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Tampa Bay Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 13, 2026 card

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Tampa Bay Downs offers a nine-race Friday card on March 13, 2026, with a mix of dirt sprints, maiden claimers, and several turf routes that will demand careful attention to pace and trip. The feature in terms of class is the opening allowance optional claimer at seven furlongs on dirt, while the late card is dominated by turf claiming routes that historically reward patience and strong finishers.

Overall, the configuration and historical data suggest a relatively fair main track without a strong rail or outside bias, while the turf course slightly favors inside posts and late runners, particularly in two-turn events. That backdrop, combined with today's weather and firm going, points toward giving extra credit to horses who can finish strongly in the turf routes and to tactical speed with stamina in the dirt sprints and middle-distance races.

Weather and Track Conditions

Regional forecasts for the Tampa Bay area call for a dry, comfortable afternoon with mid-70s to near 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and lowering humidity, with any rain confined mainly to later in the week. Winds are expected to be moderate, around 5 to 15 mph, strongest early and easing later in the day, which should have minimal impact on race flow beyond a slight headwind or tailwind on the backstretch and homestretch.​

With no significant rain in the immediate forecast and typical maintenance, both the dirt and turf surfaces can be expected to play fast and firm, respectively. Firm turf and a fast main track will accentuate the usual Tampa Bay Downs profile: honest surfaces that do not heavily favor a single running style but can magnify pace collapses when multiple committed speeds hook up.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Long-term Tampa Bay Downs metrics indicate that the dirt track is one of the more neutral surfaces in North America, with no overwhelming inside or outside bias in sprints. In dirt sprints, roughly mid-teens percentages of winners come from both the inside (post 1) and outside (post 7) slots when fields are large enough, suggesting that trip and pace matter far more than post alone.​

In dirt routes, inside draws have a modest but real edge, with a higher share of winners coming from posts 1–3, especially at two turns where ground loss adds up. On the turf, inside posts are more advantageous, with post 1 capturing around the mid-teens percentage of wins and post 5 also performing well, while some outside posts, especially mid-outside, underperform.​

Recent meet-wide profiles also highlight that Tampa Bay Downs turf routes show a strong tilt toward off-the-pace and closing runners, with late runners winning a notably higher than usual share and early speed struggling to sustain. That pattern should directly inform how we treat races 5, 7, and 9, where horses with proven finishing kicks and riders comfortable saving ground and timing late runs deserve extra credit, and lone-speed types must be exceptional to wire the field.

1st Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 7 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Troops (1), Canuto (2), Doroteo (3), Jonathan's Song (4), Mary's Lad (IRE) (5), Develop Product (6), Embrace My Uncle (7)

Post Time

12:35 PM local (approximate first post from official entries schedule).​

Pace Analysis

This seven-furlong allowance optional claimer typically hinges on which runners commit to the front and whether anyone can press a moderate leader into quick early fractions. Historical Tampa data suggests seven furlongs often rewards tactical speed that can sit within two to three lengths and finish, rather than deep closers.​

Troops (1) has the rail and projects as a forwardly placed runner who can either send or sit just off the pace. Canuto (2), Doroteo (3), and Jonathan's Song (4) look more tactical or stalking types who can settle mid-pack, while Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) and Develop Product (6) may be pace-influenced depending on rider intent, with Embrace My Uncle (7) likely to sit mid to back. Overall, expect an honest but not suicidal pace, favoring horses who can secure the two- to four-path in the second flight turning for home.

Key Contenders

Troops (1) is well-drawn on the rail, has the right blend of tactical speed and stamina, and fits this allowance optional claiming level on paper. His rider, Sonny Leon, is more than capable of nursing speed or working out a ground-saving trip in these middle-distance Tampa dirt races. With the weight assignment of 122 and recent form good enough to compete at this level, Troops (1) is the most likely to control his own destiny.​

Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) represents the main threat, particularly if he has shown prior ability on either synthetic or turf translating to dirt stamina and late kick. He gets a positive rider in Daniel Centeno, who is experienced and comfortable judging pace in Tampa sprints and elongated sprints. Off a likely improving pattern and with the weight break to 118, Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) fits as a strong late threat.​

Embrace My Uncle (7), despite being a nine-year-old, has the back-class and experience to be dangerous if the pace is more contested than expected. Veteran Samy Camacho often excels with older geldings when he can drop them in behind and time a late run. If Embrace My Uncle (7) retains a decent portion of his prior ability, he can pick up the pieces late.​

Secondary Choices

Canuto (2) offers some appeal as a mid-priced tactical runner for trainer Jorge Delgado, who does solid work with allowance and claiming types. Samuel Marin is a capable rider who can place Canuto (2) in a stalking spot, and at 118 pounds he gets a subtle but meaningful weight break if he has to grind late.

Jonathan's Song (4) for trainer Philip Bauer is another who could improve at this distance. With a lighter impost of 118 and Cipriano Gil aboard, Jonathan's Song (4) can tuck behind the first flight and get first run on the deeper closers if he breaks alertly.

Develop Product (6) has had multiple scratches and entry attempts at lower claiming levels recently as shown on the scratch watch, which raises questions about his current condition. If he is fully sound and returns to his better efforts, he has enough ability to factor, but the pattern suggests caution. Still, at 122 pounds and with a rider who knows the local circuit in Pedro Cotto Jr., Develop Product (6) might be used underneath in exotics.​

Longshots

Doroteo (3) has some longshot appeal if his underlying speed figures are not far off the top pair and if he can secure a ground-saving inside-mid trip. With Alonso Quinonez aboard and only 118 pounds, Doroteo (3) may make a mild late run if the pace is stronger than projected.

Embrace My Uncle (7), while noted as a key contender for potential late kick, can still be considered a value or longshot type depending on the morning line. His age and recent form likely ensure a decent price.

Selections

Selections

Win Troops (1)
Place Mary's Lad (IRE) (5)
Show Embrace My Uncle (7)

Wagering angle: Key Troops (1) on top in exactas over Mary's Lad (IRE) (5), Embrace My Uncle (7), Canuto (2), and Jonathan's Song (4); consider a small win saver on Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) if he drifts above fair value.

2nd Race – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Russian Hammer (1), Float On (2), My Man Woody (3), Imtakinittothebank (4), Ronic (5), Auger (6), Star Kanoo (7), Eightysixchevy (8), Limit Up (9), Machismo (10)

Post Time

1:05 PM local (second race on the card).​

Pace Analysis

This lower-level claiming sprint is loaded with older geldings, some of whom have plenty of early speed. Expect Russian Hammer (1), My Man Woody (3), and possibly Eightysixchevy (8) to show good early lick, while Imtakinittothebank (4) and Ronic (5) can be involved just behind them. With multiple older speed types, the early fractions could be sharp, opening the door for a stalker or mid-pack runner to finish best.

Float On (2), Limit Up (9), and Machismo (10) look more like stalker/closer types who could benefit from the expected pace scenario. Given Tampa's relatively fair sprint track, a hot pace could tilt this in favor of the more patient trips.​

Key Contenders

Limit Up (9) stands out as a key player given his profile as a capable mid-pack stalker for trainer Jeffrey Englehart and rider Sonny Leon. The outside draw allows Leon to read the early situation and either drop in behind or sit three-wide with clear air. At 122 pounds, Limit Up (9) is well-situated to capitalize on a pace meltdown.​

Float On (2) has been scratched recently from a similar race, but when right, he has back-class and fits this level. With Daniel Centeno aboard and breaking just inside the main speed cluster, Float On (2) could secure a perfect stalking trip behind the front line and pounce turning for home.​

My Man Woody (3) with Samy Camacho is the most appealing of the speeds, as Camacho excels in rationing speed and the horse's five-year-old profile suggests he may still have some upside relative to the older campaigners. If he can avoid a prolonged duel, My Man Woody (3) could take them a long way on the front.

Secondary Choices

Russian Hammer (1), drawn on the rail, must break sharply or risk being shuffled back behind fading rivals. If he breaks and holds the pocket, Russian Hammer (1) can be a factor at the top of the lane.

Eightysixchevy (8) is an interesting secondary contender for trainer Tim Padilla, who often places his horses aggressively. With Alonso Quinonez aboard, Eightysixchevy (8) might press or sit just off the leaders, but his wide draw can cause ground loss if he cannot clear quickly.

Machismo (10), at eleven years old, is all about whether he retains enough speed and competitiveness. With Ricardo Feliciano aboard and an outside draw, Machismo (10) is more likely to stalk and try to pick up the pieces late for minor awards.

Longshots

Imtakinittothebank (4) and Ronic (5) may be overlooked on the tote but could provide value in deeper exotics if they can track the leaders and hang around for a share. Their form will dictate actual viability once past performances are consulted, but they should be mentioned as potential trifecta/superfecta fillers.

Auger (6) and Star Kanoo (7) seem more dependent on specific trip and pace collapse scenarios and can be used only at big odds in underneath slots.

Selections

Selections

Win Limit Up (9)
Place Float On (2)
Show My Man Woody (3)

Wagering angle: Focus on Limit Up (9) and Float On (2) in exacta boxes; use My Man Woody (3), Russian Hammer (1), Eightysixchevy (8), and Machismo (10) underneath in tris and supers.

3rd Race – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Newyearsblockparty (1), Osprey (2), Supreme Song (3), Estilo Magico (4), Circle Back Jack (5), Reverend Moon (6), Ace Ventura (CHI) (7), Happy Instead (8), Mithridates (9), Lee Ann's Warrior (10)

Post Time

1:36 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

Similar conditions to race 2 imply another contentious sprint with several potential pace factors. Circle Back Jack (5), Reverend Moon (6), and Lee Ann's Warrior (10) all project speed or tactical speed; Supreme Song (3) may also be close to the early lead. A fast early pace seems likely, especially with multiple trainers known for sending from the gate.

Happy Instead (8), Mithridates (9), and Newyearsblockparty (1) may sit mid-pack or slightly back, looking to capitalize late. The outcome will largely depend on whether the speed collapses; Tampa's neutral sprint track means they must go fast enough up front to set up a closer.​

Key Contenders

Circle Back Jack (5) for trainer Jon Arnett with Samuel Marin aboard looks like a key pace player who can either send or press. The mid-gate draw allows flexibility, and if the track is playing kindly to speed, Circle Back Jack (5) could prove tough to run down.

Reverend Moon (6) with Sonny Leon gives you a high-percentage rider who can sit just off the leaders and make a decisive move at the 3/8 pole. Leon's style fits the likely pace scenario well, and Reverend Moon (6) should be prominent throughout.

Happy Instead (8) under Israel Rodriguez for trainer Juan Arriagada has the look of a stalker/closer who can benefit from a hot pace. With a post that allows him to stay in the clear, Happy Instead (8) is a logical contender if early fractions are sharp.

Secondary Choices

Supreme Song (3) and Estilo Magico (4) are mid-priced runners who could get good trips. Supreme Song (3) has had a recent scratch for steward reasons, but now returns at this level, and he may show improved form if ready. Estilo Magico (4) for trainer Michael Simone is typically placed where he can get a piece, and with Ubardo Casique up, Estilo Magico (4) can sit just off the early leaders.​

Newyearsblockparty (1) from the rail with Ricardo Feliciano may either send or risk getting shuffled. If he can hold position and find a seam, Newyearsblockparty (1) could surprise, particularly if he retains some of his better past figures.

Longshots

Ace Ventura (CHI) (7), Osprey (2), Mithridates (9), and Lee Ann's Warrior (10) round out the field. Ace Ventura (CHI) (7) can be used as a deep exotics longshot if his turf or route form translates somewhat to a late-running sprint on dirt. Osprey (2) and Mithridates (9) will need favorable setups and improvement to factor beyond minor awards.

Selections

Selections

Win Reverend Moon (6)
Place Circle Back Jack (5)
Show Happy Instead (8)

Wagering angle: Use Reverend Moon (6) and Circle Back Jack (5) prominently in horizontal wagers; key them with Happy Instead (8), Supreme Song (3), and Estilo Magico (4) in exactas and trifectas.

4th Race – Maiden Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs Dirt (Fillies and Mares)

Field: Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Gone A Lil West (3), Tranquila Ruby (4), Classy Kay (5), E Complicato (6), Miss Uproar (7), Blue Ice (8), She's Our D N A (9), Jenn Sweet Jenn (10), That Thing You Do (11), Princess Honor (12)

Post Time

2:08 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

Maiden claiming sprints for older fillies and mares can be chaotic, with many lacking established form. Expect Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Classy Kay (5), and She's Our D N A (9) to show at least some early speed, while others like E Complicato (6), Miss Uproar (7), and Jenn Sweet Jenn (10) may stalk or close.

Because these are older maidens at a lower claiming level, the early fractions may not be as swift as a comparable race for younger, fresher horses. That typically rewards the runner who can break cleanly and maintain position rather than making a wide rally from the back.

Key Contenders

She's Our D N A (9) stands out as a likely key contender, pairing the high-percentage Samy Camacho with trainer Renaldo Richards in a spot where intent should be high. The outside-mid draw gives She's Our D N A (9) tactical options and clear running room, a valuable asset in a big field.

E Complicato (6) for trainer Charles Ciaio and jockey Jose Ferrer is another logical type, especially if she has flashed any prior speed or late kick. The mid-gate draw helps E Complicato (6) avoid traffic and secure a stalking spot, and Ferrer knows how to nurse a maiden through a developing trip.

Classy Kay (5) with Gaddiel Martinez may represent a live speed or pace-presser, especially if she can clear some of the inside traffic and cross over. Her inside-mid draw is ideal to either attend the pace or sit just off.

Secondary Choices

Jenn Sweet Jenn (10) with Ricardo Feliciano and That Thing You Do (11) with Cipriano Gil are both reasonable secondary options from outside posts. Their positions allow them to stay out of trouble, and trainers Anthony Rini and Gerard Ochoa, respectively, often spot their maiden claimers realistically.

Blue Ice (8) and Tranquila Ruby (4) are others who could clunk up for a share if they can avoid traffic and stay within striking distance turning for home. Miss Uproar (7) has appeared as an also-eligible in previous maiden claiming events, suggesting the barn has been trying to get her in a right spot; Michael Simone often has them fit when they finally get a run.​

Longshots

Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Gone A Lil West (3), and Princess Honor (12) look more like longshots, especially from their respective posts. Queen of Spirits (1) must handle the rail, while Princess Honor (12) will need to overcome the far outside draw and potential ground loss. If the pace collapses or if any show improved form, they can be considered in superfectas.

Selections

Selections

Win She's Our D N A (9)
Place E Complicato (6)
Show Classy Kay (5)

Wagering angle: Use She's Our D N A (9) as a key in exactas and tris with E Complicato (6), Classy Kay (5), Jenn Sweet Jenn (10), That Thing You Do (11), and Miss Uproar (7).

5th Race – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile Turf

Field: Last Bottle (1), Shinyhappygroovy (2), Spurious (3), Dominator C. (4), Senor Resplandor (5), Resurgo (6), Madcap (7), Neostar (8), Grand Liam (9), Virgin Island Nice (10), America Lives (11), Xiao Long (12), Great Hunt (13)

Post Time

2:39 PM local, scheduled for turf at one mile with the rail at 12 feet.​

Pace Analysis

With thirteen entries in a maiden turf mile, including some that have been scratched previously from turf or off-turf spots, this race should have at least an honest to slightly quick early pace. Tampa turf routes strongly favor off-the-pace and closing runners over sustained front-end speed, so the overall profile leans toward a mid-pack or deep closer winning if they can save ground.

Shinyhappygroovy (2), Senor Resplandor (5), Resurgo (6), and perhaps Neostar (8) may show early speed or pressing style. Last Bottle (1), Madcap (7), Grand Liam (9), and Great Hunt (13) appear more like stalkers or mid-pack grinders.

Key Contenders

Resurgo (6) with Samy Camacho and trainer Abraham Gardea looks like a key contender, combining a live turf rider with an improving youngster in a field of maidens. Although recently appearing as also-eligible in a maiden claiming event, Resurgo (6) now gets in a one-mile turf race where his style should suit the track profile.

Shinyhappygroovy (2) has Antonio Gallardo, a strong turf jockey at Tampa, and trainer Lester Barbazon III. The inside post and tactical speed give Shinyhappygroovy (2) a chance to control or sit just off the pace while saving ground, ideal in a large field.

Neostar (8) from Ricky Davis's barn with Alex Gonzalez riding also fits as a key contender if he has shown any affinity for turf and route distances. The mid-outside draw is manageable at this configuration, allowing Neostar (8) to tuck in around the first turn.

Secondary Choices

Last Bottle (1) has been scratched recently from a maiden special turf spot by the veterinarian but now drops in class to this maiden claiming level, which could be a significant positive if sound today. With Skyler Spanabel up and the rail draw, Last Bottle (1) can save ground and attempt to make a late run.​

Dominator C. (4) has multiple recent scratches, including steward scratches and also-eligible status, which complicates read on his readiness. If fit, Dominator C. (4) may show improved form at this level. Grand Liam (9) and America Lives (11) also merit consideration as mid-priced types who can sit a second flight trip and benefit from a pace that softens the leaders.​

Longshots

Spurious (3), Madcap (7), Virgin Island Nice (10), Xiao Long (12), and Great Hunt (13) all have some longshot appeal in a wide-open maiden turf route. Spurious (3) has had steward and off-turf scratches previously, indicating the barn has been targeting grass; if he handles it, Spurious (3) could move up. Great Hunt (13) faces the toughest draw and may be forced wide, but could be used underneath.​

Selections

Selections

Win Resurgo (6)
Place Shinyhappygroovy (2)
Show Last Bottle (1)

Wagering angle: Emphasize closers in exactas and tris: key Resurgo (6) and Shinyhappygroovy (2) with Last Bottle (1), Neostar (8), Grand Liam (9), and America Lives (11); consider spreading in horizontal sequences due to maiden volatility.

6th Race – Maiden Claiming – 7 Furlongs Dirt (3-year-olds)

Field: Night Raven (1), Strong Temptation (2), Chance On Me (3), Fast Prince (4), Turbo Fire (5), Lighting Arrow (6), Roux Bucherro (7), Cousin Vinny (8), Runaway Rooster (9)

Post Time

3:10 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

Seven furlongs for three-year-old maiden claimers often produces sharp early fractions as inexperienced runners vie for position. Turbo Fire (5), Lighting Arrow (6), and Roux Bucherro (7) look like primary pace players, with Cousin Vinny (8) also possibly showing early speed. Night Raven (1) and Strong Temptation (2) might aim to stalk from just off the leaders, while Runaway Rooster (9) can be a later-running type.

Given Tampa's fair sprint profile, the winner likely comes from horses who can sit just off the early scrum and have enough stamina to finish the elongated sprint.​

Key Contenders

Turbo Fire (5) with Sonny Leon for trainer Huber Dominguez profiles very strongly here: inside-mid draw, tactical early speed, and a rider adept at rationing pace. Turbo Fire (5) should be prominent from the start and is the most likely to be in the right position turning for home.

Roux Bucherro (7) for Kathleen O'Connell and Samuel Marin is a strong alternative. The barn does well with young horses at Tampa, and the seven-furlong distance suits a horse who can stalk or press. Roux Bucherro (7) should get a good line of sight on the leaders.

Strong Temptation (2) has had a prior steward scratch but returns now for Gary Ellebracht with Alonso Quinonez aboard; the inside-mid post is good, and Strong Temptation (2) might show improved form at this level, especially if he can settle and finish.​

Secondary Choices

Night Raven (1) for Antonio Sano and Victor Lara is intriguing, especially with the bug weight allowance down to 112 pounds. If he breaks well from the rail and holds position, Night Raven (1) can get a ground-saving trip and potentially finish well.

Lighting Arrow (6) for Pedro Garcia Jr. with Marcos Meneses and Cousin Vinny (8) for Javier Morzan with Jacinto Herrera are both capable of making the front or sitting just off. Their success will depend on whether they can avoid a destructive pace duel with Turbo Fire (5) and Roux Bucherro (7).

Longshots

Chance On Me (3), Fast Prince (4), and Runaway Rooster (9) appear more speculative. Fast Prince (4) has been entered as a main-track-only type previously, hinting the barn wants him on dirt; if he shows speed and improves, Fast Prince (4) can be used underneath. Runaway Rooster (9) has been an also-eligible previously and might find this seven-furlong trip right for a late run.​

Selections

Selections

Win Turbo Fire (5)
Place Roux Bucherro (7)
Show Strong Temptation (2)

Wagering angle: Key Turbo Fire (5) and Roux Bucherro (7) in horizontals; in verticals, spread underneath with Night Raven (1), Lighting Arrow (6), Cousin Vinny (8), and Fast Prince (4).

7th Race – Claiming – 1 Mile Turf (N2L)

Field: Alrasikh (1), Intolerable (2), Boy O' Boy (3), Ramesses (4), Moralito (5), North Ship (6), Sky Masterson (7), Ragman (8), Deportivo (9), Mungo (10), Mr Business (11), El Bailador (12), Starship Magellan (13)

Post Time

3:41 PM local, scheduled for turf at one mile with the rail at 12 feet.​

Pace Analysis

This non-winners of two claiming turf mile has a full gate and several runners with tactical speed. Moralito (5) with Camacho, Sky Masterson (7), and Deportivo (9) may be among the main pace or pace-pressers. Alrasikh (1) and Intolerable (2) can sit handy behind them, while Ragman (8), Mungo (10), Mr Business (11), and Starship Magellan (13) may be deeper closers.

Given Tampa's turf bias toward off-the-pace runners and the congestion of a big field, this race sets up nicely for mid-pack grinders and late closers who can save ground and find a lane in the lane.​

Key Contenders

Moralito (5) for trainer Darien Rodriguez with Samy Camacho is a key contender; Rodriguez-Camacho is one of the strongest combinations on this circuit, and Moralito (5) should be well-positioned throughout. His tactical speed and ability to sustain a run fit this configuration perfectly.

Deportivo (9) for Kathleen O'Connell and Sonny Leon is another strong contender. The outside-mid draw permits Leon to observe the early tempo and slot Deportivo (9) into a comfortable stalking position. Tampa turf routes suit this kind of patient stalker profile.​

Alrasikh (1) has appeared as also-eligible in earlier maiden claiming spots and now finds a N2L claiming condition with a rail draw, which is advantageous in turf miles at Tampa. If Gabriel Maldonado can secure the pocket and avoid getting boxed, Alrasikh (1) could finish strongly.

Secondary Choices

Ragman (8) and Mr Business (11), both with prior off-turf scratches, suggest their connections have been targeting grass. Ragman (8) now draws an inside-mid post with Jesus Lopez Castanon aboard, and as a closer he fits the prevailing bias. Mr Business (11) for Francisco Alanis with Jorge Panaijo will need to overcome an outer draw but can be used in exotics if his late kick is intact.​

Sky Masterson (7) for Michael Dini and Cipriano Gil has some appeal as a mid-pack stalker who can be placed wherever the jockey wishes. North Ship (6) for Kathleen Guciardo with Samuel Marin may offer value if he can sit a ground-saving trip behind the leaders.

Longshots

Intolerable (2), Boy O' Boy (3), Mungo (10), El Bailador (12), and Starship Magellan (13) round out the field. El Bailador (12) has had several recent also-eligible or veterinarian scratches, raising questions about soundness or timing. Starship Magellan (13) must overcome the far outside draw; he profiles as an exotics-only closer.​

Selections

Selections

Win Moralito (5)
Place Deportivo (9)
Show Alrasikh (1)

Wagering angle: Lean on Moralito (5) and Deportivo (9) in the middle-late Pick 4/Pick 5; use Ragman (8), North Ship (6), Sky Masterson (7), and Mr Business (11) underneath in trifectas and superfectas, emphasizing mid-pack and late runners.

8th Race – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Field: Power Attack (1), Toddchero (2), Mor Spring Spirit (3), Raydar Control (4), Samurai Prince (5), Rainbow's Pride (6), Go Otto Go (7), Rocket Dragon (8), Capture The Time (9)

Post Time

4:12 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

This high-end claiming sprint for older horses should feature a sharp early pace, with several trained to be on or near the front. Power Attack (1), Raydar Control (4), Samurai Prince (5), and Go Otto Go (7) are likely early pace factors, with Rocket Dragon (8) and Mor Spring Spirit (3) able to stalk. Rainbow's Pride (6) and Capture The Time (9) profile as more patient runners.

Given the class and age of these horses, expect professional early fractions and a test of stamina in the lane. With a neutral Tampa sprint profile, the most likely winner will be a tactical speed horse who can avoid a head-and-head duel yet still be within striking range.​

Key Contenders

Power Attack (1) has been scratched recently from an allowance optional claiming spot by the veterinarian and now drops into this claiming race, which signals intent if the horse is sound. With Samy Camacho riding for Gregory Sacco and a rail draw, Power Attack (1) is dangerous if he breaks cleanly and maintains a controlled lead or inside pressing trip.​

Go Otto Go (7) for Jon Arnett with Samuel Marin is another key contender, combining speed with a favorable mid-outside post that offers options. If he can sit just off a duel and pounce in the lane, Go Otto Go (7) fits this condition well.

Rainbow's Pride (6) for Timothy Hamm with Sonny Leon is very interesting as a closing or stalker type in a race loaded with front-runners. If the leaders overdo it early, Rainbow's Pride (6) could be in the perfect third- or fourth-flight spot to finish best.

Secondary Choices

Rocket Dragon (8) has had recent veterinarian scratches from higher-class allowance optional claiming races, suggesting he belongs at a decent level when right. With Scott Spieth riding for Aldana Spieth, Rocket Dragon (8) may sit mid-pack and make a sustained run.​

Toddchero (2) for Dennis Ward with Cipriano Gil has also been scratched recently, dropping to this level now. He might be a live secondary type who can track the leaders and hang around for a share. Raydar Control (4) with Jose Ferrer could be part of the early pace; if he shakes loose, Raydar Control (4) could be dangerous.​

Longshots

Mor Spring Spirit (3), Samurai Prince (5), and Capture The Time (9) offer longshot chances. Samurai Prince (5) may try to send from his mid-gate draw; if the track is carrying speed, he could outperform his price. Capture the Time (9) for David VanWinkle with Wesley Ho may close from far back into a tiring field to pick off tired rivals for lower rungs of tris and supers.

Selections

Selections

Win Go Otto Go (7)
Place Rainbow's Pride (6)
Show Power Attack (1)

Wagering angle: Use Go Otto Go (7) and Rainbow's Pride (6) as A-levels in horizontals; in verticals, box them with Power Attack (1) and Rocket Dragon (8), and use Toddchero (2) and Samurai Prince (5) in deeper tickets.

9th Race – Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles Turf (Fillies and Mares N2L)

Field: Promaja (1), Kuku (2), High Hearts (3), Major Mayhem (4), Eazy Whirled (5), Americandreammaker (6), Jaantje (7), Apple Shake Shake (8), D'argento Bolt (9), Cocktail Kisses (10), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), Awesome Campaign (13), Better Have Cash (14)

Post Time

4:43 PM local, scheduled for 1 1/16 miles on turf with the rail at 12 feet.​

Pace Analysis

This large N2L filly and mare turf route features several potential pace elements. Promaja (1), Kuku (2), High Hearts (3), and Cocktail Kisses (10) may show early speed or pressing style, while Eazy Whirled (5), Americandreammaker (6), and Awesome Campaign (13) likely sit mid-pack. Apple Shake Shake (8), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), Jaantje (7), and Better Have Cash (14) look more like closers.

Given Tampa's strong historical bias toward closing and off-the-pace winners in turf routes, especially with larger fields, this race is primed for a late-running type who can save ground and get a clear lane in the stretch. The projected pace should be honest with a potential second-turn acceleration.

Key Contenders

Americandreammaker (6) is one of the likeliest winners, with Samy Camacho riding for Michelle Hemingway and an ideal tactical style. Consensus probabilities and overseas markets view Americandreammaker (6) near the top of this field, reflecting her profile as a mid-pack runner with a strong late kick. The draw and rider are both positives.​

Awesome Campaign (13) has been pegged as an early favorite in overseas pricing, indicating strong underlying form and upside. The outside post is not ideal, but if Angel Marin can drop Awesome Campaign (13) in behind and save some ground, her class and closing ability should keep her prominent late.​

Cocktail Kisses (10) is also well-regarded, having recently run well in similar company and at this distance. With Samuel Marin for trainer Matthew Kintz, Cocktail Kisses (10) can press or sit just off the pace and may get first run on the deeper closers.​

Secondary Choices

Apple Shake Shake (8) has solid form and a closing style that fits the Tampa turf profile. With Sara Hess aboard for Mario Roberto Lopez, Apple Shake Shake (8) should be given extra consideration in exotics, particularly if the early pace is stronger than expected. Eazy Whirled (5) with Sonny Leon and Darien Rodriguez is another strong secondary, combining a live barn and rider with a likely mid-pack trip.​

Promaja (1) with Jesus Castanon, from the rail, can either lead or track the pace and save ground throughout. If the turf is playing more kindly to speed on the day, Promaja (1) becomes a more serious win threat. Kuku (2) and High Hearts (3), both with low weight assignments and inside-mid draws, are also plausible secondary chances if they can stay within themselves early.​

Longshots

Major Mayhem (4), Jaantje (7), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), and Better Have Cash (14) all offer longshot appeal. Jaantje (7) has had multiple scratches, including veterinarian and steward, making her a questionable proposition but potentially overlooked if she is ready. Better Have Cash (14) must overcome the far outside draw, but a deep closing style and low rider weight with Skyler Spanabel could yield a late charge into the exotics.

D'argento Bolt (9) has previously been scratched from off-turf events and now gets back to her preferred surface; she can be included underneath as a mid-price closer from a good middle post.​

Selections

Selections

Win Americandreammaker (6)
Place Awesome Campaign (13)
Show Cocktail Kisses (10)

Wagering angle: For horizontals, spread with Americandreammaker (6), Awesome Campaign (13), Cocktail Kisses (10), Eazy Whirled (5), and Apple Shake Shake (8); in verticals, key Americandreammaker (6) and Awesome Campaign (13) over those plus Promaja (1), D'argento Bolt (9), and Better Have Cash (14).

Jockey Notes and Insights

Tampa Bay Downs features a core colony of riders with well-established strengths. Samy Camacho is the leading turf and dirt rider on this card, consistently excelling with tactical speed types and well-meant mounts in allowance and claiming races. His mounts like Embrace My Uncle (7) in race 1, My Man Woody (3) in race 2, She's Our D N A (9) in race 4, Resurgo (6) in race 5, Moralito (5) in race 7, Power Attack (1) in race 8, and Americandreammaker (6) in race 9 should all get top-tier rides.​

Sonny Leon has carved a niche as a clever mid-pack and closing rider, especially in longer races and when the pace scenario requires patience. His mounts Troops (1) in race 1, Limit Up (9) in race 2, Reverend Moon (6) in race 3, Eazy Whirled (5) in race 9, and others should be expected to secure efficient trips that minimize ground loss.​

Daniel Centeno and Antonio Gallardo are also prominent local riders, especially effective on turf and in tactical dirt sprints. Centeno's rides on Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) in race 1 and Float On (2) in race 2, and Gallardo on Shinyhappygroovy (2) in race 5, should be given an upgrade when evaluating close calls. Bug riders like Victor Lara and Ronaldo Rodriguez offer weight breaks that can be especially helpful in maiden claiming events where every pound matters, such as Night Raven (1) in race 6 and Mithridates (9) in race 3.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Several trainers on this card have strong Tampa records. Darien Rodriguez usually spots his horses aggressively but realistically, with high win percentages in claiming and allowance categories; runners like Moralito (5) in race 7 and Eazy Whirled (5) in race 9 should be viewed as live. Kathleen O'Connell is another local stalwart, particularly adept in turf routes and developmental spots for three-year-olds and up; her runners like Roux Bucherro (7) in race 6 and Deportivo (9) in race 7 deserve respect.

Jon Arnett often does very well in sprint and allowance-type races, often sending fit, sharp horses; Circle Back Jack (5) in race 3, Samurai Prince (5) in race 8, and Go Otto Go (7) in race 8 reflect his typical profile of speed and fitness. Michelle Hemingway (Americandreammaker (6) in race 9), Matthew Kintz (Cocktail Kisses (10) in race 9), and Maria Bowersock (Promaja (1) in race 9) represent barns that tend to target turf routes, often with horses ready to fire off modest layoffs.

Trainers such as Gerard Ochoa, Ralph Baez, and Francisco Alanis appear with multiple entries and can be streaky; attention should be paid to recent stable form and tote board action on their runners like Jonathan's Song (4) in race 1, Dominator C. (4) in race 5, and Mr Business (11) in race 7. Scratches and also-eligible patterns cited in the scratch watch, particularly for horses like Develop Product (6) in race 1, Dominator C. (4) in race 5, Resurgo (6) in race 5, and various turf claimers in races 7 and 9, hint at connections carefully waiting for ideal conditions, which when finally met, can precede improved efforts.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given Tampa's relatively neutral dirt and closing-biased turf, a strong overall approach is to press opinions in turf routes while spreading more in dirt sprints where small trip differences can decide outcomes. On this card, the races that seem most reliable for building tickets are race 5 (maiden turf), race 7 (N2L turf), and race 9 (N2L filly and mare turf), where track bias, post position, and known turf form give clearer edges.

Potential value plays include Embrace My Uncle (7) in race 1 if his price drifts due to age, Limit Up (9) in race 2 if overlooked behind the speed, Happy Instead (8) in race 3, Last Bottle (1) in race 5 on the drop, Rainbow's Pride (6) in race 8 as a closer into a hot pace, and Apple Shake Shake (8) or Eazy Whirled (5) in race 9 as mid-priced turf closers. These horses should be used as key or backup singles in multi-race exotics when their price is attractive relative to their chance.

For multi-race exotic structures such as the early Pick 5 (races 1–5) or late Pick 5 (races 5–9), consider this general framework:

Early sequence: Lean on Troops (1) and Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) in race 1; spread in races 2 and 3; use She's Our D N A (9) as a key in race 4; and press Resurgo (6) and Shinyhappygroovy (2) in race 5 while using backups like Last Bottle (1) and Neostar (8).

Late sequence: Start race 5 with the same turf maiden core; in race 6, key Turbo Fire (5) and Roux Bucherro (7) with backups; in race 7, focus on Moralito (5), Deportivo (9), and Alrasikh (1) with Ragman (8) and North Ship (6) as backups; in race 8, press Go Otto Go (7) and Rainbow's Pride (6) with Power Attack (1) and Rocket Dragon (8) in reserve; close race 9 by spreading among Americandreammaker (6), Awesome Campaign (13), Cocktail Kisses (10), Eazy Whirled (5), Apple Shake Shake (8), and Promaja (1).

These structures combine strong opinions with coverage where volatility is higher, matching Tampa's known surface profiles and giving you multiple paths to value if a key contender wins at a fair or overlay price.

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