Tampa Bay Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 13, 2026 card


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Welcome to Tampa Bay Downs for a Friday afternoon of competitive thoroughbred racing on February 13. Today's eight-race card features a balanced mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and allowance optional claiming events, heavily utilizing both the main dirt track and the highly regarded turf course. With competitive fields and several intriguing class drops, handicappers will have plenty of opportunities to find value across the card. The feature race of the day is the sixth race, an Allowance Optional Claiming event for three-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf, offering a purse of fifty-five thousand and five hundred dollars. Several notable scratches have altered the complexion of a few races, particularly in the third and eighth events, which will require adjustments to pace projections and wagering strategies.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Tampa today calls for sunny conditions with a high temperature of 73°F, a low of 50°F, northwesterly winds at 9 mph, and a 5% chance of rain. For more details, please refer to the provided weather card. The turf course should be firm and playing exceptionally well, while the main dirt track will be fast, providing fair and optimal conditions for today's competitors.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Historically at this meet, the main dirt track has shown a slight preference for early speed, particularly in the shorter sprint distances like the six and seven-furlong events. Horses breaking from the middle to inside posts have maintained a steady advantage, allowing them to secure favorable early positioning without expending too much energy. On the turf course, early speed is less dominant, with mid-pack stalkers and tactical closers finding fair success, especially over the route distances. The turf course has been playing fairly overall, without any glaring biases, rewarding horses that can navigate traffic and deliver a sustained late run down the stretch. We will proceed assuming the track will play evenly but give a slight edge to early tactical speed on the dirt sprints.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time

12:35 PM

Pace Analysis

The opening race is a six-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. The pace should be honest but not overly taxing. Khozanall and That Thing You Do have shown enough early foot to contest the lead from the inside posts. Starship Kit Kat might also inject some early speed. Expect Marty's Gal and Queen of Spirits to secure ideal stalking trips just behind the first flight.

Key Contenders

Marty's Gal looks primed for a solid effort in this spot. Dropping slightly in class and drawing a favorable outside post, she should get a clean trip stalking the early speed. Queen of Spirits has been knocking on the door in similar maiden claiming company and possesses the tactical speed to keep the leaders in her sights.

Secondary Choices

Red Hot Catalina has decent back class and could be a factor if she finds her best stride late. That Thing You Do will try to take them as far as she can on the engine and could hold on for a share if left alone on the lead.

Longshots

E Complicato has been inconsistent but shows occasional flashes of ability. If the pace completely melts down, she might be picking up the pieces at a price.

Consensus Picks

Handicappers generally agree that Marty's Gal and Queen of Spirits are the primary logical choices in this opening event. Red Hot Catalina is the widely accepted alternative for exotic wagers.

Selections

Win: Marty's Gal (6) – 40% confidence

Place: Queen Of Spirits (5) – 30% confidence

Show: Red Hot Catalina (3) – 20% confidence

Alternative: That Thing You Do (1) – 10% confidence

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time

01:05 PM

Pace Analysis

This six and a half furlong test for three-year-old fillies features several lightly raced runners. Ez Yours and Love of J look to possess the most natural early speed and will likely dispute the pace from the bell. Sagcy should settle in mid-pack and watch the duel develop ahead of her.

Key Contenders

Sagcy stands out based on her recent speed figures and ability to close effectively. If the leaders tire each other out, she is best positioned to capitalize. Rules for Three drops into a very winnable spot today and has flashed enough talent to suggest she belongs in the winner's circle against this level of competition.

Secondary Choices

Love of J has the early foot to be dangerous if she can secure an uncontested lead. Ez Yours is another pace presence who could stick around for a minor award if the track is playing kindly to front runners.

Longshots

Guavaberry takes a significant weight allowance with the apprentice rider and could surprise if she can carry her speed a bit further today.

Consensus Picks

Public handicappers have settled on Sagcy as the one to beat, with Rules for Three and Love of J receiving the bulk of the remaining attention.

Selections

Win: Sagcy (2) – 45% confidence

Place: Rules For Three (4) – 30% confidence

Show: Love Of J (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Ez Yours (1) – 10% confidence

Race 3 – Claiming

Post Time

01:36 PM

Pace Analysis

With three scratches decimating this five and a half furlong sprint, the pace scenario changes drastically. Mendello and Awesome Fantasy are now the primary speed threats and will likely lock horns early. This sets up nicely for a stalker to sit just off their flanks.

Key Contenders

Awesome Fantasy brings the most consistent recent form into this short field. He can contest the pace or sit just off it, making him a versatile threat. Harper's Afleet is the logical beneficiary of any early speed duel, as his late kick will be amplified in a smaller field where he won't have to navigate as much traffic.

Secondary Choices

Mendello has the raw speed to take this wire to wire if Awesome Fantasy fails to apply pressure. He must be respected on the front end.

Longshots

Kalinba is a veteran runner who would need a complete collapse from the top three to find the winner's circle, but he could sneak into the bottom of the exotics by default.

Consensus Picks

Handicappers overwhelmingly favor Awesome Fantasy in this reduced field, followed closely by the closing threat of Harper's Afleet.

Selections

Win: Awesome Fantasy (5) – 45% confidence

Place: Harper's Afleet (4) – 35% confidence

Show: Mendello (3) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Kalinba (6) – 5% confidence

Race 4 – Claiming

Post Time

02:07 PM

Pace Analysis

This mile and a sixteenth turf route features a massive field, guaranteeing a scramble for early position heading into the first turn. Makoa and Tigre look to be the primary pace setters. Expect a solid tempo that should eventually benefit the mid-pack stalkers and late closers.

Key Contenders

Makoa is incredibly consistent at hitting the board and has tactical speed that keeps him out of trouble. Endless Reign has the class to handle this group and is poised for a strong late run under a top jockey. Tigre represents the true speed of the race and could take them all the way if he clears the field comfortably.

Secondary Choices

Two's a Crowd has excellent tactical positioning and could get first run on the tiring leaders. Toro Forward is another seasoned turf router who fits nicely at this claiming tag and should be flying late.

Longshots

Lake Chapala has been competitive at longer odds recently and could blow up the tote board if he gets a clean trip from off the pace.

Consensus Picks

The consensus among handicappers points toward a battle between Makoa and Tigre, with Endless Reign respected as the premier late threat.

Selections

Win: Makoa (7) – 35% confidence

Place: Tigre (9) – 30% confidence

Show: Endless Reign (1) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Two's A Crowd (2) – 15% confidence

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time

02:38 PM

Pace Analysis

In this seven-furlong dirt sprint, early position will be critical. Great Hunt and Fly Commander are the quickest from the gate and should establish the tempo. Firstflashofmoon and Uncle Zeb will likely settle into the second flight, waiting to launch their bids around the far turn.

Key Contenders

Fly Commander has shown incremental improvement in recent starts and looks ready to graduate. He should get an ideal stalking trip. Great Hunt has the class edge and early speed to wire the field if the track is playing favorably to front runners.

Secondary Choices

Firstflashofmoon has disappointed as the favorite before but fits this level well. Uncle Zeb has a decent closing kick and could pick up the pieces if the early fractions are too hot.

Longshots

Dave Did It takes a weight break and could spice up the exotics at a massive price if he can run back to his best previous efforts.

Consensus Picks

Handicappers view Fly Commander and Great Hunt as the main protagonists here, with Firstflashofmoon considered a must-use in multi-race wagers.

Selections

Win: Fly Commander (9) – 40% confidence

Place: Great Hunt (2) – 30% confidence

Show: Firstflashofmoon (4) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Uncle Zeb (1) – 10% confidence

Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time

03:09 PM

Pace Analysis

The feature race is a competitive one-mile turf route for three-year-old fillies. With Vanish and Golden Beach scratched, the pace dynamics shift. I've Got the Honey and Go Mischievous are likely to duel early, establishing a moderate to fast pace. Permian Basin and Abigail will sit right behind them, tracking the speed.

Key Contenders

Abigail ships in with strong credentials and looks poised for a massive effort. Her tactical speed should place her perfectly behind the pacesetters. I've Got the Honey represents a powerhouse barn and has the pedigree to excel over the turf course at this distance.

Secondary Choices

Permian Basin is a very dangerous stalker who will get first run at the leaders at the top of the stretch. Go Mischievous is tough on the lead and could hold on for a minor award if not pressured too intensely.

Longshots

Flowko has a nice late turn of foot and could pass tired horses late to complete the superfecta at a generous price.

Consensus Picks

The handicapping community is heavily leaning toward Abigail taking the prize, utilizing I've Got the Honey and Permian Basin as the primary backup options.

Selections

Win: Abigail (4) – 40% confidence

Place: I've Got The Honey (2) – 30% confidence

Show: Permian Basin (7) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Go Mischievous (3) – 10% confidence

Race 7 – Claiming

Post Time

03:39 PM

Pace Analysis

This six and a half furlong dash features hard-knocking older claimers. Secret Treasure and Homer Jones are rapid early and will ensure a swift pace. This contested early speed will likely set things up for a horse coming from off the pace.

Key Contenders

Rebel Empire is a veteran closer who excels at this distance. The expected fast pace should play right into his hands. Bang a Rang drops in class and possesses enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance before launching a late bid.

Secondary Choices

Secret Treasure is very dangerous if he manages to shake clear of the other speed horses early. Homer Jones is capable of a front-running victory but may face too much pressure today.

Longshots

Litigant is an older warhorse who knows where the wire is. He could clunk up for third or fourth if the race falls apart completely.

Consensus Picks

Handicappers are banking on the pace falling apart, making Rebel Empire the top choice, with Bang a Rang selected as the main alternative.

Selections

Win: Rebel Empire (1) – 40% confidence

Place: Bang A Rang (7) – 30% confidence

Show: Secret Treasure (3) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Homer Jones (2) – 10% confidence

Race 8 – Claiming

Post Time

04:09 PM

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a one-mile turf route that has been heavily affected by scratches. Calvino and Dancing Bear are the controlling speed of the remaining field. They will likely lead the procession into the first turn, with Cousin Ed and J Squared tracking patiently mid-pack.

Key Contenders

Calvino looks tough to catch based on the revised pace scenario. If he gets an easy lead, he can wire this group. Cousin Ed has strong closing fractions and will benefit greatly if Dancing Bear decides to push Calvino early.

Secondary Choices

J Squared is a consistent performer who always seems to find the board. Dancing Bear must be caught and will be dangerous if left alone on the front end.

Longshots

Deportivo is an interesting price play who could run into the exotics with a well-timed ride from off the pace.

Consensus Picks

Handicappers see this as a battle of attrition between Calvino and Cousin Ed, with J Squared filling out the tri-boxes.

Selections

Win: Calvino (3) – 40% confidence

Place: Cousin Ed (8) – 30% confidence

Show: J Squared (9) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Dancing Bear (2) – 10% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Samy Camacho remains a dominant force at Tampa Bay Downs and must be respected on any mount, particularly when riding for top barns in turf routes. Samuel Marin has shown excellent timing on the turf course and is a strong asset for mid-pack stalkers. Sonny Leon brings aggressive, calculated rides to the dirt sprints and can often coax extra effort out of claiming horses. Cipriano Gil is another rider displaying sharp form right now and merits attention when riding speed horses.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Mark E. Casse is always a threat with his turf runners, particularly fillies, and his entries in the allowance ranks are usually well-meant and fit. Kathleen O'Connell is highly effective with dirt sprinters and claiming types, making her runners dangerous at a price. Michael Dini has been having a solid meet and spots his horses accurately. When evaluating dropping claimers, pay close attention to the moves made by Jon G. Arnett and Gerard Ochoa.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 1 looks challenging but rewarding. Singling Awesome Fantasy in the scratched-down third race could provide the leverage needed to spread in the deeper turf races like Race 4 and Race 8. In Race 4, using Makoa and Tigre heavily in exactas could provide value, while fading the likely favorite in Race 7 in favor of the closer Rebel Empire represents a strong stand-alone wagering angle. The best value play of the day comes in Race 8, where Calvino's odds should drift higher than his actual chances of wiring the field following the multitude of scratches. Consider building double wagers pairing Rebel Empire in the seventh with Calvino in the eighth.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback