickick (#1) – 4-1 ML brings proven stakes experience with Flavien Prat riding for Thomas Amoss. This bay filly competed in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes at Saratoga, demonstrating her quality despite finishing sixth. The class drop from Grade 1 company to allowance level represents significant relief.
Her stakes experience provides a key edge over rivals who have primarily competed at maiden and claiming levels. The Prat-Amoss combination brings proven expertise to this assignment.
Nerazurri (#2) – 5-1 ML represents another strong option with Jose Ortiz riding for Mark Casse. The Casse-Ortiz combination has been successful throughout the meet, and this filly was recently scratched from a starter race for trainer reasons, suggesting connections prefer this spot.
Longshot Considerations
Sweet Seraphine (#3) – 8-1 ML offers value with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Cherie DeVaux. Gaffalione’s strong meet form makes this entry worth consideration in exotic wagering.
Disco Rules (#4) – 10-1 ML with Axel Concepcion and Just Ruthless (#5) – 12-1 ML with James Graham complete the field as longer prices with upset potential.
Pace Analysis
The eight-horse field should develop honest early fractions with multiple fillies possessing tactical speed. Yes It Tiz and Paris Lily both show the ability to position effectively, while Quickick’s stakes experience suggests she can handle competitive pace scenarios.
The 1 1/8-mile distance allows time for tactical maneuvering, favoring fillies with proven route experience like Paris Lily and Quickick. The pace setup should benefit horses with tactical speed who can position well for stretch drives.
Key Angles
The Brad Cox factor with Yes It Tiz represents the strongest trainer angle, given his barn’s current hot streak and success with three-year-old fillies. The Walsh-Ortiz Jr. combination with Paris Lily provides another proven angle that has dominated this meet.
The class relief angle favors both Quickick (dropping from Grade 1) and Paris Lily (stepping down from stakes company). The weight penalty on Yes It Tiz actually provides confidence, as connections clearly believe she possesses a class edge over her rivals.
Wagering Strategy
Yes It Tiz at 7-2 odds represents solid win bet value given expert support and the hot Cox barn. Paris Lily at 3-1 provides another reliable option with proven connections and class relief. Conch Fried Rice at 6-1 offers excellent exotic wagering value with Velazquez aboard.
The competitive nature of this field makes it ideal for exacta and trifecta combinations using multiple contenders. Daily double players should focus on the top three selections while including Quickick for added coverage.
Race Strategy
Yes It Tiz should employ her tactical speed to secure ideal position under Geroux’s guidance. Paris Lily figures to use her versatility to position optimally depending on early pace development. Conch Fried Rice and Quickick represent the most dangerous closers, capable of late rallies if the pace sets up favorably.
The proven route experience of several contenders suggests this race will be won by a filly who can handle the 1 1/8-mile distance while navigating the competitive early pace.
Selections
Win: Yes It Tiz (#8)
Place: Paris Lily (#6)
Show: Conch Fried Rice (#7)
Exacta: 8 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 8,6 with 1,6,7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Daily Double: 8,6,7 with Race 8 top selections
This allowance represents an excellent betting opportunity with multiple legitimate contenders and attractive pace dynamics, headlined by Yes It Tiz’s class advantage and the proven Cox-Geroux combination seeking their next allowance victory.
Race 8 – Bryan Station Stakes G3 (4:44 PM)
1 Mile Turf – $600,000
The $600,000 Bryan Station Stakes represents the feature race on closing day and anchors the late Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 sequences. This Grade 3 turf mile drew an overflow field of 12 three-year-olds plus four also-eligibles, creating a wide-open betting affair where trip and positioning will prove crucial.
Key Contenders
Troubleshooting (#4) – 5-2 ML emerges as the expert top selection with Tyler Gaffalione maintaining the mount for Greg Foley. This Not This Time colt captured the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs on September 6, defeating Golden Afternoon by a neck in a thrilling stretch battle. The victory marked trainer Foley’s first Grade 1 success and made Troubleshooting a millionaire.
The key question centers on his ability to handle the step up from 6.5 furlongs to one mile for the first time. All nine career starts have come in sprints ranging from 5.5 to seven furlongs, but his breeding by Not This Time suggests distance versatility. Expert analysis indicates he’s bred to handle longer distances and should transition effectively to the route.
His tactical evolution from front-runner to stalker proved crucial in the Franklin-Simpson, where he rated off the early pace before making his winning move. This tactical maturity bodes well for navigating the large field dynamics in this competitive Grade 3.
Giocoso (#9) – 9-2 ML carries lukewarm favoritism despite his Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes victory at Colonial Downs on August 9. Ben Curtis guided this Keith Desormeaux trainee through a narrow opening on the rail to capture his first stakes victory. The Not This Time colt benefited from a perfect pocket trip behind honest early pace before finding racing room in the stretch.
However, his most recent effort saw him finish second to Plensa in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs, raising questions about his current form. The two-month layoff since that September 6 defeat could provide the freshening needed to return to his Secretariat form.
Golden Afternoon (#2) – 6-1 ML brings proven form against Troubleshooting with Jose Ortiz aboard for Nicholas Vaccarezza. This Goldencents colt ran a game second in the Franklin-Simpson, pressing the early pace before being caught in the final strides. His tactical speed and willingness to press fractions could prove advantageous in this large field.
The rematch with Troubleshooting at a mile distance may favor his running style, as he won’t face the disadvantage of being outsprinted in the final furlong. His consistency and proven Grade 1 class make him a logical contender at attractive odds.
Secondary Contenders
Simulate (#10) – 8-1 ML represents significant value with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for William Mott. This Kitten’s Joy colt finished second to Giocoso in the Secretariat Stakes after enduring a far inferior trip. His most recent Nashville Derby disappointment can be excused given the 1 5/16-mile distance and Kentucky Downs quirks.
The two-month freshening and return to one mile should benefit this improving colt who springs a 16-1 upset in Saratoga allowance company earlier this year. Mott’s patient approach and Ortiz Jr.’s tactical skills make this pairing dangerous at attractive odds.
Final Gambit (#5) – 7-2 ML brings proven class credentials with Luan Machado riding for Brad Cox. This gray colt earned his high-water mark in the Jeff Ruby Stakes before running creditably fourth in the Kentucky Derby. His three turf starts have been pace-disadvantaged, and this mile distance should suit his style better than previous route attempts.
Dream On (#6) – 12-1 ML offers longshot value with Javier Castellano aboard for Mark Casse. This Not This Time colt brings stakes experience and the proven Casse-Castellano combination that excels on turf. His 12-1 odds seem generous given his class credentials.
Deep Value Options
Plensa (#11) – 6-1 ML merits serious consideration with Florent Geroux riding for George Arnold II. This Caravaggio colt caused a 22-1 upset over Giocoso in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs, demonstrating his ability to spring surprises at attractive odds.
Tenacious Leader (#8) – 8-1 ML brings the powerful Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez combination after a successful return from a year-long layoff. His allowance victory at Keeneland on October 4 suggests he’s returning to his best form, having finished second in last year’s With Anticipation Stakes.
The “Not This Time” Factor
An remarkable seven runners in the field are sired by Not This Time, creating unique dynamics for this competitive field. The sire currently ranks sixth on the 2025 General Sire list with 14 stakes winners and seven graded winners this year. This concentration suggests the race could develop into a battle among half-siblings with similar tactical styles.
Pace Analysis
The 12-horse field creates significant pace complications and trip concerns. Multiple horses possess early tactical speed, suggesting honest early fractions that could benefit closers like Simulate and Final Gambit. The one-mile distance allows time for positioning, but traffic problems remain a major concern given the field size.
Expert analysis emphasizes that trips will be “super important” given the competitive nature and lack of a clear standout. Early positioning and racing luck may prove more decisive than pure ability in this contentious field.
Key Angles
The rematch angle between Troubleshooting and Golden Afternoon provides compelling storylines, with the distance change potentially favoring the latter. The freshening angle benefits both Simulate and Tenacious Leader returning from extended layoffs.
The Chad Brown redemption angle with Salamis seeking to salvage a disappointing meet adds intrigue, though his outside post position creates concerns. The upset angle with Plensa repeating his Gun Runner Stakes success over Giocoso presents value opportunity.
Wagering Strategy
This wide-open Grade 3 presents excellent opportunities for exotic wagering rather than win betting. The competitive nature and large field size make exacta and trifecta combinations attractive, using multiple contenders rather than focusing on a single selection.
Troubleshooting offers the most reliable anchor for vertical wagers, while value options like Simulate, Dream On, and Plensa provide attractive prices for second and third positions. The mandatory payout situations on closing day make this an ideal spot for Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 coverage.
Selections
Win: Troubleshooting (#4)
Place: Golden Afternoon (#2)
Show: Simulate (#10)
Exacta: 4 with 2,5,9,10
Trifecta: 4,2 with 2,4,5,9,10 with 2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11
Pick-4: 4,2,5,9,10 with Race 9 selections
This Bryan Station Stakes represents the marquee betting race of the closing day card, offering multiple legitimate contenders and attractive exotic wagering opportunities in a field where trip and tactical positioning will prove decisive factors.
Race 9 – Hagyard Fayette Stakes G3 (5:16 PM)
1 1/8 Miles Dirt – $350,000
The $350,000 Hagyard Fayette Stakes closes the final day of the Keeneland Fall Meet with a competitive field of 11 horses featuring two promising three-year-olds taking on older rivals for the first time. This Grade 3 represents the capstone event of the Pick-4 and Pick-5 sequences that must be paid out on closing day.
Top Contenders
Gosger (#10) – 9-2 ML emerges as the expert top selection with Luis Saez aboard for Brendan Walsh. This gray son of Nyquist captured the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April before running an excellent second to Journalism in both the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Stakes. Expert analysis suggests he represents “one of the better overall crops of three-year-olds in a while” and could be making a case as the leader of the next tier behind Sovereignty and Journalism.
His miserable trip in the Pennsylvania Derby can be excused, as he stumbled from the gate and was forced five-wide into the first turn. The return to Keeneland, where he won the Lexington Stakes, provides a significant home track advantage. His tactical evolution and ability to rate off pace should benefit him against older horses making their first attempt at this distance.
Bracket Buster (#3) – 3-1 ML brings proven class credentials with John Velazquez riding for Victoria Oliver. This son of Vekoma recently captured his first graded stakes victory in the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park, making trainer Oliver the first female trainer to win that event. He previously finished second to Sovereignty in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga before his breakthrough Oklahoma Derby triumph.
His recent form shows significant improvement, recording triple-digit Beyer figures in his last two starts. The better post position (#3 vs. Gosger’s #10) provides tactical advantages in this competitive field. While expert analysis questions his being shorter-priced than Gosger, his recent graded stakes victory demonstrates he’s hitting peak form at the right time.
Hit Show (#11) – 6-1 ML returns to defend his 2024 Fayette Stakes victory with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for Brad Cox. This Dubai World Cup winner represents one of the most accomplished horses in the field, having captured the $12 million Dubai World Cup in April at massive 41-1 odds. He carries top weight of 126 pounds as the defending champion, seeking to become only the second horse since Royal Harmony (1969-1971) to win consecutive Fayettes.
However, his recent form raises concerns, as he finished fourth in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs on September 27. Expert analysis notes his best recent Beyer figure came at Mountaineer when allowed race-day Lasix, which won’t be available at Keeneland. Despite these concerns, his proven class and two wins in two previous Keeneland starts cannot be overlooked.
Secondary Contenders
Dragoon Guard (#9) – 7-2 ML brings the hot Brad Cox barn with Florent Geroux aboard. This four-year-old colt comes off a victory at Churchill Downs and represents Cox’s other major player in the race. The Cox-Geroux combination has been highly successful throughout the meet, making this pairing attractive at reasonable odds.
Lambeth (#1) – 8-1 ML offers solid value with Jose Ortiz riding for Joe Sharp. This four-year-old son of Arrogate draws the rail position, which could prove advantageous in controlling the early pace dynamics. The Ortiz-Sharp combination has shown consistent success throughout the meet.
Moonlight (#5) – 8-1 ML provides another option with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Chris Block. Gaffalione’s strong meet form makes this entry worth consideration in exotic wagering combinations.
Longshot Considerations
Dilger (IRE) (#4) – 12-1 ML brings European breeding with Flavien Prat riding for Saffie Joseph Jr.. The international angle provides upset potential at attractive odds.
Rattle N Roll (#6) – 12-1 ML represents veteran trainer Kenny McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. This six-year-old horse brings experience and could benefit from the competitive early pace.
Deep Value Options
Honor Marie (#2) – 20-1 ML, Best Actor (#7) – 30-1 ML, and Prince of Power (#8) – 30-1 ML complete the field as extreme longshots but could provide value in exotic wagering combinations seeking higher payoffs.
Key Race Dynamics
The field lacks a true standout, creating an “eclectic field” that opens opportunities for multiple contenders. The presence of two talented three-year-olds facing older horses for the first time adds intrigue, as three-year-olds have won this race 10 times, most recently with Blame in 2009.
The pace dynamics should favor horses with tactical speed who can position well in the competitive field. Both Gosger and Bracket Buster possess the tactical versatility needed to handle the step up against older competition.
Historical Context
This race carries significant prestige as the meet’s closing feature, with past winners including notable names like Summer Squall (1991) and Tom’s d’Etat (2019). The Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show’s attempt to repeat adds marquee appeal to the event.
Wagering Strategy
The competitive nature and lack of a clear standout make this race ideal for exotic wagering rather than straight win betting. Gosger at 9-2 represents the best value given expert support and home track advantage. Bracket Buster’s recent form and class relief make him a logical exacta partner.
The large field creates excellent trifecta and superfecta opportunities, using the top contenders while including longshots like Dilger and Rattle N Roll for coverage. Pick-4 and Pick-5 players should spread across multiple contenders to ensure coverage in this wide-open Grade 3.
Selections
Win: Gosger (#10)
Place: Bracket Buster (#3)
Show: Hit Show (#11)
Exacta: 10 with 3,9,11
Trifecta: 10,3 with 3,9,10,11 with 1,3,4,5,9,10,11
Superfecta: 10,3 with 3,9,10,11 with 1,3,4,5,9,10,11 with ALL
This Hagyard Fayette Stakes represents the perfect culmination to closing day, featuring legitimate Grade 3 contenders with multiple angles and attractive exotic wagering opportunities in a field where class, tactical speed, and trip will determine the outcome.
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight (5:48 PM)
1 1/8 Miles Turf – $110,000
Key Contenders: Chambersville (#1) draws support at 7-2 odds with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Kenneth McPeek. The closing maiden special weight on turf provides opportunities for well-bred juveniles making their debuts or improving from previous efforts.
Jockey Analysis
Tyler Gaffalione continues his strong Keeneland meet performance, highlighted by key mounts including Mercy Warren (#6, Race 1) and Troubleshooting (#4, Race 8). His recent success at the meet makes him a rider to follow in exacta and trifecta combinations.
Irad Ortiz Jr. brings multiple live mounts including Our Pretty Woman (#12, Race 1), Copp (#1, Race 5), Spun D M C (#5, Race 6), and Hit Show (#11, Race 9). His versatility across different race types makes him particularly dangerous in multi-race wagers.
Flavien Prat handles key assignments including Irish Law (#8, Race 2) and other significant mounts throughout the card, making him another rider to include in combinations.
Trainer Insights
Wesley Ward saddles multiple contenders in the Bowman Mill Stakes with both Heartily (#1) and Outfielder (#3), though scratch concerns exist for the latter. Ward’s juvenile program continues to produce quality runners at Keeneland.
Brad Cox brings strong contenders including Yes It Tiz (#8, Race 7) and defending champion Hit Show (#11, Race 9), representing solid betting interests across different race types.
Steven Asmussen handles Our Pretty Woman in both Race 1 (#12) and Race 3 (#6), indicating confidence in this filly’s abilities across different conditions.
Best Wagering Strategies
Daily Double Opportunities: The Race 1/Race 2 combination featuring Mercy Warren/Colonial Rose with Irish Law provides solid value potential.
Pick 3 Sequences: Target the stakes races (6-7-8) with Heartily, Yes It Tiz, and Troubleshooting as anchors while spreading underneath for value.
Value Plays: Copp (#1) in Race 5 at 6-1 odds represents excellent win bet value, while the Bryan Station Stakes presents multiple contenders for exotic wagering.
Multi-Race Wagers: Consider Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences targeting the stakes races while including secondary choices for coverage in the supporting events.
