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Presque Isle Downs presents an eight-race program today featuring a competitive blend of claiming events and allowance contests. The track continues its regular Tuesday racing schedule with first post set for 8:30 PM ET. Purse values range from $16,000 to $38,000 across the card, with claiming prices from $12,500 to $25,000 providing opportunities for connections to upgrade their stock.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Current weather conditions show temperatures around 64°F with partly cloudy skies. September typically brings moderate temperatures with average highs of 64°F and occasional rainfall, though specific real-time surface conditions were not available at publication time. The track utilizes both traditional dirt and all-weather synthetic surfaces. Connections should monitor late-breaking surface updates as conditions can influence preferred running styles and track biases.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Claiming (6 furlongs, dirt)
Purse: $18,000
Chris’s Kitty enters as the morning line favorite after capturing a maiden victory at this track in August, drawing clear under mild urging to win by 3¾ lengths. The gelding showed tactical speed and the ability to sustain his effort through the stretch.
Country Manor represents the primary threat, coming off an impressive maiden-breaking performance where he closed strongly to win by 2¼ lengths over this track’s 5-furlong distance. The step up in distance should suit his closing style.
Cheerful Trout adds another dimension, having won convincingly going one mile in August, suggesting the cutback to six furlongs might sharpen his speed.
Pace Analysis: Expect moderate early fractions with Chris’s Kitty likely controlling the tempo.
Wagering Strategy: Chris’s Kitty appears the logical win bet, with Country Manor offering value in the place position.
Race 2 – Claiming (1 mile 70 yards, dirt)
Purse: $18,000
Linny Kate stands out as the morning line choice, having captured a grinding victory at this distance in August, prevailing by one length in determined fashion. Her proven ability at the trip gives her a significant edge.
Starship Belmont showed competitive form in a recent sixth-furlong contest, looming four-wide but lacking a late kick. The distance extension should help his cause.
Pace Analysis: Moderate pace scenario favors Linny Kate’s grinding style.
Wagering Strategy: Linny Kate represents solid value as the probable favorite.
Race 3 – Claiming (6 furlongs 110 yards, dirt)
Purse: $18,000
First Foray impressed with a clear, unchallenged victory at five furlongs in August, winning by 2¾ lengths. The slight distance increase plays to his tactical speed advantage.
Sugar Treat brings proven form at this exact distance, having tracked the pace before drawing off to win by four lengths in August. His tactical versatility makes him dangerous.
Pace Analysis: Both top choices possess early speed, setting up a potential pace duel that could benefit a closer.
Wagering Strategy: First Foray and Sugar Treat merit equal consideration in horizontal wagers.
Race 5 Detailed Analysis – Allowance Optional Claiming
Race 5 – 10:18 PM ET
Distance: 6 furlongs, Dirt
Purse: $38,000
Winner: $23,940
Key Contenders Analysis
Fistfulofmoney (9/5 Morning Line Favorite)
Jockey: Israel Rodriguez | Trainer: Kevin Rice
This 2-year-old colt enters as the betting favorite despite mixed recent form. He broke his maiden impressively in his Presque Isle Downs debut, showing strong acceleration to win going away. However, his most recent effort was disappointing when finishing fourth of five, beaten 10 lengths in a stakes race at Woodbine in July.
The positive is his proven ability at this track, having won here previously. His earlier form includes a creditable second-place finish at Churchill Downs, beaten only a half-length. The return to his home base at Presque Isle Downs could spark improvement, and trainer Kevin Rice knows this track well.
Mo Dodgy (3/1)
Jockey: A.J. Ayala | Trainer: Kevin Rice
Another Kevin Rice trainee who presents a concerning recent form profile. In his last start at Woodbine, he finished last of nine runners, beaten 11½ lengths in a 6-furlong stakes race in August. The positive angle is his connection to the same barn as the favorite, suggesting Rice may have both horses sharp for this spot.
Mo Dodgy’s breeding suggests he should appreciate the step up in distance, being by Mo Town out of a Candy Ride mare. The question remains whether he can rebound from that poor showing at Woodbine.
Expresso Bay (4/1)
Jockey: Leonardo Corujo | Trainer: Todd Beattie
This represents the most intriguing value play in the field. Expresso Bay demolished a maiden field at Penn National in August, winning as the 7-10 favorite by an impressive 7½ lengths. The manner of victory was particularly striking, as he dueled inside early before driving clear with authority.
The colt showed tactical speed and the ability to sustain his effort through the stretch. His debut performance suggests genuine ability, and the slight cutback from his maiden victory could enhance his natural speed. Todd Beattie has him fit and ready based on recent workout reports.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Jes See Me (5/1)
This colt impressed in his maiden victory at Presque Isle Downs, drawing off in hand to score by seven lengths as the 7-5 favorite. The commanding nature of his debut success suggests genuine talent, and his familiarity with the track surface provides an edge.
Live Stream (6/1)
Won his maiden at this track in July, circling five-wide before going away to defeat Go Simple by 2¼ lengths. His ability to make up ground from difficult positions demonstrates tactical versatility.
Go Simple (6/1)
Responded well in his most recent start, pressing the pace before clearing to win by 1¼ lengths at this track. His early speed could prove valuable in the pace setup.
Longshots to Consider
At these odds, the field appears appropriately priced without obvious longshot values emerging from the form analysis.
Pace Analysis
The race shapes up with legitimate early speed from multiple sources. Go Simple has shown gate speed in his victories, while Expresso Bay demonstrated tactical pace in his Penn National score. Fistfulofmoney possesses tactical speed but may settle slightly off the early pace.
Expect honest early fractions with the speed horses likely engaging through the opening quarter-mile. This setup could favor a horse with tactical speed who can avoid the early battle while positioning for a late strike.
Key Angles to Consider
The Kevin Rice angle deserves attention with both the favorite Fistfulofmoney and Mo Dodgy representing his barn. Rice’s familiarity with track conditions and ability to have multiple runners sharp for the same race creates interesting dynamics.
Expresso Bay’s debut performance suggests he may be the most talented runner in the field, making his 4/1 odds potentially generous. His ability to handle pressure early while maintaining a strong finish gives him multiple ways to win.
The local track knowledge factor favors horses with previous Presque Isle Downs experience, giving an edge to Fistfulofmoney, Jes See Me, Live Stream, and Go Simple over Expresso Bay and Mo Dodgy.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Expresso Bay offers the best value at 4/1 odds given his impressive debut performance and room for improvement in his second start.
Place/Show: Fistfulofmoney merits consideration in the place hole despite concerns about his recent form, as his track familiarity and connections provide a floor.
Exacta Strategy: Key Expresso Bay over Fistfulofmoney, Jes See Me, and Live Stream. The 4/1 odds on Expresso Bay create value if he can secure the victory.
Trifecta: Use Expresso Bay and Fistfulofmoney in the top two spots, with Jes See Me, Live Stream, and Go Simple filling out the bottom.
Race Selection
Top Pick: Expresso Bay – His dominant maiden victory suggests genuine class, and the 4/1 odds provide excellent value for a horse who could be much shorter if his Penn National form holds up.
Win/Place/Show: Expresso Bay
Backup: Fistfulofmoney for track familiarity and connections
Longshot: Jes See Me based on his impressive local debut
Race 7 Detailed Analysis – Allowance Optional Claiming
Race 7 – 11:12 PM ET
Distance: 6 furlongs, Dirt
Purse: $43,000
Winner: $27,090
Key Contenders Analysis
Dreaming Of Kona (9/2)
Jockey: Tyler Spieth | Trainer: R. Gonzalez
This gelding enters with the strongest recent form in the field, having captured his most recent start at Presque Isle Downs in August. In that effort, he rallied from off the pace to defeat Spirited Sol by a neck in a three-horse field. The victory demonstrated his ability to overcome traffic trouble, as he was described as being “off heels” before angling out and surging to victory.
His previous form includes an impressive win at Thistledown in June, where he rallied five-wide to win by 1¼ lengths as the 4-5 favorite. That performance showed his versatility in tactical positioning and his strong closing kick. The combination of recent success and proven ability at this distance makes him a formidable contender.
Impacto (7/2)
Jockey: Gaddiel Martinez | Trainer: Pablo Arriagada
Impacto brings solid credentials from his July victory at Presque Isle Downs, where he won “going away confidently” by 2¼ lengths over five runners. The manner of that victory suggests genuine class, as he controlled the race from the front and drew clear with authority in the stretch.
His tactical speed and proven ability to handle this exact track and distance combination provide significant advantages. The gelding appears well-suited to the allowance optional claiming level and should appreciate returning to his home base.
John Dutton (3-1 Morning Line Favorite)
Jockey: Willie Montañez | Trainer: M. Davis
Despite being installed as the morning line favorite, John Dutton presents the most questionable form profile in the field. His most recent effort saw him finish third in a stakes race at this track, where he “dug in” on the pace but was ultimately outkicked, finishing 2½ lengths behind He’s A Mess.
The concerning aspect is that he was competing at the mile distance in that stakes race, and the cutback to six furlongs may not necessarily favor his running style. His morning line favoritism appears generous given the recent form of other contenders.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Spirited Sol (6/1)
Jockey: Miguel Rojas | Trainer: K. DePasquale
This gelding has been competitive in recent starts, including his narrow loss to Dreaming Of Kona in August where he “dueled and led late” before being caught. His earlier form shows a second-place finish behind You Bet A Fortune in July, losing by 1¼ lengths after closing well.
The consistent placings suggest he belongs at this level, though his inability to close the deal in winnable spots raises questions about his winning ability.
You Bet A Fortune (Longer Odds)
Jockey: B. Tapara | Trainer: J.P. Bernardini
This gelding presents an interesting form reversal story. He won convincingly at this track in July, “repelling challenges” to defeat Spirited Sol by 1¼ lengths. However, his most recent effort was disappointing, finishing last of three when favored at 1-5 odds in the same race won by Dreaming Of Kona.
The poor showing as a heavy favorite raises significant concerns about his current condition, despite his proven ability at this level.
Hilarious Affair (5/1)
Jockey: Antonio Gallardo | Trainer: M. Maker
This runner brings the most intriguing outside credentials, having finished second at Saratoga over five furlongs in August. The Saratoga form typically represents a higher class level than what he faces today, making him a potential value play if he can transfer that form to this venue.
His breeding and connections suggest genuine ability, and the slight distance stretch from five to six furlongs should suit his profile.
Longshots to Consider
At the projected odds, Hilarious Affair represents the best longshot value given his Saratoga form and quality connections with trainer Michael Maker.
Pace Analysis
The race sets up with multiple pace factors. Impacto showed front-running ability in his July victory, while John Dutton demonstrated pace-pressing tactics in his stakes effort. You Bet A Fortune has shown the ability to “set and press pace” in his wins.
Expect moderate to honest early fractions with multiple horses engaging through the opening quarter-mile. This scenario should set up well for Dreaming Of Kona’s closing style, as he has demonstrated the ability to overcome pace pressure in his recent victories.
Key Angles to Consider
The most significant angle is the form turnaround between Dreaming Of Kona, Spirited Sol, and You Bet A Fortune. Their August meeting provides a clear form line, with Dreaming Of Kona proving superior to both rivals. The form reversal from You Bet A Fortune’s July dominance to his August failure suggests current condition concerns.
Hilarious Affair’s class drop from Saratoga to this level presents an intriguing value angle, especially with Antonio Gallardo aboard. The step up in distance from his Saratoga effort should enhance his chances.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Dreaming Of Kona offers the best combination of recent form and tactical versatility at 9/2 odds.
Place/Show: Impacto provides solid backup given his track familiarity and front-running ability.
Value Play: Hilarious Affair represents the best longshot opportunity at 5/1 based on his Saratoga form and class relief.
Exacta Strategy: Key Dreaming Of Kona over Impacto and Hilarious Affair, with a saver using Impacto on top.
Trifecta: Use Dreaming Of Kona and Impacto in the top two positions, with Hilarious Affair, Spirited Sol, and John Dutton filling out the bottom.
Race Selection
Top Pick: Dreaming Of Kona – His recent victory over these rivals and proven closing ability make him the logical choice at fair odds.
Win/Place/Show: Dreaming Of Kona
Backup: Impacto for track familiarity and tactical speed
Longshot: Hilarious Affair based on his Saratoga class and distance stretch
The race appears to set up perfectly for Dreaming Of Kona’s closing style, with enough pace pressure to set up his rally while facing familiar rivals he has already defeated.
Race 8 – Claiming (1 mile 70 yards, dirt)
Purse: $16,000
Van enters off a smart victory where he found room at the rail and prevailed by 1½ lengths. His ability to navigate traffic adds value at this competitive level.
Grey Charmer counters with his own recent success, dueling through the stretch to win by a neck in August. His tactical speed and determination make him formidable.
Pace Analysis: Multiple pace factors suggest honest fractions throughout.
Wagering Strategy: Van’s rail-running ability gives him an edge in this competitive field.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Antonio Gallardo continues to lead the rider colony with his tactical expertise and strong finish to races. Gaddiel Martinez has shown consistent form with closing types and merits attention when aboard stretch runners. Willie Montañez excels with speed horses and should be noted when piloting early pace types.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
For vertical wagers, focus on races where pace scenarios set up clearly defined trip preferences. Horses stretching out in distance after strong shorter efforts often provide value, particularly in the claiming ranks where class relief can enhance performance.
Consider keying proven distance performers in exacta and trifecta structures, especially when they show tactical speed advantages. Daily double opportunities exist between races featuring similar pace dynamics.
