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Welcome to a fascinating Friday card at Tampa Bay Downs. We have a mix of class levels today, ranging from high-end allowance optional claimers to bottom-level maiden claimers. The feature is the 7th race, a turf allowance that has drawn a heavy hitter from the Chad Brown barn, signaling serious intent.
The weather for this late December afternoon is unseasonably warm. Forecasts call for cloudy skies with a high near 81 degrees. With very low precipitation chances leading up to post time, we expect a fast main track. The turf course should be firm and quick, playing kindly to horses with a turn of foot.
The Oldsmar oval has been playing fair recently, though the dirt surface can sometimes favor outside stalking paths if the rail gets deep. On the turf, watch for horses that can save ground before tipping out; wide trips are often costly on this tight course.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Cloudy, High 81°F, Winds Light at 2-5 mph.
Dirt: Fast
Turf: Firm
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samy Camacho and Gerald Bennett continue to be the most dangerous combination on the grounds. They team up multiple times today, most notably with Chrome Ghost in the 1st and Secret Victory in the 9th. When this duo links up, especially in claiming ranks, the horses are almost always “live.”
Keep an eye on jockey Samuel Marin, who has picked up several live mounts today, including the Chad Brown shipper in the 7th. His patient riding style fits the turf course profile well.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Gerald Bennett has a heavy hand in today's entries, sending out runners in nearly every dirt race. His ability to drop horses down the ladder to find their winning level is unmatched here. In Race 4, he drops El Principito significantly, a move that often signals a waking-up performance.
Chad Brown ships Risk Tolerance into the 7th race. Brown rarely ships to Tampa for a mid-level allowance unless he is looking for a confidence builder or a specific surface condition. This is a major class signal.
Race 1 Analysis
Pace Analysis
The day begins with a competitive 6 1/2 furlong sprint. Khozeiress is the primary speed of the race. Drawing the rail in a compact field often forces a jockey's hand, and we expect Leon to send him hard to protect his position. Dreaming of Kona has tactical speed but prefers to stalk, likely sitting just off the flank of the leader.
Key Contenders
Khozeiress enters this race with a distinct pace advantage. As a 5-year-old, he has matured into a dangerous front-runner. If he clears the field early, he could be tough to catch on a fast track.
Dreaming of Kona is the class of the field. A graded stakes winner in his youth, he finds a comfortable spot here. While 6 1/2 furlongs might be a touch sharp for him compared to his best mile races, his class can carry him through. He will be the one closing late if the pace collapses.
Secondary Choices
Chrome Ghost represents the Bennett/Camacho team. He is a consistent check-earner who picks up the pieces when the top two falter. He may not have the raw brilliance of the top two, but he is reliable.
Selections
Win: Khozeiress
Place: Dreaming of Kona
Show: Chrome Ghost
Race 2 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A chaotic $5,000 claiming event for fillies and mares at a mile and 40 yards. There is very little confirmed speed signed on. Play Free Bird might inherit the lead by default, or we could see a longshot like Viking Queen try to steal it on the front end.
Key Contenders
Play Free Bird looks like the standout in this soft group. She has back class that exceeds the $5,000 tag and gets the services of Samy Camacho. Her ability to handle both surfaces gives her a fitness edge, and this field lacks a true closer to punish her if she moves early.
Secondary Choices
Bramble Bush is a veteran 7-year-old mare. While her best days are behind her, this company is incredibly weak. If she can summon even a fraction of her old form, she fits.
Longshots
Viking Queen could wake up with the addition of Ademar Santos. In these bottom-level route races, sometimes the horse that makes the first move is the winner, and Santos is an aggressive gate rider.
Selections
Win: Play Free Bird
Place: Bramble Bush
Show: Red Eleanor
Race 3 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming mile event features a field of horses who have struggled to find the winner's circle. Career Risk and Rojo Sky have shown flashes of early foot in sprints and will likely stretch out as the speed of the race.
Key Contenders
Matty B Good finally draws a field he can beat. With Samy Camacho aboard, he should get a perfect stalking trip. He has shown a tendency to hang in the lane, but today he faces a group with even less finishing kick.
Secondary Choices
Renege adds blinkers (denoted by 'b' in some past performances) or equipment changes that trainer Aldana Spieth is known for. The Spieth barn is capable of popping with a price in these spots.
Selections
Win: Matty B Good
Place: Renege
Show: Career Risk
Race 4 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A Starter Allowance at 6 furlongs. Rainbow's Pride is a dedicated front-runner who will likely duel with Capture the Time. This could set up a hot pace, benefitting the closers.
Key Contenders
El Principito takes a significant class drop into this starter allowance company. While his form in higher stakes company (like his effort on Tampa Bay Derby day earlier this year) was ambitious, this is his friends and family level. The pace setup looks perfect for his late run.
Rocket Dragon is a horse for the course who runs his race every time. He sits mid-pack and grinds it out. He is a must-use in exotics.
Longshots
Capture the Time is dangerous if he clears alone, but with Rainbow's Pride to his inside, he might get cooked in a speed duel.
Selections
Win: El Principito
Place: Rocket Dragon
Show: Silver Slugger
Race 5 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A 2-year-old maiden turf mile. These races are often decided by pedigree and connections. Expect a tentative pace as young horses stretch out for the first time.
Key Contenders
Jeffersonian is the horse to beat. Trained by Eoin Harty, this colt has been working steadily and finds a soft spot for his local debut. The Harty barn excels with developing young turf horses, and his pedigree suggests the mile distance will be right up his alley.
Secondary Choices
Vino Solo represents the local connections and has likely been prepping over this surface. In maiden turf races, horses with local track knowledge often outperform shippers who struggle with the tight turns.
Selections
Win: Jeffersonian
Place: Vino Solo
Show: He's My Uncle
Race 6 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong sprint for non-winners of two. Profitability draws the rail and has speed, but My Lucky Angel is the one to watch from the outside.
Key Contenders
My Lucky Angel is the selection. The Bennett barn has this 3-year-old spotted aggressively. Drawing outside in a sprint allows jockey Samuel Marin to see how the break develops and choose his spot. He should be able to stalk and pounce.
Profitability will likely be the one to catch, but he has shown vulnerability in the final furlong.
Selections
Win: My Lucky Angel
Place: Profitability
Show: Awesome Fantasy
Race 7 Analysis
Pace Analysis
The feature race, a 1-mile turf allowance. The pace should be honest with horses like Break Out and Venik likely showing initiative.
Key Contenders
Risk Tolerance is the clear class of the field. Chad Brown shipping a horse to Tampa for an allowance race is a move that demands respect. He has been facing much tougher competition on the New York circuit. If he handles the ship and the tighter course, he wins.
Secondary Choices
Noble Factor is a consistent local turf horse who will be running on at the end. If the favorite fails to fire or gets trapped in traffic, Noble Factor is the most likely beneficiary.
Chicago Theatre is another logical contender who runs consistent speed figures that fit this level.
Selections
Win: Risk Tolerance
Place: Noble Factor
Show: Chicago Theatre
Race 8 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong sprint for fillies and mares. Compass Fire and Waterworks both possess early speed. This could turn into a match race on the front end.
Key Contenders
Waterworks is a veteran mare who knows how to win. She drops into a comfortable claiming price and has the back class to dominate this group. Her recent form suggests she retains her speed.
Secondary Choices
Compass Fire draws inside and will have to go. If she can shake loose from Waterworks, she becomes dangerous.
Selections
Win: Waterworks
Place: Compass Fire
Show: Timely Reward
Race 9 Analysis
Pace Analysis
We close with a 1 1/16 mile turf claiming race. Secret Victory will likely try to control the pace or sit very close. The turf rails at Tampa can be kind to speed in the last race of the day as the ground firms up.
Key Contenders
Secret Victory is the pick. A full sister to a stakes winner, she has the pedigree to excel here. The Bennett/Camacho team closes out the card, and they often save a live mount for the nightcap. She should have the tactical speed to secure a good position going into the first turn.
Secondary Choices
Bolt of Paradise is a deep closer who needs a pace meltdown. In a large field of 13, traffic trouble is a real concern for her, but she will be flying late.
Selections
Win: Secret Victory
Place: Bolt of Paradise
Show: Classy Lass
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The “Risk” Key:
In Race 7, Risk Tolerance is the most probable winner on the card. Use him as a single in all multi-race wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4) to keep ticket costs down.
The Daily Double:
Play a Race 1 Double: Khozeiress / Dreaming of Kona in Race 1 connected to Play Free Bird in Race 2.
Value Play:
In Race 4, El Principito may get overlooked due to recent poor form in higher class races. The drop to Starter Allowance is massive. He offers great value if he floats up to 4-1 or 5-1.
The “Bennett” Pick 3:
Gerald Bennett has live runners in Races 4, 6, and 9. A Pick 3 ticket emphasizing his runners in these legs is a statistically sound strategy given his win percentage at this meet.
