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Santa Anita Park presents a competitive nine-race card today with excellent weather conditions and a substantial Pick 6 carryover providing extra wagering value. The track conditions are ideal with a fast dirt surface and firm turf, while temperatures are expected to reach 86°F under fair skies with light westerly winds.
Track Conditions and Weather
Current conditions at Santa Anita are optimal for racing with a fast dirt surface and firm turf course set at 30 feet. The weather forecast calls for fair conditions with temperatures climbing to 86°F and only a 20% chance of rain, creating ideal racing conditions for both dirt and turf events. Light westerly winds at 3 mph should have minimal impact on race outcomes.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Starter Allowance (1:00 PM)
1 Mile Turf – Purse $36,000
This starter allowance for fillies and mares features horses that have previously started for $50,000 or less claiming tags. The field of six presents a competitive opener.
Key Contenders:
Ima Joker (1) appears to be the morning line favorite at 2-1 with trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Hector Berrios combining for what Racing Dudes projects as their top selection. O’Neill’s stable has been productive this meet.
Tiaraqueen (GB) (2) brings European breeding and the services of Umberto Rispoli, who has been effective on turf runners throughout the meet.
Secondary Choices:
Princess Snow (4) gets the benefit of Mike Smith’s experience and represents the stable of James Cassidy, which has shown improvement with recent turf runners.
Pace Analysis: This turf mile should develop into a moderate pace scenario with most runners possessing tactical speed. The rail position at 30 feet may favor horses with early positioning.
Selection: Ima Joker (1) to win, with Princess Snow (4) as the value play in the exacta underneath.
Race 2 – Maiden Optional Claiming (1:30 PM)
6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $35,000
A competitive maiden field for two-year-olds with several first-time starters from prominent connections.
Key Contenders:
Lank (6) represents the Bob Baffert stable with Juan Hernandez aboard, a combination that has produced exceptional results with a 50% win rate this season. Racing Dudes projects him as their selection at 9-5 odds.
Captivator (7) makes his debut for trainer John Sadler with Hector Berrios riding, bringing strong breeding credentials to this competitive field.
Secondary Choices:
L Rankin (2) from the Peter Miller barn gets Ricardo Gonzalez and could provide value at anticipated longer odds.
Pace Analysis: This sprint distance should produce honest early fractions with several runners showing natural speed in their works.
Selection: Lank (6) to win, with Captivator (7) for value in exacta combinations.
Race 3 – Claiming (2:00 PM)
6 Furlongs Turf – Purse $34,000
A large field of 12 runners competing at the $25,000 claiming level creates multiple wagering opportunities.
Key Contenders:
Simplexity (IRE) (6) gets the services of Hector Berrios for trainer Jeff Mullins and is projected as Racing Dudes’ selection at 9-2 odds. The Irish-bred runner has shown consistency at this level.
Agency (2) brings Mike Smith’s expertise and represents Mark Glatt’s stable, which has been effective with turf runners.
Longshot Consideration:
Jetovator (8) at longer odds could provide value with Antonio Fresu riding for Peter Eurton’s stable.
Pace Analysis: The large field and sprint distance over turf should create a hot early pace, potentially setting up closers.
Selection: Simplexity (IRE) (6) to win, with Agency (2) and Jetovator (8) in exacta combinations.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming (2:31 PM)
1 Mile Dirt – Purse $20,000
A competitive maiden claiming event for fillies and mares at the $20,000 level.
Key Contenders:
Caitlin Fever (7) from Peter Miller’s barn gets Antonio Fresu and is projected as Racing Dudes’ selection at 3-1 odds. Miller’s operation has been particularly effective with first-time starters.
Greta’s Ghost (3) brings the combination of Kyle Frey and trainer George Papaprodromou, showing promise in recent works.
Secondary Choices:
Strawberry Tizzy (6) represents Sean McCarthy’s stable with Tyler Baze aboard, providing veteran experience.
Selection: Caitlin Fever (7) to win, with Greta’s Ghost (3) as the exacta companion.
Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming (3:03 PM)
6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf – Purse $63,000
Race 5 presents the most intriguing betting race of the Santa Anita card, featuring fillies and mares on the unique downhill turf configuration that typically produces exciting finishes and excellent wagering value. This allowance optional claiming event for horses that have never won $21,000 twice offers multiple angles and competitive options across the 11-horse field.
Track Configuration and Distance Analysis
The downhill turf course at Santa Anita creates a distinctive challenge where horses build momentum rapidly in the early stages before leveling out for the final furlong. At 6 1/2 furlongs, this distance favors horses with tactical speed who can position early and maintain their advantage, while also allowing for dramatic late-running rallies as the course flattens out.
Key Contenders Analysis
Bit’s Tiger Magic (6) – Top Selection
Jockey: Juan Hernandez | Trainer: Peter Miller | Weight: 124 lbs | ML: 7/5
Bit’s Tiger Magic emerges as the consensus favorite across multiple expert selections, with both Sports from the Basement ranking her as their top choice at 1.40 morning line odds and a strong algorithmic rating. The combination of Juan Hernandez and Peter Miller has been exceptionally successful this meet, with Hernandez leading the jockey standings and Miller’s stable showing particular strength with turf runners.
The four-year-old filly brings solid recent form into this contest with a pattern of 1-1-1-1-3 finishes in her last five starts, demonstrating remarkable consistency at this level. Her recent workouts have been sharp, and importantly, she will race with blinkers off today, potentially indicating increased confidence from connections. The equipment change could allow for improved focus on the challenging downhill configuration.
Her breeding by Smiling Tiger out of Magic School provides the stamina needed for this distance while maintaining the speed necessary for the downhill course’s early pace demands. The Miller stable has excelled with turf runners throughout the current meet, and Hernandez’s tactical brilliance makes this combination formidable.
Egyptian Mau (SAF) – Value Alternative
Jockey: Mike Smith | Trainer: Neil Drysdale | Weight: 124 lbs | ML: 3/1
Egyptian Mau represents the most compelling value play in the race, with Keeneland’s expert handicapper selecting her as the top choice at 3/1 morning line odds while Sports from the Basement rates her second in their algorithmic rankings. The South African-bred five-year-old mare brings impressive credentials with Hall of Fame trainer Neil Drysdale and legendary jockey Mike Smith combining forces.
The mare’s recent comeback performance at Del Mar showcased her quality, where she closed strongly to finish second by just a neck at five furlongs after starting at 30/1 odds. That performance demonstrated both her fitness and her closing ability, crucial attributes for success on Santa Anita’s downhill turf configuration. Her form pattern of 10/58-32 indicates she has been competitive at higher levels and could be sitting on a peak performance.
Drysdale’s exceptional record with turf horses, particularly mares, combined with Smith’s unparalleled experience on the downhill course makes this a dangerous combination at generous odds. The Team Valor International ownership group typically campaigns quality horses, and their patience in bringing this mare back suggests significant confidence.
Secondary Contenders
Jane Austen (4)
Jockey: Abel Lezcano | Trainer: Mark Glatt | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 5/1
Jane Austen receives strong backing from Keeneland’s handicapper as the second choice and offers solid value at 5/1 morning line odds. The Mark Glatt-trained four-year-old filly gets the services of Abel Lezcano, who has shown excellent form on turf throughout the meet. Glatt’s stable has been particularly effective with allowance-level turf runners, and the weight advantage at 122 pounds compared to the top two choices could prove decisive in a competitive finish.
Home Game (9)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura | Trainer: Philip D’Amato | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 9/2
Home Game represents another live alternative from the Philip D’Amato stable with Kazushi Kimura riding. D’Amato has shown consistent success with turf runners, and Kimura’s tactical style fits well with the demands of the downhill configuration. Sports from the Basement rates her fourth in their algorithmic rankings, suggesting underlying value.
Longshot Considerations
Tahini (5)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro | Trainer: George Papaprodromou | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 10/1
Tahini offers the most intriguing longshot value in the race, receiving support from Keeneland’s handicapper as the third choice despite 10/1 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly also races with blinkers off today, similar to Bit’s Tiger Magic, suggesting connections feel the equipment change will benefit her performance. Mirco Demuro brings European riding experience that could prove valuable on the unique downhill configuration.
Pace Analysis
The downhill turf configuration typically produces moderate to fast early fractions as horses naturally accelerate down the hill before encountering the uphill finish. With multiple horses showing early tactical speed, including Bit’s Tiger Magic, Jane Austen, and Home Game, the early pace should be honest without being suicidal.
Egyptian Mau’s closing style could be perfectly suited to this scenario, as she can settle off the early pace and make her move as the field encounters the uphill portion of the course. The pace setup appears favorable for horses with tactical speed who can position within striking distance early.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Egyptian Mau (3) at 3/1 or better represents excellent value given the quality of connections and her proven closing ability on turf.
Exacta: Box Egyptian Mau (3) with Bit’s Tiger Magic (6) for the most likely finishing combination, while also including Jane Austen (4) for additional coverage.
Trifecta: Use Egyptian Mau (3) and Bit’s Tiger Magic (6) on top with Jane Austen (4), Home Game (9), and Tahini (5) underneath for value combinations.
Superfecta: The competitive nature of this field makes superfecta wagering attractive, using the top four choices with Tahini (5) as a potential surprise inclusion.
The equipment changes for both Bit’s Tiger Magic and Tahini, combined with the quality connections throughout the field, make Race 5 an excellent betting race with multiple viable approaches. The downhill turf configuration adds an element of unpredictability that can create generous payouts for astute handicappers who identify the right combination of tactical speed and closing ability.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight (3:33 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $60,000
Race 6 represents the most anticipated contest on today’s Santa Anita card, featuring a stellar field of maiden three-year-olds with multiple horses from elite connections. This $60,000 maiden special weight event has drawn significant attention due to Bob Baffert’s unprecedented entry of three runners and the presence of several well-regarded first-time starters from top stables.
Baffert Domination Strategy
Bob Baffert’s decision to enter three horses – Into Midnight, Jude, and Mutaz – creates a fascinating wagering dynamic and reflects the trainer’s confidence in this group. This strategic approach allows Baffert to control pace scenarios while providing multiple paths to victory, a tactic that has proven highly successful throughout his career.
Key Contenders Analysis
Into Midnight (1) – Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Abdul Alsagoor | Trainer: Bob Baffert | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 2/1
Into Midnight emerges as the consensus morning line favorite after a strong runner-up effort in his debut, demonstrating the class expected from his premium breeding. The Into Mischief colt out of Midnight Lucky represents the Hill ‘n’ Dale Equine Holdings partnership with Pegram, Watson, and Weitman, indicating serious financial backing and quality bloodlines.
His debut performance showcased both tactical speed and stamina, finishing a strong second in competitive company. The Irish Racing expert analysis identifies him as “the one to beat” based on that maiden effort, and his morning workouts at Santa Anita have been consistently sharp. Into Mischief has emerged as one of the premier sires in North America, particularly excelling with first-crop runners in sprint distances.
The combination with jockey Abdul Alsagoor provides continuity from his debut, and the Baffert stable’s exceptional record with maiden special weight runners at Santa Anita makes this a formidable combination. The 2/1 morning line odds reflect genuine respect from oddsmakers while still offering reasonable value for a horse with proven ability.
Jude (2) – First-Time Starter
Jockey: Juan Hernandez | Trainer: Bob Baffert | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 5/2
Jude represents perhaps the most intriguing runner in the field as a first-time starter by Uncle Mo out of Helena Bay. The Daily Racing Form specifically highlights him as a “well-meant first-time starter,” indicating strong insider confidence from the Baffert connections. Uncle Mo’s exceptional record as a sire, particularly with first-crop runners, adds significant appeal to this debut effort.
The selection of Juan Hernandez as jockey provides tremendous value, as the partnership between Hernandez and Baffert has produced a remarkable 50% win rate this season. Hernandez currently leads the Santa Anita jockey standings and brings unparalleled experience in handling debut runners for elite trainers. His tactical expertise will be crucial in navigating this competitive field from the rail position.
Zedan Racing Stables’ ownership adds another layer of quality, as they typically campaign horses with significant potential. The 5/2 morning line odds suggest oddsmakers view this as a live contender despite the lack of racing experience. Uncle Mo’s progeny often show natural speed and tactical ability, traits that translate well to Santa Anita’s six-furlong distance.
Kokosan (5) – Class Dropper
Jockey: Hector Berrios | Trainer: John Sadler | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 9/2
Kokosan presents an interesting alternative as a proven runner stepping down in class after competing at higher levels. The Unified colt trained by John Sadler brings tactical speed and recent race fitness that could prove decisive against a field featuring several first-time starters.
His recent form shows a pattern of 4-4-3-4 finishes, indicating consistency at the allowance and stakes level. The class relief combined with Sadler’s exceptional record with three-year-old development makes this a dangerous combination. Hector Berrios provides quality riding, and the 9/2 morning line odds suggest potential value if the market focuses primarily on the Baffert runners.
John Sadler’s training record at Santa Anita is exemplary, particularly with horses making tactical adjustments or class drops. His patient development approach has produced numerous grade 1 winners, and Kokosan represents the type of horse that fits perfectly into his program’s sweet spot.
Secondary Contenders
Doc Bovie (4) – Hall of Fame Connections
Jockey: Mike Smith | Trainer: Richard Mandella | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 15/1
Doc Bovie represents exceptional value at 15/1 morning line odds despite the presence of Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella and legendary jockey Mike Smith. The Cairo Prince gelding out of Kiss A Vet brings quality breeding and the benefit of elite connections that have produced countless upset winners in similar situations.
Mandella’s record with maiden special weight horses is outstanding, particularly when he believes strongly enough in a horse to pair it with Mike Smith. The 15/1 odds appear generous for a combination that has upset numerous heavily favored fields throughout their careers. Smith’s tactical brilliance and Mandella’s patient training methods could produce a surprise result in this competitive field.
Mutaz (6) – Third Baffert Entry
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli | Trainer: Bob Baffert | Weight: 122 lbs | ML: 6/1
Mutaz completes Baffert’s three-horse assault as a Nyquist colt out of Acoma representing Zedan Racing Stables. His previous racing efforts show promise, and Umberto Rispoli’s selection suggests confidence from connections. As the third Baffert entry, he provides additional pace and tactical options while potentially offering value if the public focuses on his stablemates.
Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple Baffert runners creates an interesting pace dynamic, as the trainer rarely enters horses without specific tactical plans. Into Midnight and Jude both possess early tactical speed, while Kokosan brings proven pace-pressing ability from his allowance experience. This setup should produce honest early fractions without being suicidal, potentially favoring horses with tactical positioning.
Doc Bovie’s running style suggests he will settle off the early pace, making him a potential beneficiary if the front-runners engage too aggressively. The six-furlong distance at Santa Anita typically favors horses with tactical speed who can position within striking distance of the early pace.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Jude (2) represents the best value combination of class, connections, and breeding at 5/2 odds. The Baffert/Hernandez partnership’s exceptional success rate combined with Uncle Mo’s proven sire record creates a compelling betting proposition.
Place/Show: Into Midnight (1) offers safer positioning given his proven ability, while Doc Bovie (4) provides exceptional place and show value at long odds with elite connections.
Exacta: Key Jude (2) over Into Midnight (1) for the most likely Baffert 1-2 finish, while boxing those two with Doc Bovie (4) for upset potential.
Trifecta: Use Jude (2) and Into Midnight (1) on top with Kokosan (5), Doc Bovie (4), and Mutaz (6) underneath for comprehensive coverage.
The combination of Baffert’s strategic three-horse entry, Uncle Mo’s exceptional sire record with first-time starters, and the presence of Juan Hernandez creates multiple compelling wagering angles. This race represents both a tactical puzzle and excellent betting opportunity for handicappers who can identify the most likely Baffert winner while considering the upset potential from proven trainers like Mandella and Sadler.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming (4:03 PM)
1 1/8 Miles Turf – Purse $63,000
Race 7 presents an extremely competitive allowance event on Santa Anita’s turf course featuring fillies and mares with multiple European-bred entries and strong connections throughout the field. This route race over 1 1/8 miles creates excellent handicapping opportunities with several horses showing different tactical styles and recent form patterns that suggest a wide-open contest.
Track Configuration and Distance Analysis
The 1 1/8-mile turf distance at Santa Anita favors horses with tactical speed who can position early and maintain their advantage, while also allowing for powerful late-running rallies from closers who can navigate traffic. With the rail set at 30 feet, horses drawn inside will need to work for position early, creating additional pace dynamics.
Key Contenders Analysis
Certitude (FR) (4) – Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Hector Berrios | Trainer: John Sadler | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 2/1
Certitude emerges as the consensus favorite across multiple expert selections, with both Keeneland’s handicapper ranking her second at 2/1 odds and the In the Money Podcast specifically highlighting her as the top selection. The French-bred four-year-old filly brings impressive form with a record of 7-19-19 from 26 starts and career earnings of over $408,000.
Her recent performance pattern shows remarkable consistency with a 2-1-1-2-4 record in her last five starts, including two consecutive runner-up efforts at Santa Anita in 1-mile turf allowances. The In the Money Podcast notes she “has never gone this far but figures to get a favorable upfront pressing trip on the stretch-out for the red-hot Sadler barn”. This distance stretch to 1 1/8 miles could unlock additional improvement from the daughter of Le Havre.
John Sadler’s exceptional record with turf horses, particularly fillies and mares stretching out in distance, adds significant confidence to this selection. The trainer’s recent success includes handling elite horses like Flightline, and his patient development approach has produced numerous grade stakes winners. Hector Berrios provides quality riding and has shown excellent tactical awareness on turf routes.
Paradise Lake (7) – Expert Consensus Choice
Jockey: Juan Hernandez | Trainer: Peter Eurton | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 5/2
Paradise Lake receives the strongest expert backing, with Keeneland’s handicapper selecting her as the top choice and Scott Shapiro’s analysis identifying her as “the one to beat in this second-level allowance event”. The four-year-old Uncle Mo filly brings proven form over the distance with career earnings of $276,340 and a strong 4-5-10 record from 14 starts.
Her recent form shows impressive versatility with a 3-1-1 pattern in her last three starts, including back-to-back victories at Santa Anita in 1 1/8-mile turf allowances. Scott Shapiro specifically notes she “has proven form over the distance and has shown an affinity for the course already” and “appears to be ready to fire a big shot off the freshening”.
The combination of Juan Hernandez and Peter Eurton creates tremendous value, as Hernandez continues his dominant form at Santa Anita while Eurton has shown consistent success with route turf horses. Uncle Mo’s progeny excel on turf, particularly at longer distances, making the breeding match ideal for this contest.
Hannah Buckle (IRE) (5) – Value Alternative
Jockey: Armando Ayuso | Trainer: Leonard Powell | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 5/1
Hannah Buckle represents the most compelling value play in the race, with Keeneland’s handicapper selecting her as the top choice at generous 5/1 odds. The Irish-bred four-year-old filly from Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners brings quality European breeding and recent winning form that suggests significant upside.
Her most recent victory at Del Mar on July 19th showcased her tactical brilliance and closing ability, where she overcame a troubled start to win decisively in the final sixteenth. The race call describes her cutting the corner in third before taking command in the stretch, demonstrating the tactical speed and finishing kick needed for this distance.
Scott Shapiro’s analysis notes she “might be ready for a big effort for trainer Leonard Powell” and is “bred to appreciate stretching out to 9-furlongs for the first time”. Her breeding by Baited Breath out of Thoughtless Moment provides the stamina patterns ideal for route turf racing. Leonard Powell’s patient training methods and Armando Ayuso’s tactical riding create an intriguing combination at value odds.
Secondary Contenders
Hopeful (GB) (8)
Jockey: Abel Lezcano | Trainer: Mark Glatt | Weight: 125 lbs | ML: 10/1
Hopeful brings British breeding and the combination of Abel Lezcano and Mark Glatt, who have shown consistent success with European-bred turf horses. Her record of 3-5-6 from 11 starts includes a victory at Santa Anita over 1 mile on turf, suggesting the distance stretch could benefit her late-running style. At 10/1 morning line odds, she offers potential upset value.
Little Hidden Port (ARG) (1)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura | Trainer: John Sadler | Weight: 125 lbs | ML: 15/1
Little Hidden Port represents intriguing longshot value as an Argentine-bred mare making her second start for John Sadler. Her most recent run was a sixth-place finish at Del Mar, but the significant class relief and Sadler’s exceptional record with South American imports creates potential for improvement. The combination with Kazushi Kimura, who has shown success with route turf horses, adds appeal at generous odds.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup appears favorable for tactical speed horses and closers, with Paradise Lake and Certitude likely to establish honest early fractions without being overly aggressive. Hannah Buckle’s proven closing ability positions her perfectly to benefit from any early pace pressure, while Hopeful’s deep-closing style could produce a late rally if the pace becomes aggressive.
The 1 1/8-mile distance allows for multiple pace scenarios, but the quality of the field suggests moderate early fractions that will favor horses with tactical positioning and strong finishing kicks.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Paradise Lake (7) at 5/2 represents the best combination of proven form, distance experience, and elite connections.
Value Play: Hannah Buckle (IRE) (5) at 5/1 offers exceptional value given her recent winning form and breeding advantages for the distance.
Exacta: Box Paradise Lake (7) with Certitude (FR) (4) for the most likely finishing combination, while also including Hannah Buckle (IRE) (5) with both top choices.
Trifecta: Use Paradise Lake (7) and Certitude (FR) (4) on top with Hannah Buckle (IRE) (5), Hopeful (GB) (8), and Little Hidden Port (ARG) (1) for comprehensive coverage.
Pick 6 Strategy: This race represents a crucial leg in today’s $45,000 Pick 6 carryover, making Paradise Lake (7) and Hannah Buckle (IRE) (5) essential inclusions while using Certitude (FR) (4) for broader coverage.
The combination of proven route form, tactical advantages, and value opportunities makes Race 7 an excellent betting race with multiple viable approaches for both single-race and multi-race wagering strategies.
Race 8 – Claiming (4:33 PM)
5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $20,000
A sprint claiming event for fillies and mares at the $10,000 level.
Key Contenders:
Auditory (1) is projected as Racing Dudes’ selection at 9-5 odds with Edgar Payeras riding for Antonio Flores.
Lady of Sky (2) gets Kyle Frey for Librado Barocio and could provide value at longer odds.
Selection: Auditory (1) to win, with Lady of Sky (2) as the exacta companion.
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming (5:03 PM)
1 Mile Turf – Purse $61,000
Race 9 serves as the finale to today’s Santa Anita card and represents the final leg of the $45,000 Pick 6 carryover, creating exceptional wagering value for this California-bred allowance event. This competitive field of 10 runners features horses restricted to California-bred or California-sired horses that have never won $21,000 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, setting up an intriguing contest with multiple viable contenders.
Carryover and Wagering Implications
The Daily Racing Form specifically highlights this race as offering “another potential single” in their Pick 6 analysis, indicating strong expert confidence in the likely winner. With over $45,000 in the Pick 6 pool and multiple carryovers totaling $184,186 on Friday’s card, this race presents exceptional value for both single-race and multi-race wagering strategies.
Key Contenders Analysis
Vodka Vodka (3) – Expert Consensus Choice
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux | Trainer: Aggie Ordonez | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 5/2
Vodka Vodka emerges as the consensus expert selection across multiple handicapping sources, with Keeneland’s tip sheet ranking him as the top choice at 5/2 odds and the Daily Racing Form specifically identifying him as a potential Pick 6 “single”. The four-year-old Stay Thirsty gelding brings impressive credentials with career earnings of $199,395 and tactical versatility that fits perfectly with this distance and surface.
His recent form shows a pattern of 2-2-4-7 finishes, including two consecutive runner-up efforts at Del Mar and Santa Anita in similar company. The most significant concern comes from his last start at Del Mar on August 30th, where he finished seventh as the 2/1 favorite in a similar California-bred allowance over one mile on turf. However, that performance came after an extended layoff, and connections clearly believe he’s ready to return to form.
The combination of Kent Desormeaux and trainer Aggie Ordonez has been highly successful, particularly with California-bred horses. Desormeaux’s recent success includes piloting Om N Joy to five consecutive victories for the same trainer, demonstrating their effective partnership. The Stay Thirsty breeding provides both tactical speed and stamina for the mile distance on turf.
Winning Patriot (8) – Value Alternative
Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez | Trainer: Carla Gaines | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 2/1
Winning Patriot represents exceptional value as the morning line favorite at 2/1 odds, with Keeneland’s expert handicapper ranking him third behind two longer-priced horses. The four-year-old gelding by Om out of Patriot C H brings solid recent form including a runner-up finish at Del Mar in his last start, where he closed strongly to finish second by a nose at 12/1 odds.
That Del Mar performance on August 30th was particularly impressive, as he rallied from off the pace to nearly catch Annan in a competitive California-bred allowance over one mile on turf. The race featured several horses from today’s field, including Vodka Vodka (7th), Cardiff Crack (6th), and Freeport Joe (4th), giving Winning Patriot a clear form advantage over those rivals.
Harris Farms’ ownership provides quality resources, and trainer Carla Gaines has shown consistent success with California-bred turf horses. Ricardo Gonzalez brings excellent tactical awareness and has developed an effective partnership with the Gaines stable. The 2/1 morning line odds appear generous given his recent form and proven ability at this level.
Lil Nas (5) – Peter Eurton Special
Jockey: Antonio Fresu | Trainer: Peter Eurton | Weight: 125 lbs | ML: 6/1
Lil Nas offers compelling value at 6/1 morning line odds from the successful Peter Eurton stable with Antonio Fresu riding. The seven-year-old gelding brings extensive experience with 26 career starts and earnings of $175,000, including recent success in California-bred company.
His recent form pattern shows consistency with a 4-1-2-0 record in his last five starts at this level. The combination of Eurton’s training expertise and Fresu’s tactical riding creates a dangerous combination, particularly given Eurton’s 26-7-4-4 record representing a 27% win rate this season. The veteran gelding’s experience could prove decisive in navigating traffic in this competitive field.
Secondary Contenders
Jimmy Blue Jeans (10)
Jockey: Kyle Frey | Trainer: Jose Hernandez Jr. | Weight: 125 lbs | ML: 8/1
Jimmy Blue Jeans represents intriguing value at 8/1 odds as an also-eligible runner who may gain entry with late scratches. The seven-year-old gelding by James Street brings solid credentials with career earnings of $255,970 and a recent pattern of 4-25%-75% in-the-money percentage. Kyle Frey’s tactical expertise combined with the horse’s proven closing ability makes him a potential upset candidate if he draws into the race.
Stolen Treasure (1)
Jockey: William Antongeorgi III | Trainer: Edward Freeman | Weight: 123 lbs | ML: 8/1
Stolen Treasure brings class and recent winning form to this contest, having captured his last start at Los Alamitos in September. The four-year-old Nyquist colt gets the services of William Antongeorgi III, who doubles as both jockey and part-owner, creating strong incentive for peak performance. At 8/1 morning line odds, he offers potential value as an alternative to the favorites.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup appears favorable for tactical horses and closers, with Winning Patriot and Vodka Vodka both possessing the early speed to position advantageously while maintaining closing ability. The one-mile distance allows for multiple pace scenarios, but the quality of the field suggests moderate early fractions that will favor horses with tactical positioning and strong finishing kicks.
Lil Nas and Jimmy Blue Jeans bring proven closing ability that could benefit from any early pace pressure, while the California-bred restrictions ensure a relatively evenly matched field where tactical advantages become magnified.
California-Bred Advantage
The restriction to California-bred or California-sired horses creates a unique dynamic where local knowledge and breeding patterns become crucial factors. Trainers like Aggie Ordonez, Peter Eurton, and Carla Gaines have shown particular success with state-bred horses, making their entries especially attractive in this restricted company.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Vodka Vodka (3) at 5/2 represents the safest choice given expert consensus and proven class, despite concerns about his last start.
Value Play: Winning Patriot (8) at 2/1 offers exceptional value given his recent runner-up effort and clear form advantage over several rivals.
Exacta: Box Vodka Vodka (3) with Winning Patriot (8) for the most likely finishing combination, while also including Lil Nas (5) for additional coverage.
Pick 6 Strategy: This represents the crucial final leg of today’s $45,000 carryover, making Vodka Vodka (3) the preferred single while using Winning Patriot (8) and Lil Nas (5) for broader coverage in smaller tickets.
Trifecta: Use Vodka Vodka (3) and Winning Patriot (8) on top with Lil Nas (5), Jimmy Blue Jeans (10), and Stolen Treasure (1) for comprehensive value coverage.
The combination of expert consensus, carryover value, and California-bred dynamics makes Race 9 both the most anticipated betting race of the day and the key to unlocking significant Pick 6 payouts for handicappers who can identify the correct finishing order.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez continues his dominant form at Santa Anita, currently leading the jockey standings with over 2,400 career wins and a 25% win rate. His partnership with Bob Baffert has produced a remarkable 50% win rate this season. Hernandez rides Lank (Race 2) and Jude (Race 6), both representing strong wagering opportunities.
Mike Smith brings his Hall of Fame experience to three races today, riding Princess Snow (Race 1), Agency (Race 3), and Doc Bovie (Race 6). His tactical expertise makes each mount competitive.
Hector Berrios has multiple live mounts including Ima Joker (Race 1), Simplexity (IRE) (Race 3), and Certitude (FR) (Race 7), representing diverse wagering opportunities across the card.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bob Baffert sends out multiple runners including the highly regarded Lank (Race 2) and a powerful three-horse entry in Race 6 with Into Midnight, Jude, and Mutaz. Baffert’s recent 50% win rate with Juan Hernandez makes any combination worth strong consideration.
Peter Miller has several strong contenders including Bit’s Tiger Magic (Race 5) and Caitlin Fever (Race 4), both projected as Racing Dudes selections. Miller’s stable has shown particular strength with turf runners and first-time starters.
John Sadler trains multiple contenders including Captivator (Race 2) and Certitude (FR) (Race 7), both receiving strong expert backing.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Pick 6 carryover creates enhanced value for exotic wagering, with the pool estimated to exceed $45,000. Focus on races with Bob Baffert runners, particularly those with Juan Hernandez aboard, given their exceptional 50% win rate combination.
Single Race Value:
- Race 2: Lank (6) represents exceptional value given the Baffert/Hernandez combination
- Race 5: Bit’s Tiger Magic (6) on the unique downhill turf configuration
- Race 6: Into Midnight (1) in the competitive maiden special weight
Multi-Race Strategy:
Focus Pick 4 and Pick 6 tickets around the Baffert horses while using Racing Dudes’ projected selections as primary tickets, spreading to value alternatives in competitive races.
The combination of optimal track conditions, a significant Pick 6 carryover, and several standout trainer-jockey combinations creates excellent wagering opportunities throughout today’s card at Santa Anita Park.
