Posted inTracks

Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 7, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inTracks

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Saturday, March 7 is one of the premier race days of the 2025-2026 Santa Anita winter meet. The 11-race card features four graded stakes, headlined by two Grade 1 events and two Grade 2 events, and carries the designation of “Big Cap Day” in honor of the historic Santa Anita Handicap. With Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and top-level competition for older horses on both dirt and turf, this is the deepest card of the meet.

The four featured stakes are the Beholder Mile (G1) for fillies and mares at one mile on dirt, the San Felipe Stakes (G2) for three-year-olds at 1-1/16 miles on dirt, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G2) for older males at one mile on turf, and the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at 1-1/4 miles on dirt for older males. First post is at 12:00 PM Pacific.​

Two significant scratches impact the card. Skippylongstocking, the Pegasus World Cup winner and probable favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap, was scratched after acting up while boarding a flight to California. Westwood, the San Pasqual Stakes winner, was also scratched from the Big Cap due to distance and pace concerns, with connections opting to next run in the New Orleans Classic at 1-1/8 miles on March 21. These scratches reduce the Santa Anita Handicap field from seven to five runners.

Weather and Track Conditions

Saturday's forecast calls for sunny skies with a high near 79 degrees Fahrenheit and a low around 52-55 degrees. Northeast winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph are expected during the day. Humidity will be low, around 30%, with dew points near 23 degrees. No precipitation is expected, and the region has been in an extended dry pattern.​

Given these conditions, the main track should be labeled Fast and the turf course should be Firm. The wind could be a factor, particularly for turf races, as gusts up to 40 mph from the northeast could create headwinds or tailwinds depending on race position. Speed horses racing into the wind on the backstretch of turf routes could face headwinds, while those closing on the far turn and into the stretch may benefit from a tailwind. This is worth monitoring as post time approaches.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Santa Anita is not known for a pronounced track bias. Statistics from the current meet (12/28/2025 through 02/28/2026) reflect that horses close to the lead and deep closers reach the winner's circle with near-equal regularity.​

For dirt sprints (under one mile), post positions 3 and 4 have been the most productive, winning at 19% and 18% respectively, while post 2 has been weakest at 10%. For dirt routes (one mile and over), post 4 leads at 18% and post 6 has been strong at 19%, while the rail and post 2 are both at 14%.​

On the turf, the rail is a genuine advantage for sprints, winning at 19%, tied with posts 2 and 5. In turf routes, however, posts 3 and 4 have been dominant, winning at 22% and 20% respectively, while post 5 has been abysmal at just 3%. The rail in turf routes wins at a reasonable 12%. These turf route statistics are particularly important for the Kilroe Mile and the starter allowance in Race 5.​

Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Turf

Post Time: 12:00 PM PT

California-bred or California-sired maidens, three-year-olds, purse $70,000. A field of ten goes in this turf sprint to open the card.

Pace Analysis

This race projects to have moderate early speed. Parnelli Jones (10) has shown a front-running style and should be quick from the outside post. Sirnami (4) and Booked Clubhouse (3) both show stalking profiles in their past performance lines. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, which could set up for a versatile type.​

Key Contenders

Booked Clubhouse (3) is the 3-1 morning line favorite and merits that status coming off a runner-up effort behind repeat winner Romantic Ride, where he broke a touch slowly but rallied well for the place spot. He goes second-time Lasix for conditioner Sean McCarthy and has Kyle Frey aboard. Posts 3 and 4 have been productive for turf sprints this meet, and a forward stalking trip from this draw should suit.

Parnelli Jones (10) has a pair of thirds to start his career and now makes the switch to turf for trainer Mark Glatt, who wins at a 27% clip at the meet. The outside post is not ideal for a six-furlong turf sprint, but his speed should keep him forwardly placed. Abel Lezcano rides.

King's Ride (9) is a first-time starter by Clubhouse Ride who debuts with Lasix for trainer Craig Lewis with leading rider Juan Hernandez in the irons. However, the Lewis barn is 0-for-14 with turf firsters over the past five years, which is a significant negative angle.​

Secondary Choices

Sirnami (4) has shown some run in his prior starts at 6-1 on the morning line and draws a favorable post for a turf sprint. Tight Dally (2) for Peter Eurton gets Armando Ayuso aboard at 8-1, though his form is modest.​

Longshots

Cotton Mouth (8) at 20-1 is an interesting first-time starter for Peter Miller with Florent Geroux, who wins at a remarkable 38% clip at the meet. The Geroux-Miller combo is always worth a look at a price.​

Selections

Win: Booked Clubhouse (3)
Place: Parnelli Jones (10)
Show: King's Ride (9)

Betting Strategy

Booked Clubhouse (3) may go off at lower odds than his 3-1 morning line. The value play is to key him on top of exactas with Parnelli Jones (10) and King's Ride (9) underneath. Cotton Mouth (8) is worth a small saver ticket underneath at 20-1.

Race 2 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 12:30 PM PT

Four-year-olds and upward, purse $70,000, with an optional $50,000 claiming tag. Eight go in this dirt sprint.

Pace Analysis

This race projects to have contested speed. For All Mankind (1) figures to show early speed from the rail. Comedy Town (5) and Red Flag (6) both have tactical speed as well. A pace battle could develop, which would benefit closers.

Key Contenders

The Last Straw (4) exits a sharp 2-3/4-length maiden victory on February 15 when blinkers were added, posting the field's best last-out dirt speed figure. The $250,000 Into Mischief colt is trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Mirco Demuro. He is well-spotted for his first crack at winners and the 8-1 morning line looks generous given his improving form.​

Red Flag (6) has run well in both main-track sprint starts to open 2026 for trainer Jeff Mullins, posting strong figures. The 8-time winner is an experienced closer who figures to be rolling late making his third start of the form cycle.​

Simple Song (7) at 7/2 for Mark Glatt gets Kazushi Kimura aboard and has been given a strong rating by algorithmic models. He adds blinkers and could sit a perfect stalking trip.​

Secondary Choices

For All Mankind (1) flashed speed and tired when last seen at Los Alamitos but switches back to Juan Hernandez, who has a win and two seconds aboard this veteran gelding. Comedy Town (5) at 5-1 has veteran Hector Berrios up for Papaprodromou.

Longshots

Baladi (8) at 30-1 is the clear outsider and would need a pace meltdown to have any impact.​

Selections

Win: The Last Straw (4)
Place: Red Flag (6)
Show: Simple Song (7)

Betting Strategy

The Last Straw (4) at 8-1 morning line represents the best value on the card in the early races. Key him in exactas over Red Flag (6) and Simple Song (7), and use him on top of trifectas.

Race 3 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Turf

Post Time: 1:02 PM PT

Fillies, three-year-olds, purse $70,000, with an $80,000 claiming tag option. Six fillies contest this turf sprint.

Pace Analysis

This should be a pace-friendly race with moderate early speed. Will Happen (2) showed good speed in her maiden win sprinting at Del Mar and should be forwardly placed. Umbralle (1) showed tactical speed in her last start. The small field and manageable pace should favor the class horses.​

Key Contenders

Will Happen (2) drops from the Surfer Girl (G3) into this softer allowance spot for trainer Richard Baltas and is the 9/5 morning line favorite. The daughter of Vekoma was a convincing 4-1/2-length maiden winner sprinting at Del Mar and adds Lasix today with Juan Hernandez riding. The class drop is significant, and she has trained well off the five-month layoff. This is the Best Bet selection of at least one prominent handicapper for the entire card.​

Umbralle (1) for John Sadler finished a solid third in the Sweet Life Stakes on February 7 at 22-1 in a bulky field and now drops back to the level of her second-place finish two back. She faces several runners she has already beaten. Abel Lezcano rides from the rail, which is a plus for turf sprints this meet.

Secondary Choices

Bourbon And Ginger (5) has not hit the board in six straight races since winning on debut at Del Mar last summer, but she has been facing mostly stakes foes in those starts. A recent three-furlong blowout in :35 flat on March 1 catches the eye, and the Mandella-Demuro combination is potent.​

Cosmic Heat (4) for Peter Eurton at 9/2 brings some tactical ability and gets Antonio Fresu aboard.​

Longshots

South Bay (6) at 12-1 is the outsider for Tim Yakteen, but she would need significant improvement to factor against this group.​

Selections

Win: Will Happen (2)
Place: Umbralle (1)
Show: Bourbon And Ginger (5)

Betting Strategy

Will Happen (2) may go off as an odds-on favorite, limiting win value. The better approach is to box Umbralle (1), Will Happen (2), and Bourbon And Ginger (5) in exactas and trifectas, with Will Happen (2) on top of most combinations.

Race 4 — Beholder Mile (G1), 1 Mile Dirt

Post Time: 1:34 PM PT

The $300,000 Beholder Mile for fillies and mares four-year-olds and upward. Six runners line up for this Grade 1 test at one mile on the main track.

Pace Analysis

There is tactical speed throughout this field. Splendora (4) has shown she can take a field gate-to-wire or press the pace. Nafisa (6) broke running in the La Canada and attended the pace before pulling clear. Simply Joking (2) also wants to be forwardly placed. The pace could be contested, but it is unlikely to be extreme with only six runners. Bless The Broken (5) and Om N Joy (1) both project as stalker types who could benefit from any early duel.

Key Contenders

Splendora (4) is the deserving 4/5 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert. The daughter of Audible has finished first or second in 10 of 11 career starts and has won four straight, including the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) and the D. Wayne Lukas Stakes (G2) last out. She holds a significant speed figure advantage over this field and has Juan Hernandez, the meet's leading rider, in the irons. The only question is stretching to two turns, as her lone try at a mile came in the ungraded Tranquility Lake at Del Mar, which she won, and she has been runner-up twice at distances beyond a mile. Handicappers near-unanimously rate her the one to beat.

Nafisa (6) is the value play in this race at 8-1 on the morning line. Baffert's “other” entry has won three straight after failing to break her maiden in 12 tries. Her front-running 4-3/4-length victory in the La Canada (G3) at 1-1/16 miles demonstrated that she can carry her speed two turns effectively. Jockey Kazushi Kimura, who guided all three wins, returns aboard. Striking while the iron is hot against a stablemate who has class but a different running style represents a legitimate upset scenario.

Secondary Choices

Om N Joy (1) was a rising California-bred star who proved she could compete in open company when winning the Torrey Pines (G3) at Del Mar. This is her first start since October and her first against older company, but she won first off the bench last year. Kent Desormeaux rides from the rail at 5-1.​

Bless The Broken (5) won an allowance at Fair Grounds in her lone start as a four-year-old and was third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) for different connections. The Brad Cox trainee, now owned by Qatar Racing, was a $950,000 purchase and has upside in her second start of the form cycle. Florent Geroux rides at 6-1.​

Longshots

Dazzling Move (3) ships from South Florida for Saffie Joseph Jr. and adds blinkers. She has yet to replicate her strong Saratoga form from last summer and needs significant improvement here. Simply Joking (2) at 5-1 has tactical speed but was scratched from the Lukas as a vet scratch and needs to prove fitness.

Selections

Win: Splendora (4)
Place: Nafisa (6)
Show: Om N Joy (1)

Betting Strategy

Splendora (4) will likely be odds-on and offers little win value. The play in this race is keying Nafisa (6) on top of exactas at 8-1, with Splendora (4) and Om N Joy (1) underneath. A Nafisa (6) over Splendora (4) exacta could return a healthy payoff. For trifectas, use Splendora (4) and Nafisa (6) on top with Om N Joy (1), Bless The Broken (5), and Simply Joking (2) filling out the bottom.

Race 5 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile Turf

Post Time: 2:05 PM PT

Four-year-olds and upward, purse $37,000, for horses that have started for a claiming price of $32,000 or less. Nine runners in this turf route.

Pace Analysis

Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) is the commanding speed in this race, having won his last two turf mile starts wire-to-wire for Papaprodromou. He will aim to get to the front and dictate terms. Phosphorescence (4) finished second behind him last time and could press but was a beaten favorite in that effort. The pace should be moderate and controlled by Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) unless someone challenges early.​​

Key Contenders

Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) has won two straight one-mile turf routes and looks like the dominant speed again today. The veteran 8-year-old is an 8-time winner and is well-positioned for a third consecutive victory. He has a 43% win rate at this distance with Kyle Frey aboard. However, post 6 in turf routes has been just 11% for wins this meet, which tempers enthusiasm slightly.

Vantastic (7) is the logical closer and primary threat. The 10-year-old gelding shows no signs of slowing down for Peter Eurton and finished a solid runner-up last October versus similar. Juan Hernandez rides, and the veteran can make a sustained late run if the pace is honest.

Secondary Choices

Cathal (9) at 9/2 gets Victor Espinoza aboard for Steve Knapp and has shown some late speed in his recent starts. Phosphorescence (4) makes his third start of the form cycle for Michael McCarthy and finished second behind Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) last out.

Longshots

One Of These Days (8) at 10-1 and Kawazaki (2) at 8-1 are worth minor consideration underneath in exotics.​

Selections

Win: Jimmy Blue Jeans (6)
Place: Vantastic (7)
Show: Phosphorescence (4)

Betting Strategy

Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) figures to go off near 2-1 or lower. The value play is an exacta box of Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) and Vantastic (7) with a saver of Cathal (9) in the third slot of a trifecta.

Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 2:36 PM PT

Three-year-olds, purse $70,000. A field of ten well-bred colts and geldings contest this dirt sprint, highlighted by a Baffert trio.

Pace Analysis

This is a firster-heavy field, making pace projections uncertain. Memory (9) has shown speed in his workouts and may be sent early by Hernandez. Captain Shreve (10) has displayed a stalking profile in his prior starts. Civil Liberty (2) is a deep closer who has raced from well back in his prior routes. With several debuters, expect moderate early speed followed by a strong late pace.

Key Contenders

Memory (9) is the 2-1 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert. The $775,000 son of Uncle Mo debuts with Lasix off a spirited work tab and lures the barn's go-to rider Juan Hernandez for today's unveiling. Baffert wins at a 70% clip at the current meet, and his first-time starters always demand respect.

Captain Shreve (10) for George Papaprodromou has been a model of consistency with four consecutive runner-up finishes, including a second at six furlongs on this track. The 5-1 morning line seems fair for a horse who has shown he belongs and simply needs to find a way to get his nose in front. Kyle Frey rides.​

Civil Liberty (2) drops from back-to-back Grade 1 events for Doug O'Neill on the turnback in distance. He adds Lasix and has trained well off the layoff. Emisael Jaramillo, who has a 35% win rate with O'Neill entries, rides at 4-1.

Secondary Choices

Embry Show (4) is another Baffert debutant (by Modernist) who has trained swiftly, including a “best of 78” four-furlong gate drill in :47 flat. Tyler Gaffalione, in town for the stakes, picks up the mount at 8-1. Deep Tracks (6) at 8-1 for Peter Eurton gets Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard and showed third in his lone start at six furlongs here.

Longshots

Crude Velocity (1) at 10-1 is yet another Baffert firster with Florent Geroux aboard. The scratch watch listed a vet scratch for this horse, so check pre-race status carefully. Decisive Win (3) at 10-1 is a $600,000 Nyquist colt debuting for O'Neill who has “trained like a good thing” according to one handicapper.

Selections

Win: Memory (9)
Place: Captain Shreve (10)
Show: Civil Liberty (2)

Betting Strategy

Memory (9) will likely be heavily bet down from 2-1. The value in this race lies in the trifecta and superfecta with the plethora of well-bred debuters. Key Memory (9) and Captain Shreve (10) on top with Civil Liberty (2), Embry Show (4), and Deep Tracks (6) filling the lower rungs.

Race 7 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Turf

Post Time: 3:09 PM PT

Fillies, three-year-olds, purse $70,000. A large field of 13 maidens line up for this turf sprint, beginning the late Pick 5 and All-Turf Pick 3.

Pace Analysis

With 13 runners, expect some early jostling. Banzai Betty (6) has shown some front-end speed in her dirt starts. Whatastarr (11) has been a pacesetter in her European-bred racing style. However, many of these are first-time starters, making pace projections speculative. The large field should produce an honest pace, benefiting stalkers and closers.​

Key Contenders

Mo Sasha (1) is the 2-1 morning line favorite after rallying for second at 7-1 in an encouraging 6-1/2-furlong turf debut on January 31. The daughter of Constitution showed serious talent splitting two speed horses with a big late run. Juan Hernandez will need to work out a trip from the rail post, but the rail is a positive for turf sprints this meet at 19% winners. The Michael McCarthy trainee should improve significantly in her second start. The McCarthy-Hernandez combination is 3-for-13 (23%) with second-time grass starters.

High Society U (9) at 9/2 for Jonathan Thomas gets Kazushi Kimura in the irons and has been given a strong rating by the morning line. She is a first-time starter who has generated significant buzz based on her morning workouts.​

Secondary Choices

Somerset West (8) is a debuter for John Sadler at 5-1 with Armando Ayuso up. Sadler wins at a strong 32% clip at the meet. Padel Addict (5) ships in from the Phil D'Amato barn as an Irish-bred daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Ten Sovereigns and gets Tyler Gaffalione, in town for the stakes, in the irons at 8-1. She may be better than her disappointing initial U.S. start suggested.

Jasmine (13) at 8-1 for Peter Eurton has shown some figures in her prior start and gets Florent Geroux aboard. The Geroux figures at this meet (38% wins) lend her a significant rider edge.

Longshots

Everything Good (7) at 12-1 is a first-time starter by Charlatan for John Sadler with Abel Lezcano aboard. The sire gets a strong 22% with debut runners, making this one worth monitoring in the tote action. Medjugorje (12) at 20-1 for Richard Mandella with Mirco Demuro riding is an intriguing dark horse from a top barn.​

Selections

Win: Mo Sasha (1)
Place: High Society U (9)
Show: Padel Addict (5)

Betting Strategy

This 13-horse maiden field is a prime exotic opportunity. Mo Sasha (1) should be the anchor on top, but use multiple runners underneath for trifectas and superfectas. Key Mo Sasha (1) over High Society U (9), Somerset West (8), Padel Addict (5), and Jasmine (13) in exactas.

Race 8 — San Felipe Stakes (G2), 1-1/16 Miles Dirt

Post Time: 3:41 PM PT

The $200,000 San Felipe Stakes for three-year-olds is the day's premier Kentucky Derby prep, offering 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to the top five finishers. Seven three-year-olds will contest this 1-1/16-mile test on the main track.

Pace Analysis

This is where the San Felipe gets fascinating. Brant (4) set the early pace in both the Del Mar Futurity and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Potente (5) won his debut in front-running fashion going six furlongs. Flashy Fritz (1) possesses enough early speed to keep the leaders honest. With multiple speed horses signed on, the pace should be contested and honest, which is a key factor favoring off-the-pace types. So Happy (6) is positioned to benefit from any pace meltdown, having stalked a blistering :43.56 half-mile in the San Vicente before powering clear.

Key Contenders

So Happy (6) is the top pick among multiple prominent handicappers and the horse to beat here. Trained by Mark Glatt with Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard, the son of Runhappy enters off a convincing victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente, where he stalked blazing fractions and powered past the tiring leader. He is undefeated in two career starts, and Smith has raved about his recent works, calling his most recent breeze “Dynamite”. The only question is stretching to two turns for the first time, but Smith addressed that directly: “He's given me every indication in his sprint races that he would do it. I never felt like I was on fumes at the end.” At 2-1 on the morning line, he represents the top choice based on form, running style, and the race setup.

Brant (4) is the even-money morning line favorite for Bob Baffert. The $3 million Gun Runner colt won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). However, there are legitimate reasons for skepticism. He tired after setting the pace in the Juvenile, he may face pace pressure again with stablemate Potente (5) also showing speed, and his work tab since January has been relatively light with only six workouts. Multiple handicappers are willing to let him beat them at short odds.

Secondary Choices

Potente (5) is the wild card at 9/2. The $2.4 million Into Mischief colt broke his maiden at first asking in late January in front-running fashion going six furlongs. He shows significant raw talent, and Juan Hernandez takes the mount. The question is whether his second career start, stretching out to two turns for the first time, is too much too soon.

Secured Freedom (3) at 8-1 is a live longshot valued by at least one prominent handicapper as the top pick in the field. Trained by Tim Yakteen, this Practical Joke colt runs more like a stayer with a long stride and a habit of galloping out strongly. His Robert B. Lewis (G3) third was compromised by a wide trip where he lost ground on the final turn. At 8-1, there is value if the speed collapses.​

Longshots

Start The Ride (2) at 12-1 won the California Cup Derby at this distance for Dan Blacker. His trainer is confident that distance is not a problem: “The longer the races are, the better he's going to be.” Robusta (7) at 20-1 adds blinkers for O'Neill after a disappointing Lewis effort and is an outside-gate longshot with minimal win chances.​

Selections

Win: So Happy (6)
Place: Brant (4)
Show: Secured Freedom (3)

Betting Strategy

So Happy (6) at 2-1 is a fair price given the pace setup and his talent. The key exotic play is a cold exacta of So Happy (6) over Brant (4), with a saver exacta of So Happy (6) over Secured Freedom (3). For trifectas, key So Happy (6) on top, with Brant (4) and Potente (5) in the second slot, and Secured Freedom (3) and Start The Ride (2) filling the third. If looking for a bomb, consider a Secured Freedom (3) over So Happy (6) exacta.

Race 9 — Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G2), 1 Mile Turf

Post Time: 4:12 PM PT

The $200,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile for four-year-olds and upward. Eight stakes winners, including four graded stakes winners, contest this prestigious turf mile.​

Pace Analysis

This is the most pace-laden race on the card. El Potente (3) is likely to show his customary speed. Mi Bago (6), shipping in for Mark Casse, may be the quickest of all. Cabo Spirit (5) wants to be close to the lead. Final Boss (7) also does his best running on or near the pace. With four legitimate speed horses, the fractions figure to be blistering, setting up a strong closing scenario.​

Key Contenders

Gas Me Up (4) gets the ideal setup here. The Peter Eurton trainee won the Joe Hernandez (G2) down the hill two back and finished second to El Potente (3) in the Thunder Road (G3) last time. With four speed horses likely to light up the fractions, Gas Me Up (4) can sit off the pace under Mirco Demuro and finish the deal. He won the King Edward (G2) at Woodbine last year in similar fashion, and his 7/2 morning line looks fair.

El Potente (3) is the 5/2 morning line favorite after a dominant 3-3/4-length victory in the Thunder Road, where he sped through fast fractions under Hector Berrios and pulled away. It was his second consecutive Thunder Road win. He has demonstrated he can rate slightly if necessary, but against this much speed, he will face the toughest pace test of his career. He could still hang on for a piece even if outfinished.​

Secondary Choices

Almendares (2) for Phil D'Amato is a midpack-to-closing type who reliably musters a late run. He ran a surprisingly strong third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at 37-1 last out and now gets a class drop and a return to his best distance. Tyler Gaffalione rides from post 2, which has been solid for turf routes at 13%. At 9/2 on the morning line, he is the other value play in this race.

Mi Hermano Ramon (1) returns for Mark Glatt after eight months on the sidelines, and the graded stakes winner has Antonio Fresu aboard from the rail. He needs to show he is fit off the layoff.​

Longshots

Astronomer (8) at 8-1 for Simon Callaghan could get a nice trip from the back of this speed-heavy field but has not won since an allowance in 2023. Cabo Spirit (5) at 10-1 is an honest pace horse who often hangs on for a minor share even when the pace takes a toll.​​

Selections

Win: Gas Me Up (4)
Place: Almendares (2)
Show: El Potente (3)

Betting Strategy

Gas Me Up (4) and Almendares (2) are the value plays against pace-compromised El Potente (3). Key Gas Me Up (4) and Almendares (2) on top of exactas with El Potente (3) and Astronomer (8) underneath. This is a race where the trifecta and superfecta could return substantial payoffs if the speed burns out. A Gas Me Up (4) with Almendares (2) exacta is the prime wager.​

Race 10 — Santa Anita Handicap (G1), 1-1/4 Miles Dirt

Post Time: 4:43 PM PT

The historic $300,000 Santa Anita Handicap, known as the “Big Cap,” for four-year-olds and upward at 1-1/4 miles. The field has been reduced to five runners with the scratches of Skippylongstocking and Westwood.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario is critical in this race. Midnight Mammoth (1) has shown the ability to lead or rate from the rail. Getaway Car (2) pressed the pace in the San Pasqual and should be forwardly placed. Just A Touch (3) is comfortable as a presser or stalker. Vodka Vodka (4) is a stalker who can pounce from midpack. British Isles (5) can track from midpack and produce a late kick. The pace should be moderate for 1-1/4 miles, with the race developing around the far turn.

Key Contenders

Just A Touch (3) is the 3/2 morning line favorite and the consensus top pick. The Brad Cox trainee has hit the board in nine of ten lifetime starts, including runner-up finishes in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and a third in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), but still seeks his first stakes victory. He returned from six months off to finish second by a neck in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) and fired back-to-back bullet drills in preparation for his first Southern California start. Florent Geroux rides. The scratches of Skippylongstocking and Westwood have simplified this race considerably for him.

Getaway Car (2) at 3-1 for Bob Baffert improved significantly in his second start back when runner-up to Westwood in the San Pasqual, beaten 2-3/4 lengths while pressing the pace. He earned a new career-best speed figure in that start. With Westwood now scratched, the horse who beat him is out, and Juan Hernandez rides from an ideal post.

Secondary Choices

British Isles (5) at 6-1 is the value selection that multiple handicappers have identified. He was a close second in the Native Diver (G3) on dirt at Del Mar and finished clear of Westwood that day. He has stamina for this distance as an allowance winner at 1-1/2 miles on turf, and he projects to benefit from the pace scenario as a closer. In a race that looks like a war of attrition, his stamina could carry the day.

Vodka Vodka (4) at 6-1 has won three of his last four starts and carries the lightest weight at 116 pounds with Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux aboard. Trainer Aggie Ordonez reported him “floating on air” after a sharp work. He represents live value in a compact field.​

Longshots

Midnight Mammoth (1) at 8-1 was last of five in the San Pasqual, beaten by 21-1/4 lengths. His best efforts have come at 1-1/4 miles or longer, and he did finish second in last year's Hollywood Gold Cup at this distance. He needs significant improvement but gets the advantageous rail draw and could benefit from a slow early pace if he controls the tempo.

Selections

Win: Just A Touch (3)
Place: British Isles (5)
Show: Getaway Car (2)

Betting Strategy

Just A Touch (3) will likely go off below his 3/2 morning line with the field reduced. The value play is keying British Isles (5) at 6-1 in exactas under and over Just A Touch (3). For trifectas, use Just A Touch (3) and British Isles (5) on top, with Getaway Car (2) and Vodka Vodka (4) filling the lower rungs. A British Isles (5) upset win exacta over Just A Touch (3) could produce a generous payoff.

Race 11 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf

Post Time: 5:13 PM PT

California-bred or California-sired four-year-olds and upward, purse $70,000, with a $20,000 claiming tag option. Ten runners close out the card in this turf route.

Pace Analysis

Warm Sun And Brew (1) has shown a front-running style in his turf routes. Keithing Thunder (4) could also show some early speed. Infinitum (7) has raced from midpack in his prior starts. The pace should be moderate, and the race could develop as a two-horse affair between the Glatt-trained favorites.​

Key Contenders

Infinitum (7) at 5/2 is the morning line choice for the Mark Glatt and Juan Hernandez tandem. The lightly raced Grazen gelding just missed second in his first turf try on February 14 and now takes a significant drop today on the stretch-out. He has hit the board in all three lifetime starts with a 40% win rate. The Hernandez-Glatt combination is always dangerous.

Warm Sun And Brew (1) at 3-1 adds blinkers and has run well in all four career grass starts for Glatt, improving with each subsequent start. He makes his third start of the form cycle today, and Antonio Fresu rides from the rail. He has a 50% win rate and 100% show rate at this distance on turf.

Secondary Choices

King Of Dragons (9) at 7/2 for Peter Eurton gets Hector Berrios aboard. This is a competitive field from the algorithmic standpoint, with three horses closely grouped at the top of the odds board.​

Prince Dolce (6) at 8-1 for Steve Knapp recently won at 1-1/8 miles on this turf course and gets Ricardo Gonzalez up from a favorable post.​

Longshots

Minister Shane (5) at 12-1 goes from two sprints to a route for trainer Carla Gaines, and runners from a recent sprint event he competed in have returned to win. Freeport Joe (8) at 10-1 is a veteran closer with enough late energy to fill out exotic tickets.

Selections

Win: Infinitum (7)
Place: Warm Sun And Brew (1)
Show: King Of Dragons (9)

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive finale ideal for exotic play. Box Infinitum (7), Warm Sun And Brew (1), and King Of Dragons (9) in exactas and add Prince Dolce (6) and Minister Shane (5) for trifecta and superfecta depth.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Juan J. Hernandez is the dominant rider at the current meet, leading with a 35% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate from 373 mounts. He has eight mounts on the card, including high-profile assignments on Splendora (4) in the Beholder Mile, Potente (5) in the San Felipe, and Getaway Car (2) in the Big Cap. His presence on any runner adds immediate credibility, and his lone mount in Race 1 on King's Ride (9) will attract tote action despite the cold trainer stats.​

Florent Geroux is riding at an eye-popping 38% win rate at the current meet, albeit from a smaller sample of rides. He draws premium mounts today including Just A Touch (3) in the Big Cap, Crude Velocity (1) and Bless The Broken (5) in the Beholder Mile. His assignment on Just A Touch (3) in the Big Cap is significant as the Brad Cox trainee is the morning line favorite.​

Mike Smith, the Hall of Famer, has been increasingly selective with his mounts but maintains a 29% clip when he does ride. His assignment on So Happy (6) in the San Felipe is the marquee ride of the day. Smith raved about the colt's recent breeze and has guided him in both career starts.

Mirco Demuro leads the turf jockey rankings and has a strong 25% win rate from 169 mounts at the meet. His assignment on Gas Me Up (4) in the Kilroe Mile is a key ride, as the pair won the Joe Hernandez (G2) together.​

Tyler Gaffalione is in town specifically for stakes assignments, picking up the ride on Embry Show (4) in Race 6, Padel Addict (5) in Race 7, Dazzling Move (3) in the Beholder, and Almendares (2) in the Kilroe. His presence on these horses signals connections' confidence in live chances.​

Kazushi Kimura rides at a modest 17% clip overall but has been trusted with significant mounts including Nafisa (6) in the Beholder Mile and Secured Freedom (3) in the San Felipe. He guided Nafisa (6) to all three of her consecutive wins.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert dominates the Santa Anita trainer standings with an extraordinary 70% win rate from 99 starters this meet. He saddles nine horses on the card across seven races, including pairs in the Beholder Mile (Splendora and Nafisa) and San Felipe (Brant and Potente), plus Getaway Car in the Big Cap and three maidens in Race 6 (Memory, Embry Show, and Crude Velocity). His first-time starters and horses returning from layoffs merit special attention and will absorb significant betting money.​

Mark Glatt runs at a 27% win rate and has 59% in-the-money starters. He trains San Felipe contender So Happy (6) and has a pair of runners in the card-closing Race 11, Infinitum (7) and Warm Sun And Brew (1), plus Parnelli Jones (10) in Race 1 and Duke Silver (7) in Race 6.​

Peter Eurton trains at a 21% clip and saddles runners across six races, most notably Gas Me Up (4) in the Kilroe Mile and Deep Tracks (6) and King Of Dragons (9) in the non-stakes races. Westwood's scratch from the Big Cap was his decision to point toward a more suitable spot.​

Phil D'Amato sends out Padel Addict (5) in Race 7 and Almendares (2) in the Kilroe Mile. D'Amato is a turf specialist who wins at 24% with a 49% in-the-money rate, making any runner he enters on grass a legitimate contender.​

Brad Cox ships in Bless The Broken (5) for the Beholder Mile and Just A Touch (3) for the Big Cap. Cox does not typically target Santa Anita, but when he ships for stakes, he means business. Just A Touch (3) has fired two bullet drills in preparation.​

Dan Blacker saddles two runners in the San Felipe (Flashy Fritz and Start the Ride) and trains Kilroe Mile favorite El Potente (3). His runners are always game, and El Potente (3) has been a Santa Anita turf course specialist with six victories on the lawn here.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Late Pick 5 begins with Race 7 and runs through Race 11. This is the premier wagering opportunity of the day, as it encompasses the four graded stakes and the card-closing Cal-bred allowance. Here is a suggested approach to the Late Pick 5:

Race 7: Use Mo Sasha (1) as a single or spread to include High Society U (9) and Padel Addict (5) for ticket savings.

Race 8 (San Felipe): Use So Happy (6) as the main play with a saver ticket including Brant (4) and Secured Freedom (3).

Race 9 (Kilroe Mile): Spread widely here given the pace dynamics. Use Gas Me Up (4), Almendares (2), and El Potente (3), with a saver to Astronomer (8).

Race 10 (Big Cap): Just A Touch (3) is a near-single, but include British Isles (5) for protection.

Race 11: Use Infinitum (7) and Warm Sun And Brew (1) at minimum.

The All-Turf Pick 3 covers Races 5-7-9 at a player-friendly 15% takeout, which makes it one of the best value bets on the card. For this wager, key Jimmy Blue Jeans (6) in Race 5, spread Race 7 with Mo Sasha (1), High Society U (9), and one or two others, and spread Race 9 with Gas Me Up (4) and Almendares (2).

The best individual value play on the card is Nafisa (6) in the Beholder Mile at 8-1 morning line. She has won three straight and her tactical speed gives her a legitimate shot to upset the favorite. A $5 win bet and $2 exacta of Nafisa (6) over Splendora (4) offers a strong risk-reward profile.

The second-best value play is British Isles (5) at 6-1 in the Big Cap. With the two favorites scratched, this race is wide open, and British Isles (5) has the stamina for 1-1/4 miles that most of his rivals lack.​

In the San Felipe, the morning line has Brant (4) at even money, which is likely to be bet down further. So Happy (6) at 2-1 is the superior play given the pace scenario, but Secured Freedom (3) at 8-1 offers the best exotic value if the speed burns out.​

For the Kilroe Mile, the pace is the key. With four legitimate speed horses, the closers are positioned to capitalize. A Gas Me Up (4) with Almendares (2) exacta box, combined with a trifecta adding El Potente (3) in the third slot, is the core wager.​

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback