The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Turf Paradise hosts an eight-race card on Saturday, February 28, 2026, with first post at 1:15 PM MST. The card features a diverse mix of Quarter Horse sprints (Races 1 and 2) and Thoroughbred routes and sprints (Races 3 through 8). The Thoroughbred portion of the card includes two turf routes (Races 4 and 7), three dirt sprints (Races 3, 5, and 6), and a dirt sprint nightcap (Race 8). The feature race of the day is the sixth, an Allowance Optional Claiming event at six furlongs on the dirt with a $21,000 purse, attracting the strongest assembled field on the card.
Several scratches and potential scratches are worth monitoring. Jjs Boots has been scratched from Race 1 due to a veterinarian scratch, reducing the Quarter Horse opener to five runners. Score For Alice (7) in Race 3 is on scratch watch for veterinary reasons. Rabble (2) in Race 4 is flagged by the stewards. In Race 7, both Marinas Tina (8) and Viewers Discretion (7) are listed as stewards scratches. Cha Ching Machine (11) in Race 8 is also on scratch watch due to veterinary concerns. Bettors should check final scratch updates before committing to wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
Phoenix is in the midst of a record-breaking late-February warm spell, with temperatures reaching 90 degrees for the first time in 2026 on February 27. Saturday’s forecast calls for a high near 87 to 93 degrees Fahrenheit under partly cloudy skies, with a low around 62 to 65 degrees. Humidity will be extremely low at approximately 22%, and winds will be essentially calm at around 1 mph. There is virtually zero chance of precipitation.
Given the extended dry conditions and desert heat, the main dirt track should be rated Fast and the turf course Firm. The lack of moisture and above-average temperatures will keep the racing surface baked and compact. Horses that handle firm, dry ground should be at an advantage, while any turf runner needing a touch of give in the ground will be disadvantaged. The hot temperatures may also Play a factor in the nightcap, as heat-sensitive horses could tire more quickly in the later races. The turf rail is set at 14 feet for the two grass races (Races 4 and 7).
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Turf Paradise‘s one-mile oval dirt track generally plays fair, though early speed carries a definitive advantage in sprint races. Historical data indicates that approximately 46% of winners in 5-to-5.5-furlong dirt events won wire-to-wire, making front-running horses a prime consideration in shorter distances. In longer dirt races, pace becomes more nuanced, and stalkers and closers find more opportunity.
On the turf course, inside post positions hold a statistically significant advantage, particularly in route races. Data from recent meets show that 39% of turf winners came from posts 1 or 2, making the rail a coveted draw on the grass. Runners drawn wide in turf routes with larger fields face the challenge of ground loss on the tight turns. With the rail at 14 feet today, there is a slight cushion off the inside fence, which should allow inside runners to save ground Without being boxed in against the rail.
Favorites win at roughly a 38% clip at Turf Paradise, which is consistent with national averages for this class of racing. In the Quarter Horse races, the breaking position matters enormously in the short sprint distances, and a clean break from the gate is often the deciding factor.
Race 1 — Claiming, 330 Yards, Dirt, Purse $11,800
Post Time
1:15 PM MST
Pace Analysis
This is a 330-yard Quarter Horse sprint for Arizona-bred four-year-olds and up that have never won two races, with a $10,000 claiming tag. At this distance, the race is essentially over in a blink. Gate speed and a clean break are everything. Cha Chings Chick (4) and Ride Em Cowboy (6) both show fast early speed in their running style profiles, and they should be contesting the lead from the start. Tell America (5), classified as the fastest deep runner in this group, may need a few strides to find her best stride but could run over tiring rivals late in the final 30 yards.
Key Contenders
Cha Chings Chick (4) is the morning line favorite at even money for good reason. This 8-year-old mare has a 33% win rate from three career starts with a win and a place, showing consistent ability at the shorter Quarter Horse distances. Her most recent start was a victory at 2.5 furlongs at Turf Paradise, demonstrating sharp current form. She draws a favorable middle post and should break alertly. Trainer Luis A. Valenzuela has a 33% win rate with a small but productive stable.
Ride Em Cowboy (6) is listed at 2/1 on the morning line and earned the top win Probability score of 42% from predictive modeling. This 4-year-old gelding has finished in the top three in five of 12 career starts and showed improving form with a third and a second in his two most recent outings. He draws the outside post in a five-horse field, which is not a hindrance at this short distance. Jockey Mark A. Jasso boasts an impressive 38% win rate and 75% in-the-money percentage from recent Quarter Horse rides.
Secondary Choices
Tell America (5) has handicapper support as the top selection at 9/5 from one prominent analysis. This 4-year-old filly has the most experience in the field with 18 career starts, producing one win but a solid 50% in-the-money rate. She finished fifth and third in her last two starts and should benefit from the slight stretch-out to 330 yards. Jockey Jayden R. Ironeyes has a 17% win rate and 33% in-the-money rate from recent mounts.
Longshots
Ps Grand Furi (3) at 3/1 on the morning line has not won a race but has hit the board in three of 10 career starts, including a second and third in his last three at Turf Paradise. He is a slowest leader type who may struggle to get the jump on Faster rivals at this short distance. Msblue (1) is a 5-year-old gelding listed at 4/1 who scored a win last out at 4 furlongs at Turf Paradise but was classified as a slower leader and may be a notch below these.
Betting Strategy: The five-horse field limits exotic options. An exactabox using Ride Em Cowboy (6) with Cha Chings Chick (4) and Tell America (5) is the Play. A small trifecta keying 6 on top with 4 and 5 underneath, adding 3 for the third slot, gives value coverage.
Stepping up to 400 yards for four-year-olds and up that have never won two races, this allowance race should see Honest early fractions. Juss Serious (1), profiled as the fastest leader, will look to set the early pace from the rail. Wow (5) is another fast leader type who will press from the middle of the gate. Gonlikeafreighttrain (7) stalks and pounces, ideally positioned to run over tiring speed horses in the final 50 yards.
Key Contenders
Gonlikeafreighttrain (7) is the deserved morning line favorite at 3/2 and attracts strong handicapper backing. This 4-year-old gelding has won two of seven career starts (29% win rate) and has hit the board in four of seven (57% in-the-money), the best percentages in this field. He won his last two starts in succession at 300 and 400 yards at Turf Paradise. Classified as a fast stalker, he sits just off the pace and closes with authority. Jockey Jose Juan Olivo provides a Competent pilot with an 11% win rate from 37 mounts.
Wow (5) is the second choice at 2/1 on the morning line with 14 career starts. He finished second last out at 3.5 furlongs and third two back at 4 furlongs, showing he consistently competes at this level. His fast leader running style means he will be involved from the break, and if Gonlikeafreighttrain stalks too far back, Wow could steal this on the Front End. Note that Wow is listed as also-eligible and may scratch; bettors should confirm his participation before wagering.
Secondary Choices
Masters Hand (4) at 3/1 on the morning line is a 4-year-old filly who has finished second in two of her last three starts at 4 furlongs at Turf Paradise. Her fast stalker style gives her tactical speed, and she projects to sit a good trip just off the pace. Juss Serious (1) draws the rail and has the fastest leader profile, which could benefit her if the pace is not contested, though her 8% career win rate from 13 starts is concerning.
Longshots
Wildcat Lover (6) ships in from Indiana with the most career experience (28 starts, 2 wins) and has shown the ability to hit the board at this level. His form in Indiana is not directly comparable to the Arizona colony, which makes him a risk, but at 4/1 he could offer some exotic value. Dillinger Dash (3) at 14/1 is the longest price on the board, with only one win from 18 starts and poor recent form. He is also listed as also-eligible and may not start.
Betting Strategy: Gonlikeafreighttrain deserves to be a single on top of exactas. Key him over Wow and Masters Hand in the exacta, and construct a trifecta using 7 on top with 5 and 4 for second, adding 1 and 6 for third.
This is a maiden claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and up, with a $8,500 claiming tag ($10,000 for Arizona-breds). The pace should be moderate, as no horse in this field shows dominant early speed. Mamarando (6), Swiss Dancer (2), and Lucky Nea (1) are all profiled as fast stalker types who will vie for position early but may not set Blistering fractions. This moderate pace scenario should favor horses who can stalk and sustain a run through the lane.
Key Contenders
Lucky Nea (1) has strong handicapper support as the top pick at 5/2 from one Source and is the morning line favorite at 3/2. This 4-year-old filly ships in from the Southern California circuit, where she raced at Santa Anita, a far stronger venue. Although she has not broken her maiden in 32 starts, she has earned $144,730 — a reflection of consistent placings at a higher level. The massive class drop into an $8,500 maiden claimer at Turf Paradise should be highly advantageous. She is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who boasts a 27% win rate at this meet, and ridden by Orlando Mojica, who has a 23% strike rate in the saddle. This is the combination bettors want to be on.
Swiss Dancer (2) at 5/2 morning line has never won but has hit the board in 11 of 15 starts (73% in-the-money), an exceptionally high rate that demonstrates she is always competitive. She finished third and fourth in her last two at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise and now stretches out a half furlong, which should suit her stamina. Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio has been riding competently this meet with a 19% win rate.
Secondary Choices
Mamarando (6) at 2/1 morning line is the second favorite and has 29 career starts, indicating she is well-exposed but still seeking her first victory. She ran a strong second last out at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise, her best recent finish. Her fast stalker profile puts her in the right position tactically, but the 0-for-29 career record raises concerns about her ability to finish the job. Believe In Her (5) at 4/1 is lightly raced with only three starts, finishing fourth last out at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise. She is a fast closer type who needs pace to run at, and the projected moderate tempo may not fully accommodate that style.
Longshots
Liberty Cap (3) at 7/1 is a fast closer who could benefit if the pace heats up unexpectedly, though her 0-for-9 record and recent seventh-place finish suggest she is a minor player. Kissed Lips (4) at 9/1 is winless in four starts with zero in-the-money finishes and looks overmatched. Score For Alice (7) is on scratch watch for veterinary reasons.
Betting Strategy: Lucky Nea should be a strong single. Use her on top of exactas with Swiss Dancer, Mamarando, and Believe In Her underneath. A trifecta keying 1 over 2, 6, 5 for second and third positions offers solid coverage.
Race 4 — Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf, Purse $12,000
Post Time
2:42 PM MST
Pace Analysis
The first turf race of the day is a one-mile claiming event for fillies and mares with an $8,500 tag. The rail is set at 14 feet. Several runners show early speed tendencies, including Chainsaw City (6), Island Jive (4), and Striking Notes (7), all profiled as fast leads types. This creates a scenario where the pace could be contested, potentially setting up closers and deep runners. Mark Of Victory (3) and Lookout Pass (8), both profiled as fast deep types, stand to benefit from a pace battle.
Key Contenders
Chainsaw City (6) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and the top win Probability pick at 22%. This 5-year-old mare is the most experienced runner in the field with 49 career starts and $244,658 in earnings. She finished second in two of her last three starts, showing consistent competitiveness. Her fast leads profile means she will look to control the pace from the front. Jockey Manuel Americano has an 8% win rate but a 36% in-the-money rate from a heavy mount count, and trainer Edward J. Kereluk has a strong 10% win and 60% WPS at this meet.
Island Jive (4) at 5/2 morning line draws the inside half of the gate and is backed by handicapper analysis as the top pick. This 5-year-old mare has two wins and six placings from 18 starts with an impressive 61% in-the-money rate. Her fastest leads profile means she will contest the pace from the start, and the inside post position (post 4 of 8) works well given the turf bias favoring inside runners. Jockey Glenn W. Corbett has a solid 13% win rate and 39% in-the-money rate.
Secondary Choices
Striking Notes (7) at 3/1 morning line won over this course and distance two starts back, then faded to sixth last out. The question is whether the bounce pattern continues or she can regain her winning form. Jockey Adrian Castellanos has a 21% win rate this meet, which is among the best on the grounds. Mark Of Victory (3) at 7/1 has been remarkably consistent with 10 placings from 29 career starts. His fast deep profile means he will be coming late, and if the pace is hot, he could pick up the pieces for a share.
Longshots
Sneaky Situation (1) at 11/1 morning line is the longest price in the field and has struggled badly in recent dirt starts (sixth, seventh, tenth). The move to turf is a wildcard, and while she draws the inside, which offers a turf advantage, her recent form is discouraging. Lookout Pass (8) at 4/1 draws the outside in the turf route, a disadvantage given the bias, but has shown the ability to rally from deep with a second-place finish two back at 7.5 furlongs on the turf.
Betting Strategy: This is a competitive race with pace questions. An exacta box of Island Jive (4), Chainsaw City (6), and Striking Notes (7) covers the top three. A trifecta using 4 and 6 on top with 7, 3, and 8 filling out the bottom provides value. Rabble (2) is on scratch watch by the stewards and may not run.
This six-furlong dirt claiming sprint for fillies and mares carries a $6,250 tag ($8,000 Arizona-bred). The pace figures to be hotly contested. Minedandrefined (3) and Poker Alice (5) are both front-running types who will fight for the lead. With two confirmed speed horses pressing from the gate, the pace should be Honest to fast, setting up potential closers like Unified A.P. (7) and Diamond Dee (2).
Key Contenders
Minedandrefined (3) is the heavy morning line favorite at even money, backed by handicapper consensus. This 6-year-old mare has 30 career starts with four wins and 14 placings, and importantly, she won two starts back at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise. She finished fifth last out at the same distance, which gives some concern, but trainer Alexis Leon and jockey Karlo Lopez are a dependable combination at this venue. Her fast leader profile means she will look to control the race from the front.
Unified A.P. (7) earned the top win Probability rating of 25% from predictive modeling and sits at 3/2 on the morning line. This 5-year-old mare has six wins from 29 starts (21% win rate) and is a fast closer type who should benefit if Minedandrefined and Poker Aliceduel early. She finished fourth last out, which is not her best, but she is well-suited to this distance and pace scenario. Trainer Edward J. Kereluk has an outstanding 43% win rate and 64% WPS in the current meet.
Secondary Choices
Poker Alice (5) at 2/1 morning line has the best career win rate in the field at 24% (8 wins from 34 starts) and over $172,000 in earnings. She is the fastest leads type and will push the pace from the start. However, she is cutting back from a one-mile turf race last out where she faded to seventh, and the surface switch may require an adjustment. Jockey Adrian Castellanos (23% win rate) is a strong pilot for this type of runner. Cestrand (4) at 4/1 has won her last start and placed second two back, showing improving form. Her slowest leader profile means she will not contest the pace, instead sitting in behind and making a late move.
Longshots
In Without Knockin (1) at 9/1 won last out at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise, giving her obvious current form appeal. However, that race was her only strong recent effort, with mostly poor results otherwise. Diamond Dee (2) at 7/1 has six wins from 29 starts and a 62% in-the-money rate, making her a deep closer who could grab a minor share. Kamikaze Blue (6) at 14/1 has been badly beaten in recent outings and is a throwout.
Betting Strategy: The pace duel between Minedandrefined and Poker Alice sets up perfectly for Unified A.P. to close. Key 7 on top of exactas over 3, 5, and 4. A trifecta with 7 and 3 on top, using 5, 4, and 1 underneath, provides coverage. Cestrand at 4/1 could round out the superfecta.
The feature race of the day is a six-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming sprint for four-year-olds and up, with a $40,000 claiming tag ($50,000 for Arizona-breds). This is the highest-caliber field on the card. Departure (4), profiled as the fastest closer, and Mission Beach (6), a fast closer, will both look to rate off the early pace. Coastal Jazz (3) is the slowest leader type who will try to dictate terms from the front. Diamond Rim (1) will sit mid-pack. The pace shape projects to be moderate, with Coastal Jazz possibly getting an easy lead if no one presses.
Key Contenders
Mission Beach (6) is the morning line favorite at even money and has the highest career earnings in the field at $638,100 from 22 starts. This 5-year-old gelding has won six of 22 career races (27% win rate) and comes in off a win at 6.5 furlongs at Turf Paradise. He won two of his last three starts, establishing strong current form. Jockey Manuel Americano rides regularly for trainer Jose Silva, Jr., who has a sharp 24% win rate this meet. His fast closer profile means he will be coming with a late run, and if the pace is Honest, he should be tough to deny.
Departure (4) at 2/1 morning line is the most accomplished horse in the field from a win percentage Standpoint, with 13 wins from 36 starts (36%). He won last out at 6 furlongs at Turf Paradise and has won two of his last three. As the fastest closer in the field, he presents the biggest threat to Mission Beach if the pace sets up for deep closers. Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio has an 18% win rate from 89 mounts.
Secondary Choices
Sawasdee (2) at 5/2 morning line has handicapper backing as a top selection. This 8-year-old gelding has nine wins from 44 starts and an outstanding 75% in-the-money rate ($528,748 in earnings). He finished third last out and second two back, showing he is always competitive. Trained by Isaiah Ortiz, who also conditions Diamond Rim and Kauai Dan, Sawasdee will be ridden by Orlando Mojica (23% win rate this meet). His mid-pack leader style gives him tactical flexibility.
Coastal Jazz (3) at 3/1 morning line has the best career win percentage in this field at 31% (12 wins from 39 starts) and will attempt to control the race from the front. If he gets an easy lead Without pressure, he is dangerous. Jockey Kiaman McGregor has an 11% win rate but a respectable 40% in-the-money rate from heavy mount volume.
Longshots
Diamond Rim (1) at 4/1 morning line has nine wins from 34 starts and over $575,000 in career earnings. He finished second last out and was a recent winner at this distance. At this price, he offers value, especially if the pace collapses and his mid-pack style allows him to pick up the pieces. Kauai Dan (5) at 5/1 is the most experienced runner with 50 career starts, 16 wins, and a 78% in-the-money rate. He won last out at 6.5 furlongs and is a deeper runner who needs a pace to close into.
Betting Strategy: This is a highly competitive race and a prime candidate for exotic Play. An exacta box of Mission Beach (6), Departure (4), and Sawasdee (2) covers the most likely top two. A trifecta using 6, 4, and 2 on top with 3, 1, and 5 filling the third slot gives a complete ticket. Diamond Rim at 4/1 and Kauai Dan at 5/1 are both Legitimate value plays for the superfecta.
The second turf route of the day is a one-mile Allowance Optional Claiming event for fillies and mares four years old and up, with a $12,500 claiming tag ($16,000 Arizona-bred). The rail is set at 14 feet. Lady Rider (4), profiled as the fastest leader, will look to set the pace from an advantageous inside-middle draw. Greatful Attitude (3) shows a slower leads profile and could press or stalk. Dr. Ray D. (2) and Port Ellen (6) are mid-pack stalkers who will sit behind the pace. This race may have pace complexity depending on how aggressively Lady Rider asserts herself early.
Note: Both Marinas Tina (8) and Viewers Discretion (7) are on scratch watch by the stewards. If they scratch, the field shrinks to six, concentrating the value plays.
Key Contenders
Dr. Ray D. (2) is the clear morning line favorite at 2/1 and has a superb profile: five wins from 25 starts with an 80% in-the-money rate and $269,850 in career earnings. She won last out over this course and distance at Turf Paradise and also won at Remington Park two back. Trained by Robertino Diodoro (27% win rate) and ridden by Orlando Mojica (23% win rate), this is the same powerhouse combination highlighted in Race 3. Her mid-pack stalker style allows her to sit a tactical trip and pounce in the stretch. The post 2 draw is ideal on the turf course.
Lady Rider (4) at 5/2 morning line arrives from the Santa Anita circuit with back-to-back wins on the turf and a 23% win rate from 13 starts (85% in-the-money). Her fastest leader profile makes her the likely pacesetter. The big question is whether she can transfer her form from Southern California’s deeper racing to the Arizona colony. Jockey Manuel Americano has the leg up, and the inside-middle draw should allow her to save ground into the first turn.
Secondary Choices
Greatful Attitude (3) at 4/1 morning line is on a two-race winning streak over this course and distance at Turf Paradise, making her a significant threat. She has seven wins from 31 starts and $174,775 in earnings. Her slower leads profile means she can set or stalk, depending on Lady Rider‘s pace intentions. Jockey Adrian Castellanos (21% win rate) has been one of the most effective riders this meet. She carries top weight of 124 pounds, which is a slight negative.
Port Ellen (6) at 5/1 morning line is an Irish-bred who won over this course and distance at Turf Paradise last out. She has four wins from 20 starts with a 70% in-the-money rate, showing consistency. Her mid-pack stalker profile suits the turf, and she has shown the ability to pick up the pieces when the pace collapses.
Longshots
Church Pew (5) at 7/1 morning line gets the nod from one handicapper as the top selection, a contrarian pick. She has three wins from 21 starts and was second over this course and distance two starts back. Her fast deep profile means she will be running on late, and at this price she offers value in exotics. Rebel Gal (1) at 9/1 draws the rail on the turf, a significant advantage statistically. She finished third over this course and distance last out and has six placings from 18 starts. At this price, she is a must-include in the exotics.
Betting Strategy: Dr. Ray D. is the rightful favorite and should be used as a single in the Pick sequences. For the exacta, key 2 on top over 4, 3, and 6. A trifecta using 2 and 4 on top with 3, 6, 5, and 1 filling the bottom captures the most likely scenarios. Church Pew and Rebel Gal at longer odds should be included in the superfecta to provide value.
The nightcap is a maiden claiming sprint at 4.5 furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares three years old and up, with a $4,500 claiming tag ($6,250 Arizona-bred). This is the largest and most wide-open field on the card with up to 11 runners (pending potential scratches). Denada (10), profiled as the fastest leads type, will look to establish the early pace. Hazael (1), a fast stalker, will sit just off the speed. Arya's Ride (5), a fast closer, will be running on from the back. In a large maiden field with short-distance speed demands, expect a chaotic pace with several horses vying for position.
Key Contenders
Hazael (1) is the 3/2 morning line favorite and has shown improving form, placing in two of her last three starts at Turf Paradise (third and second). She draws the rail, which offers an advantage in a full field sprint, and her fast stalker profile keeps her in tactical range. Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio has a 29% win rate from a small sample of seven mounts, and trainer Mike Chambers has an outstanding 67% win rate from three starters this meet.
Denada (10) at 2/1 morning line has hit the board in three of seven career starts Without winning (43% in-the-money) and carries $28,580 in career earnings, the highest in the field. She finished second in both of her last two starts and is the fastest leads type in the field, projecting to set the pace. The wide post 10 draw is a concern in a full field at 4.5 furlongs, as she will need to use energy to establish position. Jockey Karlo Lopez is a dependable veteran. One handicapper selects her as the top pick.
Secondary Choices
Arya's Ride (5) at 5/1 morning line has never won in 11 starts but has a 36% in-the-money rate and placed third two starts back at 6 furlongs. Her fast closer style could benefit if the pace is hot. Jockey Manuel Americano (25% win rate from 28 mounts) and trainer Ruby Thomas (50% win rate from two starters) are a positive combination. Andramada (6) at 4/1 morning line ships in from Golden Gate Fields and has minimal form, but trainer Frank Lucarelli (33% win rate from six starters) elevates her profile.
Longshots
Blue Mocha (9) at 5/1 morning line has only two career starts with zero wins, but jockey Adrian Castellanos (27% win rate from 11 mounts) and trainer Scott Tubbs give her a fighting chance. By The Law (8) at 9/1 is a lightly raced 3-year-old filly with just two starts. She benefits from a significant weight advantage, carrying only 115 pounds (11 pounds less than most rivals), and apprentice jockey Sachin Parris could maximize that edge. In a wide-open maiden race, weight concessions matter. Cha Ching Machine (11) is on scratch watch for veterinary reasons.
Betting Strategy: This is a wide-open maiden race, perfect for exotic wagering. Avoid straight win bets and focus on trifectas and superfectas. Key Hazael (1) and Denada (10) on top with Arya's Ride (5), Andramada (6), Blue Mocha (9), and By The Law (8) filling the bottom. This is the race to spread in the Pick sequences.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Orlando Mojica is the marquee rider on this card with two high-percentage mounts: Lucky Nea (1) in Race 3 and Sawasdee (2) in Race 6. Mojica reached 3,000 career victories at Turf Paradise on December 30, 2025, a significant milestone. He has maintained approximately a 23% win rate this meet and a 54% in-the-money rate, making him the most reliable jockey on the grounds. When he is paired with trainer Robertino Diodoro, the combination is especially potent, and bettors should take note whenever this tandem is listed.
Adrian Castellanos is another jockey riding at a high level this meet with a 21% win rate and 54% in-the-money rate. He has three mounts today: Greatful Attitude (3) in Race 7, Poker Alice (5) in Race 5, and Blue Mocha (9) in Race 8. His ability to rate horses off the pace and deliver a well-timed run makes him particularly effective in route races.
Manuel Americano is the busiest rider on the card with multiple mounts, including Mission Beach (6) in the feature Race 6 and Lady Rider (4) in Race 7. His overall win rate is modest at 7-18% depending on the sample, but he has a high in-the-money rate and knows the Turf Paradise course intimately.
Karlo Lopez carries a heavy workload this meet with over 100 mounts and an 8-12% win rate. He has the call on Minedandrefined (3) in Race 5, Diamond Rim (1) in Race 6, and Denada (10) in Race 8. He is Competent but rarely delivers at short prices.
Mark A. Jasso is the Standout Quarter Horse jockey on the card, boasting a 22-38% win rate from Quarter Horse rides with a 65-75% in-the-money rate. He has the call on Ride Em Cowboy (6) in Race 1. When he is named to a Quarter Horse runner, pay attention.
Jose Mariano Asencio has been a steady presence this meet with an 18-19% win rate and 44-48% in-the-money rate. He rides Hazael (1) in Race 8, where his strong recent record with trainer Mike Chambers could pay off.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Robertino Diodoro is the most dominant trainer at this meet, running an approximately 27% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate, consistent with his career-long reputation as one of the top conditioners in the Midwest and Southwest circuits. He has over 2,000 career wins. His lone entry today is Lucky Nea (1) in Race 3, paired with Mojica. When Diodoro drops a horse in class, as he is doing with Lucky Nea (shipping from Santa Anita claimers), it is almost always a sign of intent to win. Lucky Nea should be one of the strongest plays on the card.
Isaiah Ortiz has a notable presence in Race 6 with three runners from his barn: Diamond Rim (1), Sawasdee (2), and Kauai Dan (5). His 12% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate from 16 starters this meet suggest he places his horses competitively. When a trainer enters multiple runners in the same race, it is worth identifying which one he has drawn up best, and Sawasdee with Mojica in the saddle appears to be the preferred runner.
Ruben Fuentes has a strong 28% win rate and 47% in-the-money rate this meet and sends out Church Pew (5) in Race 7. His high win rate at a track where favorites win only 38% of the time suggests he is maximizing his stable’s opportunities.
Edward J. Kereluk has been exceptional this meet with a 43% win rate and 64% in-the-money rate from 14 starters. He trains Chainsaw City (6) in Race 4 and Unified A.P. (7) in Race 5. Both runners are competitive at their respective levels, and his meet statistics demand respect.
Frank Lucarelli trains two runners in Race 7 (Greatful Attitude (3) and Port Ellen (6)) and one in Race 8 (Andramada (6)). His 18% win rate and 36% in-the-money rate are solid. Having two entrants in Race 7 suggests he is looking to cover multiple scenarios.
Neil A. Koch also has multiple entries: Kissed Lips (4) in Race 3 and Cestrand (4) in Race 5. His 12-14% win rate this meet is modest, but Cestrand‘s recent win and second give her a realistic chance in Race 5.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best plays on this card center on the Diodoro/Mojica combination in Race 3, the pace setup in Race 5, and the deep and competitive fields in Races 6 and 8.
Lucky Nea (1) in Race 3 is the strongest single Play on the card. The class drop from Santa Anita maiden claimers to Turf Paradise maiden claimers is enormous, and the Diodoro/Mojica combination is Nearly unstoppable when they have live horses. Use Lucky Nea as a single in all multi-race wagers.
Race 6 is the best exotic race on the card. The six-horse field features five Legitimate contenders with morning line odds tightly bunched between even money and 5/1. An all-inclusive exacta box of Mission Beach (6), Departure (4), Sawasdee (2), and Coastal Jazz (3) costs $12 for $1 units and captures the most likely top-two finishers. Adding Diamond Rim and Kauai Dan to the trifecta and superfecta widens the net.
Race 8 is the other prime exotic target. The large maiden field at 4.5 furlongs is inherently Unpredictable, and the potential for a longshot to fire makes this a high-value superfecta opportunity. Keying Hazael (1) and Denada (10) on top with five or six runners beneath can produce a generous payout.
For multi-race wagers, the Pick 4 beginning in Race 5 (Races 5 through 8) is where the value lies. A suggested ticket structure would be: Race 5 — 3, 5, 7 (Minedandrefined, Poker Alice, Unified A.P.); Race 6 — 2, 4, 6 (Sawasdee, Departure, Mission Beach); Race 7 — 2, 3, 4 (Dr. Ray D., Greatful Attitude, Lady Rider); Race 8 — 1, 5, 10 (Hazael, Arya's Ride, Denada). This 81-combination ticket at $1 costs $81 but captures the most likely outcomes while excluding the heaviest favorites in several legs.
The Daily Double connecting Races 7 and 8 offers another opportunity. Dr. Ray D. (2) in Race 7 paired with Hazael (1), Denada (10), and Arya's Ride (5) in Race 8 gives a $6 ticket at $2 units.
One additional value angle: Kereluk-trained runners deserve attention throughout the card. His 43% meet win rate suggests he is in a strong groove, and both Chainsaw City in Race 4 and Unified A.P. in Race 5 are competitive at their levels.
Morning line odds for the top contenders in each race are summarized below:
Here’s your full race day handicapping report for Turf Paradise on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The report covers all eight races with detailed pace analysis, key contenders, secondary choices, longshots, and betting strategies for each.
Key highlights from the card:
Best Bet of the Day:Lucky Nea (1) in Race 3 — the Diodoro/Mojica class drop from Santa Anita is the strongest single Play on the card.
Best Exotic Race: Race 6 (the feature AOC) has five Legitimate contenders tightly bunched and is ideal for exacta and trifecta Play.
Value Angle: Trainer Edward J. Kereluk’s 43% meet win rate makes his runners (Chainsaw City in Race 4, Unified A.P. in Race 5) automatic inclusions.
