Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Sunland Park resumes live racing on Monday, January 26, after canceling the previous day due to inclement weather conditions. The nine-race thoroughbred card features a mix of New Mexico-bred restricted conditions, maiden races, claiming events, and allowance contests. Post time for the first race is 12:25 PM Mountain Time, with a competitive afternoon of racing scheduled through 4:00 PM.
The current Sunland Park meet has showcased dominant performances from trainer Dick Cappellucci, who recently reached the 1,000-win career milestone and maintains a scorching 27 percent strike rate with 17 wins from 62 starters. Jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr leads all riders with an exceptional 29 percent win rate from 99 mounts, while Christian Ramos paces the jockey colony with 29 victories through the meet’s opening weeks.
Track conditions are expected to be listed as fast, typical for late January racing at the New Mexico facility. The one-mile oval demonstrates a moderate early-speed bias in sprint races between 4.5 and 6.5 furlongs, with posts three through eight generally providing optimal positioning. The compact configuration rewards horses with tactical speed who can establish position before the first turn without expending excessive early energy.
Several notable scratches impact today’s card. Race Five loses Sapello Sweetee to a trainer scratch, while Race Six features four veterinarian scratches including Delbert Too, Drinkroundthetruth, Ghostly Chance, and Leave Them Behind. Race Seven scratches Major Contender, and Race Nine loses Lewis Bere to the stewards. These withdrawals reshape betting strategies and pace scenarios across the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current forecast models indicate clear skies with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s at first post to the low 50s by mid-afternoon. Wind conditions are expected to remain calm, typically out of the west at 8-10 miles per hour. These conditions mirror the fast, dry track surfaces that have characterized the meet thus far, with no moisture anticipated to impact the racing strip.
The dirt track at Sunland Park maintains excellent drainage and typically provides consistent footing throughout the racing day. Track maintenance crews employ a regimen that produces a speed-favoring surface, particularly advantageous for horses breaking alertly and securing forward positions through the opening quarter-mile. Closing types face steeper challenges in sprint races but retain competitive opportunities in route contests extending beyond seven furlongs.
Historical data compiled over multiple racing seasons confirms Sunland Park demonstrates pronounced early-speed bias in sprint distances. The track’s compact turns and relatively short run-ups to the first bend create scenarios where pace-pressing types dictate race flow and establish controlling positions. Horses demonstrating explosive gate speed consistently outperform late-running types at distances between five and six and one-half furlongs. Route races provide more tactical flexibility, allowing closers sufficient distance to mount sustained rallies when pace dynamics unfold favorably.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Post position statistics reveal significant advantages for middle-to-outside draws at Sunland Park. Historical performance data indicates posts three through eight produce optimal strike rates across most distance configurations. These gates provide jockeys tactical flexibility to avoid early congestion along the rail while maintaining striking distance through the opening furlongs.
The rail post presents considerable challenges when horses break slowly or lack natural early speed. Traffic congestion frequently develops along the inside path during the opening quarter-mile, forcing jockeys to check stride or alter course to secure running room. Horses trapped behind contested early fractions often struggle to find seams without surrendering ground or racing wide around the first turn.
Conversely, extreme outside posts in full fields force runners to cover additional ground when navigating the tight first turn. Horses drawn to the far outside frequently race wide through the bend, surrendering lengths while expending energy without cover from pace pressure. Jockeys on speed-compromised runners from outside gates must make aggressive early moves or resign themselves to covering significant extra distance throughout the race.
At sprint distances of five to six furlongs, the positional advantage shifts decisively toward horses with natural early speed who can establish position before reaching the turn. The abbreviated distance creates premium on gate speed, as horses trailing significantly after the opening quarter face nearly insurmountable deficits. Route races extending beyond seven furlongs diminish positional bias, as closers enjoy sufficient real estate to mount sustained rallies, though securing favorable trips remains paramount.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight – New Mexico Bred
Post Time: 12:25 PM
This New Mexico-bred maiden special weight contest at 5.5 furlongs assembles seven three-year-olds seeking breakthrough victories. The $30,700 purse represents standard conditions for state-bred maiden events, with weight assigned at 121 pounds across the field. Several first-time starters enter this assignment, creating uncertainty in pace projections and form analysis.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Mighty Money as the 5-2 favorite despite making his career debut for trainer Dick Cappellucci and jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr. First-time starters from the Cappellucci barn merit serious respect given his exceptional 27 percent win rate at the current meet and recent career milestone of 1,000 training victories. The assignment of Juarez, currently leading all riders with a 29 percent strike rate, adds confidence to Mighty Money’s credentials despite lack of racing experience.
D C Call Me George brings actual racing experience to this assignment, having finished third in stronger maiden special weight company last time at odds of 10-1. That effort demonstrated competitive ability against superior opposition, suggesting the class relief encountered today positions him advantageously. The Conquest Mo Money gelding trained by Hermenegildo Aldavaz with Oscar Andrade Jr riding represents legitimate threat to the favorite.
Pass the Test has demonstrated consistency with two place finishes in previous efforts, establishing a foundation of experience that could prove valuable against several first-time starters. The daughter of Delhomme trained by Greg Green with Miguel Perez riding brings tactical speed patterns effective at this distance. Green’s moderate 14 percent win rate at the current meet suggests selective placement, indicating confidence in this filly’s readiness.
The abbreviated 5.5-furlong distance amplifies Sunland’s early-speed bias, demanding horses break alertly and secure position through the opening quarter before the field enters the lone turn. Multiple horses demonstrate early-speed inclinations based on breeding patterns and workout tabs, creating potential for honest opening fractions. Closers face steep challenges overcoming deficits exceeding two lengths at the quarter-pole given the abbreviated distance.
Key Contenders
Mighty Money commands favoritism despite never racing previously, reflecting the powerful Cappellucci-Juarez combination currently dominating the Sunland Park meet. Cappellucci’s exceptional form includes multiple stakes victories and a hot hand throughout the early portion of the meet. His 27 percent win rate significantly exceeds typical trainer averages, establishing him among the leading conditioners at the venue.
Juarez’s assignment provides additional confidence given his exceptional 29 percent strike rate from 99 mounts at the current meet. The veteran rider excels at breaking horses alertly from the gate before establishing forward position without excessive early energy expenditure. His aggressive yet controlled riding style proves particularly effective at Sunland Park’s compact configuration, where early positioning determines success in sprint contests.
D C Call Me George emerges as the primary threat at morning line odds of 3-1 for trainer Hermenegildo Aldavaz and jockey Oscar Andrade Jr. The three-year-old gelding exits a creditable third-place finish in stronger maiden special weight company, demonstrating competitive ability against superior opposition. That form line suggests class relief encountered today positions him advantageously, particularly given Andrade’s recent success with multiple stakes victories including Boot Scoots in the Red or Green Stakes.
Secondary Choices
Comfort Cash represents trainer Simon Buechler at morning line odds of 9-2 with Alejandro Medellin riding. The three-year-old gelding by Comfort draws the four post, providing tactical flexibility in the seven-horse field. Medellin compiles respectable statistics at Sunland Park with solid in-the-money percentages, establishing him among regular riders capable of delivering winning efforts when given live mounts.
Made American and Wareisthelute represent trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral with jockeys Luis Valenzuela and Christian Ramos respectively. Valdez-Cabral operates a competitive stable with 11 wins from 78 starts at the current meet for a 14 percent strike rate. The dual representation suggests confidence in both runners, though handicappers should verify physical appearance in the paddock before committing significant wagering dollars.
Selections
Win: Mighty Money
Place: D C Call Me George
Show: Pass the Test
Race 2: Maiden Claiming – Fillies
Post Time: 12:51 PM
The second race presents a maiden claiming event at 5.5 furlongs for three-year-old fillies with a claiming price of $8,000 (New Mexico-bred claiming price $10,000). The $10,400 purse attracts seven fillies seeking initial victories while vulnerable to claim. Weight assigned at 121 pounds across the field creates parity among the competitors.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Michiga as the potential favorite based on recent racing form and connections. Multiple fillies demonstrate early-speed inclinations based on breeding patterns, creating potential for honest opening fractions through the opening quarter-mile. The abbreviated 5.5-furlong distance demands explosive gate speed, as fillies trailing significantly after the opening eighth face nearly insurmountable deficits.
The compact distance represents Sunland’s shortest sprint assignment for thoroughbreds, demanding fillies demonstrate explosive acceleration from the starting gate. At this abbreviated configuration, races essentially become decided through the opening quarter-mile, with closing types demonstrating minimal opportunity to overcome early positional disadvantages. Trainers entering fillies in this assignment typically seek tactical speed patterns effective from the opening strides.
Key Contenders
Michiga draws the seven post for trainer Casey Lambert with Luis Negron riding. The three-year-old filly benefits from the Lambert-Negron combination, with Lambert operating a competitive stable maintaining a 22 percent win rate from 41 starts at the current meet. The outside post in the seven-horse field provides tactical options while avoiding potential inside congestion, though the filly must break alertly to secure position before the first turn.
Haddonfield represents Lambert’s second entry in the race, drawing the six post with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding. The dual representation from the Lambert barn suggests confidence in both fillies, creating potential for strategic riding tactics. Juarez’s exceptional 29 percent win rate provides significant upgrade in pilot, establishing Haddonfield as legitimate contender despite morning line odds suggesting longer price.
Secondary Choices
Velvet Billet breaks from the rail post for trainer Bradley Bolen with Alfredo Sigala riding. The inside draw creates challenges at Sunland Park’s configuration, particularly for fillies lacking natural early speed. The rail post typically requires patient jockeyship and horses capable of rating comfortably while finding seams through traffic.
Mischiefinthe Nile draws post two for trainer Edwin Martinez with Luis Ramon Rodriguez riding. The three-year-old filly brings connections familiar with Sunland Park’s racing environment, though morning line odds suggest handicappers view her as moderate threat to the top choices.
Selections
Win: Michiga
Place: Haddonfield
Show: Velvet Billet
Race 3: Claiming – Three-Year-Olds and Up
Post Time: 1:17 PM
This claiming event at six furlongs for three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races carries a $11,200 purse with claiming price of $6,250 (New Mexico-bred claiming price $10,000). The seven-horse field features seasoned claiming horses competing at moderate class levels, several demonstrating extensive racing experience at Sunland Park and sister track Zia Park.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Truckin as the 2-1 favorite followed by John John at 5-2, with multiple horses demonstrating competitive credentials based on recent form. The six-furlong distance provides sufficient real estate for pace dynamics to develop naturally, though early-speed types retain advantages given Sunland Park’s configuration and track bias.
Truckin for trainer Sherry Armstrong with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding brings solid recent form including a third-place finish at course and distance last time. Armstrong maintains exceptional form at the current meet with 26 percent win rate from 54 starters, establishing her among leading trainers at the venue. The assignment of Juarez provides significant confidence given his leading rider status and exceptional chemistry with Armstrong-trained runners.
John John exits a good second-place finish and drops in trip for trainer Dick Cappellucci with Luis Negron riding. The Cappellucci-Negron combination produces exceptional results throughout the meet, with Cappellucci’s 27 percent strike rate leading all trainers. The five-year-old gelding demonstrates tactical speed patterns effective at six furlongs, suggesting ability to rate within striking distance before mounting stretch acceleration.
Vols represents trainer Daniel Hernandez with Alejandro Medellin riding at morning line odds of 5-1. The five-year-old gelding finished second last time and receives support from expert handicappers as value selection at the price. The seven post provides tactical flexibility, though Medellin must break alertly to avoid racing wide around the first turn.
Key Contenders
Truckin enters with legitimate winning credentials based on recent form and connections. Armstrong’s exceptional meet statistics combined with Juarez’s leading rider status create powerful combination. The six-year-old gelding by a sire known for producing durable claiming horses demonstrates tactical speed patterns effective at Sunland Park’s configuration. The four post provides ideal positioning to secure stalking trip within two lengths of early leaders.
John John presents clear threat based on Cappellucci’s dominant form and class relief from stronger recent assignments. The five-year-old gelding demonstrates ability to rate comfortably in mid-pack before accelerating through the stretch. Negron’s tactical awareness positions him to exploit favorable race dynamics, particularly if early fractions become contested. The six post creates manageable positioning challenges with patient jockeyship.
Secondary Choices
Vols draws expert handicapper support as value selection at 5-1 morning line odds. The five-year-old gelding finished runner-up last time, demonstrating current form that positions him competitively against today’s field. Hernandez trains this gelding with confidence after recent encouraging effort, suggesting readiness for additional improvement. The seven post requires alert break to avoid covering extra ground, though tactical speed patterns should permit securing reasonable position.
Lovesunfair breaks from the rail post for trainer Daniel Hernandez with Oscar Andrade Jr riding at 4-1 morning line odds. The inside draw creates both opportunities and challenges, requiring the five-year-old gelding to break alertly and secure clear running room through the opening quarter. Andrade brings recent stakes success to the assignment, adding confidence despite morning line odds suggesting moderate support.
Selections
Win: Truckin
Place: John John
Show: Vols
Race 4: Maiden Claiming – New Mexico Bred Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 1:43 PM
This New Mexico-bred maiden claiming event at 6.5 furlongs for fillies and mares three years old and upward carries a $12,900 purse with claiming price of $8,000. The eight-horse field features several fillies demonstrating consistent form in previous maiden efforts, creating competitive race with multiple legitimate winning chances.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Friday Nite Fancy as the 2-1 favorite with Attila Style at 5-2 and My Kentucky Chrome at 9-2, creating tight betting line across the top three choices. Multiple fillies demonstrate early-speed inclinations, suggesting honest opening fractions through the initial quarter-mile before pace development unfolds naturally through the 6.5-furlong distance.
Friday Nite Fancy has shown consistent form in previous maiden efforts for trainer Dick Cappellucci with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding. Cappellucci’s exceptional 27 percent win rate and recent hot hand establish confidence in this filly’s readiness to break through. The two post provides inside positioning advantages for a filly demonstrating tactical speed patterns, allowing Juarez to secure stalking position within two lengths of early leaders without racing wide.
My Kentucky Chrome finished close second last time for trainer Casey Lambert with Luis Negron riding. Lambert maintains solid 22 percent win rate at the current meet, demonstrating effective placement of runners in appropriate conditions. The near-miss last time suggests this filly possesses the ability to break through, particularly with class relief to maiden claiming conditions from maiden special weight company.
Attila Style emerges as the second choice at 5-2 morning line odds for trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral with Christian Ramos riding. The five-year-old mare brings extensive racing experience to this assignment, though the winless record raises questions about ability to break through against competitive field. Ramos currently leads all jockeys with 29 wins at the meet, providing confidence despite the mare’s checkered form.
Key Contenders
Friday Nite Fancy commands favoritism based on the dominant Cappellucci-Juarez combination and consistent recent form. The five-year-old mare has demonstrated competitive ability in previous maiden efforts without finding the winning combination. Cappellucci’s exceptional training skills and Juarez’s tactical awareness create confidence that connections have identified the proper spot for breakthrough victory. The two post provides ideal positioning to secure stalking trip without excessive early energy expenditure.
My Kentucky Chrome presents clear threat based on near-miss last time and powerful Lambert-Negron combination. The three-year-old filly by Kentucky Wildcat exits close second-place finish, demonstrating current form positioning her as legitimate winning threat. Lambert’s 22 percent strike rate suggests selective placement, indicating confidence in this filly’s readiness. The one post creates potential traffic concerns, though Negron’s tactical awareness should permit securing reasonable trip.
Secondary Choices
Attila Style draws support as second choice despite lengthy winless streak extending through multiple previous efforts. The five-year-old mare for Valdez-Cabral with Ramos riding brings experience advantage over several rivals making early career starts. The six post provides tactical flexibility, and Ramos’s leading rider status adds confidence. However, handicappers should verify physical appearance and recent workout patterns before committing significant wagering dollars given inconsistent past performances.
Tormenta G G represents trainer Hermenegildo Aldavaz at 6-1 morning line odds with Oscar Andrade Jr riding. The four-year-old filly draws the seven post in the eight-horse field, requiring alert break to avoid covering extra ground around the first turn. Andrade’s recent stakes success provides confidence, though morning line odds suggest handicappers view this filly as moderate threat to top choices.
Selections
Win: Friday Nite Fancy
Place: My Kentucky Chrome
Show: Attila Style
Race 5: Claiming – Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 2:09 PM
This claiming event at 6.5 furlongs for fillies and mares four years old and upward which have never won two races carries a $11,800 purse with claiming price of $5,000 (New Mexico-bred claiming price $7,500). The field originally numbered eight but loses Sapello Sweetee to trainer scratch, creating seven-horse field with revised pace scenarios.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Wild Steel as the 3-1 favorite with Jasmine Baby at 7-2 and Sophisticat at 9-2, creating competitive betting line across the top three choices. The scratch of Sapello Sweetee removes one forward-running type, potentially diminishing early pace pressure and creating advantage for fillies and mares demonstrating tactical speed to secure controlling positions.
Wild Steel for trainer Greg Green with Miguel Perez riding exits runner-up finish last time, demonstrating current form positioning her competitively. Green maintains moderate 14 percent win rate at current meet, suggesting selective placement of runners in appropriate conditions. The four-year-old filly demonstrates mid-pack running style, positioning her to capitalize if early fractions become contested.
Jasmine Baby brings strong credentials based on close second at course and distance last time for trainer Jose Gonzalez with Jose Miguel Vazquez riding. The eight-year-old mare by Monterey Jazz demonstrates tactical speed patterns effective at 6.5 furlongs, suggesting ability to secure forward position within two lengths of early leaders. Vazquez compiles solid statistics at Sunland Park, establishing him among regular riders capable of delivering winning efforts.
Sophisticat exits maiden victory for trainer Casey Lambert with Luis Negron riding at 9-2 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly by Kentucky Wildcat steps up from maiden claiming conditions to straight claiming company, representing class elevation that creates uncertainty regarding competitive level. Lambert’s 22 percent strike rate provides confidence, and Negron’s exceptional riding skills should permit securing favorable trip.
Key Contenders
Jasmine Baby emerges as logical selection based on recent form and proven ability at course and distance. The eight-year-old mare finished close second in similar conditions last time, demonstrating she possesses the speed and tactical awareness to compete successfully at this level. Vazquez brings solid riding skills and familiarity with Sunland Park’s configuration, positioning him to exploit favorable race dynamics. The two post provides inside positioning advantages without creating significant traffic concerns.
Wild Steel presents legitimate threat based on recent runner-up finish and tactical running style. The four-year-old filly for Green with Perez riding demonstrates ability to rate in mid-pack before mounting stretch acceleration. The five post provides ideal positioning to secure clean trip without racing wide, and Perez’s tactical awareness should permit exploiting favorable pace scenarios. Morning line favoritism suggests public confidence in this filly’s credentials.
Secondary Choices
Sophisticat brings momentum of recent maiden victory but faces class elevation that creates uncertainty. The four-year-old filly for Lambert with Negron riding defeated maiden claiming rivals convincingly, though today’s straight claiming opponents represent competitive upgrade. The four post provides tactical flexibility, and the Lambert-Negron combination produces consistent results. Handicappers should assess how significantly the class elevation impacts this filly’s chances.
True Lovin represents trainer Greg Green’s second entry with Francisco Amparan riding at 5-1 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly demonstrates mid-pack running style similar to stablemate Wild Steel, creating potential for strategic riding tactics. Amparan compiles solid statistics with 17 percent win rate at current meet, establishing him among regular riders producing consistent results. The seven post requires alert break to avoid covering extra ground.
Selections
Win: Jasmine Baby
Place: Wild Steel
Show: Sophisticat
Race 6: Allowance – New Mexico Bred
Post Time: 2:37 PM
This New Mexico-bred allowance at six furlongs for three-year-olds and upward originally assembled eight horses but loses four to veterinarian scratches, creating compact four-horse field with dramatically altered pace scenarios and betting implications. The $47,300 purse represents significant conditions for state-bred restricted company, with weight assigned at 121 pounds for three-year-olds and 124 pounds for older horses.
Pace Analysis
The four veterinarian scratches including Delbert Too, Drinkroundthetruth, Ghostly Chance, and Leave Them Behind fundamentally reshape this race’s competitive landscape. Morning line odds establish I Think I’m Here as the 2-1 favorite with Dave’s Enchantment at 5-2, though the reduced field size creates different betting dynamics and exotic wager strategies.
With only four horses remaining, pace development becomes critically important. I Think I’m Here for trainer Lillian Silva with Alfredo Sigala riding brings consistent form and tactical speed patterns effective at six furlongs. The seven-year-old gelding demonstrates ability to secure forward position within striking distance of early leaders before mounting stretch acceleration.
Dave’s Enchantment represents trainer Alberto Amparan with Francisco Amparan riding at 5-2 morning line odds. The six-year-old gelding exits third-place finish in stakes company, representing class relief that positions him advantageously against today’s allowance field. Amparan maintains solid connections with multiple wins at the current meet, establishing confidence in this gelding’s competitive level.
Key Contenders
Dave’s Enchantment emerges as logical selection despite I Think I’m Here’s favoritism. The six-year-old gelding by Attila’s Storm exits stakes company where he finished competitive third against superior opposition. That form line suggests clear class advantage over today’s allowance field, particularly with four scratches removing several legitimate threats. Amparan’s familiarity with Sunland Park’s configuration positions him to exploit favorable pace dynamics in reduced field.
I Think I’m Here presents legitimate threat based on consistent form and tactical running style. The seven-year-old gelding for Silva with Sigala riding demonstrates ability to compete successfully in New Mexico-bred allowance company. Recent efforts show competitive ability, though the class relief enjoyed by Dave’s Enchantment creates disadvantage in head-to-head matchup. The four post in reduced field provides clean trip opportunities.
Secondary Choices
Attilianno represents trainer Justin Evans with Christian Ramos riding at 6-1 morning line odds. The nine-year-old gelding brings extensive racing experience but faces younger, fresher rivals demonstrating superior recent form. Ramos leads all jockeys with 29 wins at current meet, providing confidence despite morning line odds suggesting moderate public support. The one post provides inside positioning advantages in reduced field.
Probate completes the four-horse field for trainer Alberto Amparan with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding at 15-1 morning line odds. The nine-year-old gelding represents the same barn as Dave’s Enchantment, creating potential for strategic riding tactics. Juarez’s exceptional 29 percent win rate adds confidence, though morning line odds and recent form suggest this gelding faces steep challenges against superior rivals.
Selections
Win: Dave’s Enchantment
Place: I Think I’m Here
Show: Attilianno
Race 7: Claiming – Four-Year-Olds and Up
Post Time: 3:04 PM
This claiming route at one mile for four-year-olds and upward which have not won two races since July 26, 2025, or which have not won a race since December 26, 2025, or which have never won four races carries a $12,600 purse with claiming price of $7,500. The field originally numbered nine but scratches Major Contender to veterinarian, creating eight-horse field with revised pace dynamics.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance represents Sunland Park’s standard route configuration, providing sufficient real estate for pace dynamics to develop naturally and late-running types to mount sustained rallies. Unlike sprint races where early-speed bias dominates, route contests create more balanced competitive scenarios where tactical awareness and trip development determine outcomes as significantly as raw speed.
Morning line odds suggest competitive betting line across multiple horses, with no overwhelming favorite dominating the wagering. Multiple horses demonstrate forward-running tendencies based on recent form and running styles, creating potential for honest opening fractions through the first half-mile. Horses able to rate comfortably within three lengths of the contested lead entering the far turn hold significant tactical advantage over deep closers forced to overcome deficits of four lengths or greater.
Key Contenders
Hello Hot Rod represents trainer Dick Cappellucci with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding, bringing the meet’s dominant trainer-jockey combination to this assignment. The eight-year-old gelding demonstrates tactical speed patterns effective at route distances, suggesting ability to secure forward position within striking distance of early leaders. Cappellucci’s 27 percent win rate and Juarez’s 29 percent strike rate create powerful combination, though morning line odds will determine value proposition.
Kirby Derby completes Cappellucci’s dual representation with Luis Negron riding. The seven-year-old gelding benefits from the same powerful barn currently dominating Sunland Park’s trainer standings. The dual entry creates potential for strategic riding tactics, with both jockeys possessing tactical awareness to exploit favorable race dynamics. Morning line odds will reveal which entry Cappellucci considers primary winning chance.
Secondary Choices
Vinniebob represents trainer Filiberto Quiroz with Enrique Portillo Gomez riding at 7-2 morning line projection. The seven-year-old gelding draws the two post in eight-horse field, providing inside positioning advantages for a horse demonstrating tactical speed. Gomez compiles moderate statistics at Sunland Park with 13 percent win rate, establishing him among regular riders producing consistent results.
Ham Sandwich breaks from the rail post for trainer Jeffrey Trujillo with Erick Medellin riding. The five-year-old gelding brings competitive recent form though faces established claiming horses demonstrating superior experience. The inside draw requires patient jockeyship to secure clean trip without becoming trapped along the rail through the opening half-mile.
Selections
Win: Hello Hot Rod
Place: Vinniebob
Show: Kirby Derby
Race 8: Allowance – Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 3:32 PM
This allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won two races carries a $28,800 purse representing standard conditions for allowance company. The ten-horse field creates full gate with competitive betting line across multiple legitimate contenders. Weight assigned at 121 pounds for three-year-olds and 123 pounds for older fillies and mares.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Tiz the Spirit as the 3-1 favorite with Native Charmer at 7-2 and Chandon at 4-1, creating competitive betting line across the top three choices. The abbreviated 5.5-furlong distance amplifies Sunland’s early-speed bias, demanding fillies and mares break alertly and secure position through the opening quarter before the field reaches the lone turn.
Multiple fillies and mares demonstrate early-speed inclinations based on breeding patterns and recent running styles, creating potential for honest opening fractions that could favor horses rating just off the lead or stalking within two lengths through the opening half-furlong. Deep closers face steep challenges overcoming deficits exceeding three lengths at the quarter-pole given the abbreviated distance and track configuration.
Tiz the Spirit for trainer Todd Fincher with Luis Valenzuela riding brings strong recent form including good second-place finish last time. Fincher maintains solid 18 percent win rate from 68 starts at current meet, demonstrating effective placement of runners in appropriate conditions. Valenzuela recently piloted Speed Merchant to stakes victory, establishing current momentum that adds confidence to this assignment.
Native Charmer represents trainer Justin Evans with Luis Negron riding at 7-2 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly steps down in class after competing in tougher company, representing relief that could prove decisive advantage. Evans operates competitive stable with strong statistics at Sunland Park, and Negron’s exceptional riding skills create confidence in securing favorable trip.
Key Contenders
Tiz the Spirit commands favoritism based on strong recent form and powerful Fincher-Valenzuela combination. The four-year-old filly by Tiz the Law exits good second-place finish, demonstrating current form positioning her as legitimate winning threat. Fincher’s training skills and Valenzuela’s recent stakes success create confidence that this filly will produce best effort. The ten post creates positioning challenges in full field, requiring alert break to avoid covering extra ground around first turn.
Native Charmer presents clear threat based on class relief and proven ability. The four-year-old filly for Evans with Negron riding steps down from tougher company where she competed respectably without securing victory. The seven post provides tactical flexibility to secure position without racing wide, and Negron’s exceptional tactical awareness should permit exploiting favorable pace dynamics.
Secondary Choices
Chandon represents trainer Bart Hone with Alfredo Juarez Jr riding at 4-1 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly has placed consistently in similar company, demonstrating competitive ability without finding winning combination. Hone maintains solid training record, and Juarez’s exceptional 29 percent win rate provides significant upgrade in pilot. The three post provides ideal positioning to secure stalking trip within two lengths of early leaders.
Power Connection completes trainer Todd Fincher’s dual representation with Olaf Hernandez riding at 6-1 morning line odds. The four-year-old filly benefits from the same powerful barn as Tiz the Spirit, creating potential for strategic riding tactics. The five post provides tactical flexibility, though Fincher’s primary winning chance likely resides with Tiz the Spirit based on recent form and jockey assignment.
Selections
Win: Tiz the Spirit
Place: Native Charmer
Show: Chandon
Race 9: Claiming – Three-Year-Olds and Up
Post Time: 4:00 PM
The finale presents a claiming event at 6.5 furlongs for three-year-olds and upward which have not won a race since July 26, 2025, or which have never won four races, carrying a $10,800 purse with claiming price of $5,000 (New Mexico-bred claiming price $8,000). The field originally numbered nine but scratches Lewis Bere to the stewards, creating eight-horse finale with revised pace scenarios.
Pace Analysis
Morning line odds establish Sexy Dexy as the 8-5 favorite dropping in class after competing in stronger company recently. The class relief represents significant advantage, particularly when combined with proven ability at Sunland Park’s configuration. Multiple horses demonstrate forward-running tendencies, creating potential for honest opening fractions through the initial quarter-mile.
Sexy Dexy for trainer Sherry Armstrong with Ricardo Jaime riding brings significant class advantage based on recent efforts in tougher company. The ten-year-old gelding demonstrates tactical speed patterns effective at 6.5 furlongs, suggesting ability to secure forward position within striking distance of early leaders. Armstrong maintains exceptional 26 percent win rate at current meet, establishing her among leading trainers at the venue.
We Need Marketing represents trainer Filiberto Quiroz with Luis Negron riding at 4-1 morning line odds. The six-year-old horse finished creditable third last time, demonstrating current form positioning him competitively. The three post provides tactical flexibility to secure position without racing wide, and Negron’s exceptional riding skills create confidence in securing favorable trip.
Key Contenders
Sexy Dexy emerges as logical selection based on class relief and proven ability. The ten-year-old gelding for Armstrong with Jaime riding drops significantly in claiming level after competing unsuccessfully in stronger company. That class relief combined with Armstrong’s exceptional training skills creates confidence that this gelding possesses clear advantage over today’s field. The nine post creates positioning challenges in eight-horse field, requiring alert break to avoid covering extra ground.
We Need Marketing presents legitimate threat based on recent form and powerful Quiroz-Negron combination. The six-year-old horse finished creditable third last time, demonstrating competitive ability at this claiming level. Quiroz trains this horse with confidence after recent encouraging effort, suggesting readiness for improvement. The three post provides ideal positioning to secure stalking trip without excessive early energy expenditure.
Secondary Choices
Daddy What If represents trainer Gary Cross with Olaf Hernandez riding at 9-2 morning line odds. Cross maintains solid training record at Sunland Park, and Hernandez brings tactical awareness to secure reasonable trip. The six post in eight-horse field provides tactical flexibility, though this ten-year-old gelding faces fresher rivals demonstrating superior recent form.
Coastal Fog completes the secondary choices for trainer Adam Archuleta with Jose Miguel Vazquez riding at 10-1 morning line odds. The six-year-old gelding brings competitive recent form though faces established claiming horses demonstrating superior class credentials. The two post provides inside positioning advantages, and Vazquez’s solid riding skills should permit securing clean trip.
Selections
Win: Sexy Dexy
Place: We Need Marketing
Show: Daddy What If
Jockey Notes and Insights
Alfredo Juarez Jr dominates the current Sunland Park meet with exceptional 29 percent win rate from 99 mounts, accumulating $684,549 in purse earnings. The veteran rider demonstrates tactical versatility effective across claiming and allowance divisions, with particular success navigating maiden races where inexperienced horses require confident handling. Juarez excels at breaking horses alertly from the gate before establishing forward position without excessive early energy expenditure, creating optimal scenarios for sustained stretch acceleration.
His aggressive yet controlled riding style proves particularly effective at Sunland Park’s compact configuration, where early positioning determines success in sprint contests. Juarez rides three mounts today including Mighty Money in the opener, Friday Nite Fancy in Race Four, and multiple assignments throughout the card. The quality of these assignments from competitive trainers suggests barn confidence in Juarez’s ability to deliver winning efforts.
Christian Ramos paces the jockey colony with 29 victories from 172 starts for 17 percent win rate, demonstrating consistency across the meet’s opening weeks. Ramos compiles solid in-the-money percentages that establish him among regular riders producing reliable results. His tactical awareness and patient jockeyship prove effective when rating horses in traffic before mounting stretch rallies.
Francisco Amparan operates with 17 percent win rate from 100 mounts, establishing him among regular riders capable of delivering winning efforts when given live assignments from quality connections. Amparan demonstrates particular effectiveness with horses requiring patient handling and tactical awareness to secure clean trips through traffic.
Luis Valenzuela brings momentum from recent stakes success piloting Speed Merchant to victory in the Corralito Steak House Stakes. The veteran rider demonstrates tactical awareness effective at route distances, positioning horses to exploit favorable race dynamics. Valenzuela excels at rating horses within striking distance before mounting sustained stretch acceleration.
Luis Negron maintains consistent presence throughout the meet, demonstrating tactical versatility across sprint and route distances. His patient jockeyship proves particularly effective when rating horses in mid-pack before mounting stretch rallies. Negron’s assignments from leading trainers including Dick Cappellucci and Casey Lambert reflect barn confidence in his riding abilities.
Enrique Portillo Gomez compiles moderate 13 percent win rate from 101 starts, establishing him among regular riders producing steady results. His tactical awareness proves effective when securing clean trips through traffic, particularly from middle post positions providing flexibility to avoid early congestion.
Oscar Andrade Jr brings momentum from recent stakes victories including Boot Scoots in the Red or Green Stakes. The rider demonstrates aggressive yet controlled style effective when piloting horses with tactical speed. Andrade excels at breaking horses alertly before establishing forward position, creating competitive advantages in sprint races where early positioning determines outcomes.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Dick Cappellucci dominates the current Sunland Park meet with exceptional 27 percent win rate from 62 starts, accumulating $402,696 in purse earnings. The veteran conditioner recently achieved the 1,000-win career milestone on January 4, establishing him among the most successful trainers operating at the venue. Cappellucci’s hot hand throughout the meet includes multiple stakes victories and consistent success across claiming and allowance divisions.
His stable demonstrates particular effectiveness with New Mexico-bred restricted horses, suggesting expertise developing regional bloodstock. Cappellucci excels at identifying proper placement for runners, evidenced by his exceptional strike rate across varied conditions and distances. Runners from his barn merit respect regardless of morning line odds, particularly when paired with leading riders including Alfredo Juarez Jr and Luis Negron.
Todd Fincher operates competitive stable with 18 percent win rate from 68 starts, accumulating significant purse earnings through strategic placement. Fincher demonstrates particular success in allowance and stakes company, training multiple stakes winners at the current meet including Speed Merchant and Coffee Connection. His patient approach to horse development creates confidence that runners enter races properly prepared for winning efforts.
Sherry Armstrong maintains exceptional 26 percent win rate from 54 starts, establishing her among leading trainers at the venue. Armstrong demonstrates effectiveness across claiming and allowance divisions, with particular success developing fillies and mares. Her stable shows consistent form throughout the meet, suggesting effective training regimen and strategic placement.
Casey Lambert operates with solid 22 percent win rate from 41 starts, demonstrating effective placement of runners in appropriate conditions. Lambert shows particular success with maiden and claiming horses, identifying proper spots for breakthrough victories. His stable maintains consistent form throughout the meet, and runners from his barn merit serious consideration when paired with leading riders.
Martin Valdez-Cabral maintains moderate 14 percent win rate from 78 starts, operating competitive stable with regular winners across claiming and allowance divisions. His patient approach to horse development creates confidence that runners enter races properly prepared, though handicappers should verify recent workout patterns and physical appearance before committing significant wagering dollars.
Greg Green compiles 14 percent win rate from 37 starts, demonstrating selective placement of runners in appropriate conditions. Green shows effectiveness with both maiden and claiming horses, identifying proper spots for competitive efforts. His stable maintains steady presence throughout the meet, and runners from his barn represent reasonable betting propositions when drawn favorably.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The compact four-horse field in Race Six fundamentally alters exotic wagering strategies for the afternoon. Traditional horizontal exotics including Pick Threes, Pick Fours, and Pick Fives become easier to construct but offer reduced payouts due to limited permutations. Handicappers should consider single-race vertical wagers in Race Six including exactas and trifectas, which provide reasonable return opportunities despite reduced field size.
Pick Four coverage spanning Races Five through Eight presents attractive wagering opportunity given competitive fields and value selections. Race Five features Jasmine Baby at reasonable odds, Race Six offers Dave’s Enchantment in reduced field, Race Seven provides multiple legitimate contenders, and Race Eight assembles full field with competitive betting line. Suggested ticket construction uses two horses in Race Five (Jasmine Baby, Wild Steel), single Dave’s Enchantment in Race Six, spreads three horses in Race Seven (Hello Hot Rod, Vinniebob, Kirby Derby), and includes three horses in Race Eight (Tiz the Spirit, Native Charmer, Chandon) for 18-dollar ticket.
Daily Double wagering between Races Eight and Nine offers value opportunities given competitive fields and reasonable odds across multiple contenders. Tiz the Spirit in Race Eight combined with Sexy Dexy in Race Nine creates logical two-dollar wager, while spreading wider using Native Charmer and Chandon with Sexy Dexy and We Need Marketing creates eight-dollar ticket with enhanced winning probability.
Exacta wagering in Race Three provides reasonable return opportunity given competitive field and value selections. Boxing Truckin and John John creates modest four-dollar wager with solid winning probability, while expanding to include Vols creates twelve-dollar ticket with enhanced coverage. The presence of expert handicapper support for Vols at 5-1 morning line odds suggests potential value if odds hold at post time.
Win betting value opportunities emerge throughout the afternoon where morning line odds suggest overlays relative to actual winning probability. Jasmine Baby in Race Five presents reasonable value proposition at 7-2 morning line odds given recent form and proven course-and-distance ability. Dave’s Enchantment in Race Six offers clear class advantage in reduced field, creating win betting opportunity if odds exceed 5-2 at post time.
Trifecta wagering in Race Eight provides attractive return opportunity given full ten-horse field and competitive betting line across multiple contenders. Key Tiz the Spirit on top with Native Charmer and Chandon for second, spreading five horses (Power Connection, Divine Wind, Catrianna, Ferrari Money, Brazilian Queen) for third creates twenty-dollar ticket with reasonable winning probability and potential for solid return given field size.
Race One presents challenging wagering scenario given multiple first-time starters creating uncertainty in pace projections and form analysis. The powerful Cappellucci-Juarez combination with Mighty Money merits respect despite lack of racing experience, though odds of 5-2 or less create limited value proposition. Exacta wagering boxing Mighty Money and D C Call Me George provides reasonable coverage while limiting downside exposure to four dollars.
The closing race features clear class advantage for Sexy Dexy dropping from stronger company, creating win betting opportunity at 8-5 morning line odds. Armstrong’s exceptional training skills combined with proven class advantage suggest this gelding possesses clear edge over today’s field. Exacta wagering using Sexy Dexy on top with We Need Marketing and Daddy What If creates modest four-dollar wager with solid winning probability.
Rolling Pick Threes beginning in Race Seven provide enhanced wagering flexibility compared to traditional Pick Three structures. Starting with Race Seven spreading three horses (Hello Hot Rod, Vinniebob, Kirby Derby), singling Tiz the Spirit in Race Eight, and including two horses in Race Nine (Sexy Dexy, We Need Marketing) creates six-dollar ticket with reasonable winning probability and potential for solid return if favorites prevail.
Place and show wagering merit consideration in races featuring overwhelming favorites where win odds provide limited value but horses demonstrate clear superiority over fields. Mighty Money in Race One and Friday Nite Fancy in Race Four represent candidates for place/show wagering if win odds compress below even money at post time, creating limited value proposition for straight win wagers but reasonable return opportunities through horizontal wagers.
Multi-race exotic wagering using keying strategies creates ticket cost efficiency while maintaining reasonable winning probability. Key strong opinions in specific races while spreading wider in competitive contests creates balanced approach between ticket cost and coverage breadth. Race Six’s reduced field creates natural single opportunity within Pick Three and Pick Four structures, allowing handicappers to spread wider in surrounding races while controlling overall ticket cost.
