Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
We have a nine-race card on tap for this Sunday at Oldsmar with a mix of dirt and turf action. The feature race is the 9th, a $55,500 Allowance on the turf for older horses. The card also features a competitive Maiden Special Weight for three-year-olds in the 8th race. The claiming ranks are well-represented, offering plenty of betting opportunities with several horses taking significant class drops or stretching out in distance.
The rail on the turf course is set at 12 feet, which typically encourages fair running but can tighten the turns slightly, favoring horses with tactical speed who can save ground.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Sunday in Oldsmar calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low 70s. It is expected to be a pleasant day for racing.
Track Condition:
- Dirt: Fast. The surface at Tampa has been playing fair, though moisture levels from overnight humidity can sometimes tighten the track early in the card.
- Turf: Firm. With the rail out at 12 feet, the course should be in excellent shape.
Track Bias:
- Dirt (1 Mile 40 Yards): The two-turn distance on the main track often favors horses with tactical speed who can secure position before the first turn. Deep closers often struggle unless the pace is meltdown-hot.
- Turf: The Tampa turf course with the rail out generally plays fair, though ground-saving trips are at a premium. Horses forced four or five wide on the far turn often have too much ground to make up against competent leaders.
Jockey and Trainer Notes and Insights
- Juan Arriagada (Trainer): Starts the day with Conspiracy Fact in the 1st. Arriagada’s barn has been consistently dangerous with claiming horses dropping in class or maintaining form.
- Antonio Gallardo (Jockey): He pairs with Arriagada in the 1st and has a key mount in the 9th (Charles J). Gallardo is exceptional at judging pace on the Tampa dirt.
- Gerald Bennett (Trainer): The perennial leading trainer sends out Spun to Purfection in the 6th. Bennett’s horses dropping into conditioned claiming ranks are almost automatic contenders.
- Samy Camacho (Jockey): Has a busy card including Stormy Mitole (2nd), She Takes Cash (5th), and Goncora (9th) for Chad Brown. Camacho is currently riding in top form, particularly on turf routes.
- Chad Brown (Trainer): Ships in Goncora (GB) for the 9th and Arraigned for the 8th. Brown’s turf string at Tampa is always formidable, and his entrants in maiden special weights and allowances command respect.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
- Best Bet: Race 6 – Far Above (11). This horse is taking a significant class drop from the $16,000 level down to $8,000 non-winners of two. The outside post is a slight concern, but the class relief should be the difference maker.
- Value Play: Race 8 – Sir Gar d’Lyon (5). In a race packed with well-bred types, this runner showed promise in December. If the tote board ignores him in favor of the Brown and Joseph runners, he offers great exotic value.
- Exotic Strategy: The Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) offers a blend of reliable favorites and open fields. Singling Far Above in the 6th allows for a deeper spread in the contentious 8th and 9th races.
1st Race – Claiming $10,000
Pace Analysis
This 1 Mile 40 Yard route features a small field of six. Chaz the Chief and Conspiracy Fact possess the tactical speed to control the early tempo. Greyzer has the rail and should be sent to protect position, potentially leading to a contested pace if the outside runners press hard early.
Key Contenders
Chaz the Chief (2) looks like the horse to beat here. Coming out of a tougher $16,000 non-winners of three contest on January 16, he finds a much softer spot today. His tactical speed plays well at this distance, and the drop in class is a major positive signal from the barn.
Conspiracy Fact (4) was scratched from an $8,000 claiming race on January 14 and now reappears at the $10,000 level. While the price hike is unusual, the Arriagada/Gallardo connection is potent (hitting at a high percentage together). If he is healthy, he fits right in with this group.
Secondary Choices
Greyzer (1) draws the rail and gets a positive setup. He needs to avoid getting shuffled back into the first turn. If he can hold his position, he has a chance to grind out a share of the money.
Longshots
Denying (5) and Copazo (6) would need to improve significantly on speed figures to challenge the top two, but in a small field, anything can happen if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy
Focus on a Win bet on Chaz the Chief. Exacta box 2-4.
Selections
Win: Chaz the Chief (2) – 45% confidence Place: Conspiracy Fact (4) – 30% confidence Show: Greyzer (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Copazo (6) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Claiming $5,000
Pace Analysis
Stormy Mitole projects as the primary speed from the inside. Shabam from the outside post also has early foot and will likely have to send hard to clear the field, which could set up a hot pace.
Key Contenders
Stormy Mitole (1) is the clear speed of the speed. Drawing the rail in a mile and 40-yard race is a massive advantage for a horse that likes to be on the engine. If she breaks clean, she could take this field gate to wire.
Captured Darling (6) was entered and scratched on February 1, so she is ready to run. She has shown the ability to stalk and pounce. If the pace duel between Stormy Mitole and Shabam heats up, she will be the beneficiary.
Secondary Choices
Woods Hole (2) is a grinder who will appreciate any pace meltdown. She rarely wins but often hits the board.
Longshots
Ruxton Rocks (4) has been inconsistent but fits this class level on her best day.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Stormy Mitole. If the odds are too short, look to key her in the first leg of the Daily Double.
Selections
Win: Stormy Mitole (1) – 40% confidence Place: Captured Darling (6) – 25% confidence Show: Woods Hole (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Shabam (7) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Maiden Claiming $25,000
Pace Analysis
A sprint at 6 furlongs often brings chaos in maiden claiming ranks. Magala from the rail and Blazing Affair appear to have the most early zip.
Key Contenders
Blazing Affair (6) has flashed speed in previous starts and finds a group that lacks depth. With Sonny Leon aboard, expect an aggressive ride.
Bellini Gold (2) has been working steadily. In a race void of standout form, the first-time starters or lightly raced horses often improve drastically. She looks well-placed here.
Secondary Choices
Magala (1) draws the rail. If she breaks poorly, her chances are toast, but a clean break puts her in the mix for the exotics.
Longshots
Bit of Frost (5) for trainer Victoria Oliver could be a sleeper. Oliver’s horses often improve with experience and distance, but she might be sharp enough to pick up pieces late in a sprint.
Betting Strategy
This is a “spread” race in multi-race wagers. Small win bet on Blazing Affair.
Selections
Win: Blazing Affair (6) – 30% confidence Place: Bellini Gold (2) – 25% confidence Show: Magala (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Bit of Frost (5) – 15% confidence
4th Race – Maiden Claiming $25,000
Pace Analysis
Sisterlithic showed enough in the morning to suggest she has speed, and coming out of a scratched MSW spot suggests the connections were looking for an easier spot initially but settled here. Solitary Passion should also be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Sisterlithic (1) was scratched from a much tougher Maiden Special Weight race on Jan 10. Showing up here in a Maiden Claiming $25,000 is a massive drop in class intent. This is the “confident placement” move often seen to get a win.
Ivey My Love (2) has shown flashes of ability and fits well at this level. Ademar Santos is a solid journeyman who can get the most out of these types.
Secondary Choices
First Hathor (3) for Kathleen O’Connell is a must-use. O’Connell is a high-percentage trainer at Tampa with young horses.
Longshots
Vali Vali Val (8) is a bomb who could clunk up for third or fourth.
Betting Strategy
Sisterlithic is a likely single in vertical wagers if she stays near her morning line odds.
Selections
Win: Sisterlithic (1) – 50% confidence Place: First Hathor (3) – 20% confidence Show: Ivey My Love (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Solitary Passion (5) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Claiming $16,000 (Turf)
Pace Analysis
Laloba Feroz (if she draws in or runs) and Tic Tic Tic Boom are veteran mares. Rose View has speed but is stuck on the also-eligible list history in the notes. Assuming a standard field, Tic Tic Tic Boom is a closer who needs pace. The pace scenario looks murky, which often favors the horse who gets the first run.
Key Contenders
Tic Tic Tic Boom (5) is a class act who has faced much tougher company in her career. While she is getting older (8 years old), her late kick is dangerous at this level.
She Takes Cash (3) was on the AE list recently but gets in here. Camacho riding is a huge plus. She fits the conditioned claiming profile perfectly.
Secondary Choices
True Myth (1) draws the rail. If she can save ground, she has a legitimate shot to hit the board at a price.
Longshots
Singalong Kayla (6) could surprise if the turf is firm and she gets a clean trip.
Betting Strategy
Exacta box 3-5. This is a competitive turf race.
Selections
Win: Tic Tic Tic Boom (5) – 35% confidence Place: She Takes Cash (3) – 25% confidence Show: True Myth (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Rose View (2) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Claiming $8,000
Pace Analysis
Far Above and Spun to Purfection look to be the main players. The race is at 1 Mile 40 Yards.
Key Contenders
Far Above (11) is the standout. Dropping from a $16,000 NW2L into an $8,000 NW2L is a plunge in class. Despite the wide post (11), the long run to the first turn at Tampa should allow Richard Mitchell to find a position. The class relief is too big to ignore.
Spun to Purfection (1) trains under Gerald Bennett. She has the rail and speed. Bennett at this level is deadly (20%+ win rate). She is the main danger to the top choice.
Secondary Choices
Super Engreida (2) has been facing similar company and running evenly. A good underneath play for trifectas.
Longshots
Blue Fashion (3) adds Centeno, which is a significant jockey upgrade.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Far Above. Exacta 11-1.
Selections
Win: Far Above (11) – 45% confidence Place: Spun to Purfection (1) – 30% confidence Show: Super Engreida (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Blue Fashion (3) – 5% confidence
7th Race – Claiming $16,000 (Turf)
Pace Analysis
A 1 Mile turf event. Magnolia Wind and Compass Fire likely show early interest.
Key Contenders
Bottle Rocket (FR) (5) for Michael Trombetta is a fascinating entry. The French-bred mare should appreciate the firm turf and this class level. Trombetta’s shippers are always live.
Classicals Finale (3) gets Daniel Centeno. She carries top weight (123) which is a sign of her good recent form.
Secondary Choices
Timeless Rose (4) is a 9-year-old veteran who knows this oval well. She won’t be far away at the finish.
Longshots
Tinta Roja (11) scratched from a Gulfstream race to run here. That is often a sign the trainer thinks they can win this specific spot.
Betting Strategy
Trifecta Box: 3, 4, 5.
Selections
Win: Bottle Rocket (FR) (5) – 30% confidence Place: Classicals Finale (3) – 25% confidence Show: Timeless Rose (4) – 20% confidence Alternative: Tinta Roja (11) – 15% confidence
8th Race – Maiden Special Weight
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong sprint for 3-year-olds is loaded with quality. Arraigned and Ramajay will likely attract money. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Arraigned (3) represents the Chad Brown barn. With Samy Camacho aboard, this one will be heavily bet. Brown excels with debut or second-time starters in these spots.
Ramajay (1) for Saffie Joseph Jr. is the main rival. Joseph has a high strike rate at Gulfstream and Tampa with young horses. Drawing the rail at 7 furlongs requires a sharp break.
Secondary Choices
Sir Gar d’Lyon (5) scratched from a Dec 31 race and reappears here. He has experience and might catch the big two napping if they get into a duel.
Agendum (4) for Derek Ryan is a sneaky runner. Ryan does well with firsters at decent prices.
Longshots
Hulkamania (10) draws outside but Centeno takes the mount. Worth a look in exotics.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Box 1-3. Win bet on Arraigned.
Selections
Win: Arraigned (3) – 35% confidence Place: Ramajay (1) – 30% confidence Show: Sir Gar d’Lyon (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Hulkamania (10) – 10% confidence
9th Race – Allowance (Turf)
Pace Analysis
The feature race at 1 Mile on the turf. Late Call and Charles J have speed. Goncora (GB) will be looking to stalk and pounce.
Key Contenders
Goncora (GB) (2) is a Chad Brown trainee. European imports in the Brown barn at this level are lethal. Camacho rides. She is strictly the one to beat.
Tiz Freedom (7) for Bill Mott is a serious threat. Mott’s horses often improve with age, and this 4-year-old should be ready to fire off the bench.
Secondary Choices
Charles J (6) with Gallardo has the speed to steal it if the top two look at each other too long.
Late Call (1) draws the rail and will save all the ground.
Longshots
Double Neat (8) scratched from a starter handicap at Gulfstream to run here.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Goncora (GB). Daily Double 3-2 (from Race 8).
Selections
Win: Goncora (GB) (2) – 40% confidence Place: Tiz Freedom (7) – 25% confidence Show: Charles J (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: Late Call (1) – 10% confidence
