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Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida presents a nine-race card on Sunday, March 1, 2026, with a first post time of 12:35 PM ET. This is Day 46 of the 2025-2026 winter meet, which opened November 19. Today's card features a mix of claiming and allowance optional claiming races with purses ranging from $20,500 to $55,500. The headline race is the second, an allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies carrying a $55,500 purse.
The most significant development for today's card is the decision to take all turf races off the turf. Races originally carded for the turf course — Race 5 (maiden claiming, 1 1/16 miles), Race 7 (claiming, 1 1/16 miles), and Race 9 (claiming, 1 mile) — will all be contested on the main dirt track. This is a major shake-up that dramatically alters the complexion of nearly a third of the card. Bettors who prepared their handicapping around turf form must now reassess every runner in those three races for dirt ability.
Multiple scratches have also reshaped the card. In Race 2, both Adios Tootsie (1) and Questionable Decisions (4) have been scratched, gutting the race of its two most prominent contenders. Race 4 has lost several entrants. Race 5 has lost Chefeta (5) and Ship Of Fools (13). Race 7 loses Handsome Fox (11) and others. Race 8 sees Westminster (5) and Battle Warrior (8) scratched. Race 9 loses Morgs World (7) and Katie King (11), the latter of whom was the morning-line favorite.
Today is also Mouse's Kids and Family Day at the track, which tends to boost attendance and handle.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Sunday, March 1 in Tampa calls for mostly sunny skies with a high of 81 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 60 degrees, with only a 4% chance of precipitation. This follows Saturday's unsettled weather that included afternoon shower activity and humidity. The 10 Tampa Bay weather report confirms sunshine returns for Sunday.
Despite the improving weather, the effects of Saturday's moisture are evident. The main dirt track is listed as “Good” rather than “Fast”. A “Good” track indicates light moisture remains in the surface, making it slightly looser and slower than a true fast track. This condition can favor horses that handle some give in the ground and may blunt the advantage of pure speed types. As the afternoon sun dries the surface, the track could improve toward fast by the later races, so monitoring early results for surface tendencies is essential.
The turf course has been declared “Off Turf” for the entire card. This is the second consecutive day without turf racing, as Saturday's card also had no turf. The portable rail was set at 30 feet for the races that have been switched from turf to dirt.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Tampa Bay Downs is generally considered one of the fairer tracks in the country, but clear and exploitable tendencies have emerged during the 2025-2026 meet.
Through February 22, the meet-long track bias data from Brisnet shows the following patterns across 108 six-furlong dirt races: 35% wire-to-wire winners with early speed (E) as the best running style and middle posts performing best. In 62 seven-furlong dirt races, 19% went wire-to-wire with an early/presser (E/P) style dominant and outside posts favored.
In dirt sprints overall, early speed has been the dominant running style, winning approximately 49% of races through the meet. Posts 1 through 3 hold a meaningful advantage, winning roughly 45% of the time, though in the most recent weeks posts 4 through 6 have surged significantly and stalkers remain competitive.
In dirt routes, early runners have won approximately 42 to 44% of races, with inside posts 1 through 3 winning at a 50% clip. Posts 4 through 6 are close behind at 40%, making outside posts a genuine disadvantage in two-turn dirt races. This creates a measurable edge for horses with natural speed drawn inside.
With today's “Good” track, the bias toward early speed in sprints could moderate somewhat. Wet or drying tracks tend to open up the surface and allow closers a better chance, particularly if the rail becomes deep or tiring. Bettors should watch the first two races carefully for clues about how the surface is playing before committing heavily on later races.
Race 1 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $26,500
Post Time: 12:35 PM ET
Fillies and mares four years old and upward, claiming $10,000. Seven entered.
Pace Analysis
This is a six-furlong sprint and the meet bias strongly favors early speed at this distance. Easy Come Easy Go (1) has been running against similar and figures to be forwardly placed from the rail. Heavenly Dancer (6) also shows early speed. With only a couple of legitimate pace setters, the pace should be moderate, which generally favors the front-end types at Tampa in sprints.
Key Contenders
Easy Come Easy Go (1) is the consensus top choice, listed as the win pick on multiple tip sheets at a morning line of 8-5. This 7-year-old mare by Majesticperfection draws the inside post, which aligns perfectly with the sprint bias favoring posts 1 through 3. Trained by Renaldo Richards with Israel Rodriguez aboard, she has been competitive in this class and should be able to secure a forward position from the rail.
Eros's Girl (4) gets strong support as the place pick. This 7-year-old mare trained by M. Anthony Ferraro has Charlie Marquez up. Her recent form includes competitive efforts at this level, and she profiles as a stalker who can pick up the pieces if the pace is contested.
Secondary Choices
Heavenly Dancer (6) rounds out the top three on the tip sheet. Trained by Jon Arnett with Sonny Leon — the 2022 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey — in the irons, this 5-year-old mare has tactical speed and a rider who knows this track extremely well. Arnett's barn has been productive throughout the meet.
Fields Of Green (3) is the Racing Dudes selection at 5-1 morning line odds. Trained by Enrique Hernandez with Gabriel Maldonado up, this pick provides value if you believe the middle posts have been trending better in recent weeks. She is the value play in this race.
Longshots
Thelastbulletsmine (2) at 9 years old is a longshot but has enough back class to sneak into an exacta or trifecta at a price. Dancing Raquel (5) appears on the scratch watch as an also-eligible and may not draw into the race. Miss Interpatation (7) is a first-time starter at this level for trainer Leslielyn Hardesty and could be live at big odds if she takes to the dirt surface.
Betting Strategy
The exacta boxes suggested are 1-4, 4-6, and 6-2. A straightforward approach is keying Easy Come Easy Go (1) on top of 4 and 6 in exactas, then using 2 and 3 as trifecta fill underneath.
Selections
Win: Easy Come Easy Go (1)
Place: Eros's Girl (4)
Show: Fields Of Green (3)
Race 2 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $55,500
Post Time: 1:05 PM ET
Fillies three years old. Originally a six-horse field, but with the scratches of Adios Tootsie (1) and Questionable Decisions (4), this field is reduced to just four runners.
Pace Analysis
The reduced field changes the pace scenario considerably. Turkish Pistachio (5) is a closing type by nature, while Permian Basin (6) also prefers to come from off the pace. Flowko (2) is the slowest closer in the group. This race could set up as a slow-paced affair with nobody wanting to lead, which paradoxically could make whoever gets to the front the one to beat.
Key Contenders
Turkish Pistachio (5) now becomes the main contender with the scratches. Samuel Marin, the meet's runaway leading jockey with 83 winners this season, has the mount. Trained by Carlos David, she ships in off a win at Gulfstream Park at 6.5 furlongs on dirt and has been second twice at Gulfstream at the sprint distance. Her closing style profiles with the highest win probability at 31%. With Marin aboard, she demands top billing.
Questionable Decisions (4) is scratched. With her out of the race, the next logical contender is Flowko (2) for trainer Rory Miller with Jose Ferrer aboard. Flowko has hit the board in 50% of career starts with one win, four seconds, and four thirds from eight starts. Her last two efforts were both runner-up finishes at Tampa on the turf at one mile, so the question is whether she can transfer that form to a six-furlong dirt sprint. Ferrer is a veteran rider with thousands of career wins.
Secondary Choices
Permian Basin (6) for Chad Stewart has won once from four starts and has a 50% in-the-money rate. She won going seven furlongs on dirt at Tampa and was second going six furlongs on dirt. Jesus Lopez Castanon's overall numbers at the meet are modest, which is a concern. However, at a likely overlaid price in a short field, she has place and show value.
Bakers Island (3) won her only start, taking a maiden race going a mile on the turf at Tampa. Moving to a six-furlong dirt sprint is a significant question mark. Trainer Chad Stewart also conditions Permian Basin. At 20-1 morning line, she is a true wildcard.
Longshots
In a four-horse field, there are no true longshots, but Bakers Island (3) at her morning line price represents the bomb in the race.
Betting Strategy
With only four runners, exotic wagering is limited. An exacta box of 5 with 2 and 6 covers the most likely combinations. The win bet on Turkish Pistachio (5) in a short field may offer poor value, so consider spreading in exactas. The short field makes this a good race to pass on for multi-race wager purposes or single aggressively.
Selections
Win: Turkish Pistachio (5)
Place: Flowko (2)
Show: Permian Basin (6)
Race 3 — Claiming, 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt, Purse $20,500
Post Time: 1:37 PM ET
Fillies and mares four years old and upward, claiming $5,000, which have not won since September 1. Eight entered.
Pace Analysis
This is a route race on dirt, and the track bias data heavily favors inside posts in dirt routes at Tampa, with posts 1 through 3 winning at a 50% rate. The pace should be moderate with several runners who prefer to stalk. Viking Queen (5) could show early speed from the middle, and Calisue (1) from the rail may also be forwardly placed. An honest pace benefits closers, but the route bias still gives the edge to those in forward positions.
Key Contenders
Viking Queen (5) gets the top nod on the tip sheet. This 8-year-old veteran mare is trained by Steven Cahill with Samuel Marin aboard, and any horse carrying the meet's leading jockey at this claiming level demands respect. She has experience at the distance and class.
Calisue (1) draws the rail, which is prime real estate for dirt routes at Tampa. Trained by Joel Campbell with Israel Rodriguez up, this 6-year-old mare benefits from the pronounced inside-post bias and the blinkers she wears. She finished fourth in her most recent effort.
Secondary Choices
Kikilove (8) is the Racing Dudes pick at 9-2 morning line odds. Trained by Tena Birdwell with Marcos Meneses aboard, she appears on multiple tip sheets in the frame. She has been competitive in this class and the outside post is less of a concern in a route where she can settle into position.
Slew Crown (2) with Ricardo Feliciano up for trainer Anthony Rini draws post 2, another favorable inside post for the route. She is lightly raced and could offer value in the exotics.
Longshots
Once An Eagle (4) carries only 116 pounds with apprentice Kleiner Mejias aboard for trainer Enrique Hernandez. The weight break is significant in a route race for tired mares, and she could outrun her odds at a price.
That's My Cat (7) is on the scratch watch as an also-eligible and may not draw in. If she does run, she is a longshot.
Betting Strategy
The suggested exactas are 5-1, 1-8, and 8-2. Key Viking Queen (5) and Calisue (1) in exactas both ways, with Kikilove (8) and Slew Crown (2) as trifecta fill. This is a low-level claimer where form can be unreliable, so spreading is wise.
Selections
Win: Viking Queen (5)
Place: Calisue (1)
Show: Kikilove (8)
Race 4 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,500
Post Time: 2:08 PM ET
Four year olds and upward which have never won two races, claiming $8,000. Originally eight entered, but with scratches this field will be significantly reduced.
Pace Analysis
Multiple runners in this race show early speed, including Cyberbeast (8) and Bourbon Street Boy (6). Koctel War (7) is profiled as a fastest stalker type. With contested early speed, the pace could be honest to hot, potentially setting up a stalker or mid-pack runner. However, the six-furlong sprint bias still favors early position at Tampa.
Key Contenders
Wajda (4) is the consensus best bet on the Keeneland tip sheet and the Racing Dudes selection. This 5-year-old gelding trained by Kevin Rice ships in from Aqueduct where he was fifth and second in his last two starts. At 2-1 morning line, he drops significantly in class and brings the highest earnings in the field at $216,250. His stalking style fits the expected pace scenario. Martina Rojas has the mount.
Koctel War (7) is a key contender with Samuel Marin aboard for trainer Antonio Sano. Any time the meet's leading jockey rides in a low-level claimer, attention is warranted. Sano is a respected conditioner and Koctel War has shown tactical speed in his recent form, finishing third going seven furlongs on dirt at Tampa last out.
Secondary Choices
Cyberbeast (8) for Juan Arriagada, the meet's leading owner, with Israel Rodriguez up carries the second-highest morning line favoritism at 5-2. He won going six furlongs on dirt at Tampa two starts back but was well beaten in a seven-furlong effort last out. The cutback to six furlongs helps.
Profitability (5) for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is a 31-time starter with only one win but consistent minor awards. Charlie Marquez has the mount. At 6-1 on the morning line, he could be in the frame at a price.
Longshots
Bourbon Street Boy (6) with Wesley Ho up for Joel Campbell shows early speed and has been hitting the board at shorter distances. At 10-1 he could be involved if allowed a soft lead. He is a reasonable inclusion in trifectas and superfectas.
Betting Strategy
The exacta boxes suggested are 4-7, 7-5, and 5-8. Key Wajda (4) and Koctel War (7) in exactas, then spread to Cyberbeast (8) and Profitability (5) in trifectas. This race looks like a prime spot for Wajda (4) as a single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Wajda (4)
Place: Koctel War (7)
Show: Cyberbeast (8)
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt (Off Turf), Purse $28,500
Post Time: 2:39 PM ET
Maidens, fillies three years old, claiming $32,000. Originally 13 entered for the turf, now moved to dirt with scratches reducing the field. Chefeta (5) is scratched by stewards and Ship Of Fools (13) is scratched as also-eligible.
Pace Analysis
The switch from 1 1/16 miles on turf to approximately one mile on dirt is a profound change. Horses that were entered for their turf pedigrees now face a completely different test. The inside posts should be strongly favored in this dirt route. Several of these maidens have limited dirt form, making this a highly unpredictable race. The pace could be slow as many of these fillies may lack tactical speed on dirt.
Key Contenders
Band On The Run (1) is the morning-line favorite at 2-1 and the Racing Dudes pick. Trained by Arnaud Delacour, a noted shipper from the mid-Atlantic circuit, with Daniel Centeno aboard, she draws the rail which is ideal for dirt routes at Tampa. She finished second on the turf at Tampa in her most recent start. The key question is her dirt ability, but Delacour does not ship horses to race lightly, and Centeno's experience at this track is unmatched with over 1,600 career wins here.
Niecey (11) gets strong support on the tip sheet as the win pick, listed at 3-1 morning line. The outside post is a concern in a dirt route, though.
Secondary Choices
Beautiful Emma (3) is pegged at 4-1 morning line and has support on multiple handicapping sheets. Cipriano Gil rides for trainer Gerard Ochoa. She has shown some ability in prior starts and the post 3 draw is favorable for dirt routes.
La Rodada (4) at 9-2 with Sonny Leon up for Huber Dominguez also draws an inside post. She could be forwardly placed and benefit from the inside draw advantage.
Longshots
She's Lit (7) at 9-2 morning line for trainer Joseph Orseno with Samuel Marin up brings the leading jockey's presence to bear on a maiden claimer. Marin wins at a 22% clip at the meet and elevates anything he rides. She could outrun her odds on the dirt switch.
First Hathor (10) with Charlie Marquez aboard for Kathleen O'Connell at 6-1 is also worth noting. O'Connell has won a training title at Tampa and knows how to place her horses.
D Orbie's Girl (9) at 20-1 is a deep price but could benefit from the chaos of the surface switch if she has any hidden dirt form.
Betting Strategy
Maiden races on off-turf days are inherently unpredictable. Spread widely in exactas and trifectas. The tip sheet suggests 11-4, 4-3, and 3-1 boxes. Band On The Run (1) is the most logical top pick from the rail draw, but including She's Lit (7) and Beautiful Emma (3) underneath broadens coverage. This is a race to bet conservatively on win wagers and spread in exotics.
Selections
Win: Band On The Run (1)
Place: Beautiful Emma (3)
Show: Niecey (11)
Race 6 — Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,500
Post Time: 3:10 PM ET
Fillies three years old, claiming $20,000. Seven entered. Note: Rules For Three (4) has a weight change to 120 pounds.
Pace Analysis
The seven-furlong distance at Tampa favors an early/presser style with outside posts performing best through the meet. Prancin Inthe Dark (7) is profiled as the fastest leader in the race. Coqueta Blue (2) also shows mid-pack speed. If Prancin Inthe Dark (7) gets loose on the lead, she could be very tough to catch. Cash The Check (1) from inside could also be involved early.
Key Contenders
Prancin Inthe Dark (7) is the Keeneland tip sheet best bet and the Racing Dudes pick at 8-5 morning line. Trained by Jon Arnett with Cipriano Gil up, this filly has won twice from eight starts with a 75% in-the-money rate, which is outstanding consistency. She was second last out going six furlongs and third before that at 6.5 furlongs, both on dirt at Tampa. The step up to seven furlongs suits her speed figure progression. Gil has been climbing the jockey standings this meet. The outside post at seven furlongs is actually favorable per the track bias data.
Coqueta Blue (2) for Antonio Sano with Samuel Marin aboard is the other key contender. Two wins from eight starts with Marin's 26% win rate at the meet in the saddle make her dangerous. She won at seven furlongs on dirt at Tampa two starts back. Her mid-pack running style gives her tactical options.
Secondary Choices
Cash The Check (1) for trainer Tony Wilson with Wesley Ho up won her last start going a mile and 40 yards on dirt at Tampa. She cuts back in distance here, which could be a concern, but her recent confidence off that victory and the inside draw make her a factor.
Rules For Three (4) for Arthur Agostini with Israel Rodriguez up won her debut at 6.5 furlongs on dirt at Tampa and has been competitive since. At 5-1 morning line, she offers fair value.
Longshots
Somerset Mia (6) has won one of four starts and placed in three of four going the one-turn mile at Tampa. The cutback to seven furlongs is a question, but she has underlying talent. At 10-1 morning line, she is a live longshot for exotic inclusion.
Betting Strategy
This is a race where taking a stand is warranted. Prancin Inthe Dark (7) is the most logical horse in the race and a consensus top pick across handicappers. The suggested exactas are 7-1, 1-2, and 2-6. Key Prancin Inthe Dark (7) on top with Coqueta Blue (2) and Cash The Check (1) in exactas, adding Rules For Three (4) for trifectas.
Selections
Win: Prancin Inthe Dark (7)
Place: Coqueta Blue (2)
Show: Rules For Three (4)
Race 7 — Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (Off Turf), Purse $24,000
Post Time: 3:42 PM ET
Four year olds and upward which have never won two races, claiming $25,000. Originally 11 entered for turf, now moved to dirt with Handsome Fox (11) and others scratched.
Pace Analysis
The off-turf switch changes everything here. Several of these horses were entered specifically for their turf form. On the dirt at a route distance, inside posts are king at Tampa this meet. Reteko (2) shows the fastest early speed profile. Hands Of Time (4) also shows early foot. With multiple speed types, the pace could be honest, but the route bias still gives the edge to forward position and inside draws.
Key Contenders
Hands Of Time (4) is the Racing Dudes pick at 2-1 morning line, and the tip sheet lists him strongly. Trained by Miguel Clement, who wins at an exceptional 29% rate, with Samuel Marin aboard. The Clement/Marin combination is lethal, and Hands of Time draws a favorable inside post for routes. His dirt form includes starts at Saratoga and Delaware Park. This horse was originally entered for the turf, but his dirt pedigree and connections suggest he can handle the switch.
Ski Bum (7) at 5-1 morning line is the Keeneland tip sheet top pick. He won his last start going 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Gulfstream and has been second on dirt at Gulfstream as well. Trained by Nicholas Tomlinson, who shows a remarkable 33% win rate from limited starters, with Jesus Lopez Castanon aboard. He carries the 123-pound topweight, which reflects his quality edge. He has proven dirt form.
Secondary Choices
Reteko (2) at 5-2 morning line has a 53% in-the-money rate from 17 career starts. Trained by Scooter Davis, who wins at 33% with his runners, he draws post 2 which is ideal for dirt routes. His early speed and inside draw make him a threat if allowed to set a comfortable pace.
Thingamabob (6) at 8-1 for Teresa Pompay with Daniel Centeno up won on the turf at Tampa two back and was third last out. The dirt switch is a question, but Centeno's experience adds value.
Longshots
Maruvy (9) at 6-1 with Sonny Leon up for Jose Francisco D'Angelo comes off turf form at Gulfstream but was on the scratch watch with a veterinarian note. If cleared to run, his closing style on a potentially tiring dirt surface late in the day could be dangerous. However, the vet scratch concern is a significant red flag.
Kid Kaos (5) at 20-1 actually won his last start going a mile and 40 yards on dirt at Tampa. That is directly relevant form for this off-turf scenario. At his price, he is a must-use underneath in trifectas and superfectas.
And Thats My Story (8) also won going a mile and 40 yards on dirt at Tampa last out. At 20-1 he is another dirt winner in a race full of turf specialists converting to dirt.
Betting Strategy
The off-turf angle creates enormous volatility. Horses with proven dirt form should be upgraded and turf-only types downgraded. The suggested exacta boxes are 7-2, 2-6, and 6-4. Consider keying Hands Of Time (4) and Ski Bum (7) on top, then spreading underneath to Reteko (2), Kid Kaos (5), and And Thats My Story (8) — the runners with actual dirt wins.
Selections
Win: Hands Of Time (4)
Place: Ski Bum (7)
Show: Reteko (2)
Race 8 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,500
Post Time: 4:12 PM ET
Four year olds and upward which have never won two races, claiming $8,000. Originally nine entered, but Westminster (5) and Battle Warrior (8) are scratched. Weight changes: Nyikos (1) now carries 120 lbs, K Paz (3) carries 110 lbs.
Pace Analysis
With scratches, this is a reduced field. Nyikos (1) is a fast leader type who should be on or near the lead from the rail. Fly Commander (9) is a fast stalker. Redbird Nation (7) also shows stalking speed. The sprint bias still favors early speed, and Nyikos (1) from the rail could control the pace.
Key Contenders
Nyikos (1) is the tip sheet win pick with Samuel Marin aboard for trainer Gregory Sacco. Sacco is a well-established conditioner who wins at 18% at the meet. Nyikos won at Tampa going six furlongs on dirt two starts back and was second the start before that. He draws the rail and has the leading jockey — this is a strong combination in a sprint.
Redbird Nation (7) is the Racing Dudes pick at 5-2 morning line and the tip sheet runner-up. Trained by Juan Arriagada with Cesar Gonzalez aboard, this ridgling has a 57% in-the-money rate from 14 career starts. He profiles as the fastest stalker in the race. The 111-pound impost with the apprentice jockey allowance gives him a weight edge.
Secondary Choices
Fly Commander (9) at 5-1 morning line for Gerard Ochoa with Daniel Centeno up won his last start going seven furlongs at Tampa. The cutback from seven to six furlongs could help his tactical speed. He has the third-highest earnings in the field and an experienced jockey in Centeno.
K Paz (3) at 6-1 with Scott Spieth aboard now carries only 110 pounds after the weight change. He has never won from 17 starts but has hit the board in 41% of them. He is a deep closer who is best used underneath in exotics.
Longshots
Career Risk (2) at 15-1 for Kevin Rice with Martina Rojas up won going seven furlongs on dirt at Tampa two starts back. He has proven dirt form and could outrun his odds in a reduced field.
Leigh's Last Hero (6) at 20-1 with apprentice Ronaldo Rodriguez up has a strong 25% win rate from the jockey despite the modest overall numbers. The apprentice weight allowance of 111 pounds is an edge.
Betting Strategy
The suggested exactas are 1-7, 7-9, and 9-3. Key Nyikos (1) and Redbird Nation (7) in exactas both ways, then spread to Fly Commander (9) and K Paz (3) for trifectas. The Marin factor on Nyikos (1) makes him a strong single in multi-race bets.
Selections
Win: Nyikos (1)
Place: Redbird Nation (7)
Show: Fly Commander (9)
Race 9 — Claiming, 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt (Off Turf), Purse $24,300
Post Time: 4:43 PM ET
Fillies and mares four years old and upward which have never won three races, claiming $16,000. Originally 14 entered for turf, now on dirt with key scratches including morning-line favorite Katie King (11) and Morgs World (7).
Pace Analysis
With Katie King (11) scratched, this race is blown wide open. The off-turf switch to a route on dirt again favors inside posts and forward position. Honorable Chill (10) and Nicky Jolene (12) are both profiled as early speed types, so there could be contested early fractions. My Little Wildcat (8) and Bella Mendy (5) show mid-pack running styles. The pace scenario should set up for stalkers and mid-pack runners if the early speed types duel.
Key Contenders
My Little Wildcat (8) at 9-2 morning line gets the nod with Israel Rodriguez aboard for trainer Alejandro Mendieta. She won on the turf at Tampa last out and has hit the board in half her career starts. More importantly, she has dirt form — she was fourth going a mile and 40 yards on dirt at Tampa in her penultimate start, making her one of the few in the field with directly relevant recent dirt route experience. She carries 121 pounds, the topweight minus Katie King.
Secret Victory (1) at 5-2 morning line is trained by Gerald Bennett, one of the winningest conditioners in Tampa Bay Downs history with eight consecutive training titles at one point. Daniel Centeno, the all-time wins leader at Tampa, has the mount. She draws the rail, which is prime real estate for dirt routes. Her last start was on dirt at Tampa, providing a relevant form line.
Secondary Choices
Bella Mendy (5) at 10-1 morning line is the tip sheet's top pick. She won her last start going 6.5 furlongs on dirt at Tampa and has the highest career earnings in the field at $163,345. Charlie Marquez rides for trainer Nik Goodwin, who wins at 16% with a 53% in-the-money rate at the meet. The question is whether she can sustain her speed over the route distance.
Das Ist Alles Ally (9) at 5-1 with Samuel Marin aboard for trainer Michael Dini is a mid-pack closer. She has been competitive on turf at Tampa and the presence of Marin, the leading rider, gives her a significant jockey upgrade. If the pace is honest and the track favors closers by the last race, she could rally for a share.
Longshots
Honorable Chill (10) at 10-1 is the Racing Dudes pick. Sonny Leon rides for James Lawrence II. She is profiled as the fastest early speed in the race, and if she can steal the lead on a drying track, she could wire the field at a generous price. Her outside post is a concern in routes, but if the field shapes up with contested speed elsewhere, she could slip away.
Buddhist Prodigy (4) at 6-1 with Cipriano Gil up has won two of eight career starts and profiles as a stalker. Gil has been riding well this meet and the inside post is favorable.
Nicky Jolene (12) was on the scratch watch but appears to remain in the race. She is a front-runner type at 10-1.
Betting Strategy
With the favorite scratched and the off-turf switch, this is the race on the card with the most potential for a big exotic payout. The tip sheet suggests exactas of 5-8, 8-1, and 1-4. Use Secret Victory (1) and My Little Wildcat (8) as the structural backbone with Bella Mendy (5), Das Ist Alles Ally (9), and Honorable Chill (10) spreading underneath for trifectas and superfectas.
Selections
Win: Secret Victory (1)
Place: My Little Wildcat (8)
Show: Das Ist Alles Ally (9)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samuel Marin is the dominant force at the 2025-2026 Tampa Bay Downs meet, holding a 28-win lead with 83 victories over runner-up Samy Camacho. Last season, Marin won the riding title with 108 winners, his first Tampa championship at just 23 years old. Now 24, he is winning at approximately a 22% rate and hits the board over 56% of the time. He rides with supreme confidence, and trainers across the colony want him on their horses. His mounts today include Turkish Pistachio (5) in Race 2, Koctel War (7) in Race 4, She's Lit (7) in Race 5, Coqueta Blue (2) in Race 6, Hands Of Time (4) in Race 7, Nyikos (1) in Race 8, and Das Ist Alles Ally (9) in Race 9. When Marin rides at this level, any horse he is aboard should be given serious consideration.
Daniel Centeno is the all-time leader in victories at Tampa Bay Downs with 1,605 career wins at the track and 59 stakes victories. Now 53, the Venezuelan veteran is in his 21st season at Oldsmar and recently earned the Jockey of the Month award after riding 10 winners in a two-week stretch. He holds the record for most riding titles at the track with six, tied with Mike Manganello. Centeno rides Secret Victory (1) in Race 9 and Thingamabob (6) in Race 7, among others. His knowledge of Tampa's turns and tendencies is unmatched.
Sonny Leon, the 2022 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey aboard 80-1 shot Rich Strike, is a regular rider at Tampa Bay Downs this meet. He retains the humility and patience he displayed in that famous Derby win. He rides Heavenly Dancer (6) in Race 1, My Lil Flirt (3) in Race 6, Maruvy (9) in Race 7, and Honorable Chill (10) in Race 9.
Cipriano Gil has been climbing the standings as the fourth-leading Venezuelan jockey at the track. He has secured multiple wins for leading trainer Juan Carlos Avila and continues to earn mounts from top barns. He rides Prancin Inthe Dark (7) in Race 6, the designated best bet on the tip sheet.
Jose Ferrer is a veteran with over 7,400 career wins mentioned in connection with the Tampa jockey colony. He rides Flowko (2) in Race 2 and That's My Cat (7) in Race 3.
Israel Rodriguez has been a steady presence in the rider colony and handles several live mounts today including Easy Come Easy Go (1) in Race 1, Cyberbeast (8) in Race 4, and My Little Wildcat (8) in Race 9.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Gerald Bennett has been one of the most dominant trainers in Tampa Bay Downs history, capturing eight consecutive training titles at one point. He conditions Secret Victory (1) in Race 9 and wins at a 16% rate with a strong 46% in-the-money percentage. His barn is always a factor in claiming races at this track.
Juan Arriagada is the reigning leading owner at Tampa and finished second in the trainer standings last season with 42 winners. He is currently near the top of both the owner and trainer standings this meet. He trains Cyberbeast (8) in Race 4 and Redbird Nation (7) in Race 8.
Kathleen O'Connell won the 2023-2024 training title with 48 winners and holds the record for most wins by a trainer on a single card at Tampa with four. She conditions My Lil Flirt (3) in Race 6 and First Hathor (10) in Race 5.
Antonio Sano, a well-traveled conditioner who has saddled runners in top races nationwide, trains Koctel War (7) in Race 4 and Coqueta Blue (2) in Race 6. His runners are live whenever Marin rides for him.
Miguel Clement trains Hands Of Time (4) in Race 7 and posts an exceptional 29% win rate with a 60% in-the-money clip. The Clement/Marin combination is one of the strongest on the card.
Gregory Sacco trains Nyikos (1) in Race 8 with an 18% win rate and 48% in-the-money percentage. Sacco is a well-established veteran conditioner who knows how to place claiming horses effectively.
Arnaud Delacour sends out Band On The Run (1) in Race 5. Delacour is a shipper from the mid-Atlantic circuit, and when he sends runners to Tampa, he expects them to be competitive. Centeno gets the call, further underscoring the barn's confidence.
Jon Arnett trains Prancin Inthe Dark (7) in Race 6 and was mentioned as a productive barn throughout the meet. He also conditions Heavenly Dancer (6) in Race 1 with Sonny Leon aboard.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The three off-turf races (5, 7, and 9) are the chaos zones on today's card and offer the best opportunities for large exotic payouts. In all three, horses with proven dirt form should be heavily favored over turf-only types, regardless of morning-line odds. This simple filter alone can separate contenders from pretenders.
The best bet on the card is Prancin Inthe Dark (7) in Race 6, designated as such on the Keeneland tip sheet. She has the leading running style in a seven-furlong race where the bias favors early/presser types from outside posts. With a 75% in-the-money rate, strong connections, and a favorable post, she is the most logical winner on the card.
The best value play on the card is Wajda (4) in Race 4, the other Keeneland best bet. He ships in from a higher class at Aqueduct and drops sharply into an $8,000 claimer. He has earned $216,250, far more than his rivals. The class drop alone makes him dangerous.
For multi-race wagers, the late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) offers the most opportunity. Using Prancin Inthe Dark (7) as a single in Race 6, then spreading in the off-turf Race 7, using Nyikos (1) or Redbird Nation (7) in Race 8, and spreading widely in the off-turf Race 9 is the optimal structure. A sample ticket: Race 6: 7 / Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 / Race 8: 1, 7, 9 / Race 9: 1, 5, 8, 9, 10. That is a 75-combination ticket at $1 per combination costing $75.
For the early Pick 4 (Races 1-4), consider: Race 1: 1, 3, 4 / Race 2: 5 (single in a short field) / Race 3: 1, 5, 8 / Race 4: 4, 7, 8. That is a 27-combination ticket at $1 per combination costing $27.
The “Good” track condition is a wildcard factor all day. If early results show the rail is dead and closers are running well, adjust mid-card by upgrading stalkers and closers in the later races. Conversely, if the first two races are won wire-to-wire, lean into the speed bias even more aggressively for the remaining races.
Watch for Samuel Marin's win rate throughout the day. When he is “in the zone,” he can dominate an entire card as he demonstrated early in the meet with four and five-win days. If he wins the first couple he rides, pressing his mounts the rest of the day becomes a viable strategy.
The scratches in Race 2 removing the two favorites have created a spot where Turkish Pistachio (5) at a short price may not offer sufficient value. If her odds compress to even money or lower, consider a win bet on Flowko (2) or Permian Basin (6) at larger odds and use Turkish Pistachio (5) only in exactas.
Finally, the off-turf Race 9 with the favorite Katie King (11) scratched is the single best exotic wagering opportunity on the card. The field is large, the form is muddled by the surface switch, and prices should be generous across the board. Spread widely here in trifectas and superfectas to capture what could be the best payout of the afternoon.
