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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The card at Sam Houston Race Park for Saturday, February 28, 2026, presents a balanced mix of dirt and turf contests, featuring nine races in total. The headliners include allowance optional claiming events and competitive maiden special weight contests that have drawn decent field sizes. The program begins with an accredited Texas-bred allowance event and alternates between sprints and routes, with the turf rail set at 30 feet, which often favors horses that can save ground or make a decisive move late Without getting pushed too wide. The card highlights local connections, with top conditioners like Steve Asmussen and J.R. Caldwell well-Represented.

Weather and Track Conditions

For this late February date in Houston, conditions are expected to be seasonal. Without specific adverse weather advisories, the main track is listed as Fast and the turf course as Firm. The rail placement at 30 feet on the turf course is significant; this wide setting typically preserves the inside lanes but can sometimes create a bias toward horses with tactical speed who can secure position before the turns. On the dirt, the Sam Houston surface is generally fair, though it occasionally favors inside speed in sprint races.

Race 1 Analysis

Post Time

1:00 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The pace in this 7-furlong opener for Texas-breds should be moderate. Masqueradesobia looks to be the primary speed threat and should try to control the fractions from the outset. Uptown Keepmeinmind has shown the ability to sit close and could press the issue early, ensuring the leader does not get away with a soft opening quarter.

Key Contenders

Masqueradesobia (4) enters this race with a strong chance to wire the field if allowed to dictate terms. The distance suits his running style, and the drop in class or lateral move here keeps him competitive. Uptown Keepmeinmind (1) draws the rail, which is advantageous at this distance. He should save ground and be in a prime position to strike when the field turns for home.

Secondary Choices

Highh Stakes (5) is a consistent runner who may benefit if the top two engage in a duel. He tends to grind out finishes and could pick up pieces late.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the speed. A straight win bet on the likely pace setter is the primary Play, with an exact box protecting the Rail Runner.

Selections

Win: Masqueradesobia (4) – 35% confidence

Place: Uptown Keepmeinmind (1) – 25% confidence

Show: Highh Stakes (5) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Uptown Topthessassy (3) – 10% confidence

Race 2 Analysis

Post Time

1:27 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This 6 1/2 furlong sprint for fillies and mares features plenty of early foot. Radio Goo Goo and Mola Mia both possess gate speed. Expect a contested pace which could set things up for a stalker sitting just behind the first flight.

Key Contenders

Radio Goo Goo (6) has the Speed Figures to contend here and draws the outside post, allowing the jockey to watch the break and decide whether to send or sit. Mola Mia (1) will likely have to go from the rail to avoid getting shuffled back, making her a dangerous front-end threat if she breaks cleanly.

Secondary Choices

Don'tcallmepatsy (3) fits well here on class and should be running late. If the pace heats up between the inside and outside speed, she is the most likely beneficiary.

Betting Strategy

The outside draw for the speed horse is often a winning angle at this distance. A win bet on the 6 is the solid Play, with an exacta keying 6 over 1 and 3.

Selections

Win: Radio Goo Goo (6) – 30% confidence

Place: Mola Mia (1) – 25% confidence

Show: Don'tcallmepatsy (3) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Seriously Sassy (2) – 15% confidence

Race 3 Analysis

Post Time

1:54 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Moving to the turf for a one-mile maiden claiming event, the pace scenario is often murky. However, Game Time Decision has shown flashes of speed and may find himself on the lead by default. With the rail out 30 feet, early positioning is crucial to avoid wide trips on the turns.

Key Contenders

Kochan (2) brings experience and a running style that suits the turf. He should be able to secure a good spot mid-pack and make a run. Friday Night Fever (1) draws the rail and will save all the ground. In turf routes, the shortest way around is often the winning way, especially with the temporary rail setting.

Secondary Choices

Golden Pursuit (7) has been knocking on the door and faces a field that lacks a Standout superstar. If he can overcome the wide post, he is a major player.

Betting Strategy

Turf maiden races can be chaotic. Box the inside runners who are guaranteed to save ground.

Selections

Win: Kochan (2) – 28% confidence

Place: Friday Night Fever (1) – 24% confidence

Show: Golden Pursuit (7) – 18% confidence

Alternative: Game Time Decision (5) – 15% confidence

Race 4 Analysis

Post Time

2:21 PM CST

Pace Analysis

In this 6 1/2 furlong dirt sprint, Mo Saturdays and Threefiftyseven look to be the primary motivators. The pace should be Honest, potentially favoring a horse that can stalk and pounce rather than a deep closer.

Key Contenders

Derby Date (3) comes from the high-percentage Asmussen barn. This horse usually finds the right company and this spot looks ideal for a stalking trip. Threefiftyseven (4) is a hard-knocking type who will likely be involved from the start. His consistency makes him a must-use in exotics.

Secondary Choices

Mo Saturdays (1) has the rail speed to be dangerous. If he clears early, he could take them a long way. Colonel Barton (6) is a capable runner who fits on Speed Figures but needs a clean trip.

Betting Strategy

Trust the connections here. A win wager on the Asmussen runner is logical, with trifecta tickets keying him with the speed horses.

Selections

Win: Derby Date (3) – 32% confidence

Place: Threefiftyseven (4) – 26% confidence

Show: Mo Saturdays (1) – 18% confidence

Alternative: Colonel Barton (6) – 12% confidence

Race 5 Analysis

Post Time

2:48 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This Maiden Special Weight features fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. First-time starters and lightly raced horses make the pace Unpredictable, but Tap Now and Leila Mae, both from the Asmussen stable, are likely well-schooled to show speed or tactical ability.

Key Contenders

Tap Now (6) and Leila Mae (3) form a formidable uncoupled entry for Steve Asmussen. In these maiden spots, the barn’s runners are often ready to fire on debut or second asking. Tap Now draws the better outside post for a young horse.

Secondary Choices

Quick And Classy (5) has shown some ability in morning works or previous outs and fits the “best of the rest” profile.

Betting Strategy

The Asmussen dominance in maiden races at Sam Houston is a strong angle. An exacta box of the two Asmussen runners is a prudent strategy.

Selections

Win: Tap Now (6) – 35% confidence

Place: Leila Mae (3) – 30% confidence

Show: Quick And Classy (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Katabatic Wind (1) – 10% confidence

Race 6 Analysis

Post Time

3:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

A 5-furlong turf sprint requires sharp speed. Oklahoma Flame and Won More Time have the gas to get to the front. With the rail at 30 feet, the turns are tight, emphasizing the need to be forwardly placed.

Key Contenders

Won More Time (9) has a difficult post but possesses the speed to clear if he breaks sharply. Oklahoma Flame (6) is the logical alternative speed who draws slightly better. If he can hold the rail position against the outside rusher, he wins.

Secondary Choices

Walkers Creek (4) gets a weight break as a three-year-old and could surprise if the pace meltdown occurs. Son Of A Bling (1) draws the rail and is a threat to sneak up the inside.

Betting Strategy

Speed holds on 5-furlong turf sprints. Bet the horse you believe makes the lead. The 6 offers a good balance of post and speed.

Selections

Win: Oklahoma Flame (6) – 28% confidence

Place: Won More Time (9) – 25% confidence

Show: Walkers Creek (4) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Son Of A Bling (1) – 15% confidence

Race 7 Analysis

Post Time

3:42 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This 6-furlong sprint for fillies and mares features Blameitonmidnight, a horse with ample speed. Bringonthebubbly on the rail also has to send. Expect a hot pace.

Key Contenders

Blameitonmidnight (3) has the class and speed to handle this group. Despite the potential for a duel, she has shown resilience. Sunny San Leon (6) is the class of the field and the outside post is perfect for a stalking trip behind the speedballs.

Secondary Choices

Bringonthebubbly (1) is a dangerous Rail Runner but must avoid getting pinned.

Betting Strategy

The outside stalker setup for Sunny San Leon is compelling. Win bet on 6.

Selections

Win: Sunny San Leon (6) – 33% confidence

Place: Blameitonmidnight (3) – 28% confidence

Show: Bringonthebubbly (1) – 18% confidence

Alternative: Stealin'time (2) – 10% confidence

Race 8 Analysis

Post Time

4:09 PM CST

Pace Analysis

A claiming sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs. Algebra has back class and can sit close. Chief Brady and Vietnam Victory will likely push the pace.

Key Contenders

Algebra (8) is the class dropper or lateral mover who fits best here. The outside post allows him to stay out of trouble. Chief Brady (2) has speed and the services of Deshawn Parker, a veteran who knows how to ration speed.

Secondary Choices

Vietnam Victory (4) is a solid check-earner who usually fires.

Betting Strategy

Algebra looks like the most reliable horse in a race full of inconsistencies. Win bet on 8.

Selections

Win: Algebra (8) – 30% confidence

Place: Chief Brady (2) – 25% confidence

Show: Vietnam Victory (4) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Slim Jimmy (5) – 10% confidence

Race 9 Analysis

Post Time

4:36 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a 5-furlong turf sprint. Phunk and Successfulpath should show speed. The wide rail makes the break critical.

Key Contenders

Successfulpath (8) draws the outside but has the tactical speed to clear. Phunk (1) on the rail is a major player if he handles the turf (note: check for surface switches, but analysis assumes turf as written).

Secondary Choices

Tapitsgotapistol (6) is a consistent turf sprinter who will be running late.

Betting Strategy

Take the outside speed in the finale.

Selections

Win: Successfulpath (8) – 28% confidence

Place: Phunk (1) – 24% confidence

Show: Tapitsgotapistol (6) – 20% confidence

Alternative: On Wing (2) – 15% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Stewart Elliott is a rider to watch closely on this card, particularly when teaming up with Steve Asmussen. Their combination in the maiden and allowance races (Races 4 and 5) often signals a “live” runner. Deshawn Parker brings veteran savvy to the dirt sprints; his ability to save horse for the final furlong is unmatched at this track. Keep an eye on Lane Luzzi in the turf sprints; he is aggressive out of the gate, which is essential when the rail is out.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steve Asmussen’s barn is the dominant force to reckon with. In Race 5, having two runners suggests he has the race surrounded, and typically, the one with the better post or the first-call rider is the intended winner. J.R. Caldwell is another conditioner who excels with Texas-breds; his runners in the turf sprints (Races 6 and 9) are often well-prepared for the specific demands of the Sam Houston turf course.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Best Bet of the day appears to be the Asmussen entry in Race 5. Both fillies are likely well-meant, and an Exacta Box (3-6) provides solid coverage.

For value, look at Sunny San Leon in Race 7. While Blameitonmidnight may take the bulk of the money due to Speed Figures, Sunny San Leon‘s outside draw and stalking style are perfectly suited to the race dynamics, potentially offering higher odds than his chances dictate.

Pick 5 Strategy (Races 5-9):

• Race 5: 3, 6
• Race 6: 6, 9
• Race 7: 3, 6
• Race 8: 2, 8
• Race 9: 1, 8

This ticket focuses on the key contenders and creates a manageable budget while covering the most likely winners.