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The Friday, December 12, 2025 card at Tampa Bay Downs features nine races, highlighted by a competitive turf allowance in the seventh and a juvenile turf maiden event in the finale. The sequence offers a mix of claiming sprints and route races on both dirt and turf. With the season in full swing, field sizes are healthy, providing excellent betting value.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Oldsmar calls for ideal racing weather. Expect sunny skies with a high near 73°F and a low of 54°F. There is zero precipitation in the forecast, so the main track will be fast, and the turf course should be firm. The rail on the turf is set at 30 feet, which often favors horses that can save ground before tipping out, though recent trends suggest otherwise.
Track Bias
Recent data from the current meet highlights specific trends bettors must respect. In dirt sprints, the track has been playing surprisingly kind to closers, who are winning at a 41% clip, suggesting the rail might be dead or the surface is tiring early speed. Conversely, in dirt routes, stalkers are the dominant force, winning 50% of races, with a strong bias toward middle posts (4-6), which are winning 57% of the time.
On the turf course, the dynamic shifts. Routes are favoring outside posts (7+), winning 57% of recent contests. This is counter-intuitive for a 30-foot rail setting but indicates the outside paths may be firmer or offer better footing. Closers are performing well on the grass, taking 43% of route races.
1st Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
In this 6-furlong maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies, the pace should be moderate. With inexperienced runners, the break is critical. Justamomentplease has shown gate speed in workouts and will likely vie for the lead with Noble Annie. The closing bias on the dirt sprint course suggests that a horse sitting just off the pace might have the advantage.
Key Contenders
Justamomentplease is the clear morning line favorite at even money. Trained by Kathleen O’Connell, this filly drops into a realistic spot and retains Sonny Leon. Her speed figures fit this field perfectly, and O’Connell excels with this class of maiden claimer. She looks like the one to beat if she breaks clean.
Secondary Choices
Marlas Dream offers significant appeal at better odds. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, she comes from the Greg Sacco barn, which is capable of popping with juveniles. She draws the outside post, allowing her to watch the break and make a move late, fitting the current track profile for closers in sprints.
Longshots
Rules for Three (10-1) gets the services of veteran Jose Ferrer. While her form is hidden, the trainer-jockey combination can be dangerous at a price. She could pick up the pieces if the top two falter.
Betting Strategy
The short price on Justamomentplease makes her a likely single in horizontal wagers, but Marlas Dream is a must-use in exactas for value.
Selections
Win: Justamomentplease
Place: Marlas Dream
Show: Rules for Three
2nd Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong allowance optional claimer features older fillies and mares. Twizzle and Deflection should push the early tempo. The 7-furlong distance at Tampa is demanding, often testing the stamina of pure sprinters. A stalker who can sit in the “garden spot” behind the leaders will have the best trip.
Key Contenders
Princess Britni (3-1) is a consistent runner for Kathleen O’Connell. She has the tactical speed to sit fourth or fifth and make a run on the turn. Jose Ferrer knows this track intimately and should navigate a ground-saving trip. Her class level is appropriate here, and she rarely runs a bad race.
Secondary Choices
My Cajun Lady is a dangerous threat. She has been facing tougher company and should appreciate the class relief. Ricardo Feliciano rides, and if the pace heats up up front, she will be the one closing fastest in the lane. She was a top selection by several handicappers coming into this week.
Longshots
Deflection (6-1) has speed but needs to clear the field early. If she gets loose on the lead without pressure, she could steal it, though the 7-furlong distance is a concern for her late energy.
Betting Strategy
Box the top three in an exacta. Princess Britni is the safest play, but My Cajun Lady offers better win value.
Selections
Win: Princess Britni
Place: My Cajun Lady
Show: Deflection
3rd Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
A 1-mile 40-yard route for beaten claimers. Speed is usually less effective in these lower-level routes. Speedy Hans and Political Riot will likely go to the front. The race sets up for a stalker or closer given the recent trend of early speed fading in routes.
Key Contenders
Whiting Field is a strong choice here. He fits the “stalker” profile that is winning 50% of dirt routes currently. Starting from post 9 might be tricky, but Marcos Meneses is an aggressive rider who will put him in the race. He drops in class and looks poised to score.
Secondary Choices
Speedy Hans (8-1) is the speed of the speed. If he can control the fractions of :24 and :48, he might take them all the way. However, he is an 8-year-old gelding and may be vulnerable in the final furlong.
Longshots
Street Glide (12-1) draws the rail. If he can save ground and wait for an opening, he has the late kick to surprise the field at a big price.
Betting Strategy
This is a chaotic race. Whiting Field is the most logical winner, but spread deep in Pick 3s. A small win bet on Speedy Hans if he drifts above 8-1 is a solid value play.
Selections
Win: Whiting Field
Place: Speedy Hans
Show: Street Glide
4th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong sprint for fillies and mares looks loaded with early speed. Lil Temptation and Heavens Express will likely hook up early. This scenario screams for a closer, which aligns perfectly with the current 41% win rate for closers in dirt sprints.
Key Contenders
Long Gone Sally (5-2) is the horse to beat. Samuel Marin rides for J. David Braddy. She has the versatility to rate just off the hot pace and pounce on the turn. Her recent form is sharp, and she finds a group that lacks her consistency.
Secondary Choices
Sadie Baby (6-1) fits the closer profile well. Drawing post 9 allows Ademar Santos to keep her in the clear and make one big run. At this level, a clean trip is often all that separates the winner.
Longshots
Bella Romance (10-1) is a 6-year-old mare who has seen better days but still possesses a decent late kick. If the pace completely collapses, she will be the one picking off tired horses at a massive price.
Betting Strategy
Key Long Gone Sally in the top spot of trifectas. Use Sadie Baby and Bella Romance underneath.
Selections
Win: Long Gone Sally
Place: Sadie Baby
Show: Bella Romance
5th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
The first turf race of the day is a 1 1/16-mile route. With the rail at 30 feet and a bias toward outside posts, looking for horses drawn wide is a smart angle. Noble Factor and Toro Forward should be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Noble Factor (5-2) is a standout. Trainer Darien Rodriguez wins at a high clip, and Samuel Marin is aboard. This gelding has good tactical speed and should get the jump on the deep closers. He fits the class condition perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Specialagentjonson is a major threat from the inside. Samy Camacho takes the mount, which is always a signal of intent. He will likely try to save ground and pop out in the stretch. If the rail is not dead, he is a primary contender.
Longshots
Dial Him Up (15-1) carries a light weight of 114 lbs. In a race where stamina matters, that weight break could be the difference in the final 100 yards. He is a live longshot for the bottom of exotics.
Betting Strategy
Noble Factor is a solid anchor. Pair him with Specialagentjonson in exactas.
Selections
Win: Noble Factor
Place: Specialagentjonson
Show: Dial Him Up
6th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
A 7-furlong sprint for non-winners of two. Profitability and Fit to Fire are expected to show speed. The 7-furlong distance is tricky for the pure speed types, giving the edge to horses that can finish.
Key Contenders
Fit to Fire (3-1) looks ready to graduate to the next level. Another Kathleen O’Connell runner, this 3-year-old gelding has been knocking on the door. He has the speed to clear but can also rate. Samuel Marin rides, adding confidence.
Secondary Choices
Homer Jones (4-1) comes from the Juan Carlos Avila barn. He has shown flashes of ability and should be running late. The extra furlong (compared to 6f) should help his running style.
Longshots
Blue Marble (12-1) adds blinkers (noted as ‘b’ in some past PPs, though not explicitly on today’s card, check equipment changes). Sonny Leon rides, and if he can get this horse focused, he has the back class to upset.
Betting Strategy
Fit to Fire is the most likely winner, but Homer Jones offers better value.
Selections
Win: Fit to Fire
Place: Homer Jones
Show: Profitability
7th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
A 1-mile turf event for fillies and mares. This is a competitive field. Mobay Princess and Tell Me Some Lies will take money. The outside post bias on the turf course makes horses like Timeless Rose and Laloba Feroz interesting if they draw in from the eligible list or start wide.
Key Contenders
Dynamic Actress (8-5) is the morning line favorite for a reason. Samy Camacho rides for Juan Arriagada. She has the best recent speed figures and a devastating turn of foot on the grass. She is the class of the field.
Secondary Choices
Tell Me Some Lies (4-1) is a consistent turf performer for Joe Orseno. She will likely stalk the pace and try to get the jump on Dynamic Actress. Samuel Marin rides, continuing his strong day.
Longshots
She Fled the Scene (20-1) is a 9-year-old mare who knows this course well. She is a deep closer who needs a pace meltdown, but at this price, she is worth a small saver across the board.
Betting Strategy
Dynamic Actress is a potential single in the late Pick 3. The exactas should go through her.
Selections
Win: Dynamic Actress
Place: Tell Me Some Lies
Show: She Fled the Scene
8th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
The feature race on the dirt is a 6-furlong optional claimer. This race is loaded with back class. Fluid Situation and Toddchero are the speed.
Key Contenders
Toddchero (3-1) is the horse to beat. Antonio Gallardo rides for Juan Arriagada. He is in peak form and has been firing bullets in the morning. He should sit just off Fluid Situation and pounce.
Secondary Choices
Fluid Situation (9-2) is a very dangerous runner. He has faced much tougher company at New York tracks. If he brings his “A” game, he could wire this field. The only concern is if he gets into a duel early.
Longshots
Saint Tapit (20-1) is the fascinating horse in the race. A son of Tapit out of Havre de Grace, he started his career 2-for-2 at Saratoga before losing form. Now a 6-year-old, he is listed at a massive price. If he retains any of his old class, he could destroy this field. He is a must-use in exotics at these odds as a “bomb.”
Betting Strategy
This is a race to take a swing. Toddchero is the safe play, but a win bet on Saint Tapit at 15-1 or higher is a value proposition you rarely see.
Selections
Win: Toddchero
Place: Fluid Situation
Show: Saint Tapit
9th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, December 12th, 2025
Pace Analysis
The finale is a 1-mile turf maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. This is a “connections” race. Top turf trainers Motion, Clement, and McGaughey have entries.
Key Contenders
Brooklyn Styles (8-5) is the clear top choice. Trained by Miguel Clement and ridden by Samy Camacho, this colt has shown promise in New York. He likely ships south to break his maiden against slightly softer company. His form (3-5-2-2) shows he is knocking on the door.
Secondary Choices
Protect and Defend (5-2) represents the Shug McGaughey barn. Shug is patient with his 2-year-olds, and this one should improve significantly with experience. Samuel Marin takes the mount.
Longshots
Lesotho Promise (9-2) is a Graham Motion trainee. Motion is deadly with turf routers at Tampa. At 9-2 or higher, he offers great value to upset the Clement favorite.
Betting Strategy
Trifecta box the “Big Three”: Brooklyn Styles, Protect and Defend, and Lesotho Promise. It is hard to see the winner coming from outside this trio.
Selections
Win: Brooklyn Styles
Place: Protect and Defend
Show: Lesotho Promise
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samy Camacho is the rider to watch today. He is on several live favorites, including Dynamic Actress (R7) and Brooklyn Styles (R9). When Camacho is on the favorite on the turf at Tampa, he wins at a high percentage.
Samuel Marin has a strong book today, riding contenders like Long Gone Sally (R4), Noble Factor (R5), and Protect and Defend (R9). He is an excellent value jockey who often gets home on secondary choices.
Jose Ferrer remains a master of the Tampa oval. Look for him to save ground and steal a race, possibly with Princess Britni in Race 2.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Kathleen O’Connell sends out a strong army today (Justamomentplease, Princess Britni, Fit to Fire). She is the perennial leading trainer here and her horses are always ready to run off the bench.
Miguel Clement and Graham Motion in the 9th race signal top-class turf intentions. When these New York/Maryland outfits ship to Tampa for the winter, their stock is usually superior to the local maiden ranks.
Juan Arriagada has two major contenders in Dynamic Actress and Toddchero. His barn has been firing at a 25%+ win clip recently.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day: Brooklyn Styles (Race 9). The Clement trainee faces a field that seems a cut below his New York form. He should graduate today.
Best Value Play: Saint Tapit (Race 8). Listed at 20-1, this horse has Grade 1 bloodlines and back class that dwarfs this field. Even at 80% of his best, he competes here. The price is too big to ignore.
Daily Double (Races 8-9):
Race 8: 3, 8, 10 (Fluid Situation, Toddchero, Saint Tapit)
Race 9: 7 (Brooklyn Styles)
This targets a score in the finale using the value from the 8th race.
Pick 3 (Races 4-6):
Race 4: 6 (Long Gone Sally)
Race 5: 1, 5 (Specialagentjonson, Noble Factor)
Race 6: 2, 9 (Fit to Fire, Homer Jones)
Cost is manageable, and it leans on the reliable Long Gone Sally to start the sequence.
