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We have a highly competitive nine race card scheduled today featuring a great mix of claiming events maiden special weights and some intriguing allowance optional claiming routes. The fields are healthy in size giving us plenty of opportunities to find hidden value at the betting windows. With a few notable scratches altering the landscape of several races handicappers will need to adjust their speed figures and pace projections accordingly to stay ahead of the curve. The feature race of the day is Race 5 an allowance optional claiming event with a purse of 38300 drawing a talented group of older horses looking to assert their dominance over the one mile distance.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Sunland Park in New Mexico today is absolutely beautiful for a winter day at the races. We are expecting bright sunny skies throughout the afternoon with a high temperature reaching a comfortable 67 degrees and a low dipping down to 40 degrees later tonight. The humidity remains very low at around 14 percent and there is a zero percent chance of rain during the daytime hours. Winds will be blowing steadily from the east at approximately 10 miles per hour providing a gentle crosswind down the backstretch.
Because of the dry and sunny conditions we can expect the one mile sandy loam dirt oval to be labeled as fast and firm from the first race to the last. Sunland Park is known for having a slightly tight 80 foot width and a 990 foot stretch run to the wire which can sometimes create traffic trouble for horses trying to rally from the back of the pack.
Regarding track bias at Sunland Park the way the surface plays often depends heavily on the distance of the race. In the shorter sprints such as the five furlong and five and a half furlong dashes early speed and the inside post positions tend to hold a distinct advantage. Horses that can break sharply from posts one through four usually save ground and secure position early making them very difficult to catch. However in the two turn route races at one mile the track frequently plays in a much more sustained and fair manner favoring stalkers and closers. When the early pace is hot in these route races off the pace runners often get a perfect setup to make a late sweeping run down the long lane. Handicappers should upgrade speed in the short sprints and look for tactical stalkers in the routes.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis A Valenzuela has an incredibly strong book of mounts today and continues to ride at a high percentage for the top trainers on the grounds. He partners frequently with the Justin Evans barn which is always a dangerous combination at this meet. Valenzuela is known for his excellent internal clock and his ability to save plenty of horse for the stretch drive.
Miguel Perez is another rider to watch closely this afternoon as he picks up several live mounts particularly in the claiming ranks. Perez rides with an aggressive style out of the gate which perfectly suits the speed favoring nature of the Sunland Park sprint races.
Alejandro Medellin is a savvy veteran rider who knows the quirks of the Sunland Park oval perfectly. He tends to excel on off the pace runners in the route races finding the right paths and timing his late moves with precision.
Francisco Amparan has a fantastic knack for getting the absolute most out of front runners. He should be highly respected when drawn inside on a horse that possesses natural early speed as he rarely surrenders a lead once he establishes control of the fractions.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Justin Evans brings an absolute battalion of talented runners to the track today and his horses are consistently well meant and ready to fire. His runners often show up in peak physical condition and are dangerous at any class level particularly in the claiming and allowance company races. Evans has a great feel for placing his horses where they can win and the betting public usually responds by making them heavy favorites.
Todd Fincher is another powerhouse trainer in this region and he has several exceptionally well bred New Mexico state runners entered in the maiden special weight events today. When Fincher brings a young horse to the track for their debut or second start they are typically cranked up and ready to deliver a maximum effort.
Dick Cappellucci is always a threat to take down a race on any given day. He is excellent at managing older claiming horses and finding spots where they hold a distinct class advantage over the field.
Martin Valdez Cabral also has a few sneaky and under the radar entries today that could offer some massive price potential in the exotic pools. His horses frequently outrun their morning line odds when stretching out in distance or dropping into softer company.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best overall approach today will be to lean heavily on early speed in the short sprint races while actively looking for value with tactical stalkers in the one mile events. The Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 5 looks very playable with a few vulnerable favorites that we can try to beat. Keying around the Justin Evans trainees in the middle of the card might provide the safest mathematical anchor for your horizontal wagers allowing you to spread out in the more difficult maiden races.
A strong value play comes in Race 6 where we can look for a mid pack closer to upset the field at a generous price. I highly recommend focusing your capital on exactas and trifectas in the maiden special weight races where the fields are full and the morning line odds are likely to fluctuate heavily before post time. Finding the live longshots in those big fields will be the key to turning a substantial profit on this Monday card.
Race 1
Post Time
12:25 PM
Pace Analysis
With both Wegonahavagoodtime and Laugh of the Party scratched the pace dynamics of this five furlong claiming dash have shifted significantly. Mickeys Gold and Leap Day should vie for the early lead right out of the starting gate. Leap Day has the tactical speed to establish position early from the outside draw while Mickeys Gold will have to be hustled aggressively from the inside to avoid getting crossed over. The fractions should be brisk but not completely exhausting.
Key Contenders
Leap Day looks like the primary threat in this field dropping into a claiming spot that suits his current form incredibly well. Handicappers note his consistent morning workouts leading up to this event suggesting he is holding his condition nicely. Mickeys Gold is a veteran eight year old campaigner who still possesses enough early foot to be dangerous in a short sprint of this distance and the rail draw ensures he will be involved from the start.
Secondary Choices
Doras Storm should sit a comfortable trip just off the early speed duel and wait for the front runners to begin tiring at the top of the stretch. If the pace gets entirely too hot up front he is the logical closer to pick up the pieces and hit the board. Mister Mafioso has been running evenly in his recent starts and can grab a minor share of the purse if he gets a clean trip without encountering traffic trouble.
Longshots
Wind River is stepping down in class today and could surprise the field if he manages to flash some of his old back class form. His recent races have admittedly been lackluster but the significant class relief might be exactly the catalyst he needs to wake up and run a competitive race at big odds.
Betting Strategy
I will be playing Leap Day aggressively on top of all single race exotics. An exacta box with Leap Day and Mickeys Gold seems like the most logical outcome but throwing Doras Storm into the bottom rungs of the trifecta is a smart defensive move.
Selections
Win: Leap Day (5) – 40% confidence
Place: Mickeys Gold (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Doras Storm (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Mister Mafioso (6) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
12:51 PM
Pace Analysis
In this six and a half furlong maiden special weight sprint Gangster and Thetribehasspoken are the most likely candidates to push the pace early. Conclave breaks from the rail and will need to show early intent to avoid getting shuffled back into the pack entering the main track. The pace should be honest giving everyone a fair chance to run their race.
Key Contenders
Thetribehasspoken gets a slight weight allowance carrying only 119 pounds and secures the services of top jockey Luis Valenzuela making him a formidable presence for trainer Justin Evans. Handicappers agree that he is perfectly poised for a breakthrough performance today. Conclave has shown excellent flashes of ability in the morning and the inside draw should allow him to save ground throughout the turn before making a bid.
Secondary Choices
Gangster should be right in the mix early on and has the physical stamina to hold on for a minor award even if the pace gets testing. Honor the Giants has been training steadily and could take a big step forward in this maiden special weight event providing some value underneath.
Longshots
Lion Throne is a lightly raced three year old facing older and more experienced horses today. However he has tremendous upside and could easily outrun his lofty morning line odds if he takes a natural developmental step forward.
Betting Strategy
Thetribehasspoken is a strong single in the early Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences. For intra race wagers keying him on top of Conclave and Gangster in straight exactas is the preferred route to maximizing value.
Selections
Win: Thetribehasspoken (4) – 45% confidence
Place: Conclave (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Gangster (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Honor the Giants (2) – 10% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
1:17 PM
Pace Analysis
Fifth Street will likely assume the role of the undisputed pacesetter in this six and a half furlong claiming event. Angels Shadows and What Do You Mean will be tasked with keeping the pressure on the leader throughout the opening half mile to ensure he does not steal the race on a slow pace.
Key Contenders
Fifth Street represents another exceptionally strong entry for the Justin Evans barn. His early speed should be highly effective at this distance and if left alone on the lead he will be very difficult to reel in. What Do You Mean has been knocking on the door in his recent starts and possesses the tactical versatility to stalk the pace and pounce late when the real running begins.
Secondary Choices
Stackers is an absolute grinder who always seems to find his way into the exotics regardless of the pace scenario. He will be doing his best running late. Handmedown dOro has decent back class and can factor heavily into the outcome if he gets a clean outside trip from jockey Kevin Carmona.
Longshots
American Ballad is the youngest horse in the field and while he faces a tough task against seasoned older horses his recent speed figures suggest he is improving rapidly. If the older horses falter he has the raw talent to surprise them.
Betting Strategy
I will be looking to beat Fifth Street if he gets over bet as What Do You Mean offers much better value as a stalker who can capitalize on a contested pace. A win bet on What Do You Mean and a small exacta box with Fifth Street is the recommended play.
Selections
Win: What Do You Mean (5) – 35% confidence
Place: Fifth Street (3) – 35% confidence
Show: Stackers (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Handmedown dOro (6) – 15% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
1:43 PM
Pace Analysis
This starter optional claiming race features plenty of early speed signed on. Good Lovin and Touch Of Glam are fully expected to knock heads early and set a blistering tempo. Coastal Fog will look to sit a perfect stalking trip right behind the dueling leaders waiting for the exact right moment to strike.
Key Contenders
Good Lovin is dropping slightly in class today and has a highly favorable setup if he can clear the field early without expending too much energy. Touch Of Glam is a tenacious Argentine bred runner who will not give up the lead without a massive fight. The early battle between these two top contenders will likely decide the overall outcome of the race.
Secondary Choices
Coastal Fog should benefit the most if the pace becomes an absolute meltdown. He has a strong closing kick that plays incredibly well over this specific track configuration. Blocked has been relatively consistent in this class level and can definitely hit the board at a decent mutual price.
Longshots
Axton has been struggling to find the winners circle recently but his absolute best effort would put him right in the mix here. He requires a perfect trip but is entirely capable of outperforming his morning line expectations if the leaders stop completely.
Betting Strategy
The pace scenario screams for a closer to come over the top. Coastal Fog is the prime beneficiary of the expected speed duel. I will be playing Coastal Fog across the board and keying him in trifectas over the speed horses who should hold on for the minor awards.
Selections
Win: Coastal Fog (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Good Lovin (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Touch Of Glam (3) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Blocked (2) – 10% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
2:09 PM
Pace Analysis
Stretching out to a full mile entirely changes the complexion of the race. Count Dracula and Listentothemusic should smoothly dictate the early tempo. With Bearings scratched the pace might be slightly more manageable allowing the front runners to conserve their energy for the long stretch drive home.
Key Contenders
Count Dracula looks perfectly spotted here by trainer Justin Evans. He has the proven stamina for the one mile distance and the necessary tactical speed to stay out of traffic trouble. Listentothemusic is the talented stablemate and will be right there with him offering a formidable one two punch for the barn that handicappers cannot ignore.
Secondary Choices
What a Dude is a seasoned seven year old veteran who knows exactly how to navigate this two turn configuration. He will be doing his best running late and always gives a sincere effort. Holcombe has been freshened up nicely and could run a massive race off the layoff.
Longshots
Bender is an eight year old gelding who has admittedly seen better days but he still possesses a potent late kick. If the pace completely collapses against all expectations he could come flying late to blow up the tote board.
Betting Strategy
Count Dracula is the class of the field and the most likely winner on the entire card today. He is a free space in the Pick 5. I will heavily emphasize cold exactas with Count Dracula over Listentothemusic and What a Dude.
Selections
Win: Count Dracula (2) – 45% confidence
Place: Listentothemusic (4) – 30% confidence
Show: What a Dude (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Holcombe (5) – 10% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
2:37 PM
Pace Analysis
This one mile claiming event reserved for registered New Mexico breds looks fairly devoid of any confirmed front runners. Sapello Sicario might find himself on the easy lead by default simply by breaking cleanly. Maximum Bull and Lime Chilton will try to stay within striking distance to keep the leader honest.
Key Contenders
Sapello Sicario has been facing significantly tougher company in his recent outings and the class drop today should immediately awaken him. If he gets an easy uncontested lead he might be physically impossible to catch. Desert Punk is a highly reliable closer who will greatly benefit from the long stretch run providing he does not fall too far behind early.
Secondary Choices
Grifter has been somewhat inconsistent but his best speed figure fits perfectly in this competitive spot. The Last Feat brings plenty of racing experience to the table and can absolutely grind out a minor share of the purse money.
Longshots
Nobodys Perfect has not shown much flash recently but the stretch out to a mile might be exactly what he needs to find his stride. He is worth a long look in the exotic pools at what should be very generous odds.
Betting Strategy
This is a race where spreading is highly advised in horizontal wagers as it looks wide open on paper. For a win bet Sapello Sicario taking the field wire to wire offers the most logical scenario. I will play him to win and box him in exactas with Desert Punk.
Selections
Win: Sapello Sicario (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Desert Punk (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Grifter (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: The Last Feat (4) – 10% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
3:04 PM
Pace Analysis
A five furlong dash means they will be absolutely flying right from the starting gates. Royal Lineage and Wrecking Storm both possess blazing early speed. With Western Grit scratched the inside runners might have an easier time securing their preferred position without being squeezed.
Key Contenders
Royal Lineage looks like the clear controlling speed from the inside post. If he breaks cleanly he could easily lead this group wire to wire. Malibu Sangria is drawn very well to track the hot pace and has the finishing kick required to run down the leader if he begins to falter late.
Secondary Choices
Lovesunfair has wonderful tactical speed and can carve out a good trip sitting just behind the first flight of runners. Juana Rumble is dropping in class today and breaking from the rail gives him a massive ground saving advantage around the lone turn.
Longshots
My Addiction has been completely out of form but the cutback to a pure five furlong sprint might sharpen him up nicely. He is a deep closer who needs a total pace meltdown but could pick up the pieces late for a massive price.
Betting Strategy
Royal Lineage holds a massive pace advantage and should be very tough to catch. Playing him to win and using him as a single in the late Pick 3 is a solid approach. Exactas should feature Malibu Sangria and Lovesunfair underneath.
Selections
Win: Royal Lineage (2) – 45% confidence
Place: Malibu Sangria (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Lovesunfair (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Juana Rumble (1) – 10% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
3:32 PM
Pace Analysis
With both Champagne Lane and Compelling Uncle scratched from this event the pace scenario simplifies dramatically. Beers On Me will look to assert total dominance early from the rail draw. Forty Seven will apply outside pressure to make sure the fractions remain honest.
Key Contenders
Beers On Me gets the favorable rail position and a slight weight break making him a very appealing option for the Evans stable. Forty Seven is another Evans trainee who looks incredibly sharp coming into this allowance race and the stable entry creates a powerful dynamic.
Secondary Choices
West of Me comes from the highly respected Todd Fincher barn and commands immediate respect on class alone. He has been working extremely well and should get a lovely stalking trip today. Ilean Right is a remarkably consistent performer who rarely ever runs a bad race.
Longshots
Rookie Numbers is facing a severe class test today jumping up from the maiden ranks but his recent victory was impressive enough to suggest he truly belongs with these runners.
Betting Strategy
The uncoupled entry of Beers On Me and Forty Seven looks dominant. Boxing them in an exacta is the safest play while tossing West of Me into the trifecta ensures you cover the Fincher factor.
Selections
Win: Beers On Me (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Forty Seven (6) – 30% confidence
Show: West of Me (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Ilean Right (4) – 10% confidence
Race 9
Post Time
4:00 PM
Pace Analysis
In this five and a half furlong maiden special weight for New Mexico breds predicting the exact pace is tricky with so many lightly raced young horses. Perfect Ruler and Mark My Kiss both feature pedigrees that strongly suggest natural early speed. The break will dictate everything here.
Key Contenders
Perfect Ruler represents the Todd Fincher barn and Luis Valenzuela takes the mount which is a massive positive indicator. Handicappers are buzzing about this runner and he looks completely ready to graduate at first asking. Mighty Money is bred for pure speed and has the morning workout times to back it up.
Secondary Choices
Comfort Cash should be prominent early on and has the huge benefit of actual racing experience over some of the first time starters. Ghosted Again is another Fincher trainee who demands heavy attention based on his connections alone.
Longshots
Nightly Peace has an extreme outside draw which might actually keep him out of early traffic trouble. If he can secure a clean wide trip he could hit the board at a very big price.
Betting Strategy
First time starters from the Todd Fincher barn are notoriously live. Perfect Ruler is the key horse to close out the card. A win bet on Perfect Ruler and a trifecta keying him over Mighty Money and Comfort Cash is the best way to end the day with a profit.
Selections
Win: Perfect Ruler (5) – 35% confidence
Place: Mighty Money (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Ghosted Again (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Comfort Cash (3) – 20% confidence
