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Santa Anita Park presents a competitive nine-race card on Sunday, January 25, 2026, headlined by the $100,000 Baffle Stakes in the seventh race. First post is scheduled for 12:30 PM PST under optimal Southern California racing conditions. The track features a strong mixture of claiming, maiden, and allowance events across both dirt and turf surfaces, with the Baffle Stakes serving as the centerpiece stakes event on the downhill turf course.

The card offers substantial wagering opportunities with a Pick 6 carryover of $51,027 beginning in Race 4, and a Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 carryover exceeding $149,000. The competitive nature of the fields and the track’s prevailing speed bias create attractive betting scenarios throughout the afternoon, particularly in horizontal exotic wagers where informed handicappers can capitalize on the meet’s established patterns.

Weather and Track Conditions

Southern California delivers ideal racing weather with temperatures ranging from the low to mid-60s during early races, warming to approximately 70 degrees by mid-afternoon. Sunny skies prevail with light Santa Ana wind conditions that will dissipate by late morning. The offshore flow pattern produces dry, stable atmospheric conditions with minimal wind impact on racing surfaces.

The main dirt track rates as fast, while the turf course maintains a firm designation with the rail positioned at 10 feet. Track maintenance crews have prepared excellent racing surfaces throughout the current meet, with the dirt showing consistent speed-favoring characteristics and the turf playing remarkably fair for multiple running styles. Morning moisture from overnight marine layer activity will dry quickly under the Southern California sun, ensuring optimal conditions by first post.​

Track superintendent crews maintain meticulous standards at Santa Anita, and today’s ideal weather conditions allow both surfaces to race at their best. The turf course, positioned at the 10-foot rail, provides adequate racing width for full fields while maintaining the ground-saving advantages that inside posts traditionally enjoy on the Santa Anita grass.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Statistical analysis of the current meet through January 24 reveals pronounced biases that significantly impact wagering strategy. The dirt track demonstrates overwhelming favoritism toward early speed and pressing tactics, with horses racing on or within one length of the lead capturing 56-58% of sprint victories. This speed bias ranks among the most pronounced in recent Santa Anita history and creates substantial advantages for horses breaking alertly and securing favorable early position.

Front-runners and pace-pressers dominate dirt sprint outcomes, while deep closers face nearly insurmountable obstacles. Horses rallying from four or more lengths behind win only 9% of dirt sprints at the current meet. The six-furlong distance shows 31% wire-to-wire winners, indicating that pace-pressing types who can inherit or press the lead slightly outperform pure front-runners. This suggests that tactical speed with positional flexibility provides optimal winning profiles on the Santa Anita dirt.

Dirt routes at one mile moderate the speed bias slightly but still strongly favor forward positioning. Early speed horses win 51-53% of mile races, stalkers positioned one to four lengths back account for 36% of winners, while closers manage only 13% of victories. The short Santa Anita stretch of 990 feet compounds the difficulty for late-running horses, as they lack sufficient distance to overcome deficits once the field straightens for home.

The turf course with rails at 10 feet plays considerably more fair to various running styles than the dirt, though distinct patterns emerge at specific distances. One-mile turf routes, the most common grass distance, disadvantage closers who win just 19% of races compared to 30-40% for early speed types and stalkers combined. The configuration allows front-runners to control tempo while stalkers maintain striking position, leaving deep closers with insufficient distance to mount effective rallies.

In contrast, turf routes at 1 1/8 miles significantly favor late-running types, with closers winning 34% of races at this distance. The extended distance provides sufficient real estate for horses to overcome ground loss and close from behind. Early speed horses show disadvantage at 1 1/8 miles on turf, winning just 23% of races as the longer distance exposes horses lacking stamina.​

Flat turf sprints from the backstretch chute play fairly to all running styles except deep closers, who account for just 22% of winners. The downhill turf sprint configuration, featured in today’s Baffle Stakes, traditionally plays fair to all styles and creates exciting tactical scenarios as horses navigate the unique descent.​

Post position analysis reveals inside posts 1-3 provide approximately 50% of dirt sprint winners, creating substantial positional advantages for speed horses drawn low. The rail post on turf performs exceptionally well at 17.8% winners, the highest of any post position. Outside posts in turf sprints can provide cleaner trips but risk wider journeys through the turns, creating a balance between trip efficiency and ground loss.

Race 1 – Claiming Turf Mile

Post Time: 12:30 PM

The opening race features a claiming turf mile for older horses that have never won three races, contested for a $25,000 claiming price. The six-horse field presents a tactical puzzle as the pace scenario appears relatively benign, creating challenges for horses requiring legitimate tempo to mount effective rallies.

Pace Analysis

The pace setup projects as moderate to slow, with limited natural early speed among the entrants. Got Soul from post one possesses tactical speed to contest or press from the rail, while Pacific Quest represents the likeliest pacesetter after returning from a three-month layoff. The absence of multiple confirmed speed horses suggests comfortable early fractions that favor horses with tactical versatility rather than pure late-running types. Santa Anita turf mile races historically favor horses positioned within striking distance at the half-mile call, as the configuration provides limited opportunity for horses trailing by significant margins to overcome deficits in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Cathal (IRE) emerges as the logical favorite after trainer George Papaprodromou drops this Irish-bred gelding significantly in class. Winless since September 2024, Cathal ran competitive efforts against tougher N3L starter allowance company before today’s drop to $25,000 claiming ranks. The class relief positions him to secure his third career victory if he can overcome the potentially problematic pace scenario that offers limited early pressure.

Papaprodromou’s stable maintains exceptional form with favorites, winning with 25 of 40 betting choices (62%) at a $3.28 return per $2 win wager over the past nine months. This statistic demonstrates the barn’s ability to deliver with horses expected to win, and Cathal’s class edge over this field creates the exact scenario where Papaprodromou excels. The gelding requires a legitimate pace to set up his late-running style, but his superior class may prove sufficient even without ideal pace dynamics.​

Pacific Quest holds tactical advantage as potential lone speed. The five-year-old gelding returns from a three-month layoff for trainer Robert Hess Jr., dropping in class after competitive efforts against better company. Off since October, Pacific Quest demonstrated his effectiveness at this level when winning at Del Mar two starts back, recording an 83 Beyer Speed Figure that surpasses typical efforts required at $25,000 claiming level.

The gelding’s ability to control early fractions without pressure creates favorable scenario for his pressing/stalking style. Longer distances suit Pacific Quest better than today’s one-mile trip, but the drop in class compensates for distance preference. From post two, jockey Tyler Baze can employ tactical flexibility, either engaging Got Soul early or allowing that rival to clear before taking position in second.

Smooth Salute returns to preferred turf footing after misfiring on dirt in his most recent start. The six-year-old gelding won twice over the Santa Anita turf in 2025, demonstrating his affinity for this course. Trainer Alfredo Marquez reunites Smooth Salute with the surface where he performs best, positioning him for improved performance. The late-running style requires substantial pace pressure to generate winning rally, and today’s modest tempo creates challenges.​

Secondary Choices

Got Soul stretches back to routing after a comeback sprint for trainer Andy Mathis. The four-year-old colt won both previous turf route attempts at Santa Anita, establishing his effectiveness at this distance and surface combination. From the rail, Got Soul possesses sufficient early speed to secure favorable position, and his proven ability at the distance makes him dangerous if able to control comfortable fractions.​

Earned Not Given completes the field as an outsider facing significant class challenges. The Mark Glatt trainee shows limited form to suggest competitiveness against these rivals, though any horse from the meet’s leading trainer deserves respect.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The pace scenario creates uncertainty that handicappers must navigate carefully. Cathal offers the most proven class advantage but faces potential pace setup issues that could compromise his late-running style. Pacific Quest represents the value alternative as a horse that can control his own destiny through tactical speed, particularly appealing if the public overloads on Cathal based purely on class while overlooking tactical considerations.

Vertical exotic strategies should emphasize Pacific Quest and Cathal in exacta and trifecta wagers, while including Smooth Salute as a deeper price in trifectas. Daily double players using this race as the first leg should spread to include the three logical contenders, as the opening race often produces surprising outcomes when pace scenarios fail to materialize as anticipated.

Selections

Win: Cathal (IRE)
Place: Pacific Quest
Show: Smooth Salute

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming Dirt Mile

Post Time: 1:02 PM

A maiden claiming race for four and five-year-olds at $20,000 presents the classic scenario of experienced campaigners seeking their initial victory against modest competition. The small five-horse field creates straightforward wagering propositions, though identifying which veteran maiden will finally break through requires careful analysis of recent form and trainer patterns.

Pace Analysis

Love Da Gig represents the likeliest pacesetter in this moderate field, showing early speed in both previous starts despite finishing distant both times. The gelding’s front-running tendencies create foundation for honest tempo, though whether additional horses press or allow Love Da Gig comfortable lead remains uncertain. The mile distance provides ample opportunity for horses to settle into rhythm before making moves in the stretch.

Eight of the 16 dirt mile races through January 21 were won by pacesetters, demonstrating that one-mile dirt races at Santa Anita reward both early speed and tactical speed depending on the specific pace dynamics of each race. Today’s field composition suggests moderate fractions that should allow stalkers and closers reasonable opportunity to mount effective bids.​

Key Contenders

Babe Ruthless emerges as the clear top selection after dropping to maiden claiming for trainer Dan Blacker. The well-bred Candy Ride gelding makes his third career start after two maiden special weight attempts, including a better-than-looked fifth-place debut on dirt followed by a distant finish on turf. The gelding’s fifth-place dirt debut produced a 73 Beyer Speed Figure that exceeds the typical winning figure required at maiden $20,000 claiming level.

Blacker’s stable demonstrates strong effectiveness with maiden special weight to maiden claiming droppers, operating at 30% strike rate with $2.85 return on investment over the past five years. This statistical pattern suggests the barn excels at identifying horses ready to graduate when dropped into claiming company after struggling against special weight maidens. The pedigree supports expectations, as Babe Ruthless represents Candy Ride offspring produced by a mare that won 10 stakes including the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. As a broodmare, she produced five multiple winners, establishing exceptional family credentials.

From post one, Babe Ruthless should secure favorable stalking position behind Love Da Gig’s expected pace-pressing tactics. The inside post saves ground throughout, and if the gelding has matured since his debut efforts, he possesses sufficient class advantage to handle these rivals. Jockey William Pyle provides competent handling, and the combination of class drop, favorable post, and proven dirt form creates optimal winning scenario.

Irish Element represents the secondary choice after trainer Doug O’Neill drops this nine-start maiden into claiming ranks for the first time. The gelding finished nowhere in his only previous dirt start but compiled respectable turf form against better company. The O’Neill and Emisael Jaramillo combination operates at 37% strike rate with lofty $5.42 return on investment when teamed over the past year, demonstrating exceptional effectiveness when the Hall of Fame trainer pairs with the talented Venezuelan jockey.

The surface switch from turf to dirt creates uncertainty, though Irish Element’s turf form against better suggests he possesses sufficient ability to compete at this reduced level. The gelding makes his second start off a layoff, traditionally a positive angle for O’Neill runners, and the combination of trainer-jockey effectiveness with class drop creates viable winning scenario despite surface concerns.

Secondary Choices

Love Da Gig likely sets the pace but shows limited evidence of finishing ability. The gelding stretches from sprints to routing, and while his pedigree suggests routing may not suit him optimally, he likely establishes early command. If the pace proves comfortable and he demonstrates unexpected stamina, Love Da Gig could steal this race, though his form suggests he serves more effectively as a pace factor for closers.

Goodbye Dal and Palo Alto complete the field with limited credentials suggesting competitiveness against the top two selections.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The small field creates straightforward wagering proposition favoring Babe Ruthless for win betting, while exacta players should construct tickets using Babe Ruthless with Irish Element and Love Da Gig in both directions. The limited field size reduces exacta payoffs but provides security against surprising outcomes. Trifecta players can spread beneath the top two to include all three remaining horses, as small fields frequently produce unexpected third-place finishers from deep prices.

Daily double players using Race 2 as a leg should key Babe Ruthless and Irish Element, particularly those seeking higher-priced outcomes to balance chalky selections in connecting races.

Selections

Win: Babe Ruthless
Place: Irish Element
Show: Love Da Gig

Race 3 – Claiming Sprint Three-Year-Olds

Post Time: 1:33 PM

Three-year-olds face 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt for a $20,000 claiming price in a race restricted to horses that haven’t won since November 25 or are eligible for weight allowances. The competitive five-horse field features several horses dropping in class after unsuccessful campaigns against better competition.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario projects as highly contentious with multiple horses possessing early speed credentials. Petrakos, Flashy Fritz, and One Happy Dude all show front-running or pressing tendencies in recent starts, creating potential for pressured early fractions. Santa Anita’s pronounced speed bias in dirt sprints, where 56-58% of winners come from early positions, suggests that despite potential pace pressure, horses establishing early position maintain significant advantages over late-running types.

The 5 1/2-furlong distance provides minimal recovery time for horses encountering early trouble, amplifying importance of clean breaks and immediate position. Projected opening quarter fractions in the 21.4-22.0 range create honest tempo, with the half-mile likely reached in 44.2-45.0 depending on the level of early pressure.

Key Contenders

A. P. Again returns to low-level claiming company after unsuccessful attempts against tougher competition for trainer Doug O’Neill. The three-year-old colt by Honor A. P. won twice during the Los Alamitos meet at this claiming level before attempting more ambitious spots that proved beyond his current ability. Today’s class drop returns him to competition he handled successfully, positioning him for strong performance.

The O’Neill barn demonstrates exceptional effectiveness with 50% class drops in dirt sprints, operating at 31% strike rate with positive return on investment over the past five years when dropping horses 50% or more in claiming value. This pattern suggests the Hall of Fame trainer excels at identifying optimal spots for horses after testing them against better company. A. P. Again switches to Jaramillo, creating the potent trainer-jockey combination that operates at 37% with $5.42 ROI.​

The colt adds Lasix for the first time, traditionally a positive angle for horses making equipment changes that can improve breathing efficiency. The combination of significant class drop, proven effectiveness at this level, jockey upgrade to Jaramillo, and Lasix addition creates multiple positive factors converging simultaneously. The primary concern involves A. P. Again’s apparent preference for racing at Los Alamitos rather than Santa Anita, where he’s stabled, though class edge may overcome track preference.

Very Quiet drops in class for trainer Peter Miller after winning a sharp maiden claiming race three starts back at Los Alamitos. The gelding subsequently faced tougher starter allowance competition twice without success, but today’s field represents easier assignment than his recent efforts. Miller’s reputation for placing horses effectively creates confidence in the class drop strategy.​

The late-running style faces challenges given Santa Anita’s bias against closers, who win only 9% of dirt sprints. Very Quiet must overcome both running style disadvantage and draw challenging enough race to close into, requiring A. P. Again and other speed types to weaken sufficiently for his late run to prove effective.​

Secondary Choices

Flashy Fritz drops from California-bred stakes to open claiming while undergoing multiple equipment and jockey changes. The gelding transitions to Steve Miyadi training, adds Lasix, goes route to sprint, and runs as first-time gelding. The combination of so many changes simultaneously creates uncertainty whether Flashy Fritz will respond positively or find the transitions overwhelming. At a price, he represents exotic inclusion beneath more reliable top choices.

One Happy Dude ships from trainer Steve Knapp’s barn with tactical speed to secure forward position. The three-year-old colt makes just his third career start and shows gradual improvement, suggesting continued progression remains possible.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

A. P. Again’s class edge and multiple positive factors position him as the logical win betting choice, though his price likely reflects public awareness of these advantages. Exacta players should construct tickets using A. P. Again on top with Very Quiet, Flashy Fritz, and One Happy Dude underneath, while reversing to protect against surprising outcomes. The five-horse field creates manageable boxing expenses for exacta and trifecta wagers.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 players using this race as a leg should strongly weight A. P. Again and Very Quiet, potentially including Flashy Fritz as deeper protection given his multiple equipment changes that occasionally produce dramatic improvement.

Selections

Win: A. P. Again
Place: Very Quiet
Show: Flashy Fritz

Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight Cal-Bred Fillies

Post Time: 2:04 PM

PICK 6 BEGINS – $51,027 CARRYOVER

California-bred maiden fillies and mares contest six furlongs on dirt in a maiden special weight offering $70,000 in purse money. The race marks the beginning of the Pick 6 sequence carrying over $51,027, with track officials estimating the total pool will exceed $350,000. This creates substantial Pick 6 interest and potentially inflates betting interest in this race as handicappers construct multi-race wagers.

Pace Analysis

Syntax emerges as the controlling speed in this small field largely void of natural pace. The three-year-old filly showed speed in both previous starts, finishing second in her debut before improving to lose by just a half-length on turf in her second start. Returning to dirt where she debuted, Syntax should establish clear early lead without significant pressure. All in the Game represents the only potential pace rival, having shown speed in her single dirt start, though her tendency to break slowly in turf sprints creates uncertainty about her gate alertness.​

The projected moderate pace creates perfect scenario for Syntax to control comfortable fractions before maintaining her advantage through the stretch. Santa Anita’s speed bias in dirt sprints, where 56-58% of winners come from early positions, amplifies Syntax’s positional advantage. The short six-furlong distance provides minimal opportunity for closers to mount effective rallies, particularly when the leader controls uncontested fractions.

Key Contenders

Syntax represents Daily Racing Form expert Brad Free’s best bet of the day, a significant endorsement from one of California racing’s most respected handicappers. The three-year-old filly by Pavel makes her third career start for trainer Edward Freeman after showing gradual improvement through her first two efforts. Runner-up in her debut on dirt, she switched to turf for her second start and missed by just a half-length despite the surface change.​

Now returning to dirt where she debuted successfully, Syntax faces a field otherwise void of pace pressure, creating ideal scenario for her front-running or pace-pressing style. Freeman’s record with third-start maidens exceeds his first and second-start statistics significantly, as his horses typically require racing experience before reaching peak form. Syntax’s third-start timing aligns perfectly with this barn pattern.​

The filly switches to jockey Kazushi Kimura, who ranks among the meet’s leading riders with 13 wins from 59 starts (22%). From post four in the six-horse field, Syntax draws ideal position to secure the lead without inside traffic concerns or excessive outside disadvantages. If she breaks alertly and establishes clear early command, the speed-favoring track bias and comfortable pace scenario position her to prove very tough to catch in the Santa Anita stretch.​

All in the Game switches back to dirt after three turf efforts. The four-year-old mare by Grazen produced speed in her only dirt start, finishing third while sandwiched between two turf sprint efforts where she broke slowly both times. The surface switch back to dirt eliminates gate concerns demonstrated on turf, potentially unlocking improved early speed.​

From post two, All in the Game draws inside of Syntax, creating tactical dilemma for jockey Juan Hernandez. If All in the Game breaks alertly and attempts to engage Syntax early, she risks burning excessive energy in a speed duel that could compromise both horses. More likely, Hernandez allows Syntax to clear before settling All in the Game into stalking position, hoping the favorite weakens enough in the stretch for All in the Game to pounce.

Secondary Choices

Joyful Mischief represents the most experienced horse in the field with 14 career starts and seven in-the-money finishes. The veteran mare has demonstrated consistent ability to hit the board without winning, suggesting she possesses sufficient competitiveness to factor but lacks the final winning dimension. Her late-running style faces significant disadvantage given the pace scenario and track bias, though she represents the most reliable exotic filler to complete trifectas beneath the top two selections.​

Turkey Bird, Dancing Thru Fire, and Dad’s Bad Bunny complete the field with limited credentials suggesting victory probability against the top selections.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

As the first leg of the Pick 6 with substantial carryover, this race generates significant betting interest beyond its individual merit. Syntax represents the logical single for aggressive Pick 6 players willing to accept risk in exchange for reduced ticket costs, though more conservative approaches include All in the Game as insurance against the favorite disappointing.

Win betting on Syntax at expected short prices creates negative expectation unless bettors possess strong conviction in her superiority over this field. More attractive wagering involves using Syntax in vertical exotics, particularly exacta and trifecta wagers where her expected dominance allows construction of tickets using her on top with various underneath combinations.

Daily double players connecting Race 3 and Race 4 should strongly weight A. P. Again with Syntax, as this combination offers reasonable probability at potentially attractive pricing depending on how the public distributes money across both races.

Selections

Win: Syntax
Place: All in the Game
Show: Joyful Mischief

Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight Turf Mile Fillies

Post Time: 2:35 PM

Maiden fillies and mares tackle one mile on turf in a race that drew seven competitive runners seeking their first victory. The maiden special weight conditions for $70,000 purse create quality field of developing fillies attempting the turf mile distance.

Pace Analysis

Multiple fillies demonstrate tactical speed sufficient to influence early pace dynamics. Surf Song showed willingness to press pace in her recent sprint effort, while Robin With a Why possesses early speed from her Bucchero pedigree. Lubie’s Music stretches from sprints to routing but showed speed in both previous efforts. The presence of multiple pace-pressing types creates potential for honest tempo without destructive pressure.

Santa Anita’s one-mile turf configuration disadvantages deep closers, who win just 19% of races at this distance. The pace scenario should develop honestly enough to provide stalkers and mid-pack runners reasonable opportunity to strike, while pure speed horses risk burning out if they engage in prolonged early duels. Projected opening quarter in 23.3-23.4 and half-mile around 47.0 represent appropriate maiden tempo at one mile on turf.​

Key Contenders

Pura Vida Princesa represents the tepid choice in this competitive maiden field for trainer Doug O’Neill. The seven-start maiden has finished in the money four times, demonstrating consistent competitiveness without yet breaking through to victory. Her most recent start represented the best effort of her career, as she pulled while rated behind slow pace, challenged for the lead in the stretch, and finished third by just a half-length.

The race produced strong subsequent results, with the winner returning to score in an allowance, the fifth-place finisher winning a maiden $50,000 next out, and the runner-up returning to finish second. These form indicators demonstrate the quality of that field and suggest Pura Vida Princesa ran well against competitive maidens. With continuation of her upward trajectory, she can secure her first victory in her eighth start.​

From post one, Pura Vida Princesa draws ideal position to save ground throughout while employing her pressing style. The inside post on Santa Anita turf performs exceptionally well at 17.8% winners, creating positional advantage for horses drawn there. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo provides competent handling, and the O’Neill barn ranks among the meet leaders with 10 wins from 51 starts (20%).

Surf Song represents Dean Keppler’s secondary choice as an eight-start maiden with five in-the-money finishes. The filly stretches back to one mile after finishing third in a recent sprint, suggesting the added distance should prove beneficial. Her pressing style positions her to track the pace and maintain striking position entering the stretch. The combination of tactical versatility and proven ability to hit the board creates solid exotic value.​

Secondary Choices

Robin With a Why tries two turns in her first start since transferring to trainer Jeff Mullins. The filly possesses sufficient early speed to contest pace, and Mullins achieved success with another Bucchero-sired filly, multiple sprint stakes winner Queen Maxima. This pedigree pattern creates confidence that Robin With a Why can handle the surface, though whether routing suits her profile remains uncertain given her sprint pedigree.

Lubie’s Music switches from dirt sprints to turf routing for trainer Richard Mandella. The filly goes sprint to route while making surface change, creating multiple variables simultaneously. Mandella’s reputation for placing horses effectively and the filly’s demonstration of tactical speed in previous efforts suggest she possesses tools to compete, though the combination of distance and surface changes creates uncertainty.​

Longshots

Saucier makes her comeback in her first start since purchase at auction for $65,000. The filly’s absence since last year creates fitness concerns, though the fact that new connections invested significant money to acquire her demonstrates their belief in her potential. First-start comebackers require careful evaluation of workout patterns and barn effectiveness with returning horses.​

Prestige Fungson and Thatsalrightmama complete the field as longer prices requiring significant improvement to factor against more experienced rivals.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The competitive nature of this field creates challenging betting proposition with multiple logical contenders. Pura Vida Princesa offers the most proven consistency with four in-the-money finishes from seven starts, though her inability to win through seven attempts raises questions about whether she possesses the necessary closing dimension. The modest morning-line odds on Pura Vida Princesa create limited win betting value, making vertical exotics more attractive wagering vehicles.

Exacta construction should emphasize Pura Vida Princesa, Surf Song, and Robin With a Why in various combinations, while trifecta players spread beneath these three to include Lubie’s Music and potentially Saucier as deeper prices. The seven-horse field creates manageable ticket costs for spreading strategies.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 players using this race as a leg face difficult decisions given the competitive nature of the field. Conservative approaches using three or four horses create expensive tickets but provide better security against surprising outcomes. Aggressive players willing to accept risk can narrow to Pura Vida Princesa and Surf Song, banking on those two dominating while acknowledging that any of several others could upset.

Selections

Win: Pura Vida Princesa
Place: Surf Song
Show: Robin With a Why

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming Cal-Bred Fillies Sprint

Post Time: 3:05 PM

California-bred maiden fillies and mares sprint six furlongs on dirt for a $12,500 claiming price in one of the card’s weakest races. The eight-horse field features experienced campaigners seeking their first victory at the lowest maiden level, creating challenging handicapping proposition where identifying which veteran will finally graduate requires careful form analysis.

Pace Analysis

Trickifult represents the clear speed of the field after finishing runner-up in her last three starts in short nighttime races at Los Alamitos. The front-runner has been racing 4 1/2 furlongs, making today’s six-furlong trip a significant distance stretch. Her natural early speed positions her to establish early command, though whether she possesses stamina to maintain that advantage through six furlongs remains the critical question.​

The presence of singular dominant speed creates potential for Trickifult to control comfortable fractions if no other horse presses aggressively. Santa Anita’s pronounced speed bias favoring horses on or near the lead makes any horse gaining uncontested leads difficult to collar, particularly at lower claiming levels where rivals lack class and closing speed to overcome ground disadvantages.​

Key Contenders

Tom’s Star receives top billing from Brad Free based on her runner-up finish at this level two starts back. The five-year-old mare subsequently pressed and cracked in an open maiden $20,000 claiming race, demonstrating that higher-level claiming company exceeds her current ability. Today’s drop back to California-bred maiden $12,500 returns her to competition she handled competitively, positioning her for improved performance.​

In her 13th career start, Tom’s Star has amassed five second-place finishes when combining her daytime and Los Alamitos evening efforts. This pattern demonstrates consistent ability to compete without winning, raising questions about whether she possesses necessary dimension to break through. However, the class drop and return to conditions where she previously ran well create optimal scenario for her to finally secure maiden victory.

Subtle Knowledge represents Dean Keppler’s top selection after finishing sixth in her modest debut for trainer Jeff Mullins. Maidens from the Mullins barn typically race into shape rather than fire first time out, making second-start improvement predictable pattern for this stable. The trainer-jockey combination of Mullins and Diego Herrera scored with second-time dirt sprint starter Dakota’s Shadow (6-1) on January 9, establishing recent precedent for this exact pattern.​

The filly finished behind Tom’s Star in her December 13 debut but likely improved substantially through that initial racing experience. Mullins operates effectively with second-start maidens, particularly in sprint races where horses gain tactical understanding through debut experience. From post four, Subtle Knowledge draws middle post that allows tactical flexibility.

Secondary Choices

Play for Me draws the outside post in the eight-horse field but has trained sharply in morning workouts, including a blowout three-furlong bullet in 36.1 on January 19. The four-year-old filly by Great Stuff makes just her second career start after debuting in December. First-time starter barn statistics often improve significantly with second-start runners as horses gain racing experience. The outside post creates positioning challenges but also provides clean break and the option to track from outside without inside traffic concerns.​

Trickifult’s front-running style and speed bias create scenario where she could steal this race despite distance concerns. Her three consecutive runner-up finishes at Los Alamitos demonstrate consistent competitiveness, and if she handles the six-furlong distance better than pedigree suggests, she becomes very tough to catch from the front.

Longshots

Reckless Ride, Smiling Rapper, Siempre Naman, and Danzing Zella complete the field as longer prices with varying degrees of form and experience. Siempre Naman switches from maiden special weight to maiden claiming after previous attempts, while Danzing Zella returns after an extended absence. Both represent exotic fill-ins at best given their form patterns relative to the top selections.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The weak nature of this field creates situation where any of several horses could break through, making single-horse confidence difficult. Tom’s Star’s consistency and return to conditions where she previously competed well positions her as logical top selection, though her 13-start maiden status raises red flags. Subtle Knowledge represents the more attractive betting proposition given her expected improvement pattern and Mullins’ effectiveness with second-start maidens.

Exacta construction should box Tom’s Star, Subtle Knowledge, Trickifult, and Play for Me in various combinations, accepting the resulting ticket cost as necessary to cover the uncertainty this weak field creates. Trifecta players can spread beneath these four to include one or two additional fillies as deeper protection.

Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6 players using this race as a leg face difficult decisions. The unpredictable nature of low-level maiden claiming races argues for spreading to four or five horses, accepting increased ticket costs as necessary to avoid elimination on a race where confident narrowing proves nearly impossible. Conservative players include all top five selections, while more aggressive handicappers narrow to Tom’s Star, Subtle Knowledge, and Trickifult.

Selections

Win: Tom’s Star
Place: Subtle Knowledge
Show: Trickifult

Race 7 – Baffle Stakes

Post Time: 3:35 PM

The $100,000 Baffle Stakes for three-year-olds highlights today’s card with seven competitive runners contesting the unique 6 1/2-furlong downhill turf course. The stakes event creates centerpiece wagering interest while launching the late Pick 3 sequence. The downhill configuration provides one of North America’s most distinctive racing challenges, requiring horses to maintain balance and rhythm while descending before flattening out for the stretch run.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario projects as highly competitive with multiple horses possessing early tactical speed. Greenwich Village likely shows early speed from his dirt sprint background, while Hey Nay Nay demonstrated pressing tactics in both previous turf sprint victories. The presence of multiple pace factors creates potential for honest to pressured early fractions, though the downhill configuration makes pure speed duels risky as horses must maintain balance while descending.

Historical data shows the downhill turf course plays fairly to all running styles, creating tactical scenarios where horses positioned throughout the field can contend. The unique descent rewards horses demonstrating superior athleticism and balance, as those struggling with the configuration often compromise their late-race effectiveness. Projected opening quarter around 22.1-22.3 and four furlongs in approximately 43.4-43.8 represent honest tempo for stakes-quality three-year-olds.​

Key Contenders

Hey Nay Nay (IRE) emerges as the top selection after cutting back from a mile to one turn following disappointing third-place finish as heavy favorite in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille. The Irish-bred son of No Nay Never by trainer John Sadler may have been positioned too far off pace in that mile route, compromising his ability to make effective late run. Today’s cutback to sprint distance returns him to conditions where he excels.

Hey Nay Nay won both turf sprints during his two-year-old campaign, demonstrating clear effectiveness at abbreviated distances. The colt runs best with forwardly placed trip, and downhill configuration suits his pressing style perfectly. Off two months since the Grade 3 DeMille, Hey Nay Nay has worked well for his return, showing the sharp morning drills that Sadler horses typically display when ready for peak efforts.

Jockey Hector Berrios returns after riding Hey Nay Nay to victory in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf, reestablishing the successful partnership. Berrios ranks among the meet’s most effective riders with nine wins from 56 starts (16%) through January 24, and his previous success aboard Hey Nay Nay creates confidence in tactical execution. From post three, Hey Nay Nay draws favorable position to secure pressing trip without inside or outside disadvantages.​

The Grade 3-winning credentials and proven short turf effectiveness position Hey Nay Nay as the horse to beat. If he returns to the form he showed winning both turf sprints at two, he possesses superior class to handle these rivals. The cutback in distance after the disappointing mile effort creates ideal pattern for bounce-back performance.

Later Than Planned (IRE) represents the main threat as come-from-behind turf sprint stakes winner. The Irish-bred colt by Sioux Nation won a stakes two starts back before finishing creditable sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Off nearly three months since that BC effort, Later Than Planned shortens in distance after the BC sprint attempt, creating similar pattern to Hey Nay Nay’s cutback strategy.

The late-running style provides tactical contrast to Hey Nay Nay’s pressing approach, and the downhill configuration’s fairness to all running styles allows closer types reasonable opportunity to mount effective rallies. Trainer Philip D’Amato ranks among Southern California’s elite with consistent success at major tracks, and his placement of Later Than Planned in this spot demonstrates confidence in the colt’s readiness.

CRITICAL NOTE: Jockey Umberto Rispoli suffered multiple fractures (ankle, tibia, fibula) in a spill at Gulfstream Park on January 24. Rispoli had been scheduled to ride Later Than Planned but will miss extended time due to his injuries. The rider replacement significantly impacts Later Than Planned’s tactical execution, as Rispoli ranked among the meet leaders before his injury. The substitute jockey’s identity and capabilities create uncertainty in evaluating Later Than Planned’s chances.

Secondary Choices

Greenwich Village switches to turf in his third career start for trainer Bob Baffert. The Quality Road colt removes blinkers after pressing hot pace and faltering in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on dirt. Today’s surface switch to turf creates significant question mark, though Greenwich Village possesses strong turf pedigree through his dam, a fast Australian turf sprinter who won Group 3 stakes and placed in Group 2 competition in England.

Baffert’s decision to try turf suggests confidence that Greenwich Village can handle grass, and Quality Road’s success as a turf sire supports the surface switch. From post two with Juan Hernandez aboard, Greenwich Village draws ideal tactical setup to employ his natural speed. If he breaks alertly and establishes early lead while adapting successfully to turf, he could prove very difficult to catch given his tactical advantage. The surface switch creates risk, but the pedigree and Hall of Fame trainer’s judgment suggest legitimate winning chance.

Cal’s Goal represents Tim Yakteen’s entry after finishing in the Grade 3 level. The gelding receives weight allowance for non-winners of sweepstakes, carrying 122 pounds compared to 124 for Hey Nay Nay and Later Than Planned. The two-pound advantage provides minor benefit, though Cal’s Goal faces challenging task overcoming horses with superior credentials.

Longshots

Won For Lou makes his stakes debut for trainer Doug O’Neill after mixed recent form. The Florida-bred Bucchero colt finished fifth in the Grade 3 Zuma Beach in October after leading determinedly through seven furlongs before tiring. Trainer O’Neill subsequently tried sprinting Won For Lou at Del Mar with disappointing results in both optional claiming efforts. Today’s stakes assignment represents another test of his ability at this level.​​

From post one with Edwin Maldonado aboard, Won For Lou draws inside post that requires tactical perfection to save ground throughout. At morning-line odds of 30-1, he represents deep exotic price for handicappers convinced he can bounce back to his summer maiden victory form.

Track Tiger and Bust Out complete the field as longer prices with varying credentials at this level.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The competitive nature of the Baffle Stakes creates challenging betting proposition with legitimate contenders holding different tactical profiles. Hey Nay Nay’s proven short turf effectiveness and class advantage position him as deserving favorite, though Greenwich Village’s turf debut creates wildcard element that adds uncertainty. The rider change on Later Than Planned due to Rispoli’s injury significantly impacts that colt’s chances and creates opportunity for others to capitalize on his compromised tactical execution.

Win betting concentrates on Hey Nay Nay and Greenwich Village, with exacta construction emphasizing those two with Later Than Planned despite the rider change concerns. Trifecta players spread beneath the top three to include Cal’s Goal and potentially Won For Lou as deeper exotic prices. The seven-horse field creates manageable ticket costs for spreading strategies.

Pick 3 players using the Baffle as the first leg should strongly weight Hey Nay Nay and Greenwich Village, potentially including Later Than Planned as insurance despite the rider situation. The stakes race generates significant betting interest as the centerpiece event of the card, and the quality field creates attractive exotic wagering opportunities.

Selections

Win: Hey Nay Nay (IRE)
Place: Later Than Planned (IRE)
Show: Greenwich Village

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming Cal-Bred Mile

Post Time: 4:05 PM

California-bred older horses contest one mile on dirt in an allowance optional claiming race offering $70,000 in purse money. The competitive nine-horse field features horses entered for the allowance conditions or claiming for $20,000, creating mixed-ability field where class and current form determine outcomes.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests multiple horses possessing tactical speed without singular dominant front-runner. Keithing Thunder, Majestic Palisades, and potentially others show front-running or pressing tendencies, creating honest to moderately pressured early fractions. The one-mile distance provides sufficient time for tactical development, though Santa Anita’s pronounced speed bias in dirt routes, where 51-53% of winners come from early positions, rewards horses securing favorable position without burning excessive energy.​

Projected opening quarter in 23.2-23.4 and half-mile around 46.4-47.0 represent appropriate tempo for allowance/optional claiming horses at one mile. The pace should develop honestly enough to provide stalkers reasonable opportunity while making late-running types work hard to overcome ground deficits.

Key Contenders

Berlin Wall stretches to two turns for the first time after disappointing sixth-place finish in a turf sprint 10 days ago. The four-year-old Practical Joke colt for trainer Steve Knapp showed promise in several previous starts before that turf misfire, where he never gained traction after encountering early trouble. Today’s return to dirt and stretch to routing create significant tactical changes that should benefit his style.​

Knapp operates effectively at Santa Anita with career-long success, and the decision to stretch Berlin Wall suggests confidence the colt can handle added distance. From post two, Berlin Wall draws ideal position to secure stalking or pressing trip behind the pace. The inside post saves ground throughout, critical advantage on a track favoring horses avoiding wide journeys. If Berlin Wall appreciates the added distance and rebounds from his poor turf effort, he possesses sufficient class to handle these state-bred rivals.

Team Player represents the lightly raced alternative with just three career starts, all resulting in in-the-money finishes. The four-year-old gelding finished third in a similar California-bred allowance race in his most recent start, demonstrating competitiveness at this level. The consistent in-the-money pattern suggests he possesses sufficient ability to compete without yet showing the finishing dimension necessary for victory.

Team Player will rally from behind, employing late-running tactics that face disadvantage given Santa Anita’s bias against closers in dirt routes. However, his improving pattern and limited experience suggest continued progression remains possible. If the pace develops honestly and compromises the early speed types, Team Player can mount effective late rally to catch tiring leaders.

Secondary Choices

Left Hand Man co-tops the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer Speed Figure (83) after rallying for second over three returning rivals on December 29. The six-year-old gelding demonstrates improving form pattern, and trainer Peter Miller’s reputation for placing horses effectively creates confidence in the spot. The late-running style faces track bias challenges, though his superior recent form figures suggest he possesses sufficient class edge to overcome positional disadvantages.​

CRITICAL NOTE: Left Hand Man had been scheduled for Umberto Rispoli before the jockey’s injury. The rider change impacts tactical execution, as Rispoli’s patient handling suited Left Hand Man’s come-from-behind style. The replacement jockey’s identity and tactical approach create uncertainty in evaluating the gelding’s chances.​

Stolen Treasure adds significant intrigue as a Mark Glatt trainee, as the barn leads the meet’s trainer standings with exceptional 26-27% strike rate. Glatt’s horses consistently deliver winning performances, and Stolen Treasure’s placement in this spot by the meet-leading trainer demands respect. The Ricardo Gonzalez mount creates capable jockey-trainer partnership.

Longshots

The Gypsy Cowboy represents Steve Knapp’s second entry alongside Berlin Wall. Keithing Thunder, Crypto Ride, Majestic Palisades, and Pass the Baton complete the field with varying credentials. Pass the Baton returns to Santa Anita main track where he won a similar race three starts back, creating bounce-back potential after two subpar turf efforts.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The competitive nine-horse field creates challenging handicapping proposition with multiple logical contenders. Berlin Wall’s class and favorable pace scenario position him as logical top selection despite his recent poor turf effort, though the route debut creates minor uncertainty. Team Player represents solid value alternative given his consistent in-the-money pattern and improving trajectory.

Exacta construction should emphasize Berlin Wall, Team Player, Left Hand Man (despite rider concerns), and Stolen Treasure in various combinations. The nine-horse field creates manageable three and four-horse boxes, while trifecta players spread beneath these selections to include Pass the Baton and potentially other longer prices.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 players using this race as a leg face difficult decisions given the competitive nature and large field size. Conservative approaches using four or five horses create expensive tickets but provide security against surprising outcomes. More aggressive players narrow to Berlin Wall, Team Player, and Stolen Treasure (respecting Glatt’s meet-leading form).

Selections

Win: Berlin Wall
Place: Team Player
Show: Left Hand Man

Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight Three-Year-Old Turf Route

Post Time: 4:35 PM

The card concludes with three-year-old maidens contesting 1 1/8 miles on turf, creating challenging handicapping proposition as young horses attempt this demanding distance for the first time. The nine-horse field features several intriguing prospects making routing debuts while others seek to build on previous route efforts.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests moderate tempo with several horses possessing sufficient tactical speed to influence early fractions without singular dominant speed horse. Army Man, House of Mischief, and potentially Saharian show early foot in previous starts, creating foundation for honest pace without destructive pressure. The 1 1/8-mile distance provides ample time for horses to settle into rhythm before making moves approaching the stretch.

Santa Anita’s turf route at 1 1/8 miles favors closers significantly more than shorter turf distances, with late-running types winning 34% of races at this distance. This statistical pattern creates more favorable conditions for come-from-behind horses compared to sprint distances, where closers face significant disadvantages. Projected opening quarter around 24.0-24.2 and half-mile near 48.2-48.4 represent appropriate maiden tempo at 1 1/8 miles on turf.​

Key Contenders

Essos emerges as the top selection making his crucial third career start for meet-leading trainer Mark Glatt. The three-year-old Liam’s Map colt finished fourth in his second start on December 29 when switched to turf, facing several of today’s rivals. That effort represented clear improvement from his debut, and today’s equipment additions of blinkers and Lasix suggest Glatt believes Essos can make another forward move.

The colt fired a “best of 72” bullet five-furlong workout in 59.0 flat on January 18, demonstrating sharp training form approaching today’s start. The exceptional workout indicates peak fitness and readiness for best career effort. Glatt’s leading-trainer status (26-27% strike rate) creates confidence that when the barn adds equipment and shows sharp works, the horse typically delivers improved performance.

CRITICAL UPDATE: Essos had been scheduled for Umberto Rispoli, who ranked as the meet’s leading jockey before his injury. The last-minute rider change significantly impacts tactical execution and creates uncertainty in evaluating Essos’s chances. However, Glatt’s meet-leading form and the horse’s improving pattern with equipment additions suggest he remains formidable despite the jockey switch.​

From post five, Essos draws middle position allowing tactical flexibility. The blinkers should enhance focus and help him settle into rhythm, while Lasix addition can improve breathing efficiency. Third-start timing aligns perfectly with typical improvement patterns for developing three-year-olds, and the combination of sharp workouts, equipment additions, and elite trainer creates optimal winning scenario.

House of Mischief finished second in the same December 29 race where Essos ran fourth. The gelding benefitted from ground-saving trip in the first route of his career, demonstrating tactical understanding while positioned inside throughout. The improving pattern suggests continued progression remains possible, and his proven ability at the distance creates confidence he can handle today’s assignment.​

From outside post eight of nine, House of Mischief faces positioning challenges requiring skillful ride to save ground or wider trip that risks losing valuable real estate. Jockey Kyle Frey possesses sufficient experience to handle the tactical demands, though the difficult post assignment creates obstacles to overcome.

Secondary Choices

Army Man represents another logical contender after removing blinkers and adding Lasix. The gelding flashed good speed in his last two turf route attempts, suggesting tactical versatility to employ pressing or stalking tactics. The equipment changes indicate trainer Michael McCarthy believes the adjustments will unlock improvement, and McCarthy’s reputation for skillful placement creates confidence in the spot.

The blinker removal suggests McCarthy wants Army Man to relax better and rate kindly behind pace rather than use excessive energy pressing early. Combined with Lasix addition, the equipment changes create positive indicators. From post four, Army Man draws favorable position for tactical execution.

Charlie’s Curlin improves gradually for trainer Jeff Mullins. The Curlin colt makes his third start of the form cycle after finishing third when facing several of these in the December 29 race. Third-start maidens typically show their best efforts as they gain racing experience and tactical understanding, positioning Charlie’s Curlin for continued improvement. Jockey Hector Berrios returns after riding him last time, creating continuity in tactical approach.​

Longshots

Out of the Woods makes his debut for powerful trainer Philip D’Amato, who consistently develops quality maiden runners into allowance and stakes performers. First-time starters from elite barns always deserve respect, though the demanding 1 1/8-mile distance creates challenging debut assignment.

Prime Artist (FR), Dinkum, Saharian, and Mendel’s Tune complete the field with varying credentials and experience levels. Dinkum makes his return from also-eligible status, while Saharian ships in for trainer Jeff Mullins after previous efforts showed modest ability.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The competitive nature of this maiden route creates challenging betting proposition with multiple improving three-year-olds. Essos offers the strongest combination of improving form, sharp workouts, equipment additions, and elite trainer despite the last-minute jockey change. The price likely reflects public awareness of these factors, making win betting value questionable unless Essos drifts higher than expected in late betting.

Exacta construction should emphasize Essos, House of Mischief, Army Man, and Charlie’s Curlin in various combinations, with trifecta players spreading beneath these four to include Out of the Woods as a D’Amato first-time starter with potential. The nine-horse field creates manageable ticket costs for boxing strategies.

Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 players using this finale as the final leg should strongly weight Essos and Army Man, potentially including House of Mischief and Charlie’s Curlin as protection. The maiden route’s unpredictable nature argues for spreading to at least three horses, accepting increased ticket costs as necessary to avoid elimination on a race where confident narrowing proves difficult.

Selections

Win: Essos
Place: House of Mischief
Show: Army Man

Jockey Notes and Insights

The jockey standings through January 24 reveal significant competitive balance among the colony’s elite riders, with multiple jockeys demonstrating strong form throughout the meet. Understanding jockey patterns, specialties, and current form provides crucial edges for handicapping individual races and constructing exotic wagers.

Umberto Rispoli entered the weekend as the meet’s leading rider with impressive 15 wins from 70 starts (21%) and exceptional 60% in-the-money percentage. However, Rispoli suffered catastrophic injuries in a spill during the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint on January 24, sustaining fractures to his ankle, tibia, and fibula. The injuries require surgery and extended rehabilitation, eliminating him from today’s card where he held four scheduled mounts including Later Than Planned in the Baffle Stakes.

Rispoli’s absence creates significant rider changes throughout the card, impacting tactical execution on multiple horses. The injury represents major loss for the jockey colony and creates opportunities for other riders to capture his mounts and potentially gain momentum in the standings race. Handicappers must evaluate replacement jockeys carefully, as Rispoli’s patient handling and tactical understanding cannot be easily replicated.

Kazushi Kimura ranks second in the standings with 13 wins from 59 starts (22%) and solid 49% in-the-money rate. The Japanese-born rider demonstrates exceptional finishing ability and tactical versatility, equally comfortable pressing pace or closing from behind. Kimura excels on turf with his patient European-influenced style, making him particularly effective in grass routes where his ground-saving tactics and strong finishing kicks prove decisive. His mount today on Syntax in Race 4 represents significant upgrade and increases the filly’s winning probability.​

Juan Hernandez holds third position with 12 wins from 60 starts (20%) through January 24 while maintaining exceptional 58% in-the-money percentage. The Mexican-born rider has established himself as Santa Anita’s premier jockey over recent years, winning the last four meet titles with dominant performances. Hernandez possesses complete tactical skill set, demonstrating ability to rate horses effectively, time runs perfectly, and finish strongly in tight situations.

His partnership with Bob Baffert produces exceptional results, with Hernandez riding for the Hall of Fame trainer regularly on high-profile horses. The combination won three stakes on opening day of the 2022-23 Classic Meet, establishing immediate momentum. Hernandez’s tactical judgment and pace evaluation rank among the circuit’s best, making him particularly effective in stakes races where pace scenarios become complex. His rides today on All in the Game (Race 4) and Greenwich Village (Race 7) warrant significant respect.​

Emisael Jaramillo ranks fourth with 11 wins from 59 starts (19%). The Venezuelan rider recently relocated from Gulfstream Park to Santa Anita and has quickly established himself as one of the meet’s most effective riders. His partnership with Doug O’Neill produces exceptional results, with the trainer-jockey combination operating at 37% strike rate with remarkable $5.42 return on investment over the past year. This statistical pattern demonstrates extraordinary effectiveness when these two team up.

Jaramillo demonstrates strong gate awareness and tactical understanding, making him particularly effective on speed horses where his aggressive early positioning creates winning trips. His rides today on A. P. Again (Race 3) and Pura Vida Princesa (Race 5) represent high-percentage opportunities given his exceptional chemistry with O’Neill. Handicappers should respect any O’Neill-Jaramillo combination, as their recent results suggest near-automatic improvement when they team up.

Hector Berrios completes the top five with nine wins from 56 starts (16%) and strong 50% in-the-money rate. The young rider demonstrates improving form throughout the meet and shows particular effectiveness on turf, where his patient European-influenced style allows horses to settle and finish strongly. Berrios has ridden Hey Nay Nay to victory previously, including their Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf triumph, creating confidence in their partnership for today’s Baffle Stakes.​

Ricardo Gonzalez maintains solid form with 19 starts through mid-January, demonstrating consistency if not spectacular winning percentages. The experienced journeyman excels at rating horses and adapting tactics to specific situations, making him particularly valuable on horses requiring patient handling. His experience and tactical understanding make him reliable choice on horses with closing styles.​

Edwin Maldonado ranks among the colony’s most experienced riders, demonstrating consistency across all surface and distance combinations. His patient handling and strong finishing ability make him particularly effective on turf, where his European-influenced style allows horses to settle and produce their best efforts. Maldonado’s mount on Won For Lou in the Baffle Stakes creates intriguing longshot possibility given their previous partnership success.

Trainer Notes and Insights

The trainer standings reveal clear separation at the top, with several barns demonstrating exceptional form throughout the meet. Understanding trainer patterns, specializations, and recent performance creates critical handicapping edges across all race types.

Doug O’Neill leads the standings with 10 wins from 51 starts (20%) through January 24, continuing his dominance at Santa Anita that has produced multiple meet titles over his storied career. The Hall of Fame trainer demonstrated his current sharp form on Friday, January 9, when he combined with Jaramillo for a winning treble, nearly matching a Santa Anita record for winners on a single card.

O’Neill’s excellence spans all race types and surfaces, though he shows particular effectiveness with horses making third starts of form cycles and those adding equipment changes like Lasix. His statistics with maiden special weight to maiden claiming droppers demonstrate 30% strike rate with positive ROI over five years, establishing reliable pattern for identifying horses ready to graduate when dropped into claiming company. When O’Neill pairs with Jaramillo, their 37% strike rate and $5.42 ROI creates automatic upgrade for any horse they team up on.​

The barn’s entries today include A. P. Again (Race 3), Pura Vida Princesa (Race 5), and Won For Lou (Race 7). Each represents logical contender in their respective races, with A. P. Again and Pura Vida Princesa pairing with Jaramillo to create the potent combination that operates at exceptional strike rates.

Mark Glatt leads all trainers with 26-27% strike rate while ranking among the top three in earnings. Glatt earned the Santa Anita training title at the previous meet (December 2024-April 2025) with 31-27-16 record from 122 starts, demonstrating consistent excellence across extended campaigns. His runners earned nearly $1.55 million during that meet, establishing him as one of Southern California’s premier conditioners.

Glatt excels with all horse types but shows particular effectiveness with California-bred allowance and stakes horses, where his patient development approach allows horses to maximize their potential. His statistics at Santa Anita demonstrate 23.6% career strike rate from 1,674 starts with over $13.2 million in earnings. When Glatt runners show sharp workouts approaching starts, they typically deliver peak efforts, creating reliable betting patterns.​

His entry today includes Essos in Race 9, representing one of the card’s most interesting betting propositions. The colt’s sharp bullet workout, equipment additions, and third-start timing align perfectly with Glatt’s successful patterns, though the last-minute rider change due to Rispoli’s injury creates complications in evaluating the horse’s chances.

Bob Baffert maintains his position among the meet’s leading trainers despite racing fewer horses than his peak years. The Hall of Fame conditioner has captured the La Canada Stakes six times, including yesterday’s victory with Nafisa, demonstrating continued excellence in major events. His current form shows solid if not spectacular numbers, though Baffert’s reputation for peaking horses for important races makes any of his runners dangerous regardless of recent statistics.

Baffert’s entry today includes Greenwich Village in the Baffle Stakes, attempting turf for the first time after removing blinkers. The Hall of Fame trainer’s decision to try grass suggests confidence the colt can handle the surface, and Baffert’s judgment in such matters typically proves accurate. When Baffert makes significant equipment or surface changes, handicappers should respect his expertise.

Michael McCarthy ranks among Southern California’s most consistent trainers, developing reputation for patience and skillful placement. Based at Santa Anita year-round, McCarthy understands the track’s nuances and places horses effectively in appropriate spots. His career highlights include winning the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with City of Light, the 2021 Preakness Stakes with Rombauer, and the 2025 Preakness with Journalism.​

McCarthy demonstrates particular effectiveness with turf routers, where his patient development allows horses to mature into their optimal distances. His entry today includes Army Man in Race 9, removing blinkers and adding Lasix in attempt to unlock improvement. McCarthy’s equipment changes typically indicate he’s identified specific issues to address, creating positive angles when he makes such adjustments.

Peter Miller maintains solid form at Santa Anita despite reduced stable size in recent years. Miller’s career accomplishments include back-to-back Breeders’ Cup doubles in 2017-2018, when Roy H and Stormy Liberal each won their respective Breeders’ Cup races in consecutive years. This historic achievement demonstrated Miller’s ability to peak horses for championship-level events.

Miller excels with sprinters and dirt horses, showing particular effectiveness with claiming horses that he can cycle through condition progressions. His entry today includes Left Hand Man in Race 8, though the loss of Rispoli as rider creates complications. Miller’s placement typically proves accurate, and Left Hand Man’s recent form suggests he belongs in this company despite the rider change.

Richard Mandella represents one of California racing’s most distinguished trainers with Hall of Fame credentials earned over five decades. The veteran conditioner demonstrates patient approach that allows horses to develop at appropriate paces without rushing their progress. Mandella shows particular effectiveness with turf horses and those transitioning from dirt to grass, utilizing his deep experience to identify horses capable of surface switches.

John Sadler trains Hey Nay Nay for today’s Baffle Stakes, bringing decades of experience and multiple championship-level victories. Sadler demonstrates exceptional effectiveness with turf horses, particularly European-bred runners that he acclimates to American racing conditions. His Grade 1 victories and consistent success in major events establish him as elite conditioner whose judgment in placing horses proves reliably accurate.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Today’s card presents exceptional wagering opportunities across multiple races and wager types. The Pick 6 carryover of $51,027 beginning in Race 4 creates centerpiece betting interest, while the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 carryover exceeding $149,000 adds substantial pool money. These carryovers generate increased betting action that can create value opportunities for informed handicappers who identify horses the public overlooks.

Horizontal Exotic Strategy

The Pick 6 sequence beginning in Race 4 requires careful construction balancing risk tolerance with ticket costs. Race 4 presents the most straightforward decision where Syntax represents logical single for aggressive players, though conservative approaches include All in the Game as insurance. Race 5’s competitive maiden turf mile argues for spreading to three or four horses (Pura Vida Princesa, Surf Song, Robin With a Why, Lubie’s Music), accepting increased costs to avoid elimination.

Race 6’s weak maiden claiming sprint forces wider spreading to four or five horses given the unpredictability of low-level maidens. The Baffle Stakes in Race 7 allows narrowing to Hey Nay Nay and Greenwich Village as primary selections, potentially including Later Than Planned despite rider concerns. Race 8’s competitive allowance suggests spreading to three or four selections, while Race 9’s maiden route requires similar approach.

Sample Pick 6 construction:

• Race 4: Syntax, All in the Game (2 horses)
• Race 5: Pura Vida Princesa, Surf Song, Robin With a Why (3 horses)
• Race 6: Tom’s Star, Subtle Knowledge, Trickifult, Play for Me (4 horses)
• Race 7: Hey Nay Nay, Greenwich Village (2 horses)
• Race 8: Berlin Wall, Team Player, Stolen Treasure (3 horses)
• Race 9: Essos, House of Mischief, Army Man (3 horses)

Total combinations: 2 x 3 x 4 x 2 x 3 x 3 = 432 combinations at $2 = $864

This represents conservative approach providing reasonable coverage while managing costs. More aggressive players can reduce Race 5, 6, 8, and 9 to fewer selections, significantly lowering ticket costs while accepting increased risk.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 Strategies

The late Pick 3 beginning with the Baffle Stakes (Races 7-8-9) creates attractive wagering vehicle with manageable costs. Sample construction:

• Race 7: Hey Nay Nay, Greenwich Village, Later Than Planned
• Race 8: Berlin Wall, Team Player, Left Hand Man, Stolen Treasure
• Race 9: Essos, House of Mischief, Army Man

Total: 3 x 4 x 3 = 36 combinations at $1 = $36

Pick 4 sequences can begin with Race 4 (joining Pick 6), Race 5, or Race 6, each creating different risk-reward profiles. Early Pick 4 starting Race 4 creates expensive tickets requiring significant spreading in multiple competitive races, while later Pick 4 sequences allow tighter construction with reduced costs.

Vertical Exotic Value Plays

Several races present attractive vertical exotic opportunities where key horses create foundation for profitable exacta and trifecta construction:

Race 3: A. P. Again’s class edge creates exacta opportunity using him on top with Very Quiet, Flashy Fritz beneath. Box these three in trifecta while adding One Happy Dude as fourth selection for minimal additional cost.

Race 4: Syntax represents Brad Free’s best bet and logical exacta key, though her expected short price reduces profit potential. More attractive approach constructs exactas using Syntax on top with All in the Game, Joyful Mischief underneath at potentially generous prices if public overloads on Syntax for place.

Race 7 (Baffle Stakes): The competitive stakes field creates excellent trifecta and superfecta opportunities. Key Hey Nay Nay and Greenwich Village in exacta while spreading beneath in trifecta to include Later Than Planned, Cal’s Goal, Won For Lou. Sample trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3,7 / 2,3,4,7 creates 8 combinations covering top two finishing in either order with several underneath options.

Race 9: Essos’s sharp form and equipment additions suggest win probability justifying exacta and trifecta plays. Key Essos on top with House of Mischief, Army Man, Charlie’s Curlin beneath, while reversing for insurance. Spread deeper in trifecta to include Out of the Woods as potential D’Amato first-timer upset.

Daily Double and Rolling Exotic Opportunities

Daily doubles connecting competitive races create value opportunities when public distributes money based on individual race favorites rather than considering combination probabilities. The Race 3-4 double connecting A. P. Again with Syntax offers reasonable probability at potentially attractive pricing if either drifts higher than expected in late betting.

The Race 7-8 double connecting Baffle Stakes with the allowance creates interesting proposition, as the stakes race generates heavy betting volume that may create overlay opportunities in Race 8 exacta and trifecta pools when carryover money from failing Pick 6 tickets redistributes.

Single-Race Win Betting Value

While horizontal exotics create primary focus given the carryovers, several races present win betting value on horses offering legitimate winning chances at generous prices:

Pacific Quest (Race 1): Tactical speed advantage and class credentials create value if public overloads on Cathal based purely on class while overlooking pace scenario concerns.

Irish Element (Race 2): O’Neill-Jaramillo combination at potentially generous price given their exceptional statistics together.

Very Quiet (Race 3): Class drop and proven ability at this level create value alternative to likely short-priced A. P. Again.

Surf Song (Race 5): Consistent in-the-money performer with tactical versatility at potentially generous price in competitive maiden field.

Subtle Knowledge (Race 6): Second-start improvement pattern for Mullins barn creates value proposition following their recent success with similar pattern.

The combination of carryover money, competitive races, and unpredictable maiden events creates exceptional wagering environment for informed handicappers willing to construct thoughtful tickets balancing risk and reward. The key to successful wagering involves identifying races allowing confident narrowing while spreading appropriately in competitive events where multiple horses possess legitimate winning chances.