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Welcome to a Monday afternoon card at Sunland Park that features solid racing action, headlined by two black-type stakes events: the $80,000 Jamison Memorial Stakes for New Mexico-bred sprinters and the $65,000 Winsham Lad Stakes for older routers.
The card is anchored by dominant local connections. Trainers Justin Evans and Todd Fincher have entered multiple formidable runners across the program, and their entries often dictate the pace and betting market. We have a standard 10-race card with a mix of claiming, maiden claiming, and allowance contests supporting the two stakes features.
The Jamison Memorial (Race 8) features a clash between the up-and-coming four-year-old Mojica and the seasoned veteran Antonios Mark, both offspring of the prolific sire Marking. Later in the card, the Winsham Lad Stakes (Race 9) brings together a deep field of older horses including Grade 3 winner Cornishman and local stakes winner Ze’bul.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: The weather for Sunland Park today is expected to be cloudy with a high near 69°F and a low of 41°F. Humidity is low at around 32%, and winds are light from the southeast at 5 mph. There is a negligible chance of precipitation during race hours (10%).
Track Surface: With no significant rain in the immediate forecast and cloud cover preserving some moisture, expect a Fast dirt track. Sunland’s surface can tighten up under these conditions, potentially favoring speed, but it should be fair overall.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Dirt Sprint (5F – 6.5F): Sunland Park typically favors early speed in sprints. The run to the turn in 5 1/2 and 6-furlong races is short, making the inside post positions (1-4) advantageous for horses that can break alertly. Horses stuck in wide posts (8-12) often lose significant ground on the turn unless they have the speed to clear the field immediately. Look for rail runners with “E” (Early) or “E/P” (Early/Presser) run styles to outperform their odds.
Dirt Route (1 Mile): The one-mile configuration at Sunland features a short run to the first turn. Inside posts are critical here to save ground. Horses starting from posts 8 or wider are at a severe disadvantage unless they possess superior tactical speed to cross over before the turn. The track profile often plays kind to horses who can secure a forward position, sit second or third along the rail, and make a move on the far turn. Deep closers often struggle to make up ground if the pace is moderate, which is common in these smaller fields.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time: 12:25 PM MST Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Claiming $10,000 (N2L/N4L)
Pace Analysis
This race features a mix of veteran claimers. Sweet River Baines (6) has shown flashes of early foot in the past and may try to clear from the middle. Panuco (2) has tactical speed and breaking from the inside should allow him to sit a comfortable trip just off the leaders. Discreet Mob (8) can also show speed but draws wider. Expect a moderate pace, giving the pressers the first jump.
Key Contenders
Panuco (2) enters this race for the powerful Justin Evans barn. While his recent form shows some mid-pack finishes, the class relief here is significant. Drawing post 2 allows Luis Valenzuela to save ground and make a decisive move on the turn. He fits the “non-winners of two since August” condition perfectly and looks like the class of the field.
Sweet River Baines (6) is a seasoned 12-year-old veteran who knows where the finish line is. Trainer Dick Cappellucci is excellent at keeping these older horses competitive. If he breaks sharp, he could control the race on the front end, and his back class makes him dangerous at this level.
Secondary Choices
Targaryis (4), another Evans trainee, pairs with Alfredo Juarez Jr. He has been inconsistent but has speed figures that fit well with this group. If the pace heats up between Panuco and Sweet River Baines, Targaryis could be the one picking up the pieces.
Longshots
Mississippi Man (3) comes in for trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral. He has some stalking ability and could hit the board at a price if the top two falter.
Betting Strategy
The Evans entry of Panuco looks solid. A Win bet on Panuco is the primary play. Exacta box 2-6 protects against the veteran holding on.
Selections
Win: Panuco (2) – 35% confidence Place: Sweet River Baines (6) – 25% confidence Show: Targaryis (4) – 20% confidence Alternative: Mississippi Man (3) – 10% confidence
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time: 12:51 PM MST Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Maiden Claiming $10,000 (NM Bred)
Pace Analysis
Maiden claiming races at this level are often chaotic. Ringo (4) has shown speed in previous outings and should be forwardly placed. Twist ‘n Sport (9) chased well in his last start and has the speed to overcome the outside draw, but will need to hustle. Stormwire (5) adds blinkers or equipment changes frequently in this class; watch the tote board.
Key Contenders
Ringo (4) is the most consistent runner in the field, having hit the board in three of his last four starts. Trainer Sherry Armstrong has him spotting well here, and he looks overdue for a graduation. He doesn’t need the lead but can sit close, which is the winning trip in this group.
Twist ‘n Sport (9) ran a promising second in his last effort. The outside post is a slight hindrance at 6 furlongs, but Tracy Hebert is a veteran rider who knows how to navigate Sunland. If he clears the field early, he is the main danger to the top pick.
Secondary Choices
Regal’s Arch (1) draws the rail. In a field devoid of monster speed, the inside draw is a massive advantage. If he breaks, he could find himself on the lead by default and hold on for a share.
Betting Strategy
Ringo is a standout single in multi-race wagers. For vertical wagers, key him over Twist ‘n Sport and Regal’s Arch.
Selections
Win: Ringo (4) – 40% confidence Place: Twist ‘n Sport (9) – 30% confidence Show: Regal’s Arch (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Stormwire (5) – 10% confidence
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time: 01:17 PM MST Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000
Pace Analysis
Positivity (1) has speed and the rail. In 6.5 furlong sprints, the rail horse often dictates the race. Ruggs (5) also possesses early gas. This could turn into a match race on the front end, potentially setting it up for a stalker like Grey Storm (2).
Key Contenders
Positivity (1) represents the Evans/Rodriguez combo. He has been facing tougher company and should appreciate this spot. The rail draw forces the jockey’s hand to send, which is exactly where you want to be on this track.
Grey Storm (2) is a consistent check-earner. He likely won’t be on the lead but will get the first run at Positivity if the latter tires. Alfredo Juarez Jr. stays aboard, which is a positive sign.
Secondary Choices
Zia Zapper (8) is the outside threat for Joel Marr. He may lose ground on the turn but will be running late. The extra half-furlong (6.5F vs 6F) helps his closing kick.
Betting Strategy
A Win bet on Positivity is the play. If the odds are short, look for an Exacta 1-2.
Selections
Win: Positivity (1) – 35% confidence Place: Grey Storm (2) – 25% confidence Show: Zia Zapper (8) – 20% confidence Alternative: Ruggs (5) – 15% confidence
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time: 01:43 PM MST Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Claiming $7,500
Pace Analysis
This is a bottom-level claimer. Warriors Mark (3) and I’magambler (4) are both entered by Justin Evans, giving him a strong hand. Jeeps Stride (1) has the rail and speed. Expect a contested pace which might make the race fall apart late.
Key Contenders
Warriors Mark (3) looks like the “A” entrant for Evans. He has the class to beat this field and draws well. Luis Valenzuela is riding in great form.
I’magambler (4) provides a solid backup for the stable. If Warriors Mark falters, this one will likely be the beneficiary.
Secondary Choices
Royal Laughter (6) is a price play. Trainer Anthony Blea III can pop with a longshot, and this horse has back numbers that fit if he wakes up.
Betting Strategy
The Evans entry looks dominant. Use Warriors Mark as a key.
Selections
Win: Warriors Mark (3) – 30% confidence Place: I’magambler (4) – 25% confidence Show: Jeeps Stride (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Royal Laughter (6) – 10% confidence
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time: 02:09 PM MST Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Class: Claiming $12,500 (NM Bred)
Pace Analysis
At 5 1/2 furlongs, it’s all about the break. Peekay (1) has the rail and speed. Taz Marking (3) is also quick. Stackers (11) is stuck in the parking lot and will need a miracle trip.
Key Contenders
Peekay (1) is the speed of the speed from the rail. In short sprints at Sunland, this is the winning profile. Enrique Gomez just needs to send him.
Taz Marking (3) is the logical danger. He has shown ability to sit just off the pace and pounce.
Secondary Choices
Lime Chilton (9) adds value underneath. He can close into a hot pace, which is likely here.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Peekay. The rail at 5.5F is too good to ignore.
Selections
Win: Peekay (1) – 35% confidence Place: Taz Marking (3) – 25% confidence Show: Lime Chilton (9) – 15% confidence Alternative: Snow Boots (4) – 10% confidence
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time: 02:37 PM MST Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Allowance (NM Bred Fillies/Mares)
Pace Analysis
Mama Was a Rocket (6) lives up to her name and should be sending from the gate. Quite Lovely (1) also has rail speed. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Mama Was a Rocket (6) for Todd Fincher is the horse to beat. Fincher excels with NM-breds, and this mare has the speed figures to dominate this group.
Quite Lovely (1) is the main threat. If she holds the rail and forces Mama Was a Rocket wide, she could steal it.
Secondary Choices
Trust Anabelle (2) will be stalking the top two. If they engage in a suicide duel, she picks up the pieces.
Betting Strategy
Exacta box 6-1. Mama Was a Rocket is the likely winner, but Quite Lovely is dangerous from the rail.
Selections
Win: Mama Was a Rocket (6) – 40% confidence Place: Quite Lovely (1) – 30% confidence Show: Trust Anabelle (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Our Time to Shine (4) – 10% confidence
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time: 03:04 PM MST Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Allowance Optional Claiming $25,000
Pace Analysis
Fun Money (1) and Buzzworthy (8) bookend the field. Fun Money has the rail advantage. Vegas Love (2) will likely press the pace.
Key Contenders
Fun Money (1) is another Justin Evans trainee with a prime draw. She should be able to control the pace or sit the pocket trip.
Vegas Love (2) has been facing decent company and fits well here class-wise.
Secondary Choices
Divine Wind (9) is the stablemate to Fun Money. The outside post is tough, but she has late kick.
Betting Strategy
Key Fun Money. The rail profile at this distance is strong.
Selections
Win: Fun Money (1) – 35% confidence Place: Vegas Love (2) – 25% confidence Show: Divine Wind (9) – 15% confidence Alternative: Buzzworthy (8) – 15% confidence
Race 8 Analysis: The Jamison Memorial Stakes
Post Time: 03:32 PM MST Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Stakes (NM Bred)
Pace Analysis
Mojica (3) is a legitimate speed horse who has won three straight. Antonios Mark (1) also possesses high cruising speed. Look for Mojica to try to establish dominance early, while Antonios Mark tracks from the inside.
Key Contenders
Mojica (3) is the 8-5 Morning Line favorite for good reason. Trained by Filiberto Quiroz, this 4-year-old son of Marking has been a revelation, winning the NM Classic Derby and the Red Hedeman Mile. He is versatile, winning at both sprints and routes, and his recent form is impeccable. He is the clear horse to beat.
Antonios Mark (1) is the class of the older division. A 9-time winner with over $500k in earnings, he draws the rail which suits his style perfectly. He won the New Mexico Cup Classic in November. He gives up youth to Mojica but has the back class to pull the upset if the favorite regresses.
Secondary Choices
Marking Canyon (4) is the “other” Marking in the field. He has won three of his last four and is in career-best form for Leroy Fincher. He will likely be stalking the top two.
Longshots
Holy Hank (7) was reinstated as the winner of a recent stakes after a DQ reversal. He is improving and could hit the board at a price (6-1 ML).
Betting Strategy
This is a two-horse race on paper. An Exacta Box 3-1 is the safe play. For value, try a straight Exacta 3-1, banking on the younger horse’s current form.
Selections
Win: Mojica (3) – 45% confidence Place: Antonios Mark (1) – 35% confidence Show: Marking Canyon (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Holy Hank (7) – 5% confidence
Race 9 Analysis: The Winsham Lad Stakes
Post Time: 04:00 PM MST Distance: 1 Mile Class: Stakes
Pace Analysis
Ze’bul (8) has tactical speed and comes off a win at Remington Park. Holiday Pay (4) often shows speed and will likely try to clear from the middle. Cornishman (2) has the tactical ability to sit close. The pace should be moderate, favoring those near the front.
Key Contenders
Cornishman (2) is the class of the field. A Grade 3 winner (Cornhusker H.) last year, he ships in for Dan McFarlane. He finished 3rd in the Zia Park Championship and has been working bullets at Turf Paradise. At 3-1 ML, he offers tremendous value for a horse of this caliber dropping into a local stakes.
Ze’bul (8) is the main local hope. He finished second in the Zia Park Championship and won the Jeffrey Hawk Memorial. He loves this track and distance.
Secondary Choices
Bearings (9) beat tough company in Albuquerque and is a consistent grinder. He will be running late.
Mine That Star (7) is a past winner of the Sunland Park Stakes and a half-brother to Mine That Bird. He is 9 years old now but still has heart.
Betting Strategy
Cornishman is a standout bet at 3-1 or better. His class advantage is significant. Win bet on #2. Exacta 2 over 8, 9.
Selections
Win: Cornishman (2) – 40% confidence Place: Ze’bul (8) – 30% confidence Show: Bearings (9) – 15% confidence Alternative: Mine That Star (7) – 10% confidence
Race 10 Analysis
Post Time: 04:20 PM MST Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Class: Claiming $7,500 (Fillies/Mares)
Pace Analysis
Discreet Pleasure (1) draws the rail in the nightcap and should send. Runaway Goddess (9) has outside speed.
Key Contenders
Discreet Pleasure (1) drops in class and gets the rail. This is a classic “wake up” spot.
Your Money (2) draws alongside and should get a good tracking trip.
Secondary Choices
Jolie Candy (11) has a tough post but trainer Sherry Armstrong places her horses well.
Betting Strategy
Keep it simple in the last race. Win on the rail horse dropping down.
Selections
Win: Discreet Pleasure (1) – 30% confidence Place: Your Money (2) – 25% confidence Show: Jolie Candy (11) – 15% confidence Alternative: Runaway Goddess (9) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Justin Evans & His Riders: Trainer Justin Evans is using a rotation of Luis Valenzuela, Alfredo Juarez Jr., and Luis Negron today. When Evans puts Valenzuela on a speed horse (like Panuco in Race 1 or Warriors Mark in Race 4), it is usually a “go” signal.
Alfredo Juarez Jr. (“El Rey”): Juarez is a master of Sunland Park. He is particularly dangerous on rail runners (like Positivity in Race 3). Watch him on Antonios Mark in the Jamison; he knows that horse better than anyone.
Tracy Hebert: The veteran Hebert is riding well for connections like Gary Cross. He is excellent at saving ground on longshots.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Fincher: Fincher has a strong hand in the stakes and maiden races. In Race 6, Mama Was a Rocket looks like a typical Fincher “lock” in a NM-bred allowance. His horses are usually ready to fire off the bench.
Dan McFarlane: Shipping in Cornishman for the Winsham Lad is a major signal. McFarlane wouldn’t ship a G3 winner here unless he was sitting on a big effort.
Dick Cappellucci: Watch his entries in the claiming races (Sweet River Baines in R1). He excels with old-timers and often gets them to outrun their odds.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day: Race 9: Cornishman (2). A Grade 3 winner facing local stakes company is a significant class edge. At 3-1 morning line, he is the value play of the card.
Best Speed Play: Race 8: Mojica (3). His current form is unassailable, and his speed figures are consistently higher than his rivals.
Value Longshot: Race 1: Sweet River Baines (6). If the Evans entry (Panuco) gets stuck in traffic, this old pro could steal it at a price.
Pick 5 Ticket (Races 6-10): Leg 1 (R6): 6, 1 Leg 2 (R7): 1, 2 Leg 3 (R8): 3, 1 Leg 4 (R9): 2 (Single) Leg 5 (R10): 1, 2, 11 Cost for $0.50 ticket: $12.00
