Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Tampa Bay Downs opens its Friday card with a nine-race program featuring a mix of claiming, starter optional claiming, allowance optional claiming, starter allowance, and maiden claiming events. The card begins at 12:35 PM ET and runs through an estimated final post of 4:40 PM ET. Purses range from $20,500 (Race 3) to $55,500 (Race 6), with a solid mix of dirt sprints, dirt routes, and turf routes that should provide quality wagering opportunities throughout the day.
Today also marks the kickoff of the High Rollers Handicapping Contest, running February 20-21, adding extra energy to the facility. The card features two turf races (Races 5 and 7) and a closing turf route (Race 9), all subject to potential transfer to the main track if conditions deteriorate.
The scratch watch shows several horses flagged for possible scratches. Develop Product (3, Race 1) was scratched by Stewards and Veterinarian in recent starts. Sherman Fury (6, Race 1) was an also-eligible and may not draw in. Duck Duck Goose (3, Race 2) was scratched by Stewards in a recent entry. I’m Mischievous (6, Race 2) has a Veterinarian scratch flag. Mongolian Champ (7, Race 3) is an also-eligible. In Race 9, Zapata (1), Ode to Balius (2), and Overhaul (7) all have multiple recent also-eligible and scratch flags. Players should monitor scratches closely before finalizing wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Oldsmar, Florida calls for a warm day with a high near 84 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 62 degrees. Skies should be mostly cloudy with winds around 5 mph and only an 11 percent chance of precipitation. This is a significant warm-up from recent weeks and should produce a fast, dry main track surface.
With minimal rain expected and comfortable humidity levels, the dirt surface should play fast and firm. The turf course, with the rail set at 30 feet for today’s card, should also play in good condition. Handicappers should anticipate a conventional fast strip that rewards speed and tactical placement. The warm conditions may slightly favor horses that handle heat well, though the low wind should keep the track consistent throughout the day.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Tampa Bay Downs is generally considered one of the fairer tracks in the country, but identifiable biases have emerged during the 2025-2026 meet.
In dirt sprints, early speed has been the dominant running style, winning approximately 49 percent of races through the meet. In the most recent week of racing, early speed went 5-for-10, reclaiming the advantage from stalkers. Posts 1 through 3 continue to hold a meaningful advantage in sprints, winning roughly 45 percent of the time. Stalkers remain competitive and cannot be dismissed, but the data clearly favors horses who can secure a forward position early, especially when drawn inside.
In dirt routes, early runners have won approximately 44 percent of races, with inside posts 1 through 3 winning at a 50 percent clip. Posts 4 through 6 are close behind at 40 percent, making outside posts a genuine disadvantage in two-turn dirt races. This is critical for today’s Race 3, Race 4, and Race 6, all run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
On the turf, stalkers have been the dominant running style at Tampa Bay Downs, winning at a 43 percent rate in turf routes. This has been a consistent bias for several weeks. In the most recent week of racing at comparable turf-course tracks, stalkers continued their dominance, going 6-for-8 in turf routes. Closers can still get in, but horses that sit just off the pace and make a mid-stretch move have a built-in edge. This is particularly relevant for Races 5, 7, and 9 today.
Race 1 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,300
Post Time: 12:35 PM ET
Six-horse field of four-year-olds and upward that have never won three races. Claiming price $25,000. A compact sprint field with several horses showing early speed, which should produce a contested pace scenario.
Pace Analysis
This race sets up with a strong early speed bias. R N R Audible (1) is typed as a fast leader and draws the rail, an ideal scenario given the track’s inside-post advantage in dirt sprints. Develop Product (3) also shows a fast leader profile, while Troops (4) is the fastest lead type in the field. Sebastianthe First (5) stalks from just off the pace. With three potential front-runners, the pace should be moderately contested, which could set up Sebastianthe First (5) as a stalker to take advantage.
Key Contenders
Sebastianthe First (5) is the consensus top selection at a morning line of 3/2. Trained by Jose H. Delgado and ridden by Samy Camacho, this five-year-old gelding has career earnings of $344,266 and a stalking style that fits the pace scenario. His last start was a third-place finish at 7 furlongs on this track, and two back he won at 7 furlongs here. The cutback to 6 furlongs should be fine with his tactical speed, and the Camacho-Delgado connection is strong. The 33 percent win profile prediction is the highest in the field.
Develop Product (3) drew a morning line of 2/1 and is listed as the second choice. His last win came at 6 furlongs at this track, and trainer Ralph N. Baez has an impressive 40 percent win rate at the current meet. Jockey Samuel Marin is the leading rider at the meet with a 21 percent win rate. However, this horse has a stewards scratch flag from a recent entry, so monitor his status.
Secondary Choices
R N R Audible (1) at 5/1 draws the advantageous rail in a dirt sprint and has a front-running style that fits the track bias. His second-place finish two starts back at 6 furlongs here suggests he can be competitive. Jockey Alonso Quinonez has a 19 percent win rate at the meet.
Troops (4) at 9/2 morning line shows a fastest-leads profile and has won once from 13 career starts. He flashed ability two back with a win at 6 furlongs here, though his last was a dull seventh. He is an inconsistent type but has the speed figures to contend.
Longshots
Sherman Fury (6) at 15/1 ships in from Gulfstream Park and has a 22 percent career win rate from nine starts. However, his recent form is poor, and the also-eligible flag raises concerns about whether he draws into the race. Use cautiously underneath in exotics.
Betting Strategy
The short field limits exotic payouts. A win bet on Sebastianthe First (5) backed by an exacta box of 5-3-1 provides solid coverage. If Develop Product (3) scratches, R N R Audible (1) becomes the clear alternative at better odds.
Selections
Win: 5 Sebastianthe First
Place: 3 Develop Product
Show: 1 R N R Audible
Race 2 — Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $30,500
Post Time: 1:05 PM ET
Seven three-year-olds sprinting 7 furlongs on the dirt for a $16,000 claiming tag. Several promising young runners make their Tampa debut, creating an interesting wagering puzzle.
Pace Analysis
This race features a contested pace scenario with multiple speed types. I’m Mischievous (6) and El Orejon (7) are both typed as fast leaders, while W W Star (2) is a front-running type. If I Can Dream (5) is the fastest stalker in the field and should sit a perfect tracking trip behind the speed duel. Gray Beast (4) is a mid-pack stalker who could also benefit if the pace gets hot up front.
Key Contenders
If I Can Dream (5) is the consensus top pick at a morning line of 3/2. Trained by Saffie A. Joseph Jr. (18 percent win rate) and ridden by Samy Camacho (25 percent win rate), this Gulfstream Park shipper won his last start at 6 furlongs at GP and has a fastest-stalker profile that fits the expected pace scenario perfectly. The Joseph-Camacho combination is one of the most potent at the meet, and the weight allowance at 119 pounds is a benefit.
El Orejon (7) at 5/2 morning line is the other major contender. Ridden by Samuel Marin and trained by Jose A. Gallegos, this gelding won one back at 7 furlongs at Tampa and was second in his most recent start at 6 furlongs here. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs benefits his fast-leader style, and the Marin-Gallegos connection has a strong 19 percent win rate.
Secondary Choices
I’m Mischievous (6) at 9/2 won his last start at 6.5 furlongs at Tampa and shows a fast-leads running style. Trainer Michael Dini has a 20 percent win rate and jockey Cipriano Gil is winning at 19 percent. However, the horse has a veterinarian scratch flag from a recent entry, so monitor his status.
W W Star (2) at 6/1 has a 25 percent career win rate and was third last out at 6 furlongs here. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs and the front-running style could benefit from the dirt sprint speed bias.
Longshots
Moral Power (1) at 12/1 won his last start at Tampa going a mile and forty yards on the dirt. He cuts back to 7 furlongs today, which could be a slight concern, but his recent Tampa win at this level gives him a look in exotics. Gray Beast (4) at 12/1 won one back at Tampa going a mile and forty yards and was second two back at 7 furlongs here.
Betting Strategy
If I Can Dream (5) looks vulnerable at short odds given that this is his first start at Tampa, and the 7-furlong distance is new for him. An exacta keying El Orejon (7) on top of 5-6-2 could produce solid value. Use Moral Power (1) and Gray Beast (4) underneath in trifectas.
Selections
Win: 5 If I Can Dream
Place: 7 El Orejon
Show: 6 I’m Mischievous
Race 3 — Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $20,500
Post Time: 1:36 PM ET
Eight-horse field of four-year-olds and upward that have never won two races, going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for an $8,000 claiming tag. This is the weakest race on the card from a talent standpoint, with registered Florida-breds preferred.
Pace Analysis
Tiztimonial (6) recently won at 1 1/16 miles on this dirt surface and profiles as a mid-pack closer. Tony B (4) and Mongolian Champ (7) are both typed as fast stalkers. My Lucky Angel (1) is a fast-deep type who draws the rail but may need to use speed to maintain position. The pace should be moderate, as there is no pure front-runner in the field, which could favor tactical types.
Key Contenders
Tony B (4) is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and the consensus pick. This four-year-old colt has a 25 percent career win rate from four starts and was third last out going a mile and forty yards on the dirt here. Trainer Daniel Damen is a new name at Tampa, but the horse’s fast-stalker profile fits the two-turn dirt bias favoring forward placement. Jockey Marcos Meneses has a solid presence at the meet.
Tiztimonial (6) at 5/1 is the only horse in the field coming off a win, having scored at 1 1/16 miles on this track. Two back he was second at a mile and forty yards here. Jockey Julio C. Mera won on this horse last time and the mid-pack closer style could benefit from any pace pressure up front. Trainer Jose H. Delgado keeps his runners competitive.
Secondary Choices
Mongolian Champ (7) at 4/1 has the highest career earnings ($86,620) in the field and an impressive 47 percent in-the-money rate from 19 starts. His fastest-stalker profile is a fit for the track bias, though his 5 percent win rate is a concern. Note that he is flagged as an also-eligible and may not draw into the race.
My Lucky Angel (1) at 2/1 morning line draws the rail in a dirt route, which aligns with the inside-post advantage. However, his 8 percent career win rate and deep-running style make him questionable as the favorite. Trainer Gerald S. Bennett has a 50 percent win rate at the meet, which is notable.
Longshots
King Reigert (3) at 12/1 has a 17 percent career win rate and 42 percent in-the-money rate. He has placed consistently at this level and the Kevin Rice barn is winning at a 33 percent clip. An upset here is not out of the question.
Betting Strategy
This is a wide-open race with plenty of value potential. Tony B (4) and Tiztimonial (6) should be keyed in exactas both ways. Spread in the trifecta using 4-6 over 4-6-7-1-3 over all for a shot at a price payoff.
Selections
Win: 4 Tony B
Place: 6 Tiztimonial
Show: 7 Mongolian Champ
Race 4 — Starter Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $28,000
Post Time: 2:06 PM ET
Eight-horse field of four-year-olds and upward going two turns on the dirt. Starter optional claiming conditions with a $12,500 tag. Florida-breds preferred.
Pace Analysis
The Best Distance (8) profiles as the fastest leader in the field with outstanding recent form. El Chispazo (3) is also a fast leader with a 31 percent career win rate. With two legitimate speed types, the pace should be contested early, which could set up stalkers Embrace My Uncle (5) and Triple Pass (4). The inside-post bias in dirt routes favors El Chispazo from post 3.
Key Contenders
The Best Distance (8) is the consensus top selection at 9/5 morning line. This eight-year-old veteran has career earnings of $411,575 and a 28 percent career win rate from 43 starts. He won his last start at 1 1/16 miles at Tampa and was third two back going a mile and forty yards here. Jockey Cipriano Gil rides for trainer Jose A. Gallegos. The concern is the outside post in a dirt route, where the bias favors inside posts.
El Chispazo (3) at 2/1 morning line has a 31 percent career win rate and was second last out at 1 1/16 miles at Tampa after winning at this distance two starts back. Jockey Sonny Leon has a 12 percent win rate at the meet, and the post-3 draw is ideal for the inside-post bias in dirt routes. Trainer Maria Bowersock keeps this horse competitive at this level.
Secondary Choices
Embrace My Uncle (5) at 4/1 has a 14 percent career win rate but an impressive 50 percent in-the-money rate from 36 starts. He won one back at 1 1/16 miles at Tampa. Jockey Cesar Gonzalez takes the mount at an attractive 113 pounds, giving this veteran a weight advantage. His fast-stalker style should benefit if the pace gets hot.
Triple Pass (4) at 12/1 has a 13 percent win rate but a 48 percent in-the-money rate from 23 starts. He was third two back going a mile and forty yards here. The fast-stalker style and moderate odds make him an attractive piece for exotics.
Longshots
Jades Jay (6) at 10/1 was second in two of his last three starts at Tampa going a mile and forty yards. Jockey Samuel Marin has a 25 percent win rate and could get this horse into a good stalking position. Style Me Royal (7) at 10/1 has a 31 percent career win rate from 26 starts but has been struggling in recent form.
Betting Strategy
The Best Distance (8) and El Chispazo (3) are the clear top two, but the value play is El Chispazo from the advantageous inside post at a slightly longer price. Key El Chispazo (3) on top of exactas over 8-5-4, and use The Best Distance (8) in a trifecta key underneath.
Selections
Win: 8 The Best Distance
Place: 3 El Chispazo
Show: 5 Embrace My Uncle
Race 5 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $31,000
Post Time: 2:37 PM ET
Eight-horse field of four-year-olds and upward going one mile on the turf. Rail set at 30 feet. This race could be moved to the main track at one mile and forty yards if conditions warrant.
Pace Analysis
Eldest Son (4) is the fastest leads type in the field and figures to dictate terms from the front. Double Neat (8) is a mid-pack leads type, and Noble Factor (6) runs a fast-deep style. The stalker bias on Tampa turf is critical here. Rigel (1) runs a mid-pack leader style and Crumlin Lad (5) is a fast stalker, both profiles that fit the dominant running style on this course.
Key Contenders
Eldest Son (4) at 5/2 morning line is a class standout with career earnings of $981,138 and a 27 percent win rate from 48 starts. He won his most recent start at one mile on the Tampa turf and was third two back at 1 1/16 miles on this turf. Jockey Samy Camacho and trainer Michael V. Simone give him a strong connections edge. His fastest-leads profile has worked consistently at this level, even against the stalker bias.
Rigel (1) at 3/1 is the other consensus pick and draws the rail. This six-year-old has career earnings of $363,670 and a 33 percent career win rate. He was second two starts back at 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa turf and won at 1 1/16 miles on turf three starts ago. Jockey Samuel Marin has been the leading rider at the meet. The mid-pack leader style fits the stalker bias on turf.
Secondary Choices
Noble Factor (6) at 4/1 morning line has a remarkable 85 percent in-the-money rate from 13 career starts. He won his last start at one mile on the Tampa turf and won at 1 1/16 miles on turf two back. His fast-deep running style could benefit from a contested pace up front. Jockey Antonio A. Gallardo has a 21 percent win rate at the meet.
Crumlin Lad (5) at 9/2 has career earnings of $702,397 and a 58 percent in-the-money rate from 33 starts. He was third last out at one mile on the Tampa turf. The fast-stalker style is a direct match for the dominant turf bias.
Longshots
Double Neat (8) at 5/1 has won two of his last three starts including victories at Gulfstream Park on turf. However, he has a veterinarian scratch flag from a recent entry. If he runs, his mid-pack leads style could be very effective in a pace-contested scenario.
Uncle Truly (7) at 12/1 has career earnings of $348,660 and a 21 percent career win rate. His mid-pack stalker style fits the turf bias, and jockey Sonny Leon could get him into a tactical position.
Betting Strategy
This is a deep, competitive race. Eldest Son (4) and Rigel (1) are the top two, but Noble Factor (6) offers outstanding value given his elite in-the-money rate. An exacta box of 4-1-6 provides strong coverage, and a trifecta keying 4-1 on top over 4-1-6-5-8 over all could yield a solid payoff.
Selections
Win: 1 Rigel
Place: 4 Eldest Son
Show: 6 Noble Factor
Race 6 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $55,500
Post Time: 3:07 PM ET
The feature race on the card, a seven-horse field of fillies and mares four years old and upward going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. This is the highest-purse race of the day at $55,500 with an optional $16,000 claiming tag.
Pace Analysis
Tortuga Island (5) is a fast leads type with a dominant 32 percent career win rate. C C Girl (4) is the slowest leads type, suggesting she will try to contest the pace from the front. The early speed bias in dirt routes should favor Tortuga Island (5) if she can clear to the lead without excessive pressure. Wits and Wagers (6) runs a fast-deep style and Mi Amore (3) is the fastest stalker.
Key Contenders
Tortuga Island (5) is the consensus top pick at 3/2 morning line. This five-year-old mare has an outstanding 32 percent career win rate from 31 starts with earnings of $228,940. She won her last start at Tampa going a mile and forty yards on the dirt and was second in the same conditions two starts back. Jockey Samy Camacho and trainer Juan Arriagada are a strong combination, and the fast-leads running style matches the dirt route bias perfectly.
Wits and Wagers (6) at 5/2 morning line has the highest career earnings in the field at $407,490. She was fourth last out at Tampa going a mile and forty yards and has shipped in from Churchill Downs where she was third in her two prior starts. Jockey Samuel Marin has a 25 percent win rate, and the fast-deep style could benefit if Tortuga Island (5) sets a contested pace.
Secondary Choices
Mi Amore (3) at 3/1 has a 17 percent win rate and a 48 percent in-the-money rate from 23 starts. She was third last out at Tampa going a mile and forty yards and has run competitively at higher levels at Gulfstream Park. Her fastest-stalker style is ideal for sitting just behind the pace. Jockey Antonio A. Gallardo has been reliable at the meet.
Kuku (1) at 6/1 draws the rail, which provides a significant advantage in dirt routes. She was second last out at Tampa and won three starts back at 7 furlongs here. Trainer Kevin Rice has a 33 percent win rate at the meet. The inside-post bias makes her live at an attractive price.
Longshots
My Little Wildcat (7) at 10/1 won her last start on the turf at Tampa and was second at 7 furlongs on dirt two back. The move from turf to dirt at a longer distance is a concern, but the 53 percent in-the-money rate suggests she consistently runs competitive races.
Betting Strategy
Tortuga Island (5) deserves strong support as the class of the field in the feature race. An exacta keying 5 on top of 6-3-1 provides coverage, and a trifecta of 5 over 6-3-1 over 6-3-1-7 should be considered. Kuku (1) at 6/1 from the rail is the best value play in the race.
Selections
Win: 5 Tortuga Island
Place: 6 Wits and Wagers
Show: 3 Mi Amore
Race 7 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $23,000
Post Time: 3:38 PM ET
A 14-horse field of maiden fillies and mares four years old and upward going one mile on the turf for a $16,000 claiming tag. Large fields on turf at Tampa can produce long prices, making this an attractive wagering race for exotic players.
Pace Analysis
With 14 horses entered, post position becomes critical. She’s That Girl (7) shows a fast-leader profile, and several others will want forward positions. The turf stalker bias at Tampa should be the guiding principle here. D’argento Bolt (5), Forget Tomorrow (2), and Curlina Star (9) all show stalking profiles that fit the dominant turf running style. Closers will have a long way to come in this field, but the size of the field could cause traffic problems for deep closers.
Key Contenders
D’argento Bolt (5) at 2/1 morning line is the consensus choice despite having never won. She has the highest career earnings ($99,065) among horses that have shown competitive form, with a 33 percent in-the-money rate from 15 starts. She was second last out at one mile on the Tampa turf and second at one mile on turf at Gulfstream two starts back. Jockey Cipriano Gil and trainer Gerard Ochoa are paired, and the fast-stalker style is a direct match for the turf bias.
Go K J Go (3) at 3/1 has a 67 percent in-the-money rate from just three starts. She was third at one mile on Tampa turf two starts back and second at 7 furlongs on dirt here. Her fastest-closer style could benefit from the large field creating pace pressure up front. However, closers need to overcome the stalker bias on turf.
Secondary Choices
Too Much Fun (4) at 6/1 is the Racing Dudes consensus pick. She has yet to hit the board in six starts, but the fast-closer profile and jockey Samuel Marin (21 percent win rate) could make a difference. Trainer William E. Deaton has a 17 percent win rate. The concern is the 0-for-6 career record with no top-three finishes.
Forget Tomorrow (2) at 8/1 has a fastest-stalker profile that directly fits the turf bias. She was fifth in two consecutive starts at one mile on Tampa turf and was second at 1 1/16 miles on dirt here. Jockey Daniel Centeno has a 13 percent win rate and is a consistent presence at the meet.
Longshots
Yammy Yammy Bella (1) at 10/1 has the highest career earnings in the field at $235,300 from 26 starts, though she remains a maiden. Her mid-pack stalker style fits the turf bias, and the rail draw could be advantageous. Curlina Star (9) at 12/1 was second last out on the dirt at Tampa and has a 40 percent in-the-money rate from 10 starts. Her fast-stalker profile is a fit for the turf bias.
Sexpectations (11) at 15/1 draws outside but has experience on turf at other venues. She was second on turf at another track and has a mid-pack closer profile that could get into the mix if chaos erupts.
Betting Strategy
This is the best exotic wagering race on the card. The large field and maiden conditions guarantee uncertainty. D’argento Bolt (5) is the rightful favorite but is vulnerable in a 14-horse maiden field. A trifecta using 5-3-4 over 5-3-4-2-1-9 over all should be considered. A Pick 3 starting here through Race 9 is also an attractive play. Use D’argento Bolt (5) and Go K J Go (3) as the top two, with Too Much Fun (4) and Forget Tomorrow (2) as primary backups.
Selections
Win: 5 D’argento Bolt
Place: 3 Go K J Go
Show: 4 Too Much Fun
Race 8 — Starter Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $36,500
Post Time: 4:09 PM ET
Eight three-year-old fillies sprinting 7 furlongs on the dirt. Starter optional claiming conditions with a $25,000 tag. Florida-breds preferred.
Pace Analysis
Questnbled’cisions (5) shows a mid-pack leads running style and figures to be positioned near the front. Ridgie (1) is the fastest stalker from the rail. La Chismosa (6) is a mid-pack leader. Coqueta Blue (3) is the slowest leads type and Authentic Wave (7) is a mid-pack stalker. With no pure speed horse likely to gun to the lead, the pace should be moderate, which could favor forwardly placed types.
Key Contenders
Questnbled’cisions (5) is the consensus top pick at 2/1 morning line. She has a 33 percent career win rate from six starts, winning her last two starts at 6.5 and 7 furlongs at Tampa. Jockey Daniel Centeno has a 19 percent win rate and trainer Gerald S. Bennett has a 13 percent win rate at the meet. Her mid-pack leads style should have her well positioned early, and the back-to-back wins suggest peaking form.
Authentic Wave (7) at 5/2 has a 33 percent career win rate and an 83 percent in-the-money rate from six starts. She was second last out at 6.5 furlongs at Tampa and won her two prior starts at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Jockey Samuel Marin (24 percent win rate) and trainer Steve Klesaris (29 percent win rate, 86 percent ITM rate) form a potent combination.
Secondary Choices
Ridgie (1) at 4/1 has the best recent form in the field with a 50 percent career win rate and an 83 percent in-the-money rate from six starts. She draws the rail, which aligns with the inside-post advantage in dirt sprints. Jockey Sonny Leon has a 10 percent win rate at the meet. The fastest-stalker profile from post 1 gives her a prime tactical position.
La Chismosa (6) at 6/1 has a 25 percent win rate and a 75 percent in-the-money rate from four starts. She was second last out at 6 furlongs at Tampa after winning at 5.5 furlongs here. Jockey Samy Camacho (25 percent win rate) and trainer Renaldo Richards (42 percent win rate) are a strong combination.
Longshots
Coqueta Blue (3) at 8/1 won her last start at 7 furlongs at Tampa and has a 29 percent career win rate. Trained by Antonio Sano (11 percent win rate), she is a slowest-leads type who could benefit if the pace is slow.
Justamomentplease (2) at 10/1 won one back at 6 furlongs at Tampa and has a 33 percent career win rate from three starts. The stretch from 6 furlongs to 7 is the concern, but jockey Cipriano Gil (19 percent win rate) and the inside post give her a chance.
Betting Strategy
This is a very competitive race with several live contenders. Questnbled’cisions (5) and Authentic Wave (7) are the top two, but Ridgie (1) from the rail and La Chismosa (6) provide value. An exacta box of 5-7-1 covers the main contenders, and a trifecta using 5-7 over 5-7-1-6 over all provides depth.
Selections
Win: 5 Questnbled’cisions
Place: 7 Authentic Wave
Show: 1 Ridgie
Race 9 — Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $25,300
Post Time: 4:40 PM ET
The closing race features a 10-horse field going 1 1/16 miles on the turf for a $25,000 claiming tag. Rail at 30 feet. This is a quality closing event with several experienced turf runners.
Pace Analysis
Souper Attentive (10) is the fastest leader and figures to try to control the pace from the outside. Persisten (6) is a fast closer, while Tok Tok (8) is the fastest stalker. Specialagentjonson (3) shows a fast-deep style. The critical angle here is the stalker bias on Tampa turf. Tok Tok (8) and Trackster (5) have stalking profiles that should benefit from the turf configuration. Souper Attentive (10) will need to overcome the outside post and the stalker bias to win on the lead.
Key Contenders
Tok Tok (8) at 5/2 morning line is the consensus pick by handicappers. Trained by H. Graham Motion (21 percent win rate) and ridden by Charlie Marquez, this five-year-old gelding has career earnings of $302,300. He was second two starts back at one mile on Tampa turf. His fastest-stalker profile is a direct match for the dominant turf bias at the meet. The Motion barn is a premier turf operation.
Souper Attentive (10) at 3/1 morning line is trained by Mark E. Casse and has the highest career earnings in the field at $472,960. He won his last turf start at one mile at Gulfstream Park. However, his fastest-leader profile runs against the stalker bias, and the post-10 draw is a significant disadvantage. Jockey Sonny Leon has an 11 percent win rate at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Persisten (6) at 9/2 won his last start at one mile on the Tampa turf and was second in his two prior starts at the same distance. Jockey Samuel Marin has been dominant with a 28 percent win rate. The fast-closer profile is not an ideal match for the stalker bias, but the recent form cycle — 1-2-2 in his last three — is outstanding.
Magic Heart (9) at 6/1 was second in two consecutive starts at one mile on the Tampa turf. His fastest-closer style has been consistently hitting the board, and career earnings of $207,298 confirm his ability. Jockey Marcos Meneses is capable at this level.
Longshots
Trackster (5) at 10/1 won his last start at 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa turf and was second two back at the same distance. His mid-pack leader style fits the stalker bias, and trainer Joseph F. Orseno has an excellent 28 percent win rate at the meet. Jockey Israel O. Rodriguez is aboard. This horse represents the best longshot value on the card.
Specialagentjonson (3) at 6/1 has a 62 percent in-the-money rate from 21 career starts. He was third last out at one mile on the Tampa turf and second at 1 1/16 miles two back. Jockey Samy Camacho adds appeal. His fast-deep style is competitive here.
Betting Strategy
The closing race offers the deepest wagering opportunities on the card. Tok Tok (8), Persisten (6), and Trackster (5) all have strong recent Tampa turf form. Key Tok Tok (8) and Persisten (6) in exactas, and use Trackster (5) as a value spread in trifectas. The Pick 3 from Race 7 through Race 9 is the best multi-race play on the card.
Selections
Win: 8 Tok Tok
Place: 6 Persisten
Show: 5 Trackster
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samy Camacho is the dominant rider on this card with mounts in six races (Races 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, and 9). He has a 25 percent win rate at the meet (Race 2 data confirms this from 61 mounts) and a 57 percent in-the-money rate. His mounts include several favorites: Sebastianthe First (5, Race 1), If I Can Dream (5, Race 2), Eldest Son (4, Race 5), Tortuga Island (5, Race 6), and La Chismosa (6, Race 8). Camacho has been the go-to rider for the top stables at the meet, including the Saffie Joseph Jr. and Jose Delgado barns.
Samuel Marin is the leading rider at the meet with a 21-24 percent win rate and has six mounts today (Races 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 area). His 55-61 percent in-the-money rate is exceptional. Key mounts include Develop Product (3, Race 1), Rigel (1, Race 5), Wits and Wagers (6, Race 6 area), Too Much Fun (4, Race 7), and Authentic Wave (7, Race 8).
Cipriano Gil has a 19 percent win rate from 43-74 mounts and rides in several races today. His key mounts include The Best Distance (8, Race 4), D’argento Bolt (5, Race 7), and Justamomentplease (2, Race 8). Gil has been particularly effective in claiming races at the lower levels.
Sonny Leon has a 10-12 percent win rate but a 34-52 percent in-the-money rate, making him a consistent place-and-show threat. Key mounts include Duck Duck Goose (3, Race 2), El Chispazo (3, Race 4), Ridgie (1, Race 8), and Souper Attentive (10, Race 9).
Israel O. Rodriguez has a 14-19 percent win rate at the meet and rides in several races including Take the Gold (2, Race 1), Bourbon State (2, Race 4), Trackster (5, Race 9), and My Little Wildcat (7, Race 6).
Daniel Centeno has a 13-19 percent win rate and rides key mounts Questnbled’cisions (5, Race 8), Forget Tomorrow (2, Race 7), and Double Neat (8, Race 5).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jose A. Gallegos is the most represented trainer on today’s card with runners in Races 1 area, 4, 5, and 9. He has a 19 percent win rate and 56 percent in-the-money rate at the meet. Key runners include The Best Distance (8, Race 4), Rigel (1, Race 5), Double Neat (8, Race 5), and Wits and Wagers (6, Race 6).
Saffie A. Joseph Jr. trains If I Can Dream (5, Race 2) and has a dominant 18 percent win rate from 102 starters with a 52 percent in-the-money rate. His shipments from Gulfstream Park to Tampa have been highly productive, and If I Can Dream figures to be one of the strongest horses on the card.
Mark E. Casse trains Souper Attentive (10, Race 9) and has an 8 percent win rate from 100 starters but a 33 percent in-the-money rate. The Casse barn is one of the most respected in North American racing, and any runner from this outfit demands respect.
H. Graham Motion trains Tok Tok (8, Race 9) and has a 21 percent win rate from 71 starters with a 49 percent in-the-money rate. Motion is one of the premier turf trainers in the country, and Tok Tok represents a strong play in the closing race.
Juan Arriagada trains Tortuga Island (5, Race 6), Mi Amore (3, Race 6), and Noble Factor (6, Race 5). His multiple runners in the feature race give him a strong presence on the card.
Jose H. Delgado trains Sebastianthe First (5, Race 1) and Tiztimonial (6, Race 3) with a 17 percent win rate and 50 percent in-the-money rate at the meet.
Gerald S. Bennett trains Questnbled’cisions (5, Race 8) and My Lucky Angel (1, Race 3) with a 50 percent win rate from a small sample at the meet and a 13-45 percent rate overall.
Ralph N. Baez trains Develop Product (3, Race 1) and Justamomentplease (2, Race 8) with an impressive 40 percent win rate at the meet from a small sample.
Kevin Rice trains Kuku (1, Race 6) and King Reigert (3, Race 3), posting a 33 percent win rate at the meet.
Steve Klesaris trains Authentic Wave (7, Race 8) with a 29 percent win rate and 86 percent in-the-money rate, making him one of the most efficient trainers on the card.
Renaldo Richards trains La Chismosa (6, Race 8) with a 42 percent win rate at the meet from 12 starters.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card offers several strong wagering angles based on the track bias data and morning line analysis.
The best single-race value play on the card is Trackster (5, Race 9) at a morning line of 10/1. He won his last start at 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa turf, was second in the same conditions two back, and his mid-pack leader style fits the stalker bias perfectly. Trainer Joseph F. Orseno has a 28 percent win rate at the meet. At 10/1, he represents outstanding overlay potential against higher-profile runners like Tok Tok and Souper Attentive.
Kuku (1, Race 6) at 6/1 morning line is an attractive value play in the feature race. She draws the rail in a dirt route, directly aligning with the strong inside-post bias. She was second last out and has a 45 percent in-the-money rate. The Kevin Rice barn is winning at a 33 percent clip.
The Pick 3 from Races 7 through 9 offers the best multi-race wagering opportunity. Race 7 is a wide-open 14-horse maiden field that will produce a price, and tying that into the competitive Races 8 and 9 could yield a significant payoff. A structure using D’argento Bolt (5), Go K J Go (3), and Too Much Fun (4) in Race 7 with Questnbled’cisions (5) and Authentic Wave (7) in Race 8 with Tok Tok (8), Persisten (6), and Trackster (5) in Race 9 covers the main contenders with room for a price.
The early Pick 4 (Races 1-4) can be structured around key favorites. Use Sebastianthe First (5) as a single in Race 1, If I Can Dream (5) and El Orejon (7) in Race 2, spread in Race 3 with Tony B (4) and Tiztimonial (6), and use The Best Distance (8) and El Chispazo (3) in Race 4.
For the morning line analysis, several short-priced horses appear vulnerable. My Lucky Angel (1, Race 3) at 2/1 has just an 8 percent career win rate and no clear path to victory, making him a fade candidate. Go K J Go (3, Race 7) at 3/1 has never won and only three career starts, making her a risky proposition despite the in-the-money consistency. Souper Attentive (10, Race 9) at 3/1 draws the outside in a turf route and runs a front-running style against the stalker bias, making him beatable at short odds.
The Daily Double connecting Races 8 and 9 is another strong play. Questnbled’cisions (5, Race 8) with Tok Tok (8, Race 9) and Persisten (6, Race 9) covers the likely top contenders at a manageable cost.
