Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Santa Anita Park presents a robust 10-race card this Saturday, headlined by the $100,000 Wishing Well Stakes in Race 7, a six-furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The card features a strong mix of competitive allowance optional claiming events on turf, maiden claiming races on dirt, and a pair of claiming sprints that should provide plenty of wagering opportunities for sharp players.

The overall quality of this card represents a significant step up from the prior weekend, which drew smaller fields and less competitive rundowns. This Saturday’s card features deep, full fields — including 14-horse fields in Races 5, 9, and 10 — along with several well-drawn claiming and allowance races that should produce genuine pace scenarios and wagering value.​

The feature race, the Wishing Well Stakes, is restricted to horses that have not won a graded stakes since August 1, 2025. The star of the show is the unbeaten Gratefully (post 6), who arrives with a perfect 4-for-4 record and makes her stakes debut. She will face a diverse group that includes European import Saratoga Special (post 4) making her U.S. debut, the graded-stakes-experienced Egyptian Mau (post 8), and multiple Santa Anita turf winner Jungle Peace (post 9).

The early Pick 5 spans Races 1 through 5, with first post at 12:30 PM Pacific. A late Pick 3 covers Races 7 through 9. There is also a Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 in play linking Santa Anita with Gulfstream Park. The Scratch Watch flags several horses to monitor: Can’t Help Myself in Race 1 (trainer), Morello in Race 2 (veterinarian), Hotrocket (IRE) and Veritas Aequitas in Race 5 (both with prior veterinarian and also-eligible flags), Smiling Tizzy in Race 6 (also-eligible), Cammy’s Girl and California Cat in Race 8 (both veterinarian), and Shane’s the Brains in Race 10 (also-eligible). Check scratches before finalizing all wagers.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Today’s forecast for Arcadia calls for partly cloudy to sunny skies with a high near 73 degrees and a low of 49 degrees. Winds are expected to be light, out of the west around 5 mph. This marks a welcome warming trend after a cold, stormy stretch that saw Santa Anita cancel its Presidents Day card on February 16 — the sixth weather cancellation of the season.

The dirt main track is listed as Fast and the turf course is Firm, according to track condition reports posted this morning. The rail is set at 30 feet on the turf course. After the significant rainfall earlier in the season (over nine inches since late December), the drying-out period has been extensive, and the track has had nearly a full week to recover since Monday’s storm. The firm turf and fast dirt should produce true pace scenarios with speed holding its typical advantage at Santa Anita.

Expect ideal racing conditions with no precipitation in the forecast and temperatures that should keep the surface consistent throughout the afternoon and into the evening card.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Official Santa Anita winning post-position data from December 28, 2025 through February 15, 2026 reveals the following trends:​

On the dirt in sprints (under one mile), post 4 has been dominant with a 23% win rate (16-for-71), followed by post 3 at 18% (13-for-71). Posts 1 and 5 are both hitting at a fair 13-14%. Post 8 (1-for-24, 4%) and posts 9 and above have been significantly disadvantaged in dirt sprints this meet.​

In dirt routes (one mile and over), post 4 again leads at 19% (7-for-37), followed by post 6 at 19% (5-for-26). Posts 3 and 5 are hitting at 14%. The inside posts 1 and 2 are slightly weaker at 11% and 16% respectively, while post 7 has been strong at 29% (4-for-14), though the sample size is small.​

On the turf in sprints, posts 1 and 2 have been outstanding at 18% and 20% respectively, while post 5 has also been strong at 20%. Post 6 drops off sharply to just 7%. This is somewhat unusual for turf sprints, which historically do not favor the extreme inside at Santa Anita.​

In turf routes, post 3 has been the standout at 25% (14-for-56), followed by post 4 at 18% (10-for-56). Post 2 has been weak at 9%, and posts 5 and above drop off considerably, with post 5 at just 4%.​

Running style data from the 2025 meet shows that early speed dominates Santa Anita dirt sprints, winning 56% of the time for horses on or within one length of the lead. Closers won only 9% of dirt sprints. In dirt routes, the advantage still goes to speed (51%) and stalkers (36%), with closers winning just 13%. On the turf at one mile, closers were at a disadvantage at 19%, while speed and stalkers shared the advantage more evenly. On the flat turf sprints, all styles played fairly except closers from more than four lengths back, who won just 22%. In downhill turf sprints with large fields, historical data favors middle and outside posts, and posts 1-2-3 can be tough to win from.​

Race 1 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000

Post Time: 12:30 PM Pacific

This opener for California-bred or California-sired three-year-olds on the turf provides a competitive field of nine. The conditions favor lightly raced runners stepping up from maiden or starter company, and the one-mile turf distance will reward tactical speed and favorable positioning.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario projects as moderate to honest. Cruise Home (post 5) and Arkadelphia (post 1) both showed early speed in recent outings and should contest the lead through the first half mile. Dark Blue (post 3) has also shown tactical speed from the gate and could press from a forward position. The fractions should be honest enough for stalkers and closers to have a chance, but this is not a race that figures to set up for deep closers given the turf route bias toward forward runners at this meet.

Key Contenders

Third Beer (post 4) is the clear top selection. This Mendelssohn colt drops sharply out of three consecutive stakes tries that included the Grade 3 Zuma Beach and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), and lands in a much softer allowance optional claiming spot today. He makes his second start off a freshening and reunites with winning jockey Antonio Fresu. The class drop is enormous, and a more favorable pace flow should help this colt put forth his best effort at a distance he has already won over.​

Ventry Strand (post 6) stretches out from two sprints to a route for trainer John Sadler. He has won half of his grass sprint tries and exits an odds-on victory on January 19 against similar company. The route distance is a question mark, but his pedigree and running style suggest he can handle a mile on turf. Sadler is an experienced conditioner who rarely makes moves without purpose.​

Dark Blue (post 3) added Lasix and blinkers when breaking his maiden at today’s one-mile turf conditions on January 15 for Michael McCarthy. He draws favorably in post 3, which has been the strongest turf route post this meet at 25%. Juan Hernandez retains the mount, and McCarthy is having a solid meet.

Secondary Choices

Can’t Help Myself (post 9) shows ability and gets Florent Geroux aboard for Sadler, but is flagged on the scratch watch (trainer). If he runs, he has some upside, but monitor the scratch board closely. Dark Omen (post 8) is the Best Bet selection from one handicapping source and could rally late at a price, though the turf route data does not favor extreme closers.

Longshots

Maker and Sons (post 7) at 30-1 morning line pairs with the European import jockey Mirco Demuro, who has been competitive at the meet. He could outrun his odds if the pace is particularly contentious. Fumano’s Magic (post 2) at 15-1 is lightly raced and gets Diego Herrera, who has been riding well, but this is a tough spot to graduate to winners.​

Selections

Win: 4 Third Beer

Place: 6 Ventry Strand

Show: 3 Dark Blue

Betting Strategy: Third Beer should be shorter than 3-1 and is likely a single in multi-race wagers. For exactas, key 4 on top over 6 and 3. The trifecta box of 3-4-6 is the primary play, with 8-Dark Omen added in the superfecta to protect against a closing move at a price.

Race 2 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $16,000

Post Time: 1:03 PM Pacific

A five-horse claimer for four-year-olds and up at the $5,000 level. This is a short, weak field with minimal depth but does produce a clear pace and class analysis. Note that Morello (post 2) is on the scratch watch for a veterinarian issue — check scratches.​

Pace Analysis

If Morello runs, the pace projects as very slow, bordering on a walkover. Morello has enough positional speed to clear this field if sent by jockey Edwin Maldonado. Carol’s Comic (post 5) and Alpine Thunder (post 3) may press, but neither is pure speed. In a paceless sprint, the front-runner has a massive advantage, and the data this meet supports speed in dirt sprints at 56%.

Key Contenders

Morello (post 2) shortens back in distance and drops back to the $5,000 claiming price he was purchased for two starts ago. Andrew Harris conditions, and the 7-year-old gelding has enough tactical speed to clear this short field. If he draws away early, this field may not have the quality to reel him in. He was the 6-5 morning line favorite before the vet flag.

Carol’s Comic (post 5) won when last trying this level over this course four starts back and should get a favorable pressing trip in the short field. Tyler Baze is the pilot, and Val Brinkerhoff is competent with this type.​

Secondary Choices

Alpine Thunder (post 3) drops to a career-low claiming tag after a well-beaten second when routing on January 18. He is more of a router, and the cutback to six furlongs is a question, but the class relief is a positive angle.​

Longshots

Smarty Nose (post 1) at 8-1 is an 8-year-old campaigner with veteran savvy but limited speed. Gentlemen’s Club (post 4) shows some back class but has not been competitive at this level recently.​

Selections

Win: 2 Morello (pending scratch clearance)

Place: 5 Carol’s Comic

Show: 3 Alpine Thunder

Betting Strategy: If Morello scratches, Carol’s Comic becomes the top play. In a short field, there is limited exotic value. A $5 win wager on Morello and a 2-5-3 exacta box is the straightforward play.

Race 3 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000 (Fillies and Mares)

Post Time: 1:34 PM Pacific

A full field of 10 older fillies and mares on the turf at a mile provides one of the more competitive non-stakes races on the card. The conditions favor horses stepping up from maiden wins or looking for their second victory, with the claiming price set at $50,000.

Pace Analysis

The pace should be honest to quick with Delightful Laura (post 9), Going Deep (post 2), and potentially Preem (post 5) all showing early speed in recent outings. With three or more runners likely to contest the lead, this sets up well for mid-pack stalkers and closers, especially on a firm turf course where the rail is set at 30 feet. The pace dynamics favor Lila and Resolve, who both prefer to come from off the pace.

Key Contenders

Delightful Laura (post 9) has been excellent in her last four route turf tries, compiling a win, two seconds, and a third. She is trained by Peter Eurton, who is having a 25% win rate this meet, and gets the ever-experienced Victor Espinoza. She has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed and is the 5-2 morning line choice.

Resolve (post 10) rallied for the place spot against similar company on January 24 and now shortens back to a mile for the Leonard Powell barn. She is a 3-1 morning line shot with a deep closer running style. Her career record of 1-4-3 from 15 starts suggests she is most reliable underneath, but she has enough class to win here if the pace falls apart.

Lila (post 1) moves to the rail for the class drop and gets the red-hot Kazushi Kimura for Richard Baltas. She projects to get a spirited race flow to close into, and the post 1 position has been solid in turf routes at 12% this meet. The switch to Kimura is a significant upgrade.​

Secondary Choices

Princess Em Too (post 8) stalks from mid-pack for Phil D’Amato and Antonio Fresu, a potent trainer-jockey combination hitting at a strong 14% win rate with 54% in the money. She is a 4/1 or 5/1 shot with upside.​

Claire Austin (post 3) goes two sprints to a route for George Papaprodromou and draws the best turf route post on the card. She is bred to relish two turns and could improve significantly with the added distance.

Longshots

Baltic Fire (post 7) at 6-1 is trained by Simon Callaghan and has some turf route experience, though her consistency is a concern with a 3-3-6 record from 23 starts. Miss Artois (post 4) at 5-1 or 6-1 is a fast closer for Baltas who draws the favorable post 4 in turf routes.​

Selections

Win: 9 Delightful Laura

Place: 10 Resolve

Show: 1 Lila

Betting Strategy: With the honest pace scenario, spread in the exotics. Key Delightful Laura (9) and Resolve (10) on top of exactas with Lila (1), Princess Em Too (8), and Claire Austin (3) underneath. For the trifecta, a 9,10 with 1,3,8 with 1,3,8,10,9 provides solid coverage.

Race 4 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $17,000

Post Time: 2:07 PM Pacific

A weak maiden claimer for Cal-bred fillies and mares at the $12,500 level. The field of eight is largely populated by horses with extensive form, many of whom have had numerous opportunities to break their maiden without success. Note that Siempre Naman (post 6) is re-entered from a prior scratch.​

Pace Analysis

The pace should be contested. Smiling Rapper (post 1), Siempre Naman (post 6), and My Eliana (post 5) all show early speed from their prior outings. Play for Me (post 4) also showed some interest from the gate in her debut. With this much early speed, the race could set up for a stalker or closer, though the dirt sprint bias at Santa Anita still heavily favors speed. Post 4 has been dominant in dirt sprints this meet at 23%.

Key Contenders

Play for Me (post 4) rallied wide for third when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals in a well-backed debut on January 25 for Steve Knapp. She draws the hot dirt sprint post and is dangerous with any normal second-out improvement. The class of her debut suggests she belongs here.​

Daddygaveittome (post 7) is winless in her career but has been competitive enough to be considered. She is trained by Edwin Alvarez and gets Ricardo Gonzalez aboard.​

Tom’s Star (post 8) has finished second in six of her last eight tries, including finishing ahead of the top pick in her last start. She is perpetually close but struggles to get her head in front. At a price, she offers exacta and trifecta value underneath.​

Secondary Choices

Palace Mischief (post 3) at 10-1 draws the favorable post 3 in dirt sprints (18% win rate this meet). She is the top pick from one handicapping source.

Siempre Naman (post 6) returns from a scratch and gets apprentice Alfredo Bautista with a weight break of 5 pounds (119 lbs). Jeff Bonde trains.​

Longshots

Bitter Truth (post 2) at 8-1 gets top jockey Abel Lezcano and is trained by Craig Anthony Lewis. Smiling Rapper (post 1) at 6-1 has the rail and early speed, which could steal this weak field.​

Selections

Win: 4 Play for Me

Place: 8 Tom’s Star

Show: 3 Palace Mischief

Betting Strategy: This is a race to spread. Key Play for Me (4) in exactas over 8, 3, and 7. For trifectas, use 4 with 3,7,8 with 1,3,6,7,8 for broader coverage in a field where any of these maidens could wake up.

Race 5 — Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf, Purse $37,000

Post Time: 2:37 PM Pacific

An ultra-competitive 14-horse field going 6 1/2 furlongs on the flat turf course at the $32,000 claiming level. This is the final leg of the early Pick 5 and demands a wide ticket. The large field and competitive nature of this race make it one of the most challenging on the card to handicap. Note Hotrocket (IRE) (post 13) and Veritas Aequitas (post 8) are both on the scratch watch.​

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as hot with multiple speed types in this large field. Tigerhon (post 1), Central Dispatch (post 2), Pioneer Prince (post 6), and Code Duello (post 7) all have tactical speed and will likely contest the early fractions. With this much speed signed on, the pace could collapse and set up for mid-pack stalkers and closers. However, the turf sprint bias generally does not heavily penalize speed at Santa Anita, so the key is finding a horse with enough early positioning to avoid traffic but not so much speed that it gets caught in the early speed duel.​

Key Contenders

Central Dispatch (post 2) flashed speed and tired to sixth at the higher $50,000 claiming level when returning off 383 days’ rest for John Sadler. The class drop is significant, he makes his second start off that long layoff (the bounce-back pattern), and post 2 has been the best turf sprint post this meet at 20%. Antonio Fresu rides.

Doncic (post 3) rallied for the place spot when facing both Central Dispatch and Tigerhon on January 15. The veteran 8-year-old gelding sports a strong 88 Beyer last out and retains Juan Hernandez. Post 3 is neutral in turf sprints.​

Code Duello (post 7) was a sharp winner by 2 3/4 lengths in fast time (1:08.41) with his return to turf on January 16 for Craig Dollase. He draws well enough and is dangerous with a similar front-running trip.​

Secondary Choices

Harcyn (post 11) is a selection from one handicapping source and gets the capable Mirco Demuro for Genaro Vallejo.​

Tigerhon (FR) (post 1) at 5-1 on the morning line has the rail, which has been a strong 18% in turf sprints this meet. He has tactical speed and could benefit from saving ground along the inside.

Mucho Del Oro (post 9) at 8-1 gets Florent Geroux for George Papaprodromou and has some closing ability that could be activated if the pace collapses.​

Longshots

Dakota Country (post 5) at 30-1 and Autism Puzzle (post 14) at 30-1 are massive prices with limited recent form. Don’t Swear Dave (post 12) at 12-1 has some back form that could surface at a price.​

Selections

Win: 2 Central Dispatch

Place: 3 Doncic

Show: 7 Code Duello

Betting Strategy: This is the spread race on the card. For Pick 5 purposes, use 2, 3, 7, and 11 as the core group. In the race itself, key Central Dispatch (2) over 3, 7, 1, and 9 in exactas. The trifecta should include 2, 3, 7 on top with 1, 9, 11 filling out the bottom.

Race 6 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $23,000

Post Time: 3:07 PM Pacific

An eight-horse field of four-year-olds and up going one mile on the dirt at the $16,000 claiming level. This race features horses that have never won two races, making it a condition where improvement and first-off-the-claim angles are particularly relevant. Note Smiling Tizzy (post 6) is flagged as also-eligible.​

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as slow to moderate. Bowtie Boys (post 5) is the clear speed of the race and has shown front-running ability in his last three one-mile tries. Without a clear challenger for the lead, he could dictate soft fractions and prove very difficult to catch in a one-mile dirt race where speed dominates (51% win rate). Irish Element (post 3) may press from nearby, but no other horse in the field has the early foot to seriously challenge.

Key Contenders

Bowtie Boys (post 5) has finished second in his last three one-mile main track starts for Tim Yakteen and gets Kazushi Kimura aboard. He makes his second start off a 10-month layoff and should improve. With likely control of an uncontested lead, he is the most dangerous horse in the field. He is the consensus top choice across multiple handicapping sources.

Spun Not Stirred (post 2) rallied for the place spot as the beaten odds-on choice on February 13 and now goes first off the claim for the new barn. He sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer at 71 and gets Mirco Demuro. The first-off-the-claim angle is live.​

Secondary Choices

Smiling Tizzy (post 6) was third behind the top pair last out and now goes first off the claim for Jose Valdez, who recently won with claimed horse Broadway Unions. If he draws in, he offers value at 6-1.​

Canyahearmeknockin (post 8) at 6-1 gets Florent Geroux for Dan Blacker and has some late-running ability. However, if Bowtie Boys dictates a slow pace, the closer is at a severe disadvantage in dirt routes.​

Irish Element (post 3) at 5-1 is trained by Doug O’Neill and has a pressing style that could put him in contention if Bowtie Boys sets the pace too soft.​

Longshots

Grandisimo (post 1) at 8-1 gets Abel Lezcano and is making his first start at one mile on dirt. Uncle Evco (post 7) at 8-1 has some ability but has not been competitive at this level.​

Selections

Win: 5 Bowtie Boys

Place: 2 Spun Not Stirred

Show: 6 Smiling Tizzy

Betting Strategy: Bowtie Boys is a strong single in multi-race wagers. For the race, key 5 on top of exactas with 2, 6, and 8. The 5-2 exacta is the primary play.

Race 7 — Wishing Well Stakes, 6 Furlongs Turf, Purse $100,000

Post Time: 3:37 PM Pacific

The feature race of the card. The Wishing Well Stakes for older fillies and mares going six furlongs on the flat turf course has drawn a quality field of nine. The condition restricts entrants to those who have not won a graded stakes since August 1, 2025, which opens the door for up-and-comers and class-relief droppers from graded company.​

Pace Analysis

The pace should be honest. Gratefully (post 6) has shown forward speed in all four of her victories and will likely be forwardly placed from the start. Antifona (post 1), Miss Lizzy (post 5), and Jungle Peace (post 9) could also show early interest. There is enough natural speed signed on that the fractions should be legitimate, which gives the closer Egyptian Mau (post 8) a chance to rally, though pure closers in Santa Anita turf sprints have still been at a disadvantage this season (22% win rate).

Key Contenders

Gratefully (post 6) is the deserving 2-1 morning line favorite and the consensus top selection. She is a perfect 4-for-4 in her career, having won on debut in the slop at Saratoga, followed by an off-the-turf win at Aqueduct, and then two turf wins including a career-best 91 Beyer on January 8 at Santa Anita. She makes her stakes debut in tremendous form and projects to get another forward trip under Florent Geroux. Her speed figures have improved each race, and handicappers believe she has not yet reached her ceiling.

Jungle Peace (IRE) (post 9) is the sole graded stakes winner in the field, having won last year’s Grade 3 Senorita over the Santa Anita turf course. She has three wins and a third in four starts over Santa Anita turf, making her a course-and-distance specialist. She returns off a freshening with strong recent works for Phil D’Amato and gets Antonio Fresu, who has been riding at an 18% win rate with 50% in the money this meet.

Egyptian Mau (SAF) (post 8) gets class relief after finishing fourth in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas on January 11. That day, the runner-up Princesa Moche came back to win the Grade 3 Megahertz, franking the form. The South African-bred 6-year-old mare is the best closer in this sprint field and will have plenty of early speed to run at under Juan Hernandez. If the pace gets heated up front, she will be closing strongly.

Secondary Choices

Saratoga Special (IRE) (post 4) is a stakes winner overseas and makes her U.S. debut for Richard Baltas. Purchased for $451,338 at Tattersalls, she has worked five times on Santa Anita’s synthetic training track, including a sharp four-furlong drill in 46.60 seconds. She has proven she can fire fresh, and Hector Berrios rides. The big question is the transition from European racing to American turf, but the talent is clearly there.

Nay V Belle (post 7) drops from a Grade 3 and is a highly consistent performer. She is 6-1 on the morning line and could offer value underneath.

Longshots

Miss Lizzy (post 5) at 10-1 is the designated longshot from one handicapping source. She is expected to be last early but could be motoring down the stretch faster than anyone. At her odds, she is a reliable exotic key underneath the more likely contenders.​

Imaboutago (IRE) (post 3) at 12-1 showed in-race adaptability last out and won her prior start at this level. Jockey Armando Ayuso is patient by nature and will give her every chance to run her best race.​

Amorita (post 2) at 15-1 is by Mandella and could outrun her odds with a good trip, but she would need things to fall apart up front.​

Selections

Win: 6 Gratefully

Place: 9 Jungle Peace

Show: 8 Egyptian Mau

Betting Strategy: Gratefully is the likely single in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. For the race itself, the exacta play is 6 over 9, 8, 4. The trifecta keys 6 on top with 4, 8, 9 with 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9. To add a longshot flyer, include Imaboutago (3) and Miss Lizzy (5) in the trifecta and superfecta underneath. A $1 exacta box of 6-9-8 and a $0.50 trifecta of 6 with 4,8,9 with 3,4,5,7,8,9 provides good coverage.

Race 8 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $35,000

Post Time: 4:07 PM Pacific

A field of 10 (with one also-eligible, Susie’s Loaded) for Cal-bred three-year-old maiden fillies at the $50,000 claiming level. This is a maiden race with short form lines and several second- and third-time starters, making it a prime opportunity for improvement angles. Note that Cammy’s Girl (post 6) and California Cat (post 9) are both on the scratch watch.​

Pace Analysis

Speed figures to be contested. Twisted Humor (post 8) has flashed speed in both local sprint tries and will likely be on or near the lead. Shady Stripes (post 5) showed closing ability after a troubled start in her last race. The pace could be moderate with Twisted Humor leading, setting up for her to convert on the front end in her third career start, which is a historically productive pattern for young runners.​

Key Contenders

Twisted Humor (post 8) has flashed speed in both local sprint tries, running back-to-back seconds for Jeff Bonde. She should be primed for a career-best effort with lifetime try number three. The third-start improvement pattern is a powerful angle for young horses, and Bonde is an experienced hand with this type. Edwin Maldonado rides.​

Shady Stripes (post 5) rounded out the Bonde trifecta when behind the top choice last out but had an eventful trip — she checked at the break, dropped to last, then rallied five-wide to finish a good third. The daughter of Smiling Tiger makes her third start of the form cycle, and a cleaner break should put her squarely in contention.​

Cammy’s Girl (post 6) is the top pick from one source and gets Tiago Pereira for Daniel Dunham. She is 4-1 on the morning line but is flagged on the scratch watch. If she runs, she deserves respect.

Secondary Choices

Meridian Mae (post 7) was beaten by double digits in both starts but drops in for a first-time claiming tag today for Mike Puype, who hits at 26% with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns on dirt over the past five years. That is a powerful trainer pattern.​

Lil Tessa (post 1) gets Abel Lezcano and is trained by Jose Hernandez Jr. She is lightly raced and could improve.​

Longshots

Voices of Autism (post 4) at 10-1 gets Kyle Frey for Isidro Tamayo and has a price that could produce value if she moves forward in start number two or three. Can You Dream (post 2) at 20-1 is an outsider with limited form.​

Selections

Win: 8 Twisted Humor

Place: 5 Shady Stripes

Show: 7 Meridian Mae

Betting Strategy: Key Twisted Humor (8) and Shady Stripes (5) in exactas and trifectas. The 8-5 exacta is the primary play. Add Cammy’s Girl (6) if she clears the scratch watch. For trifectas, 8 with 5,6,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 provides depth.

Race 9 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf, Purse $70,000

Post Time: 4:37 PM Pacific

A 14-horse field heading down the famous Santa Anita hillside turf course at 6 1/2 furlongs. This is a competitive allowance optional claiming affair with the $50,000 tag. The downhill course adds a unique dimension, as horses break from a chute near the top of the hill and negotiate a significant change in elevation before joining the flat turf course for the stretch run. Historical data shows that middle and outside posts are favored in large fields on the downhill course, and posts 1-2-3 can be at a disadvantage.​

Pace Analysis

The pace should be honest with Moonlit Sonata (post 1), Double Jab (post 3), and Burning Rubber (post 4) all showing early speed in recent outings. With 14 runners breaking from the downhill start, there will be traffic and the early positioning will be critical. The speed types should set things up for mid-pack runners with tactical flexibility.​

Key Contenders

Anmer Hall (post 9) is the consensus Best Bet from one handicapping source and a top selection from multiple others. This downhill course specialist lost all chance when crowded, pulled up, eased, and walked off the course in his last start on December 28, but had won two prior grass sprint tries before that mishap. He has worked well since and should bounce back with a clean trip for Peter Eurton and Antonio Fresu. His inside draw is a concern at post 9, but in a 14-horse downhill field, that is actually a middle position.

Lyle The Crocodile (IRE) (post 2) drops out of the Grade 2 Mathis Mile for Phil D’Amato and cuts back in distance. The downhill course could suit him on the class relief, though he is still looking for his first Stateside win. Tiago Pereira rides.​

Yacowlef (IRE) (post 5) rallied for the runner-up spot when trying the downhill course for the first time off the claim. The 6-time winner has worked six times since that sharp try and is dangerous with a similar effort for Hector Berrios and Jeff Mullins.​

Secondary Choices

Moonlit Sonata (post 1) at 8-1 is trained by Tim Yakteen and gets Mirco Demuro. He has tactical speed but draws the rail in a 14-horse downhill field, which is historically disadvantageous.

Burning Rubber (post 4) at 8-1 is trained by Sean McCarthy and gets Juan Hernandez. Post 4 is a neutral draw on the downhill course, and Hernandez is the leading rider at the meet.​

Beef Winslow (post 13) at a price gets Florent Geroux for Robert Hess Jr. and draws outside, which can be an advantage on the downhill course.​

Longshots

Helicity (post 6) at longer odds is trained by Yakteen and gets Kimura, a potent combination. Crazy Cavalier (post 8) is trained by Doug O’Neill and could rally from mid-pack at a price. Ballyvaughan Gig (post 11) at a big price is an outsider that could outrun his odds with a pace meltdown.​

Selections

Win: 9 Anmer Hall

Place: 5 Yacowlef

Show: 2 Lyle The Crocodile

Betting Strategy: This is a spread race due to the large field and downhill dynamics. Key Anmer Hall (9) in exactas over 2, 5, 4, and 13. For trifectas, use 9 with 2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5,13. The superfecta should include Burning Rubber (4) and Beef Winslow (13) at prices.

Race 10 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000

Post Time: 5:07 PM Pacific

The nightcap is a wide-open maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf with a full field of 14. This race features several first-time starters and lightly raced imports from the D’Amato and McCarthy barns, making it one of the most intriguing races on the card from a wagering perspective. Note Shane’s the Brains (post 8) is also-eligible.

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as moderate. Shane’s the Brains (post 8) and Essential Lady (post 7) both show early speed, while Channel Place (post 1) and Split (post 2) could also be forwardly placed. With a 14-horse field, there should be an honest enough pace to allow closers a chance, though the turf route bias this meet still favors post 3 (25% win rate) and forward types.

Key Contenders

Yurak (post 10) is the Best Bet of the card from one prominent handicapper. She has two runner-up turf finishes to start her career and stretches back out for the important third try for John Sadler. She goes second-time Lasix and defeated several of her rivals (including two next-out winners) on January 11. The third-start improvement angle is compelling.​

Chair’s Coin (IRE) (post 6) is a 3-1 or 4-1 shot with three thirds from three starts, showing 100% in-the-money consistency. She is a fast closer for Michael McCarthy and Antonio Fresu, drawing post 6 which is neutral in turf routes. She is the consensus top pick from one source.

Daring Pursuit (post 9) is another selection from handicappers and has a 6-1 morning line. She has shown enough in her early starts to warrant attention, and the larger field gives her pace to close into.

Secondary Choices

Cortina d’Amprezzo (IRE) (post 5) is a D’Amato import who finished third in her debut at Del Mar, behind Yurak. She adds Lasix and has trained sharply for her first start off the bench. Kimura rides.​

Darya (IRE) (post 4) is another D’Amato first-timer making her Stateside debut off one third-place finish at Dundalk five months ago. She adds Lasix and has trained well. The D’Amato import angle is always live on turf.​

Zuraya (GB) (post 3) draws the golden post 3 for turf routes and is trained by Michael McCarthy. With the 25% win rate from that post this meet, she deserves a look at a price.

Longshots

Channel Place (post 1) is slowly improving for Doug O’Neill and fired a sharp bullet four furlongs in 46 flat on February 12 over the synthetic track. A career-best effort should be forthcoming.​

Egyptian Mistress (post 11) at 30-1 gets Mike Smith for Hall of Fame trainer Neil Drysdale. The Smith-Drysdale combination at a big price is always worth a small ticket inclusion.​

Lerios (post 14) is a debut runner for Richard Mandella and Mirco Demuro. Mandella hits at a strong 26% win rate with 50% in the money this meet, making any debut runner from this barn worth monitoring.​

Selections

Win: 10 Yurak

Place: 6 Chair’s Coin

Show: 5 Cortina d’Amprezzo

Betting Strategy: This is the ultimate spread race. With 14 runners in a maiden turf mile, the exacta and trifecta payoffs could be enormous. Key Yurak (10) and Chair’s Coin (6) in exactas over 4, 5, 9, and 3. For trifectas, a 6,10 with 3,4,5,9 with 1,3,4,5,9,14 captures the main contenders and several live longshots. Include Lerios (14) for the Mandella debut angle.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Juan Hernandez is the leading rider at the current Santa Anita meet with over 2,400 career wins. He has mounts in multiple races today including Dark Blue (Race 1), Doncic (Race 5), Egyptian Mau (Race 7), Burning Rubber (Race 9), and Yurak (Race 10). His turf route mounts deserve extra respect, particularly Yurak in the nightcap.​

Florent Geroux has the mount on undefeated Gratefully in the Wishing Well Stakes and also rides Mucho Del Oro (Race 5), Canyahearmeknockin (Race 6), and Beef Winslow (Race 9). Geroux has been effective on turf at Santa Anita and is the right pilot for Gratefully’s stakes debut.​

Antonio Fresu has been one of the hottest riders at the meet, hitting at an 18% win rate with a remarkable 50% in the money. He has key mounts on Third Beer (Race 1), Central Dispatch (Race 5), Jungle Peace (Race 7), Anmer Hall (Race 9), and Chair’s Coin (Race 10). Any horse he rides deserves serious consideration.​

Kazushi Kimura is red-hot and has significant mounts including Lila (Race 3), Bowtie Boys (Race 6), Helicity (Race 9), and Cortina d’Amprezzo (Race 10). He is hitting at a 14% win rate with 35% in the money and his switch to Lila in Race 3 is a notable rider change.​

Mirco Demuro, the European import rider, is contributing well this meet at a 19% win rate with 42% in the money. He has mounts on Maker and Sons (Race 1), Spun Not Stirred (Race 6), Amorita (Race 7), Moonlit Sonata (Race 9), Essential Lady (Race 10), and Lerios (Race 10). His experience on European turf courses gives him an edge on the grass.​

Abel Lezcano is riding at a solid rate with mounts on Bitter Truth (Race 4), Grandisimo (Race 6), Lil Tessa (Race 8), and Shady Tiger (Race 9).​

Hector Berrios has been productive at 21% wins and 50% in the money this meet. He rides Saratoga Special (Race 7) and Yacowlef (Race 9), both live contenders.​

Victor Espinoza, the veteran rider, has the call on Delightful Laura (Race 3). His experience in route turf races is valuable, and the 12% win rate is supplemented by a 31% in-the-money mark.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Tim Yakteen has a strong presence on the card with Third Beer (Race 1), Bowtie Boys (Race 6), Moonlit Sonata (Race 9), Helicity (Race 9), Split (Race 10), and Essential Lady (Race 10). He is hitting at 17% wins with 48% in the money this meet, and both Third Beer and Bowtie Boys are top selections in their respective races.

Phil D’Amato is one of the premier turf trainers in Southern California, hitting at 14% wins with an outstanding 54% in the money at the current meet. He has Princess Em Too (Race 3), Jungle Peace (Race 7), Lyle The Crocodile (Race 9), Shady Tiger (Race 9), Darya (Race 10), and Cortina d’Amprezzo (Race 10). His imports on turf are always dangerous, and Jungle Peace in the Wishing Well Stakes is a serious contender. His debut runners from Europe consistently outperform their odds.

John Sadler trains multiple horses on the card including Ventry Strand (Race 1), Can’t Help Myself (Race 1), Central Dispatch (Race 5), Decapo (Race 9), and Yurak (Race 10). Sadler is experienced at placing horses to advantage, and Central Dispatch’s class drop and Yurak’s third-start pattern are both quality angles.​

Michael McCarthy is having a productive meet at 19% wins with 36% in the money. He trains Dark Blue (Race 1), Preem (Race 3), Hotrocket (Race 5), Zuraya (Race 10), and Chair’s Coin (Race 10). Dark Blue and Chair’s Coin are both live selections.​

Robert Falcone Jr. conditions the undefeated Gratefully in the Wishing Well Stakes. Though not a household name at Santa Anita, Falcone has managed Gratefully’s career perfectly, bringing her along from her debut at Saratoga through stakes company with improving speed figures at each start.

Richard Baltas trains Lila (Race 3), Miss Artois (Race 3), and the imported Saratoga Special (Race 7). He has integrated the Irish import well with consistent synthetic track works, and his turf routing ability with Lila in Race 3 makes her a live longshot.​

Jeff Bonde has a strong hand in Race 8 with both Twisted Humor and Shady Stripes, who finished one-two in their last start. He also trains Aloha Chrome (Race 6) and Siempre Naman (Race 4).​

Peter Eurton is hitting at an impressive 25% win rate this meet and trains Delightful Laura (Race 3) and Anmer Hall (Race 9), both top selections in their respective races.​

Neil Drysdale, the Hall of Fame conditioner, trains Egyptian Mau (Race 7) and Egyptian Mistress (Race 10). His class-relief angle with Egyptian Mau dropping from the Grade 3 Las Cienegas is a strong move.​

Richard Mandella is hitting at a remarkable 26% wins with 50% in the money this meet. He trains Amorita (Race 7) and Lerios (Race 10). Any debut runner from Mandella deserves ticket inclusion, particularly on turf.​

Leonard Powell trains Resolve (Race 3), Imaboutago (Race 7), and Nerida (Race 10). He is hitting at 15% wins with 46% in the money.​

Doug O’Neill trains Going Deep (Race 3), Irish Element (Race 6), Miss Lizzy (Race 7), Channel Place (Race 10), Shane’s the Brains (Race 10), Pioneer Prince (Race 5), and Crazy Cavalier (Race 9). His volume approach means runners at various price ranges.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The overall wagering strategy for this card centers on identifying the races where a single can be played with confidence versus the races that demand spreading. The card has three clear singling opportunities and several must-spread races.

Strong Singles for Multi-Race Sequences:

Bowtie Boys (5, Race 6) is the strongest single on the card. He has the pace all to himself in a weak field, is trained by a top conditioner, and gets a top jockey. He was the consensus top pick from every handicapping source reviewed and is a Best Bet selection at 2-1.

Gratefully (6, Race 7) is the feature race single. At 2-1, she does not offer tremendous win value, but her perfect record and improving form make her the most trustworthy horse on the card. She should be used as a single in the late Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) to create savings for spreading in the other legs.

Third Beer (4, Race 1) is a class dropper from graded stakes into an allowance optional claiming spot. He should be shorter than his morning line of 3-1 and is a defensible single in the early Pick 5.​

Must-Spread Races:

Race 5 (14-horse turf claiming sprint), Race 9 (14-horse downhill turf), and Race 10 (14-horse maiden turf mile) are the three races that demand wide tickets. These large fields with competitive runners will produce payoffs that justify the cost of spreading.

Value Plays at Morning Line Odds:

Anmer Hall (9, Race 9) at 8-1 or higher represents the best value on the card. He is a downhill specialist coming off a troubled trip that was entirely not his fault, and he has worked well since. At his odds, he is an overlay.

Yurak (10, Race 10) should offer value at 5-1 or higher as the Best Bet selection from one prominent handicapper. Her two runner-up finishes and third-start improvement angle make her a compelling play at that price.​

Imaboutago (3, Race 7) at 12-1 represents longshot value in the Wishing Well Stakes as a horse with tactical speed and course-and-distance form who could outrun her odds.​

Play for Me (4, Race 4) at 2-1 on the morning line could drift higher given the unpredictable nature of maiden claiming races. If she reaches 3-1 or better, she offers value with her second-start improvement angle.​

Late Pick 3 Strategy (Races 7-8-9):

Single Gratefully (6) in Race 7. Use Twisted Humor (8), Shady Stripes (5), and Cammy’s Girl (6) in Race 8. Spread Race 9 with Anmer Hall (9), Yacowlef (5), Lyle The Crocodile (2), and Burning Rubber (4). This produces a $0.50 Pick 3 ticket of: 6 / 5,6,8 / 2,4,5,9 = $6.00 total cost with strong coverage.

Early Pick 5 Strategy (Races 1-5):

Single Third Beer (4) in Race 1. Use Morello (2) and Carol’s Comic (5) in Race 2. Use Delightful Laura (9), Resolve (10), and Lila (1) in Race 3. Use Play for Me (4) and Tom’s Star (8) in Race 4. Spread Race 5 with Central Dispatch (2), Doncic (3), Code Duello (7), and Harcyn (11). This produces a $0.50 Pick 5 ticket of: 4 / 2,5 / 1,9,10 / 4,8 / 2,3,7,11 = $24.00 total cost.

These wagering structures take advantage of the singling opportunities in the higher-confidence races while preserving bankroll for the races that demand spreading, maximizing the potential for a meaningful payoff across the card.