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Today features a balanced mix of claiming, maiden, and allowance events split between the main dirt oval and the Connally Turf Course. The racing office has put together some competitive fields, particularly in the middle of the card and the turf routes. The feature races offer plenty of betting value with deep fields and compelling pace scenarios. Several scratches have altered the complexion of a few races, meaning horseplayers will need to adjust their pace projections accordingly. The rail on the turf is set at 30 feet, which typically benefits horses drawn inside or those with tactical speed who can save ground around the turns.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather in Houston today is ideal for a full day of racing. The forecast calls for sunny skies with a high temperature of 76 degrees and a low of 45 degrees. Humidity is moderate at 63 percent, and there is only a slight chance of rain throughout the day. Winds will be coming out of the northwest at a brisk 13 miles per hour. This headwind down the backstretch could compromise horses that get caught out wide early, while the tailwind in the homestretch might give a slight boost to late runners.
Due to the dry and sunny conditions, expect the main dirt track to play fast and fair. Sam Houston generally features a fair dirt oval, but early speed is always dangerous, especially in the sprint races. The turf course should be firm and lush. With the temporary rail placed out at 30 feet, the turns are tight, and history shows that saving ground is absolutely paramount on this configuration. Horses that can secure an inside position early will have a distinct advantage over those forced to rally wide on the grass.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey colony at Sam Houston this meet is deep and competitive, but Stewart Elliott continues to prove why he is a perennial leading rider here. Sitting atop the standings, Elliott has mastered the nuances of both the dirt and turf courses. He is highly selective with his mounts and tends to put his horses in perfect tactical positions. When he rides for the top barns, he demands immediate respect.
Floyd Wethey Jr. and Jose L. Alvarez are also having stellar seasons. Wethey is excellent at breaking horses out of the gate sharply in sprint races, while Alvarez has a very quiet, patient style that fits the turf routes perfectly. Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez is a rider who consistently brings home live longshots and knows how to get the most out of mid-level claiming horses. Finally, Lane J. Luzzi and Brayan Pena have been riding with extreme confidence lately and are always dangerous when putting a horse on the lead.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven M. Asmussen dominates the trainer standings at Sam Houston year after year, and this 2026 season is no exception. His operation here runs like a well-oiled machine, and he strikes at a high percentage across all classes, particularly in maiden and allowance ranks. Any horse running out of the Asmussen barn needs a long look, especially when paired with his go-to rider Stewart Elliott.
W. Bret Calhoun is another powerhouse trainer who selectively targets Sam Houston with well-meant runners. Calhoun excels in route races and has a remarkable return on investment with his turf horses. Sarah Nicole Davidson and Mindy J. Willis are prominent local trainers who manage their claiming horses exceptionally well. They are adept at finding the right spots for their runners to succeed, and both consistently hit the board at overlay prices.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The structure of today’s card offers several lucrative opportunities for exotic wagering. The early Pick 4 starting in Race 2 requires some spread, as the turf routes can be somewhat unpredictable. Finding a single in the middle of the card will be the key to unlocking value. The late Pick 5, beginning in Race 5, looks highly playable. There are vulnerable favorites in the sprint races, making this a prime sequence for value seekers.
My best value approach today centers around fading early speed in the turf routes due to the rail placement and the headwind down the backstretch. Look for mid-pack stalkers who can save ground before tipping out at the top of the lane. In the dirt sprints, look for inside speed or horses cutting back in distance. Exacta boxes using the top two or three selections in each race should yield a steady return throughout the afternoon.
1st Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
01:00 PM
Pace Analysis
This opening race is an allowance sprint for Arabian and Paint breeds going six and one-half furlongs. The pace should be honest but not overwhelming. Ekonia (1) and Wma Minute Maid (6) look to have the most natural early foot and will likely dictate terms from opposite sides of the starting gate. Majd Son (3) and Majd Storm (4) should settle into comfortable stalking trips just behind the leaders.
Key Contenders
Majd Son (3) looks ready for a peak effort today. Trained by Nicole Ruggeri and ridden by Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, this four-year-old enters with solid recent form and fits this condition perfectly. He possesses tactical speed and should get the ideal trip sitting right off the target.
Ekonia (1) is the main danger and the likely pacesetter. Drawing the rail gives jockey Mario Fuentes the option to send this runner early and try to control the race from the front. If left alone on the lead, Ekonia has the stamina to hold on for a large share of the purse.
Secondary Choices
Majd Storm (4) comes from the same sire line as Majd Son and offers similar tactical versatility. Ridden by Rodolfo Guerra, this runner has enough talent to pick up the pieces if the early leaders duel each other into submission.
Longshots
Wma Madjic Slippers (2) is an intriguing price play. This five-year-old mare might not have the raw speed of the top choices, but she has the experience edge and could sneak into the exotics with a clean trip along the inside.
Selections
Win: MAJD SON (3) – 40% confidence
Place: EKONIA (1) – 30% confidence
Show: MAJD STORM (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: WMA MADJIC SLIPPERS (2) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
01:27 PM
Pace Analysis
Moving to the turf for a one-mile claiming event. With the rail out 30 feet, early positioning is critical. Kara (1) has inside speed and will try to protect the rail under Weston Hamilton. Juicy Hanna (4) and Kamikaze (5) will press the pace from the outside. The scratch of Lady Authentic changes the dynamic slightly, allowing the remaining speed horses an easier time clearing the field.
Key Contenders
Kara (1) gets the absolute best of the draw here. The Danny Pish trainee loves to flash early speed, and from the inside post, she can dictate the terms of this race. If Hamilton gets her to relax on the front end, she might never look back.
Pronunciation (7) is the closer to fear. Ridden by Deshawn L. Parker, this Kari Craddock trainee has a devastating late kick. The outside draw is a slight concern with the rail placement, but if the pace gets hot, she will be flying down the center of the track late.
Secondary Choices
Gold Makin Girl (2) fits well in this spot. The Terry Eoff trainee has been consistent at this class level and draws perfectly to save all the ground right behind the pacesetter. Lane J. Luzzi just needs to find a seam turning for home to give this mare a winning chance.
Longshots
Maybe So (6) offers a bit of value for trainer Sarah Nicole Davidson. Mario Fuentes takes the mount, and while she has been inconsistent, her best closing effort puts her right in the mix for the bottom of the trifecta.
Selections
Win: KARA (1) – 35% confidence
Place: PRONUNCIATION (7) – 30% confidence
Show: GOLD MAKIN GIRL (2) – 25% confidence
Alternative: MAYBE SO (6) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
01:54 PM
Pace Analysis
This is a quick five-furlong dash on the main track for claiming fillies and mares. The scratch of Dark Dutchess takes a significant amount of speed out of the race. Bali Girlee (4) should now be the uncontested speed of the field. Ok by Me (3) will track her closely, but Bali Girlee looks to have a clear advantage early.
Key Contenders
Bali Girlee (4) looks very tough to beat in this scenario. Mindy J. Willis has this mare in top form, and getting Stewart Elliott in the irons is a massive upgrade. She has the best early speed remaining in the field and should take them wire to wire.
Anna’s Dream (1) draws the rail and will look to save ground under Lane J. Luzzi. She does not have the zip to run with Bali Girlee early, but she is a grinding type who can plug away for second if the pace catches up to the leader.
Secondary Choices
Go Purple (5) drops into an easier spot today for trainer Austin Gustafson. Deshawn L. Parker will look to rally her from the back of the pack. She has class back class but needs to show more life early to catch the top choice.
Longshots
Ok by Me (3) gets Mario Fuentes aboard and will try to stalk the pace. She lacks the punch of the favorites but can inherit a piece of the pie by default if others falter.
Selections
Win: BALI GIRLEE (4) – 55% confidence
Place: ANNA’S DREAM (1) – 25% confidence
Show: GO PURPLE (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: OK BY ME (3) – 5% confidence
4th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
02:21 PM
Pace Analysis
This six and one-half furlong dirt sprint for claimers has been decimated by scratches, with Love Candy and Red Summerbird both exiting the race. This leaves a pace vacuum. Pinky Ring Bling (5) and Hay Scooby Doo (6) now look like the primary pace players. They should move forward early and establish a moderate tempo.
Key Contenders
Pinky Ring Bling (5) is the one to beat for trainer Jerry Gourneau. Ridden by Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez, this hard-knocking veteran steps into a very manageable field. He has good tactical speed and should get first run on the tiring front runners.
Ghost Cowboy (3) is a major player for Danny Pish. Lane J. Luzzi takes the mount on this seven-year-old gelding who has plenty of back class. He tends to drop far back early, but the scratches might allow him to stay closer to the pace today.
Secondary Choices
Hay Scooby Doo (6) is a very consistent type for Sarah Nicole Davidson. Brayan Pena will put him right on the lead, and if the fractions are slow, he has every right to steal this race on the front end.
Longshots
Brock On By (8) is an older gelding who occasionally flashes big late speed. Rene Diaz will have to navigate a trip from the outside post, but at a big price, he is worth including in the superfecta.
Selections
Win: PINKY RING BLING (5) – 40% confidence
Place: GHOST COWBOY (3) – 30% confidence
Show: HAY SCOOBY DOO (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: BROCK ON BY (8) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
02:48 PM
Pace Analysis
A six-furlong maiden claiming event for the fillies and mares. This looks like a chaotic pace scenario. More Coffee (5) and City of Secrets (3) both show sharp early speed in their workouts. Wildest Problem (1) will also show foot from the inside. Expect a blistering early pace that should set things up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
More Coffee (5) is the heavy hitter here for the Steve Asmussen barn. Stewart Elliott takes the mount on this three-year-old filly who makes her debut for a tag. Asmussen rarely puts them in for a claiming price early unless they are meant to win right away. She has been training sharply and is the clear class of the field.
City of Secrets (3) is the primary threat for W. Bret Calhoun. Jose L. Alvarez rides this four-year-old who has hit the board against tougher maiden special weight company in the past. The drop in class today makes her very dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Dottie C (4) ships in with decent form for Sarah Nicole Davidson. Brayan Pena rides. She has the tactical speed to sit just off the expected hot pace and make a move when the leaders tire.
Longshots
K K’s First Dance (2) is an intriguing price horse. Isaiah Wiseman takes the call, and she has been quietly working well for Joaquin Garza. She could blow up the tote board if she runs to her morning workouts.
Selections
Win: MORE COFFEE (5) – 45% confidence
Place: CITY OF SECRETS (3) – 35% confidence
Show: DOTTIE C (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: K K’S FIRST DANCE (2) – 5% confidence
6th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Back to the turf for a one and one-sixteenth mile claiming route. With County Slugger scratched, the pace looks moderate. San Mateo Kat (2) and True Blue Sky (6) will vie for early supremacy. Colormecairo (4) will settle mid-pack and watch the action unfold.
Key Contenders
Colormecairo (4) represents the powerful Asmussen and Elliott connection. This five-year-old mare has a devastating turn of foot and excels at this distance. She will drop back early, save ground around the turns, and unleash a massive late run. She is the most likely winner on the card.
San Mateo Kat (2) has the inside advantage for Sarah Nicole Davidson. Brayan Pena will likely send her straight to the lead to take advantage of the 30-foot rail setting. If she gets an easy opening half-mile, she will be very difficult to catch down the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Cafezinho (7) makes a lot of sense for Mindy J. Willis. Elvin Gonzalez rides this mare who has been keeping better company recently. The class relief should help her confidence, and she fits the profile of a horse that can stalk and pounce.
Longshots
Paintbrush (7) will be a massive price. Joaquin Garza trains and Rodolfo Guerra rides. She is inconsistent but has a turf pedigree that suggests she can handle this distance if the pace collapses completely.
Selections
Win: COLORMCAIRO (4) – 50% confidence
Place: SAN MATEO KAT (2) – 25% confidence
Show: CAFEZINHO (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: PAINTBRUSH (5) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
03:42 PM
Pace Analysis
This is a high-level maiden special weight sprint going six furlongs. The scratch of Rapid Return removes some early zip. Transom Bay (1) looks extremely fast from the rail. Tiz Another Bunny (6) will press from the outside. The pace will be extremely fast and contested throughout.
Key Contenders
Transom Bay (1) looks like a prime wire-to-wire candidate for Mindy J. Willis. Stewart Elliott gets the leg up, and from the inside post, his instructions will be simple. He has the speed to clear this field early and the stamina to finish the job.
Caribbean Dream (2) is a solid closer for Austin Gustafson. Lane J. Luzzi rides this four-year-old who has shown a good closing kick in recent starts. If Transom Bay is pressured too hard early, Caribbean Dream is the one most likely to benefit.
Secondary Choices
Win’s Image (5) is the second runner for Mindy J. Willis. Deshawn L. Parker will keep this horse in a tracking position. He has been training well and should offer value in the exotic pools.
Longshots
Coal Stone (3) gets Elvin Gonzalez in the irons. He has not shown much early speed in the past, but the blinkers come off today, which might provoke a better effort at a huge price.
Selections
Win: TRANSOM BAY (1) – 40% confidence
Place: CARIBBEAN DREAM (2) – 30% confidence
Show: WIN’S IMAGE (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: COAL STONE (3) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
04:09 PM
Pace Analysis
This is the featured dirt race of the day, an allowance optional claiming event going one mile and seventy yards. The scratches of Painted Lad and Bergheim simplify the pace puzzle. Fly Red Bird Fly (1) and Chasing Coyotes (2) will ensure a very strong early tempo. Pollito Tito (6) will settle far back and make one late run.
Key Contenders
Pollito Tito (6) is perfectly spotted here by Steve Asmussen. Stewart Elliott rides this four-year-old who thrives in route races with hot early paces. The setup here is flawless for his running style. He will watch the speed duel from afar and come sweeping past the leaders in the final furlong.
Chasing Coyotes (5) is the main danger on the front end. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for Dick Cappellucci. This gelding is tough as nails when he gets an easy lead, and despite the presence of inside speed, Wethey is aggressive enough to try and clear the field going into the first turn.
Secondary Choices
Slim Jimmy (3) is a major player for Cesar Govea. Brayan Pena rides this versatile sort who can either lead or stalk. He should get a beautiful trip sitting right behind the top two speed horses.
Longshots
Binary Code (4) steps up in class today for H. Ray Ashford Jr. Iram Vargas Diego takes the mount. He is facing tougher company but has been improving steadily and is worth a look at the bottom of the trifecta.
Selections
Win: POLLITO TITO (6) – 45% confidence
Place: CHASING COYOTES (2) – 30% confidence
Show: SLIM JIMMY (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: BINARY CODE (4) – 10% confidence
9th Race – Sam Houston
Post Time
04:36 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a very competitive claiming route on the turf. The scratch of Brilliant Spin leaves ten runners to navigate the one and one-sixteenth mile distance. Clements Ride (1) has the inside speed. Flying Tex (2) and Chill the J (7) will also be forwardly placed. Expect a moderate pace as the riders look to save horse for the long stretch run.
Key Contenders
Hedge the Risk (4) is the stronger of the two Asmussen entries. Stewart Elliott takes the mount, indicating this is the stable’s preferred runner. He has excellent tactical speed and should sit a perfect garden trip behind the early leaders before making a winning move at the top of the stretch.
Absolutely Certain (6) is a massive threat for W. Bret Calhoun. Jose L. Alvarez rides this six-year-old gelding who loves the Sam Houston turf. He is a closer who will need some pace help, but his late kick is arguably the best in the field.
Secondary Choices
Curlins Incharge (3) is the uncoupled stablemate for Asmussen. He enters with decent form but lacks the tactical speed of Hedge the Risk. He is a must-use in the exotics given the connections.
Down the Islands (10) gets Brayan Pena for Sarah Nicole Davidson. He draws a tough outside post but has the class to overcome it if Pena can get him to drop in and save ground early.
Longshots
Clements Ride (1) gets the rail draw and Lane J. Luzzi. If the pace is unexpectedly slow, he has the pedigree to go wire to wire at a very generous price.
Selections
Win: HEDGE THE RISK (4) – 35% confidence
Place: ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN (6) – 30% confidence
Show: CURLINS INCHARGE (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: DOWN THE ISLANDS (10) – 15% confidence
