Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Turfway Park presents a challenging 10-race card for this Friday night “Under the Lights” session. The fields are full and competitive, a hallmark of the Holiday Meet. With a mix of maiden claimers, allowance optional claimers, and deep claiming fields, handicappers must navigate both class drops and surface suitability. The feature race is Race 9, a $102,000 Allowance Optional Claiming event for two-year-olds going one mile, which features promising juveniles from top barns like Brad Cox and Mark Casse.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: It will be a classic cold winter evening in Florence, Kentucky. The forecast calls for cloudy skies with a high of 35°F and dipping to a low of 23°F after sundown.
Track Condition: The Tapeta synthetic surface handles cold and moisture well. Expect the track to be rated Fast (Synthetic).
Track Bias:
- Sprints (6f – 6.5f): Historically, early speed and pressers (horses sitting 1-2 lengths off the pace) have an advantage. However, the cold weather can sometimes tighten the surface, allowing closers to make up ground if the pace is hot.
- Routes (1 Mile+): Inside posts can be advantageous due to the short run to the first turn in one-mile races. Horses with tactical speed who can save ground often outperform deep closers.
Race 1
Post Time: 5:55 PM ET
Distance: 1 Mile (Synthetic)
Class: Maiden Claiming $50,000
Pace Analysis
The pace appears moderate. Chuck’s Law has shown early foot in routes at Churchill Downs and projects to be on or near the lead. Noble Court also possesses tactical speed and should be involved early.
Key Contenders
Chuck’s Law (6-1): Trained by Mark Casse, this colt drops into maiden claiming for the first time. His speed figures at Churchill Downs suggest he fits well here, and the move to synthetic often wakes up Casse runners. He is the likely pacesetter or presser.
Noble Court (5-2): Brendan Walsh sends out this consistent runner who has flashed potential. Luan Machado takes the mount, a significant jockey upgrade. He should sit a perfect stalking trip just behind the leaders.
Secondary Choices
Magamak (6-1): The Steven Asmussen trainee adds blinkers and drops in class. While his form on dirt is mixed, the barn’s success rate with this move (Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming) is respectable.
Survivin’onaprayer (14-1): A price horse who could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
Selections
- Win: Chuck’s Law
- Place: Noble Court
- Show: Magamak
Race 2
Post Time: 6:25 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Synthetic)
Class: Claiming $8,000
Pace Analysis
Councilwoman Jilly and Cora’s Legacy look to be the primary speed. Ceebee should sit in the second flight.
Key Contenders
Cora’s Legacy (7-2): She has been facing tougher company at Horseshoe Indianapolis and should appreciate the class relief. Her tactical speed allows her to control her destiny in a race devoid of confirmed deep closers.
Ceebee (12-1): A consistent mare who has hit the board in nearly half her starts. She should get the jump on the deep closers and offers value.
Secondary Choices
Emerson’s Dream (5-1): A hard-knocking veteran who knows where the finish line is. She will be running late and benefits if the leaders duel.
Peacock Road (3-2): The morning line favorite (based on some projections) drops significantly in class. However, be wary of the plunge; sometimes it signals a lack of fitness.
Selections
- Win: Cora’s Legacy
- Place: Ceebee
- Show: Emerson’s Dream
Race 3
Post Time: 6:55 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Class: Maiden Claiming $30,000
Pace Analysis
Lolly Poppin is fast and will likely gun for the lead. Lel Ditty has also shown flashes of speed.
Key Contenders
Lolly Poppin (2-1): The clear horse to beat. She has the best early speed figures and faces a field with little resistance upfront. If she breaks clean, she could lead wire-to-wire.
Unrelenting (8-1): Makes her synthetic debut for William Cowans, a trainer who excels at Turfway. Her dirt form is decent, and she should be closing late.
Secondary Choices
Lel Ditty (3-1): Luan Machado rides. She has been inconsistent but has run well enough to hit the board here.
Union Empress (19-1): A bomb for the exotics who could pass tiring rivals late.
Selections
- Win: Lolly Poppin
- Place: Unrelenting
- Show: Lel Ditty
Race 4
Post Time: 7:25 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles (Synthetic)
Class: Claiming $16,000
Pace Analysis
Wonderful Justice and Tres Soles should ensure an honest pace. Karlwithanarl is a closer who needs a pace meltdown.
Key Contenders
Wonderful Justice (GB) (3-1): A Joe Sharp trainee who drops in class. He has back class and should find this group much easier than his recent assignments at Saratoga and Aqueduct.
Karlwithanarl (4-1): A synthetic specialist who loves this track. He will be flying late and is a must-use in exotics.
Secondary Choices
Big Paper (12-1): Luan Machado aboard. He has won at this level before and offers great value if the top two falter.
Tres Soles (8-1): Will be part of the early pace; a threat to hold on for a share.
Selections
- Win: Wonderful Justice (GB)
- Place: Karlwithanarl
- Show: Big Paper
Race 5
Post Time: 7:55 PM ET
Distance: 1 Mile (Synthetic)
Class: Maiden Special Weight $100,000
Pace Analysis
A race full of unknowns with many two-year-olds stretching out. Ravenous and Aguila Negra have shown tactical speed in sprints.
Key Contenders
Ravenous (7-2): Trained by Brendan Walsh with Luan Machado riding—a top percentage team at Turfway. He finished a close fourth in a similar spot last time and has every right to improve.
Aguila Negra (6-1): Ran well on debut and should move forward. The distance is a question mark, but the pedigree suggests he can handle it.
Secondary Choices
Drop Shot (10-1): Has been working well and comes from the George Arnold barn, which is capable of popping with a price horse.
Khetam (8-1): A well-bred runner who fits on paper.
Selections
- Win: Ravenous
- Place: Aguila Negra
- Show: Drop Shot
Race 6
Post Time: 8:25 PM ET
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Class: Claiming $25,000
Pace Analysis
One Timer is a very fast horse who will likely send from the gate. Explosively can sit close.
Key Contenders
One Timer (2-1): A class act dropping in for a tag. Larry Rivelli wins at a high clip with this move. If he retains any of his back class, he crushes this field.
Explosively (5-1): Consistent and loves the synthetic. He will be the one picking up the pieces if One Timer stops.
Secondary Choices
Itsinmyblood (6-1): Joe Sharp trainee who fits well at this level.
Memphis Slim (15-1): A price play for the bottom of the superfecta.
Selections
- Win: One Timer
- Place: Explosively
- Show: Itsinmyblood
Race 7
Post Time: 8:55 PM ET
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Class: Allowance
Pace Analysis
G T Five Hundred has speed, as does My Own. Expect a contested pace which could set it up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
G T Five Hundred (2-1): Mike Maker trainee who is in peak form. He has the speed to clear or sit just off, and Luan Machado is a perfect fit.
Proudly Hailed (GB) (5-1): European import who could take to the Tapeta. Watch the tote board for clues.
Secondary Choices
Sock It to Me (10-1): A solid synthetic runner who is always competitive.
Blue Coast (8-1): Conor Murphy barn is dangerous at Turfway.
Selections
- Win: G T Five Hundred
- Place: Proudly Hailed (GB)
- Show: Sock It to Me
Race 8
Post Time: 9:25 PM ET
Distance: 1 Mile (Synthetic)
Class: Claiming $15,000
Pace Analysis
Vino Caldo is a dedicated front-runner. Liberty Bay can press.
Key Contenders
Liberty Bay (7-2): Mark Casse / Luan Machado. A logical winner dropping into a conditioned claiming race. He has run well on synthetic at Woodbine.
Vino Caldo (12-1): The speed of the speed. If he gets loose on a moderate lead, he could steal it at a price.
Secondary Choices
Finn McSorley (5-2): Consistent sort who figures on numbers but often settles for minor awards.
Patronage (4-1): A deep closer who needs a pace collapse.
Selections
- Win: Liberty Bay
- Place: Vino Caldo
- Show: Finn McSorley
Race 9
Post Time: 9:55 PM ET
Distance: 1 Mile (Synthetic)
Class: Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500
Pace Analysis
Jupiter and Silent Tactic (both Casse) have speed. Valiant (Cox) can stalk.
Key Contenders
Valiant (5-2): Brad Cox trains, Fernando De La Cruz rides. He broke his maiden impressively and looks like a stakes horse in the making. The one to beat.
Silent Tactic (5-2): Mark Casse entry who has synthetic form from Woodbine. A major threat.
Secondary Choices
Jupiter (2-1): The other Casse. Fast and dangerous, but might get hooked in a duel.
Candy King (30-1): A bomb from Cherie DeVaux’s barn. Worth a look in exotics at a huge price.
Selections
- Win: Valiant
- Place: Silent Tactic
- Show: Candy King
Race 10
Post Time: 10:25 PM ET
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Class: Maiden Claiming $15,000
Pace Analysis
Need a Bit of Luck and Sugar Momma should be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Need a Bit of Luck (9-1): Drops to the bottom. If she has anything left, she beats this group.
Sugar Momma (7-1): Consistent at this low level.
Secondary Choices
A Long Winters Nap (5-1): Fits on speed figures.
Sassy Julia (15-1): A price play in a wide-open finale.
Selections
- Win: Need a Bit of Luck
- Place: Sugar Momma
- Show: A Long Winters Nap
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Luan Machado: The dominant rider at Turfway Park. He is riding extremely well, particularly for Brendan Walsh and Mark Casse. His mounts in Races 3, 5, 7, and 8 are all live.
- Walter Rodriguez: A rider to watch on front-runners. He gets horses out of the gate quickly.
- Fernando De La Cruz: Always dangerous on late runners and Brad Cox entries (e.g., Valiant in Race 9).
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Brad Cox: When he enters a horse at Turfway, it’s usually live. Valiant (Race 9) is a prime example.
- Mark Casse: A powerhouse on synthetic surfaces. Watch his entries in Races 1 (Chuck’s Law), 8 (Liberty Bay), and 9 (Silent Tactic).
- William Cowans: A trainer with a high strike rate at Turfway, especially with sprinters.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet: Race 6 – One Timer. He has a significant class edge and should handle this field.
Best Value: Race 8 – Vino Caldo (12-1). The potential lone speed in a race lacking pace pressure could lead to a wire-to-wire upset.
Pick 4 Strategy (Races 6-9):
- Race 6: 5
- Race 7: 11, 7
- Race 8: 1, 2, 13
- Race 9: 9, 13
- Cost for $0.50 ticket: $6.00
