Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 13, 2026 card


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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Welcome to Santa Anita Park for the Friday, February 13th card. The turf rail is out 30 feet today, which often plays kindly to horses with early tactical speed, especially in the sprints. As an AI handicapping model, I have processed the past performances, pace scenarios, trainer/jockey combinations, and critical scratch-watch alerts to provide a comprehensive breakdown of today's 8-race card.

Here is your in-depth race-by-race analysis and betting strategy.


Race 1: 1 Mile Dirt – Claiming $10,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: This is a bottom-level claiming route for horses trying to find their second lifetime win. The pace looks relatively soft on paper, which could give an advantage to anyone willing to take the initiative early. Look for Typhoon Tommy (3) and Last Call Paul (5) to be the ones contesting the early fractions. Silver Ice (8) is entered here, but the Scratch Watch list notes a recent January 18th scratch by the veterinarian—a significant red flag at this low claiming level that warrants extreme caution.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Peter Eurton brings Spun Not Stirred (4) into this spot with Tiago Pereira aboard. Eurton doesn't usually drop them this low unless he's aggressively clearing out outclassed stock, making this horse a prime candidate to wake up against weaker company. Armando Ayuso taking the mount on Typhoon Tommy for Edwin Alvarez suggests they will be sending from the gate.

Race 1 Expert Picks:

Win: Spun Not Stirred (4) – 45% confidence

Place: Typhoon Tommy (3) – 30% confidence

Show: Last Call Paul (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: White Mountain (2) – 10% confidence


Race 2: 6 Furlongs Turf – Maiden Claiming $50,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: With the turf rail at 30 feet, this 6-furlong sprint will demand early positioning. Sensational Dream (3) and Kitty Marren (4) both project to show early foot. The turn for home comes up quickly with this rail setting, so whoever gets the jump at the top of the lane will be tough to run down.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Philip D'Amato is lethal in turf sprints, and he brings Nikolina (2) here with Kazushi Kimura in the irons. This tandem commands instant respect. Richard Baltas has a strong uncoupled entry with Watershed Moment (1) and Manhattan Beauty (5). Jaramillo on the rail horse is an aggressive placement, but Kimura's patient handling of Nikolina might be the perfect counter if the speed duel gets too hot.

Race 2 Expert Picks:

Win: Nikolina (2) – 40% confidence

Place: Watershed Moment (1) – 25% confidence

Show: Kitty Marren (4) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Manhattan Beauty (5) – 15% confidence


Race 3: 1 Mile Dirt – Claiming $10,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: Similar to the first race, this is a bottom-rung route for fillies and mares. The pace scenario is murky, with no confirmed front-runner. Union Heiress (2) and Princess Daddy (4) might find themselves on the lead by default. In races devoid of early speed, taking a horse that can stalk within a length or two of the leader is usually the most profitable strategy.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: George Papaprodromou saddles Brandon's Girl (6) with Diego Herrera riding. The outside post in a small field over a mile allows Herrera to survey the pace and drop in exactly where he wants. Ruben Gomez and Armando Aguilar team up on Perfect Life (3); Aguilar's bug weight allowance could be the deciding factor in the final sixteenth of a mile.

Race 3 Expert Picks:

Win: Brandon's Girl (6) – 40% confidence

Place: Perfect Life (3) – 35% confidence

Show: Princess Daddy (4) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Union Heiress (2) – 10% confidence


Race 4: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Maiden Claiming $50,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: A nine-furlong test on the grass. Stamina is the question mark for these maidens. Island Paradise (2) and Lorenzo Bernini (1) look to establish the pace. Note the Scratch Watch alerts here: Imagineer (6) had a vet scratch on Jan 18th, and Vron By You (5) scratched off the turf on Jan 2nd. Vron by You is finally getting onto the intended surface today, which could lead to a massive form improvement.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Florent Geroux taking the mount on the rail for Papaprodromou with Lorenzo Bernini is a huge signal. Geroux is a master of putting turf horses to sleep on the front end and stealing races. However, Mark Glatt's Rostovsky (4) with Ricky Gonzalez gets a great setup to rate and make one sustained run.

Race 4 Expert Picks:

Win: Lorenzo Bernini (1) – 35% confidence

Place: Rostovsky (4) – 30% confidence

Show: Vron By You (5) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Island Paradise (2) – 15% confidence


Race 5: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt – Claiming $10,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: A chaotic, full field of 11 going a short five and a half furlongs. Expect a cavalry charge to the front. Cheeky Gal (2), Step It Out (5), and A Rousing Babe (3) all have the gas to contest the lead. A fast, contested pace sets this up perfectly for a closer. Be wary of Cee's The Image (9) and Sensational Z Z (10), who both exit January veterinarian scratches.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Steve Knapp has a strong hand with Step It Out and Rousing Jewel (7). Kyle Frey riding Rousing Jewel is the key here; if the pace melts down, Frey is excellent at picking up the pieces late. Tiago Pereira on Jorge Periban's Unwritten Code (4) also lurks as a dangerous off-the-pace threat.

Race 5 Expert Picks:

Win: Rousing Jewel (7) – 30% confidence

Place: Unwritten Code (4) – 25% confidence

Show: Step It Out (IRE) (5) – 25% confidence

Alternative: A Rousing Babe (3) – 20% confidence


Race 6: 1 Mile Turf – Maiden Special Weight $70,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: A high-quality field of older maidens. Midnight Strike (3) and Irish Rebel (4) figure to inject early pace. With the rail out, making up ground around the far turn can be tricky, so the winner will likely need to be in the top flight by the half-mile pole.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: John Sadler holds the aces with Latitude (1) and Midway Lane (5). Geroux on Latitude from the inside post is the primary threat. Sadler doesn't typically debut turf routers unless they are ready, and Geroux will save all the ground. Richard Baltas counters with Mucho Dulce (2); Tiago Pereira will likely try to sit right off Latitude's flank.

Race 6 Expert Picks:

Win: Latitude (1) – 45% confidence

Place: Mucho Dulce (2) – 30% confidence

Show: Midway Lane (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Midnight Strike (3) – 10% confidence


Race 7: 6 Furlongs Dirt – Allowance Optional Claiming $70,000

Pace & Setup Analysis: This is the feature dirt sprint of the day. The pace will be electric. Mawu (6) and Tequilaandtherapy (5) will fly from the gate. Mawu comes off a January 11th trainer scratch in a Grade 3, indicating Bob Baffert gave her extra time to get right for an easier spot. If she is fully cranked, she might simply run them off their feet.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Bob Baffert and Juan Hernandez are the premier duo on the circuit; their presence on Mawu makes her the heavy favorite. If the speed duel gets too intense, Mike Puype's Delitefull Hart (1) with “Big Money” Mike Smith breaking from the rail could pull an upset by stalking the heavy hitters and pouncing late.

Race 7 Expert Picks:

Win: Mawu (6) – 50% confidence

Place: Delitefull Hart (1) – 25% confidence

Show: Tequilaandtherapy (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Pocket Venus (2) – 10% confidence


Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Maiden Special Weight $70,000 (Cal-Bred)

Pace & Setup Analysis: A full field of 3-year-old state-breds closes out the card. These youngsters are still figuring things out, so traffic trouble is highly likely in a field of 11. Almost There (2) and Desert Hawk (5) show the best early speed. In large turf fields, class and a clean trip usually trump raw speed.

Trainer & Jockey Notes: Philip D'Amato is back with Robin Olds (4), ridden by Armando Ayuso. D'Amato excels at getting these young Cal-breds ready for two-turn turf tests. Keep an eye on Craig Lewis's John Metcalfe (8) with Juan Hernandez; getting the top rider in the colony is a massive sign of intent for a horse that might offer slight value on the board.

Race 8 Expert Picks:

Win: Robin Olds (4) – 35% confidence

Place: John Metcalfe (8) – 30% confidence

Show: Flash Of Lightning (10) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Desert Hawk (5) – 15% confidence


Consensus Picks

Race 1: Spun Not Stirred (4) Race 2: Nikolina (2) Race 3: Brandon's Girl (6) Race 4: Lorenzo Bernini (1) Race 5: Rousing Jewel (7) Race 6: Latitude (1) Race 7: Mawu (6) (Best Bet of the Day) Race 8: Robin Olds (4)

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