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The Saturday, February 7, 2026 card at Tampa Bay Downs is a headline event for the season, featuring a stacked lineup highlighted by the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a key prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby and the Triple Crown trail. The eleven-race card also includes the Suncoast Stakes for three-year-old fillies (a Kentucky Oaks qualifier), the Pelican Stakes for sprinters, and the Minaret Stakes for female sprinters. With large fields and top-tier connections like Todd Pletcher, Brad Cox, Chad Brown, and Irad Ortiz Jr. shipping in to challenge the local colony, this is a prime betting opportunity. The rail on the turf is set at 12 feet, which typically preserves the ground and offers fair running for all styles.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Oldsmar calls for ideal racing conditions. Expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-70s, ensuring a fast main track. The turf course, with the rail out at 12 feet, should be firm. This rail setting often aids horses who can save ground on the turns, though it does not strictly eliminate closers if the pace is honest. The dirt surface at Tampa is known for being sandy and somewhat cuppy; however, on big stakes days, the maintenance team often has it playing tight and fast.
Track and Post Position Bias
On the Tampa dirt oval, the inside paths are generally advantageous, particularly in sprint races like the Pelican and Minaret. Horses that can secure position near the rail without getting trapped often outperform those hung wide on the turns. In two-turn dirt routes like the Sam F. Davis, speed carries well, but a contested pace can set up late runners.
For the turf races at 1 1/16 miles with the rail at 12 feet, outside posts (8 and higher) can be a disadvantage due to the short run into the first turn. Horses drawing wide will need to use speed to clear or drop back to save ground. Handicappers should downgrade horses stuck in posts 10-12 unless they possess superior tactical speed.
1st Race
Post Time: 12:10 PM
Pace Analysis
The day begins with a claiming event on the turf. Mad Dog N Joe from the rail and Spanish Noble from the outside should show some early interest, but the pace appears moderate. Uncle Truly possesses tactical speed that should allow him to sit the perfect trip just behind the leaders.
Key Contenders
Uncle Truly looks to be the horse to beat in the opener. With Antonio Gallardo aboard for trainer Juan Arriagada, this gelding drops into a claiming tag that fits him well. He has the tactical speed to navigate the traffic that often plagues these large turf fields. Fidelightcayut draws the 9 hole but has shown flashes of ability that fit this class level. If he can overcome the wide draw, his closing kick will be dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Growth Capital is an interesting entrant for trainer Jose Antonio Vargas. The horse has back class and gets Samy Camacho, who knows this course as well as anyone. If he can find his old form, he is a major player. Smart Striker is a consistent check-earner for the Gerald Bennett barn. While he often finds one or two better, he is a must-use in vertical exotics.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Uncle Truly to win, but protect with exactas using Fidelightcayut and Growth Capital.
Selections
Win: Uncle Truly (4) – 35% confidence Place: Fidelightcayut (9) – 20% confidence Show: Growth Capital (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: Smart Striker (5) – 10% confidence
2nd Race
Post Time: 12:40 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming sprint should feature a hot pace. Yes I’m Jess from the rail and Bench Boy just to his outside will likely gun for the lead. R Delray, drawn in post 8, also has speed figures that suggest he will be involved early.
Key Contenders
R Delray is the clear standout here for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Irad Ortiz Jr. This barn and jockey combination strikes at a high percentage, and the horse finds a soft spot to break his maiden. The outside post in a sprint is favorable, allowing Ortiz to see how the break unfolds and stalk the inside speed. Oh’ What a Day for Gerald Bennett is a logical threat. Bennett is the king of the Tampa claiming ranks, and this horse should improve in his second start.
Secondary Choices
Bench Boy draws well and has enough early zip to be a factor. If the favorite falters, he could pick up the pieces. Uncle Zeb drops in class and adds blinkers (implied by equipment changes often seen in this spot), which could wake him up.
Betting Strategy
R Delray will likely be a short price. A straight win bet is the safe play, or single him in early Pick 4/5 tickets.
Selections
Win: R Delray (8) – 45% confidence Place: Oh’ What a Day (4) – 25% confidence Show: Bench Boy (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Uncle Zeb (5) – 5% confidence
3rd Race
Post Time: 01:10 PM
Pace Analysis
Another turf route with a full field. Drama Chorus is a veteran who knows how to win on the front end. Expect him to try and wire the field. Peace Not War and Surprise Package will likely apply pressure, ensuring the pace is honest.
Key Contenders
Drama Chorus is a course horse specialist. Despite his age, he remains competitive at this level and could steal this on the front end if allowed to settle. Royal Luck gets the services of Antonio Gallardo and drops into a spot where his closing kick should be effective. The pace setup benefits him if Drama Chorus gets engaged early.
Secondary Choices
Create Trouble for Rick Dutrow is a wildcard. If he draws in and runs, the class drop is significant. Surprise Package has been running against tougher company and gets a positive jockey switch.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive race. A box of Drama Chorus, Royal Luck, and Create Trouble is a solid approach.
Selections
Win: Drama Chorus (5) – 28% confidence Place: Royal Luck (9) – 22% confidence Show: Create Trouble (12) – 15% confidence Alternative: Surprise Package (10) – 10% confidence
4th Race – Minaret Stakes
Post Time: 01:41 PM
Pace Analysis
A small but quality field of six for this sprint stakes. Mystic Lake and Admiral Hopper both possess ample early speed. They will likely hook up early, potentially setting it up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Mystic Lake is the class of the field. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat riding, she has graded stakes experience that towers over this group. Even if pressured, she likely has the quality to put away Admiral Hopper and hold off closers. Ms. Bucchero is the main danger. She loves this track and has a devastating late kick. If the pace melts down, she will be the one flying late under Irad Ortiz Jr.
Secondary Choices
Admiral Hopper is fast and dangerous but might be compromised by the presence of Mystic Lake. Sandy’s Garden is a consistent mare who picks up checks but might be slightly outclassed for the win.
Betting Strategy
An exacta box of Mystic Lake and Ms. Bucchero is the strongest play.
Selections
Win: Mystic Lake (1) – 40% confidence Place: Ms. Bucchero (4) – 35% confidence Show: Admiral Hopper (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Sandy’s Garden (6) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Suncoast Stakes
Post Time: 02:11 PM
Pace Analysis
This Kentucky Oaks prep features a clash of titans. Tremont Tammy has speed from the rail, but Zany and Kadabra for Todd Pletcher will be forwardly placed. Life of Joy for Brad Cox is likely to sit a stalking trip.
Key Contenders
Life of Joy looks like a budding star for Brad Cox. Flavien Prat takes the mount, suggesting they are serious about this spot. Her ability to rate and finish makes her ideal for the mile and 40-yard distance. Zany is the Pletcher “A” runner with Irad Ortiz Jr. She has been working well and fits the profile of past Pletcher winners in this race.
Secondary Choices
Kadabra, the other Pletcher entrant, cannot be ignored with Samy Camacho aboard. She may be the value play if the money flows heavily to the top two. Tremont Tammy will try to take them gate to wire but faces substantial pace pressure.
Betting Strategy
Bet Life of Joy to win. Use Zany and Kadabra in trifectas.
Selections
Win: Life of Joy (5) – 35% confidence Place: Zany (3) – 30% confidence Show: Kadabra (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Tremont Tammy (1) – 10% confidence
6th Race
Post Time: 02:42 PM
Pace Analysis
A maiden special weight on dirt. Emerging Market draws inside and should use that position. Powershift and Make My Day for Pletcher will ensure a brisk pace.
Key Contenders
Emerging Market for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat is a formidable combination. Brown’s dirt maidens at Tampa often run to their odds, and this one looks well-spotted. Powershift is the Pletcher runner with Irad Ortiz Jr., a signal of intent. The battle between Brown and Pletcher often decides these races.
Secondary Choices
Municipal for Saffie Joseph is an interesting longshot. Drawn outside, he will need to work out a trip, but the barn is heating up. Make My Day is the “other” Pletcher but gets Camacho, a top local rider.
Betting Strategy
Exacta box the Brown and Pletcher runners (Emerging Market and Powershift).
Selections
Win: Emerging Market (2) – 33% confidence Place: Powershift (3) – 30% confidence Show: Make My Day (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: Municipal (10) – 10% confidence
7th Race
Post Time: 03:13 PM
Pace Analysis
This turf allowance has plenty of speed signed on. Princess Bettina and Explosive Lady will likely vie for the lead. This should set up well for a closer like City Girl or Souper Williwaw.
Key Contenders
City Girl (FR) represents the Chad Brown turf dominance. With Prat aboard, she will likely settle mid-pack and unleash a turn of foot that this field cannot match. Souper Williwaw gets Irad Ortiz Jr. and draws the outside, but her class suggests she fits right in with these.
Secondary Choices
Minty is a consistent runner for Mark Casse who rarely runs a bad race. She should be in the trifecta mix. Princess Bettina is dangerous if she can clear, but the pace pressure looks too high today.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on City Girl.
Selections
Win: City Girl (FR) (2) – 38% confidence Place: Souper Williwaw (11) – 25% confidence Show: Minty (7) – 15% confidence Alternative: Princess Bettina (4) – 10% confidence
8th Race
Post Time: 03:43 PM
Pace Analysis
A dirt sprint with a muddy pace scenario. Warrior’s Pride is a veteran speedball who will go. Roar of the Beast also has early foot. The pace should be fast.
Key Contenders
Roar of the Beast for Saffie Joseph and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the horse to beat. He has the versatility to sit just off Warrior’s Pride and pounce on the turn. Kirin for Jose D’Angelo has been running good numbers and gets Camacho. He draws well in the middle of the gate.
Secondary Choices
Warrior’s Pride is a knockout threat if he shakes loose, but he is getting older and may not hold off the younger legs. Life Is Precious is a consistent check-earner for Bennett.
Betting Strategy
Roar of the Beast looks like a potential single in horizontal wagers.
Selections
Win: Roar of the Beast (6) – 35% confidence Place: Kirin (5) – 25% confidence Show: Warrior’s Pride (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Life Is Precious (1) – 10% confidence
9th Race
Post Time: 04:13 PM
Pace Analysis
A maiden turf route for three-year-old fillies. These races are often chaotic. Tax Holiday and Libero give Chad Brown a strong hand. The pace is likely to be slow to moderate as young horses stretch out.
Key Contenders
Tax Holiday (GB) draws the rail for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. European imports from this barn in maiden special weights are a 50% proposition almost automatically. Libero, the other Brown runner with Irad Ortiz Jr., is equally dangerous. It is a coin flip between the two stablemates.
Secondary Choices
Celebrity Warrior (IRE) for Todd Pletcher is the spoiler. She has pedigree and connects that demand respect. Mid Summer for Shug McGaughey will likely take money but may need a race.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Box the two Chad Brown runners (Tax Holiday and Libero).
Selections
Win: Tax Holiday (GB) (1) – 30% confidence Place: Libero (5) – 30% confidence Show: Celebrity Warrior (IRE) (13) – 15% confidence Alternative: Mid Summer (7) – 10% confidence
10th Race – Pelican Stakes
Post Time: 05:00 PM
Pace Analysis
The Pelican is always a burner. Concrete Glory and track record holder types often show up here. Concrete Glory has blazing speed and will be sent by Irad Ortiz. Track Mate also has speed. Expect a sub-22 opening quarter.
Key Contenders
Concrete Glory is a horse for the course. Saffie Joseph has him in peak form, and Irad Ortiz stays aboard. He can win on the lead or sitting second. Track Mate is a classy operator who ships in for George Arnold. If the pace is too hot, he has the class to run them down.
Secondary Choices
Chrome Ghost is a Gerald Bennett runner who always fires at Tampa. He is a trifecta must-use. Wound Up has the closing kick to pick up pieces if the leaders collapse.
Betting Strategy
Concrete Glory is the most likely winner on the card.
Selections
Win: Concrete Glory (3) – 45% confidence Place: Track Mate (5) – 25% confidence Show: Chrome Ghost (8) – 15% confidence Alternative: Wound Up (4) – 10% confidence
11th Race – Sam F. Davis Stakes
Post Time: 05:30 PM
Pace Analysis
The feature race. Confessional for Brad Cox should show speed from the inside. Renegade and The Puma will also be forward. The pace should be legitimate but not suicidal, giving the stalkers a fair shot.
Key Contenders
Renegade looks like the latest Todd Pletcher derby prospect. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he fits the profile of past winners of this race (like Litigation or Destin). He should sit a perfect stalking trip. Confessional is the main threat. Brad Cox does not ship here for the scenery. If he clears early, he could be hard to catch.
Secondary Choices
Epic Desire, the second Pletcher, is a solid backup. The Puma has shown flashes of talent and could improve at a price.
Betting Strategy
Renegade is the selection to win. Play an exacta box with Confessional.
Selections
Win: Renegade (6) – 35% confidence Place: Confessional (1) – 30% confidence Show: Epic Desire (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: The Puma (3) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. is in town for the big stakes, and his presence usually signals “go” time for the barns he rides for (Pletcher, Joseph). When Irad is on a horse that normally has a local rider, it is a significant upgrade. Flavien Prat is the go-to rider for Chad Brown on turf and Brad Cox on dirt. His patience is unmatched, and he is particularly dangerous in the route races today. Samy Camacho and Antonio Gallardo are the kings of the local colony. In the non-stakes races, they often provide better value than the shipping superstars, as they know the nuances of the Tampa oval better than anyone.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Pletcher dominates the three-year-old route stakes at Tampa historically. In the Sam F. Davis and Suncoast, his runners are automatic contenders regardless of odds. Gerald Bennett is the barn to watch in the claiming and lower-level allowance races. His horses are almost always fit and spotted to win. Chad Brown is lethal in turf maiden and allowance races. Any horse he enters in a grass race today (Races 7, 9) must be respected.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day: Race 10, Concrete Glory. He has the speed figures and the track affinity to dominate this field. Best Value Play: Race 1, Uncle Truly. He drops in class and gets a top local rider in a race that is wide open. Exotic Play: The Late Pick 4 (Races 8-11) is the target.
- Race 8: 6
- Race 9: 1, 5, 13
- Race 10: 3
- Race 11: 1, 6 This ticket structure leans on two singles (Roar of the Beast and Concrete Glory) to keep costs down while covering the chaotic turf maiden race.
