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Sunland Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 9, 2026 card

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Sunland Park offers a ten-race mixed card today focused on New Mexico-bred claiming and maiden events from 4.5 to 6.5 furlongs on dirt, with modest purses topping out in the maiden special weight races. The bulk of the card is lower-level claiming or maiden claiming, which typically makes pace and trip more decisive than raw talent, and rewards paying close attention to current form, trainer intent, and rider placement.

Recent results this meet show the main track playing fairly honest at sprint distances, with speed and tactical speed holding a slight edge, especially at 4.5 and 5 furlongs, while 6+ furlong races have allowed more stalk-and-pounce winners. Given the predominance of New Mexico-bred restricted races, many fields contain familiar rivals cycling through similar conditions, and slight changes in class, rider, or post can meaningfully change outcomes.

The card offers several logical favorites but also some vulnerable types dropping in class off layoff lines or coming off vet/Stewards scratches, creating potential value in exotics. With several trainers working multiple runners in the same race and leading local riders spread across contenders, today sets up as a good multi-race wagering day if you lean into connections and race shape.

Weather and Track Conditions

Extended and monthly forecasts for Sunland Park indicate typical early-March desert conditions: dry, low humidity, and warm afternoons, with high temperatures around the low 80s and lows around 50 on March 9. Skies are expected to be clear to partly cloudy with negligible precipitation chances, and winds generally light to moderate, conditions that favor a fast, consistent dirt surface.

Sunland's dirt typically dries quickly after any moisture, and with no significant rain indicated, the track should be listed as fast throughout the card. Under these circumstances, early speed and forward tactical position tend to be rewarded, particularly in the short sprints, while wide sweeping rallies are less common unless early fractions are extremely contested.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Historical results from recent Sunland cards show a mild preference toward inside-to-middle posts at 4.5 and 5 furlongs, with posts 1–5 winning a majority of races at those distances, largely because of the quick run to the turn. At 6 and 6.5 furlongs, the distribution is more balanced, though inside and mid-gates still tend to enjoy slightly better ground-saving trips when the rail is not visibly dull.

There is no strong evidence of a pronounced rail bias or outside bias over the last couple of weeks; instead, the key recurring pattern is that horses able to secure the front or a stalking position in the first flight are more likely to finish in the exacta. Given today's expected fast surface and dry weather, handicappers should treat the track as fair but lean toward horses with tactical speed and posts that allow them clean position into the first turn.

1st Race – Claiming, N3L, 5.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:25 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

This six-horse N3L New Mexico-bred claimer features several pace-forward types, and the small field should make tactics straightforward. The main early speeds are likely Our Valentino (2), Ghostly Chance (4), and Wrecking Storm (6), with Peekay (1) and George Who (5) capable of pressing just behind. Juana Rumble (3) looks more of a midpack grinder.

Given the configuration and field size, a contested but not suicidal pace is expected, favoring the horse who can sit just off the lead and pounce turning for home rather than a deep closer. Recent Sunland sprints have rewarded this stalking profile in similar class levels.

Key Contenders

Our Valentino (2) comes out of allowance company where he has faced significantly tougher fields, and he has been scratched previously for vet reasons when entered at this N3L level, suggesting connections have been looking for the right spot. He owns the right tactical speed, gets a strong local jockey in Luis Negron, and the drop to 15000 claiming for New Mexico-breds is a notable class relief angle that often produces winners in this condition.

Ghostly Chance (4) for trainer Greg Green fits well here as a lightly raced four-year-old with upside against older N3L types. He should be right on or just off the pace under Miguel Perez, and Green has been reliable with mid-level claimers sprinting at Sunland this meet.

George Who (5) is a veteran six-year-old with Joel Marr and Ken Tohill, a tandem that has done well in New Mexico-bred sprint claimers over multiple meets. His experience at the condition and ability to finish strongly late make him a key player if the top speeds knock each other out.

Secondary Choices

Peekay (1) from the rail with Enrique Gomez and Sherry Armstrong projects a ground-saving trip just behind the early leaders. He may lack a decisive turn of foot but can clunk up for a share if the inside is fair.​

Wrecking Storm (6) is a seven-year-old whose best days might be behind him, but the outside post allows him to stalk in the clear if he breaks well. Trainer Jaime Aldavaz Sr. is capable with older claimers, and this one can get a piece with a favorable pace scenario.​

Longshots

Juana Rumble (3) with Jose Torres and Ernesto Alcoverde appears the least likely winner based on the projected pace and class profile, but in a short field he should still be used on deep trifecta and superfecta tickets in case others underperform.

Betting Strategy

Win bets can key around Our Valentino (2) if the board offers fair value (e.g., anything above 2-1), with backup win saver on Ghostly Chance (4) if he drifts above his morning line. Exactas should emphasize 2,4,5 over 1,2,4,5,6, with smaller saver tickets using 3 underneath. Early daily doubles can lean on 2 and 4 as A-level singles into Race 2, with 5 as a B-type on backup tickets.

Selections

Win: Our Valentino (2)

Place: Ghostly Chance (4)

Show: George Who (5)

2nd Race – Claiming, N2L, 5.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:51 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This seven-horse N2L claimer has multiple forward types: Snow Boots (1), Taz Marking (2), Whiskey Rye (3), and Running Bear (6) all prefer to be involved early. I'mnotforeveryone (4) and Distorted Guy (5) can sit midpack, while Hank Hill (7) may stalk just off the main speed from the outside.

Expect a lively pace with at least three horses vying into the turn, making it hazardous to be engaged in a multi-horse duel. A tactical stalk-and-pounce type with outside positioning could capitalize.

Key Contenders

Running Bear (6) with Alfredo Juarez Jr. for Dick Cappellucci fits the preferred trip profile: enough speed to sit close but not dependent on the lead. Cappellucci's barn has been productive in lower-level sprints at the meet and often improves horses second and third off small layoffs.​

Hank Hill (7) from the outside with Aldo Arboleda for Luis Rojero should get a clean tracking trip, avoiding the crush inside. He figures to be in a good striking position turning for home, and outside posts at 5.5 furlongs can be advantageous when inside speed goes hard.​

Snow Boots (1) is drawn inside with Luis Ramon Rodriguez and Lonnie Vaughn, and projects as part of the pace, but his rail draw means he either has to send hard or risk getting shuffled. He is a key contender on class and figures but faces more trip risk than the outside stalkers.​

Secondary Choices

Whiskey Rye (3) for Ken Tohill and Terri Rust brings some back class and may be fitter now after recent outings, though his tendency to be part of the early fight may leave him vulnerable late. I'mnotforeveryone (4) for Greg Green could sit a perfect midpack trip if he breaks well and may be the beneficiary if the speed melts down.​

Distorted Guy (5) is an older seven-year-old who has had chances at this level but could slip into the trifecta at a price, especially if he stays in touch early.​

Longshots

Taz Marking (2) has a history of a Stewards scratch line recently, which raises some reliability questions, but he could show speed and hang on longer than expected if he returns sound and ready.​

Betting Strategy

Focus win bets on Running Bear (6) and Hank Hill (7), leaning toward whichever offers the better value. Exactas: 6,7 over 1,3,4,6,7, with a smaller saver 1 over 3,4,6,7. For early multi-race bets, you can use 6 and 7 as A-level horses, with 1 and 4 on backups.

Selections

Win: Running Bear (6)

Place: Hank Hill (7)

Show: Snow Boots (1)

3rd Race – Claiming, N2L, 6.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:17 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse N2L claimer stretches to 6.5 furlongs, where pace pressure can expose horses with limited stamina. Potential pace players include Crossrighthands (1), Corie's Boy (2), Tiger By The Tail (4), and perhaps Diablo Rosso (6), with Fifth Street (5) and Spend Again (8) sitting just off the leaders. Using Nitro (7) is a deep closer, while Copper State (3) may sit midpack.

The pace should be honest but may not be blazing, suggesting an advantage for tactical horses who can sit second or third and finish, rather than one-dimensional front-runners or stone closers.

Key Contenders

Fifth Street (5) for Justin Evans and Luis Valenzuela fits the ideal midpack stalker profile at this distance and class. Evans tends to spot horses aggressively but effectively, and Fifth Street's experience may give him the edge in a field where several rivals have been unreliable.​

Corie's Boy (2) for Greg Green and Miguel Perez should be part of the early vanguard but has shown he can rate a bit. If he clears or sits just off Crossrighthands (1) without heavy pressure, he can carry his speed a long way.​

Spend Again (8) has outside position, which can be beneficial at 6.5 furlongs, allowing Alfredo Sigala to keep him in the clear and move when ready. He's an older seven-year-old but fits at this level and can outfinish many if the leading group softens.​

Secondary Choices

Crossrighthands (1) for Sherry Armstrong could be a pace factor if he breaks sharply, but his inside draw may force his hand early and increase the risk of a pace duel. Copper State (3) with Luis Ramon Rodriguez may sit a good midpack trip but has shown limited finishing punch.​

Tiger By The Tail (4) and Diablo Rosso (6) are capable of hitting the frame on their best, although both come with question marks around consistency and recent Stewards scratch lines in Tiger by the Tail's case.​

Longshots

Using Nitro (7) is a nine-year-old deep closer who will need a collapse up front, which looks less likely given the field composition, but he can be included underneath in tris and supers if he runs back to some of his better efforts. Spend Again (8) will not be a huge price but might offer some value relative to the main two or three choices if bettors fixate on inside speed.

Betting Strategy

Key Fifth Street (5) on win bets if he is not overbet; Corie's Boy (2) and Spend Again (8) are good alternatives if the board skews heavily toward a single favorite. Exacta structure: 2,5,8 over 1,2,3,5,8, with 7 underneath on trifecta tickets for value. In multi-race horizontal bets, use 2,5,8 as A-level and 1,4 as backups.

Selections

Win: Fifth Street (5)

Place: Corie's Boy (2)

Show: Spend Again (8)

4th Race – Claiming, N3L, 4.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:43 PM.​

Pace Analysis

At 4.5 furlongs, the break is everything, and several in here are capable of sharp early speed: I'm A Dreamer Too (1), Hennessy Looker Rf (2), Nobody's Perfect (3), Ronchetti (4), Sapello Sicario (5), and Attila's Boy (7) all have sprint speed. Royal Lineage (6) and Bonnie Mae's Mark (8) may sit slightly off the pace.

Given the sprint distance and number of pacey runners, this could turn into a full-on scramble, making gate tactics, reaction times, and rider aggression the decisive factors. Inside posts with speed have a slight advantage if they break cleanly.​

Key Contenders

Nobody's Perfect (3) for Greg Green and Miguel Perez appears well-placed in this N3L spot, possessing enough gate speed and finishing ability to control or sit just off the pace. The trainer-jockey combo has been dangerous in short sprints at the meet.​

Ronchetti (4) with Jose Miguel Vazquez is another key player who can be forwardly placed from a comfortable mid-gate. If he breaks sharply and the rail pair do not, he could establish a winning position quickly.​

Hennessy Looker Rf (2) from the inside with Oscar Andrade Jr. and Tony Lello has back class and can break well, but he needs a clean trip along the rail, which is not guaranteed if multiple outside speed horses cross over. He still rates a strong chance with a good break.​

Secondary Choices

I'm A Dreamer Too (1) for Luis Negron and Jose Gonzalez can be an early factor and may get a rail-skimming trip if he breaks alertly. Royal Lineage (6) for the Amparan team could sit a stalking trip just off the pace and pick up the pieces late if the front line softens.

Attila's Boy (7) and Sapello Sicario (5) both have enough speed to get into the race early, but their outside draw relative to serious inside speed might force them to expend extra energy to clear or risk being hung wide.​

Longshots

Bonnie Mae's Mark (8) is a filly facing males here and comes off a prior scratch with “reason unavailable” noted, which introduces question marks about her condition and intent. However, she has enough speed to be in the mix early and could be a price play for minor awards if she runs to prior efforts.​

Betting Strategy

Focus win wagers on Nobody's Perfect (3) with saver win bets on Ronchetti (4) if the odds allow. Exactas can key 3,4 over 1,2,3,4,6,7, with a small inclusion of 8 underneath in trifectas for price. In horizontals, treat 3 as a strong single candidate if you want coverage elsewhere; 2 and 4 as backstops.

Selections

Win: Nobody's Perfect (3)

Place: Ronchetti (4)

Show: Hennessy Looker Rf (2)

5th Race – Maiden Special Weight, NM-bred, 6f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:09 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse maiden special weight for New Mexico-breds should feature several debut or lightly raced horses with uncertain tactics. On paper, likely pace players include D C Call Me George (1), Storm Cannon (2), Tap The Prize (3), and Onwithit (4), with I'm Just Playing (5) and Made American (6) potentially sitting just off. Shiny Shores (7), Gimme A Who (8), and American Century (9) can be midpack-to-closing types depending on how they break.

Given the class level and the likelihood of green efforts, pace could be lively early as inexperienced horses rush up. The winner is likely to be one who can sit slightly off the leaders, maintain a straight course, and finish.

Key Contenders

American Century (9) for Dick Cappellucci and Luis Negron looks like a prime contender based on connections and outside draw, which often gives maiden runners a cleaner trip. Cappellucci has solid stats with New Mexico-bred maidens, and Negron's aggressive but controlled riding suits this distance.​

Onwithit (4) for Joel Marr and Ken Tohill benefits from a strong local barn and rider combination that excels with patient trips in maiden sprints. From the middle gate, Tohill can see how the inside speed unfolds and position Onwithit accordingly.

Made American (6), trained by Martin Valdez-Cabral and ridden by Olaf Hernandez, has prior racing experience at the track in maiden special weight company, which can be a big advantage against first-timers or lightly raced rivals. If he has shown any improvement in recent efforts, he could be ready to break through.​

Secondary Choices

D C Call Me George (1) for Hermenegildo Aldavaz and Oscar Andrade Jr. has the rail draw and could be hustled away from there, but the rail can be tricky for inexperienced maidens if they hesitate at the break. Storm Cannon (2) with Luis Ramon Rodriguez and Juan Torres also figures to show speed and can hang on for a slice.

Tap The Prize (3) for Vilma De La Cruz and Larry Marquez and I'm Just Playing (5) for Simon Buechler and Francisco Amparan are both usable in exotics as mid-price options, especially if they are second- or third-time starters showing incremental improvement.​

Longshots

Shiny Shores (7) and Gimme A Who (8) are both Marr and Gallegos horses that could be under the radar depending on their prior form and works; prior scratch lines note Shiny Shores had a “reason unavailable” cancellation earlier in the meet. Either can spice up trifectas and superfectas at a price if they show more early speed today.​

Betting Strategy

Win focus on American Century (9) with backup plays on Onwithit (4) and Made American (6) depending on the toteboard. Exactas: 4,6,9 over 1,2,3,4,5,6,9. In horizontals, use 4,6,9 as primary coverage and 1,2,5 as backups; because of maiden volatility, consider spreading deeper if budget allows.

Selections

Win: American Century (9)

Place: Onwithit (4)

Show: Made American (6)

6th Race – Maiden Claiming, NM-bred 3yo, 4.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:36 PM.​

Pace Analysis

At 4.5 furlongs in a nine-horse maiden claiming field, expect a scramble for position, with multiple inexperienced horses vying early: Dashing American (1), Blues Money (2), Giuliano's Song (3), American Class (4), Mighty Money (5), Low Rollin (6), Nogal (7), Here I Go Again (8), and Perfect Ruler (9) all have potential to show speed. The claiming price is 12500, which often brings more aggressive front-running tactics.

Because nearly everyone may try to show early speed, this race could be won by the horse that breaks most cleanly and sustains sprint momentum, or by one who can sit just off the absolute fastest and make a decisive bid at the three-sixteenths pole.

Key Contenders

Perfect Ruler (9) for Todd Fincher with Guillermo Rodriguez stands out on class and connections, especially from the outside gate that can offer him a clear shot to press or stalk without traffic. Fincher is one of the more capable trainers in the region with New Mexico-bred maidens, and this runner is likely well-meant at this claiming level.

Dashing American (1) for Sherry Armstrong and Francisco Amparan draws the rail and must break sharply, but if he does, he can control the inside and force others to work harder from outside posts. Armstrong is a solid local conditioner with maiden claimers.​

Low Rollin (6) and Nogal (7), both trained by Greg Green and drawn side-by-side, create an interesting entry-like situation; Green may have one more forward and one more stalking, spreading his chances. With Aldo Arboleda on Low Rollin (6) and Miguel Perez on Nogal (7), both deserve serious consideration.​

Secondary Choices

Blues Money (2) for Dick Cappellucci and Kelsi Purcell gets a five-pound weight allowance as a filly, which can matter over this short trip, and may offer value if overlooked. Mighty Money (5) for Cappellucci and Alfredo Juarez Jr. also deserves respect; the barn taking two shots in the same race suggests they want to win it and will send both aggressively.

Here I Go Again (8) for Greg Green and Javier Ortega could be the barn's third bullet, perhaps aimed at stalking behind the early speed from a good outside gate. American Class (4) with Erick Medellin and Carlos Gonzalez is usable underneath as a mid-price.

Longshots

Giuliano's Song (3) for Bernadette Barrios and Luis Ramon Rodriguez may be outpaced early but can pick up pieces late if the race collapses. The overall structure of the field, however, suggests true deep closers will have limited opportunities.

Betting Strategy

Key Perfect Ruler (9) on win bets if the price is acceptable, with saver on Low Rollin (6) or Nogal (7) depending on the tote. Exactas: 6,7,9 over 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9, emphasizing combinations with 1 and 2 underneath. For horizontals, treat 9 as close to a single, with 1,2,6,7 as backups.

Selections

Win: Perfect Ruler (9)

Place: Low Rollin (6)

Show: Dashing American (1)

7th Race – Claiming, N2L F&M, 6.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:04 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse field of fillies and mares that have never won two races shapes up with several pace elements: Danjerus Cloud (1), Wild Steel (2), Girls Don't Cry (3), True Lovin (4), and Sapello City Girl (9) can show early foot, while Contessa's Song (5), Empress In Front (6), Hazonhi (7), and Leonas Girl (8) can sit midpack or just off. With a mix of front-runners and pressers, an honest, possibly contested pace is likely.

At 6.5 furlongs, the ability to relax and finish is more important than pure speed, so stalkers and midpack runners may have the edge if the early group overdoes it.

Key Contenders

True Lovin (4) for Greg Green and Luis Negron looks like the main contender, combining tactical speed with the ability to finish and benefiting from a strong rider-trainer combo. From post 4, Negron can place her in a perfect tracking position.​

Girls Don't Cry (3) for Martin Valdez-Cabral and Enrique Gomez may also sit a good stalking trip if she does not get caught up in a pace duel. Her profile suggests she can sustain a long run when properly rated.​

Hazhoni (7) for Johnny Singh and Oscar Andrade Jr. is an older mare with experience and may come running late if the early fractions are hot. From post 7, she should avoid the heaviest early traffic.​

Secondary Choices

Danjerus Cloud (1) for Sherry Armstrong and Ricardo Jaime has the rail draw and can show speed, but she must work out a trip to avoid pressure on both sides. Wild Steel (2) for Greg Green and Miguel Perez is another pace factor that may stick longer than expected.

Empress In Front (6) for Edwin Martinez and Luis Rodriguez can be in the mix for minor awards with a stalking trip, particularly if she sits just behind the first flight and angles out in the lane. Contessa's Song (5) for Valdez-Cabral and Alejandro Medellin is similar in profile and usable underneath.​

Longshots

Leonas Girl (8) for Danny Morales and Kelsi Purcell comes off a veterinarian scratch line in a prior start, making her form a bit murky, but she could offer longshot value in the trifecta if she returns sound and fit. Sapello City Girl (9) might also be long on the board but could be part of the early mix and hang on for a minor check.​

Betting Strategy

Win bets can center on True Lovin (4), with backup on Girls Don't Cry (3) if she offers a higher price. Exactas and trifectas should be spread due to the parity: 3,4,7 over 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9. In horizontals, use 3 and 4 as primary, with 1,2,7 as backups.

Selections

Win: True Lovin (4)

Place: Girls Don't Cry (3)

Show: Hazhoni (7)

8th Race – Claiming, NM-bred F&M N3L, 5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:31 PM.​

Pace Analysis

At 5 furlongs for New Mexico-bred fillies and mares that have never won three races, we can expect a sharp pace. La Bella Bella (1), Sis Spender (2), Pop's Party (3), I Get Stormed (4), Just Keep Laughin (6), and Annie Get Ur Guns (7) all have some speed. K P Blamengame (5) and American Cherub (8) may sit just off the leaders.

The short distance and inside posts tend to favor those who break sharply and secure position, but a horse able to sit second or third and pounce can take advantage if multiple rivals rush to the front.

Key Contenders

Sis Spender (2) for Todd Fincher and Tanner Fincher is a strong candidate, given the trainer's overall success with New Mexico-breds and good results at Sunland, plus the positive rider placement. From post 2, she can secure an inside stalking trip and strike turning for home.

Pop's Party (3) for Greg Green and Enrique Gomez figures to be right on or near the lead and has the class and barn to sustain that speed in this N3L condition. If she clears or sits a comfortable pressing trip, she is dangerous.​

American Cherub (8) for Martin Valdez-Cabral and Alfredo Juarez Jr. has an outside post that can be advantageous at 5 furlongs, allowing her to sit just off the speed and make a clear outside run.​

Secondary Choices

La Bella Bella (1) for Jose Gonzalez Jr. and Oscar Andrade Jr. has the rail and must break sharply; if she does, she can be a major factor. K P Blamengame (5) for Valdez-Cabral and Luis Negron is another midpack threat who can finish with a good trip.

Just Keep Laughin (6) for Edwin Martinez and Olaf Hernandez and Annie Get Ur Guns (7) for Arturo Chavez and Jose Torres are both capable of making the early lead, but they may face pace pressure both inside and outside.​

Longshots

I Get Stormed (4) for Victor Rodriguez-Flores and Erick Medellin is an older mare who could be overmatched on class but can sneak into the exotics if the race disintegrates late. American Cherub (8) may be overlooked on the board and provide some value, depending on how the public weighs her recent form.

Betting Strategy

Key win bets on Sis Spender (2) with saver win bets on Pop's Party (3) or American Cherub (8). Exactas: 2,3,8 over 1,2,3,5,6,8, with some emphasis on 1 and 5 underneath for better payouts. In horizontals, use 2 and 3 as the main coverage, with 1,5,8 as additional tickets.

Selections

Win: Sis Spender (2)

Place: Pop's Party (3)

Show: American Cherub (8)

9th Race – Starter Optional Claiming, 4.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:58 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is a large field starter optional claiming sprint at 4.5 furlongs, with 11 entries and a variety of running styles. Likely front-runners and pressers include Discreet Tiger (1), Leap Day (2), Red Leader (4), Teddy's Triumph (5), Diamond Rapper (6), Blazing To Gold (8), Bye Bye Matty P (9), and Tsunami Gold (11). Mister Mafioso (3), Sheza Hailstorm (7), and Follow The Facts (10) can sit midpack or close.

With so many pace types and such a short trip, break and early positioning are critical; it is quite possible that an outside speed horse clears and wires the field, but a midpack runner with a clean trip could pick up pieces if the inside battle gets too intense.

Key Contenders

Red Leader (4) for Alberto Amparan and Francisco Amparan has the right mix of class, speed, and connections for this spot and should be prominent early from the mid-gate. The Amparan barn generally spots horses effectively at Sunland, and Red Leader has the profile of a horse who can attend and finish.​

Mister Mafioso (3) for Sherry Armstrong and Christian Ramos is a key player; Ramos has been one of the leading riders at prior Sunland meets, with a strong win and in-the-money percentage. The horse has a prior Stewards scratch in a 5000 claimer, but if fit and ready today, his ability to stalk and pounce makes him a top contender.​

Blazing To Gold (8) for Jeffrey Trujillo and Aldo Arboleda draws well outside the main inside scramble and can sit a perfect tracking trip just off the leaders, making him dangerous late.​

Secondary Choices

Discreet Tiger (1) from the rail with Luis Negron and Emilio Cadena Jr. is forced to show speed or risk being shuffled, which can be an advantage if he breaks sharply but a risk if he does not. Leap Day (2) for Terrill Tsosie and Luis Ramon Rodriguez also fits the early pace profile and can factor prominently.

Teddy's Triumph (5) and Diamond Rapper (6) both bring speed and class to the table for James Crotts and Salvador Soto, respectively, though Diamond Rapper carries a prior Stewards scratch and is somewhat risky. Sheza Hailstorm (7) and Follow The Facts (10) are off-the-pace types who could get involved late if the race melts down.​

Longshots

Bye Bye Matty P (9) for Andres Gonzalez and Enrique Gomez and Tsunami Gold (11) for Edwin Martinez and Enrique Gomez may be overlooked due to age or inconsistent form but are drawn well to the outside, where they may avoid traffic and find late-running lanes. Both should be considered in deeper exotics.​

Betting Strategy

Spread is warranted in this race. For win bets, consider value plays on Mister Mafioso (3) and Blazing To Gold (8), with saver on Red Leader (4). Exactas and trifectas should be constructed around 3,4,8, with coverage including 1,2,5,7,10,11. In horizontals, this is a good leg to go wide, using 3,4,8 as A-level horses and multiple others as backups.

Selections

Win: Mister Mafioso (3)

Place: Red Leader (4)

Show: Blazing To Gold (8)

10th Race – Maiden Special Weight, NM-bred 3yo Fillies, 5.5f Dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:25 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This ten-horse maiden special weight for three-year-old New Mexico-bred fillies should see multiple fillies vying for early position: Bye Bye Vicki (1), Eighteyesondeborah (2), Songcat (3), Malibu Comfort (4), Wicked Whiskey (5), Wash Money (6), Pass The Test (7), Equity Search (8), Whitney Jayne (9), and Gypsy Wildcat (10) can all show some level of early speed. At 5.5 furlongs, the race should set up with a brisk early tempo and reward fillies who can stay in the first flight without losing composure.

The winners of similar races at this meet have often been first- or second-time starters with good works, sent from top barns, and allowed to stalk rather than engage in an all-out pace duel.

Key Contenders

Bye Bye Vicki (1) for Todd Fincher and Christian Ramos has an ideal connection setup, and though the rail can be tricky for young fillies, Fincher's reputation with New Mexico-bred maidens and Ramos's skill should help. She projects to be forwardly placed and can be strong if she handles the inside draw.

Equity Search (8), also for Fincher with Oscar Andrade Jr., is the stablemate and may offer a slightly more forgiving outside draw, making her a significant contender as well. The barn running two in here suggests they are serious about this race.​

Songcat (3) for Joel Marr and Ken Tohill is another major player, given Marr's skill with local stock and Tohill's patient ride style that suits this distance. From post 3, she can secure a ground-saving stalking trip.

Secondary Choices

Wash Money (6) for Dick Cappellucci and Luis Negron is a logical secondary contender from a strong barn with fillies, and the mid-gate draw gives her options to either press or stalk. Pass The Test (7) for Greg Green and Miguel Perez is also a solid midpack type with upside.

Wicked Whiskey (5) for Larry Chavez and Alfredo Sigala can be pacey and hang around for a share, while Malibu Comfort (4), Whitney Jayne (9), and Gypsy Wildcat (10) all have potential to improve with experience and could hit the frame if the main contenders misfire.​

Longshots

Eighteyesondeborah (2) for Joy Marlin and Tracy Hebert is more of a wildcard, potentially outrunning odds if she breaks sharply and sustains speed. This race is deep enough that longshots should not be completely dismissed in deeper exotics.

Betting Strategy

Win bets can be split between Bye Bye Vicki (1), Equity Search (8), and Songcat (3), with preference given to whichever offers the best value based on the toteboard. Exactas: 1,3,8 over 1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10. In horizontal sequences, use 1,3,8 as primary coverage, with 6 and 7 as backups to guard against upsets.

Selections

Win: Bye Bye Vicki (1)

Place: Equity Search (8)

Show: Songcat (3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Christian Ramos has been a leading rider at Sunland in recent seasons, with strong win percentages and high in-the-money rates, especially in sprint races and for barns like Armstrong, Fincher, and Marr. His mounts Mister Mafioso (3) in Race 9 and Bye Bye Vicki (1) in Race 10, along with other key placements, should be given extra consideration in multi-race wagers.​

Luis Negron has been a go-to rider for several strong barns on this card, including Evans, Green, Cappellucci, and Fincher, and his booking on Our Valentino (2) in Race 1, Running Bear (6) in Race 2, True Lovin (4) in Race 7, K P Blamengame (5) in Race 8, and Wash Money (6) in Race 10 indicates those horses are live. Ken Tohill remains a reliable veteran, particularly for the Marr barn, and his presence on George Who (5) in Race 1, Whiskey Rye (3) in Race 2, Onwithit (4) in Race 5, and Songcat (3) in Race 10 adds confidence.​

Miguel Perez and Enrique Gomez ride many of Greg Green's and other local barns' starters; they are aggressive gate riders who excel in sprints, which supports confidence in horses like Nobody's Perfect (3), Corie's Boy (2), True Lovin (4), Pop's Party (3), and others on today's card. Kelsi Purcell provides useful weight allowances and can be a value angle on horses like Using Nitro (7) and Leonas Girl (8).​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Todd Fincher is consistently among the leading trainers in New Mexico and at Sunland, especially with New Mexico-bred maidens and stakes horses, making his runners American Century (9) in Race 5, Sis Spender (2) in Race 8, and Bye Bye Vicki (1) and Equity Search (8) in Race 10 especially dangerous. He often places his horses where they can win, even at short prices, and his presence can significantly influence race shape and odds.

Greg Green is heavily represented on the card with multiple live runners in claiming and maiden events, and his horses typically show speed and consistency in sprints. Key Green runners include Nobody's Perfect (3) in Race 4, True Lovin (4) and Wild Steel (2) in Race 7, Pop's Party (3) in Race 8, and Pass The Test (7) in Race 10.​

Dick Cappellucci has several live sprinters and maiden claimers, including Running Bear (6) in Race 2, Blues Money (2) and Mighty Money (5) in Race 6, and Wash Money (6) in Race 10, and is known for sharp placement with lower-level claimers and New Mexico-bred maidens. Sherry Armstrong, Joel Marr, Martin Valdez-Cabral, and Alberto Amparan are all solid local operators with well-spotted horses on today's card, deserving respect when their runners are bet.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the card structure, there appear to be several potential single or lean legs for multi-race bets: Nobody's Perfect (3) in Race 4, Perfect Ruler (9) in Race 6, Sis Spender (2) in Race 8, and one of the Fincher fillies Bye Bye Vicki (1) or Equity Search (8) in Race 10 can serve as anchors in Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences depending on morning line and live odds. Alternatively, Mister Mafioso (3) in Race 9 and True Lovin (4) in Race 7 could be used as bold value-based singles if the toteboard suggests overlays.​

For intra-race exotics, races with larger fields and apparent pace meltdowns like Race 2, Race 7, Race 8, and Race 9 offer opportunities to play trifectas and superfectas with logical favorites on top and mid-priced closers underneath. Focusing on strong rider-trainer combinations at fair odds is a consistent angle: for example, Negron with Fincher or Cappellucci, Tohill with Marr, and Ramos with Armstrong or Fincher.

If a Pick 5 is available starting in Race 6, a structure might lean heavily on Perfect Ruler (9) in Race 6, spread in Race 7, use Sis Spender (2) and Pop's Party (3) in Race 8, spread widely in the chaotic Race 9, and close with Bye Bye Vicki (1), Equity Search (8), and Songcat (3) in Race 10. For value plays, look for overlays like Running Bear (6) in Race 2, Spend Again (8) in Race 3, American Cherub (8) in Race 8, and Songcat (3) in Race 10 if they drift above their likely fair odds.​

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