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The Friday card at Tampa Bay Downs features a nine-race program headlined by several competitive claiming and allowance contests. The primary story for today is the significant change in surface for the scheduled turf races. Due to recent precipitation in the Oldsmar area, management has moved all turf events to the main dirt track. This adjustment alters the handicapping landscape significantly, as turf specialists may struggle with the transition while dirt-form horses gain a substantial advantage. Additionally, the rail on the turf course was originally set at 22 feet, but the shift to the main track renders this moot for the active races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Tampa, Florida, on February 6, 2026, calls for mild temperatures with highs reaching approximately 69°F. Early morning rain has passed, but the moisture was enough to force the surface changes. The dirt track is currently rated as Good but is expected to dry out toward Fast as the afternoon progresses. Winds are light out of the north at 5 mph, which should not significantly impact the stretch runs.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Historically, when turf races are moved to the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, the inside paths can become heavy, often favoring horses that can secure an outside stalking position or those with proven early speed that can clear the field. In sprint races on the dirt today, the middle posts (4 through 6) have shown a slight statistical edge in recent weeks. For the route races at a mile and forty yards, the short run to the first turn makes inside draws advantageous for securing a ground-saving trip.
1st Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
12:35 PM EST
Pace Analysis
The opening race should feature a moderate tempo. Charlie’s Beauty and Lady Dominance are the likely candidates to vie for the early lead. One Violent Affair has shown the ability to press from just off the pace and should find a comfortable spot in the first flight.
Key Contenders
Charlie’s Beauty enters this race with consistent figures for the O’Connell barn. Her tactical speed is a major asset in this small field. China Blue is the primary threat, coming off a solid third-place effort and showing enough class to handle this claiming level.
Secondary Choices
One Violent Affair has the back class to compete here and gets the services of Cecily Evans. Lady Dominance is an older veteran who knows how to win at this distance but may find the younger rivals a bit too quick in the final furlong.
Longshots
Pola of Trouble has struggled recently but has shown flashes of talent in the past. If the pace collapses, she could sneak into the trifecta at a price.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The angle here is to focus on the O’Connell trainee Charlie’s Beauty. Use her on top of China Blue in exacta tickets. This race lacks depth, so a narrow focus is recommended.
Selections
Win: Charlie’s Beauty (5) – 35% confidence
Place: China Blue (4) – 30% confidence
Show: One Violent Affair (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Lady Dominance (3) – 15% confidence
2nd Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
01:05 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This 6 1/2 furlong sprint will be fast. Mama Drama and Hola Hermosa are confirmed front-runners. Naked Eye is the fastest closer in the group and will be looking for a complete meltdown of the leaders to make her move.
Key Contenders
Naked Eye is the class of the field and the morning line favorite for a reason. Her speed ratings are superior to this group, and the extra half-furlong should play right into her closing style. Sweet Hazely is another strong contender coming from the Juan Avila barn, showing good form at Gulfstream before shipping here.
Secondary Choices
Mama Drama is dangerous if left alone on the lead. Gerald Bennett is excellent at spotting these fillies where they can win. Awesome Campaign won her last start at this track and distance and must be respected.
Longshots
Bella Mendy has been finishing in the money consistently and could provide value in the underneath slots of vertical wagers.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Naked Eye is a logical single for multi-race wagers like the Pick 3. In the exacta, use her with Sweet Hazely and Awesome Campaign.
Selections
Win: Naked Eye (4) – 45% confidence
Place: Sweet Hazely (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Awesome Campaign (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Mama Drama (3) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
01:36 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Always a Runner is expected to dictate terms early. Goldy Gate may attempt to stay close, but the Chad Brown trainee has significantly more early zip on paper.
Key Contenders
Always a Runner stands out in this maiden special weight. Shipping in for Chad Brown, this filly has been working exceptionally well and finds a field that appears to be lacking a similar caliber of talent. All About You is the main danger, having hit the board in four of her five career starts.
Secondary Choices
Evangalina showed improvement in her third career start and could take another step forward today for Eoin Harty. Endless Glory has faced decent company and should benefit from the mile distance.
Longshots
Mambo Taxi is a bit of a wild card but would need a significant career best to threaten the top two.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This looks like a two-horse race between Always a Runner and All About You. A cold exacta using 6 over 5 is a strong possibility here.
Selections
Win: Always a Runner (6) – 50% confidence
Place: All About You (5) – 30% confidence
Show: Evangalina (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Endless Glory (3) – 5% confidence
4th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
02:06 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Cajun Hottie and Sarasota Honey will likely provide the early speed. Looking At Unicity is another first-time starter who has shown speed in morning works.
Key Contenders
Sarasota Honey has the best pedigree in the field and has been pointed toward this debut by David Braddy. Cajun Hottie has the benefit of experience and has already shown she can compete at this level with two runner-up finishes.
Secondary Choices
Runtown is a closer who will benefit if the top two choices duel each other into submission. Choose Your Words is another newcomer to watch out for the Vinson barn.
Longshots
Hurricane Season has been overlooked in the betting but has a series of steady works that suggest she is ready to compete.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Experience often counts for more than pedigree in these maiden claiming sprints. Cajun Hottie is a reliable play to hit the board, while Sarasota Honey is the one with the most upside.
Selections
Win: Sarasota Honey (8) – 35% confidence
Place: Cajun Hottie (3) – 35% confidence
Show: Runtown (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Choose Your Words (7) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
02:37 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Moved from turf to dirt. Sister Supream and Dynamic Actress should be the ones to lead the field into the first turn. The move to dirt might slow the overall tempo, favoring those who can carry their speed.
Key Contenders
Crafty Collector is a versatile filly who has run well on both surfaces. Her dirt form is strong enough to make her the one to beat here. Katies a Lady also benefits from the surface switch, as her best career efforts have come on the main track.
Secondary Choices
Expecting a Winner is a consistent performer who should be in the mix late. Gunesh is a bit of a surface specialist but has the class to transition if she handles the kickback.
Longshots
Stillthinkingofyou could be a surprise if the pace is faster than expected, as she has shown some late interest in her dirt sprints.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The off-turf angle is key here. Focus on horses with proven dirt wins. Crafty Collector is the most reliable choice in a murky situation.
Selections
Win: Crafty Collector (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Katies a Lady (3) – 30% confidence
Show: Expecting a Winner (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Sister Supream (5) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
03:09 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Paved in Gold is the clear speed and will likely try to wire the field. My Lucky Angel will be in pursuit from the start.
Key Contenders
Paxton has been very close in his last two starts and seems to be peaking at the right time for Rory Miller. My Lucky Angel is the other primary contender, coming off a third-place finish and now getting the services of Samy Camacho.
Secondary Choices
Paved in Gold is dangerous on the lead and could prove hard to catch if Sonny Leon can slow the middle fractions. Strengthnguidance is a steady runner who usually finds his way into the minor awards.
Longshots
Hasten is a deep closer who needs a lot of help up front but could blow up the exotic payoffs at a big price.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Paxton is the most consistent horse in the race. Use him as a key in trifecta and superfecta wagering.
Selections
Win: Paxton (7) – 35% confidence
Place: My Lucky Angel (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Paved in Gold (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Strengthnguidance (3) – 15% confidence
7th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
03:39 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Moved from turf to dirt. Alrasikh and Efficacy are the most likely to lead. The move to dirt significantly helps Alrasikh, who has shown tactical speed on the main track previously.
Key Contenders
Alrasikh is the standout here, especially with the surface change. He has superior speed figures and has been knocking on the door for a win. Efficacy is the main rival and should be the one to challenge him in the lane.
Secondary Choices
And Thats My Story has some decent dirt lines and could benefit from the scratch of several turf-only entrants. All the Luck is another who should be considered for the lower rungs of the exotics.
Longshots
Moralito is lightly raced and could improve on the dirt for the Rodriguez barn.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Alrasikh is one of the strongest plays on the card given the surface move. He should be used as a banker in multi-race bets.
Selections
Win: Alrasikh (4) – 55% confidence
Place: Efficacy (2) – 25% confidence
Show: And Thats My Story (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: All the Luck (5) – 5% confidence
8th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
04:09 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This is a high-quality field. Forged Steel and Skate Away are both very fast. Expect a contested lead that will set things up for a mid-pack stalker like Outofthedark.
Key Contenders
Skate Away ships in for Todd Pletcher and looks like a monster on paper. With two straight wins, he is the horse everyone has to beat. Forged Steel is a talented runner for Saffie Joseph Jr. and will be the primary pace challenger.
Secondary Choices
Outofthedark is extremely consistent and rarely runs a bad race. Seeking Unity has the class to compete but might find these younger rivals a bit too sharp.
Longshots
Icelander has won two of his last three and could be the value play if the favorites get into a speed duel.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Pletcher and Marin are a potent combination. Skate Away is the pick, but Forged Steel is a must-include on all tickets.
Selections
Win: Skate Away (5) – 40% confidence
Place: Forged Steel (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Outofthedark (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Icelander (4) – 10% confidence
9th Race – Tampa Bay Downs – Friday, February 6th, 2026
Post Time
04:39 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Moved from turf to dirt. Attack and Gianluca Be Lucky are the speed. With the distance being a mile on dirt now, those with route experience on the main track have a major edge.
Key Contenders
Cable Ready is a gritty veteran who handles any surface and should relish the move to the dirt. Gianluca Be Lucky has the speed to clear this field and could be long gone if left unpressured.
Secondary Choices
Attack is a consistent performer who should be in the hunt. Mohs has the class but is a much better turf horse; he remains a threat but must be viewed with caution on the dirt.
Longshots
Freedom Principle has won on the dirt before and could provide a massive upset if the favorites fail to handle the surface change.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The finale is wide open due to the surface change. Spread in your late Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. Cable Ready offers the best value.
Selections
Win: Cable Ready (2) – 25% confidence
Place: Gianluca Be Lucky (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Attack (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Freedom Principle (8) – 15% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samuel Marin continues to be the rider to watch at this meet. He has several high-probability mounts today, including China Blue in the 1st and Skate Away in the 8th. His ability to judge pace on the dirt is among the best in the colony. Samy Camacho, a perennial leader at Tampa, has a strong booking today with Always a Runner in the 3rd and My Lucky Angel in the 6th. Sonny Leon is often overlooked but excels on front-runners; his ride on Paved in Gold in the 6th will be critical.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Kathleen O’Connell has her horses ready to fire early in the card, particularly in the 1st race. Gerald Bennett remains a force in the claiming ranks, and his entries in the 2nd and 6th races are spotted perfectly for success. The arrival of Todd Pletcher for the 8th race with Skate Away signals high intent, as Pletcher wins at a high percentage when shipping into Oldsmar. Saffie Joseph Jr. also brings a live runner in Forged Steel, setting up a clash of the titans in the feature race.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best value on the card can be found in the 9th race with Cable Ready. While many will gravitate toward the turf pedigrees, this horse has the grit for a dirt battle. The strongest multi-race banker is Alrasikh in the 7th; the surface move from turf to dirt makes him nearly unbeatable if he runs to his previous dirt figures. A recommended Pick 4 starting in Race 6 would be: 4,7 / 4 / 5,6 / 1,2,5,8. This keeps the ticket affordable while covering the chaos of the surface changes.
