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Today’s eight-race card at Thistledown features a high-quality stakes race to open the program, with the $75,000 Emerald Necklace Stakes for Ohio-bred two-year-old fillies highlighting the afternoon. First post time is 12:50 PM EDT with racing continuing through approximately 4:20 PM.
Weather and Track Conditions
Excellent racing conditions are expected at Thistledown today with sunny skies, temperatures reaching a high of 58-62°F and a low around 40°F. East winds of 5-10 mph should provide minimal impact on racing. The dirt track is listed as “Fast” – ideal conditions for handicapping.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Emerald Necklace Stakes (12:50 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $75,000 | Field: 9 fillies
Key Contenders:
- Dunn’s River (3): Ricardo Feliciano aboard for trainer Ricardo Bailey, this filly comes in as the expert pick at 9-5 morning line odds. Bailey is a proven stakes trainer with solid recent form.
Secondary Choices:
- Her Own Shadow (2): Luis Raul Rivera rides for Larry E. Smith, offering potential value as an alternative.
- Perfect Angel (7): Alexander Chavez teams with Jason DaCosta in this competitive stakes field.
Pace Analysis: The short field should set up well for a speed-favoring setup with several fillies capable of pressing early fractions.
Selection: Dunn’s River (3) to win, with Her Own Shadow (2) and Perfect Angel (7) for place/show consideration.
Race 2 – Claiming $7,500 (1:20 PM)
Distance: 5½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $18,300 | Field: 10 horses
Key Contenders:
- Condemnation (10): Expert pick at 6-1 morning line with Alexander Chavez aboard. This gelding offers solid value potential in a competitive claiming field.
Secondary Choices:
- Cavaletto (4): Erik Barbaran rides for Robert Gorham, showing consistent form.
- Worthy Opponent (7): T.D. Houghton teams with Candace Huffman.
Longshots to Consider:
- Spirit of Akron (3): Roberto Perez rides for Ricardo Bailey at potentially generous odds.
Pace Analysis: The large field should create honest early pace with several speed horses likely to contest the early lead.
Selection: Condemnation (10) for the win.
Race 3 – Allowance (1:50 PM)
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt | Purse: $31,400 | Field: 6 horses
Key Contenders:
- Brick Ambush (5): Jose Bracho rides for Jeffrey Radosevich as the expert selection at 8-5. The shorter field should benefit closers on the stretch.
Secondary Choices:
- Royal Spirit (6): John McKee aboard for Eric Reed brings solid experience.
- Extradition (1): Alexander Chavez teams with Jason DaCosta as a potential upset candidate.
Pace Analysis: The smaller field may lack early pace, setting up perfectly for late-running types like Brick Ambush.
Selection: Brick Ambush (5) to win.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming $12,500 (2:20 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $15,000 | Field: 6 fillies
Key Contenders:
- Flying Phoenix (1): T.D. Houghton rides for Ricardo Bailey as the 8-5 expert choice. Bailey’s expertise with maidens makes this a strong play.
Secondary Choices:
- Late for a Date (2): Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard for Caryn Vecchio.
- Maam Cross (3): Alexander Chavez teams with Nestor Rivera.
Selection: Flying Phoenix (1) to win.
Race 5 – Claiming $50,000 (2:50 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $32,000 | Field: 8 horses
Key Contenders:
- Ovid (7): Chelsey Keiser rides for David Wolochuk as the expert pick at 5-2. This represents solid value in the higher-level claiming race.
Secondary Choices:
- Strike Plate (5): Noel Vigil aboard for Joshua Langley.
- Swayback Mobil (1): Erik Barbaran rides for Rey Juarez-Mendoza.
Selection: Ovid (7) for the win.
Race 6 – Claiming $5,000 (3:20 PM)
Distance: 5½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $12,600 | Field: 6 fillies and mares
Key Contenders:
- Thee New Beginning (6): Ricardo Feliciano rides for trainer Benny R. Feliciano as the 7-2 expert selection. The trainer-jockey combination adds confidence.
Secondary Choices:
- Elika (4): T.D. Houghton teams with Ricardo Bailey.
- My Suzie Q (1): Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard for Jason DaCosta.
Selection: Thee New Beginning (6) to win.
Race 7 – Claiming $7,500 (3:50 PM)
Distance: 5½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $14,000 | Field: 6 horses
Key Contenders:
- Improbable First (2): Luis Raul Rivera rides for Michael Rone as the 2-1 expert choice. Strong jockey-trainer combination in this competitive claiming event.
Secondary Choices:
- Rock the Red (1): Erik Barbaran aboard for Robert Gorham.
- Tonight (4): Jose Bracho teams with Jeffrey Radosevich.
Selection: Improbable First (2) for the win.
Race 8 – Claiming $7,500 (4:20 PM)
Distance: 5½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $13,500 | Field: 8 horses
Key Contenders:
- Eileen’s Desperado (1): Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for Richard Rettele as the 2-1 expert pick. Solid choice to close out the card.
Secondary Choices:
- Prinsipito (7): Yan Aviles aboard for Raul Quinones offers 3-1 value.
- Heart of an Angel (6): T.D. Houghton teams with Richard Rettele.
Selection: Eileen’s Desperado (1) to win.
Jockey Notes and Insights
T.D. Houghton appears on multiple mounts today including Flying Phoenix in Race 4, showing trainer confidence across the card. Alexander Chavez has three mounts including the stakes race opener, indicating strong booking for the afternoon. Ricardo Feliciano teams with the father-son Feliciano training operation in Race 6, a positive combination.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Ricardo Bailey sends out multiple horses today including stakes contender Dunn’s River and maiden claimant Flying Phoenix. Bailey shows a 12% win rate with 38% in-the-money percentage across his career, with recent form showing 13% wins in 2025. Jason DaCosta has entries in multiple races, while the Rettele barn appears twice with different family members training.
Best Wagering Strategies
Daily Double Opportunities: Consider connecting Race 1 winner Dunn’s River with Race 2 selection Condemnation for a potentially lucrative early double.
Pick 3 and Pick 4 Plays: The middle races (3-4-5) featuring Brick Ambush, Flying Phoenix, and Ovid offer solid foundation horses for multi-race wagers.
Value Plays: Race 2’s Condemnation at 6-1 and Race 5’s Ovid at 5-2 represent the best value opportunities based on expert analysis.
