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Turf Paradise presents an eight-race Tuesday card featuring a mix of thoroughbred and quarter horse action. The program is highlighted by several competitive claiming events on both the main track and the turf course. The feature race appears to be the 8th, an Allowance Optional Claiming event for fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs on the dirt. With a post time of 1:15 PM MST, handicappers should look for established connections like trainer Kevin Eikleberry and jockey Harry Hernandez to have a significant impact on the day’s results.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix calls for clear skies and mild temperatures typical for late December, with a high near 66 degrees and a low around 45. There is no precipitation expected, ensuring a fast main track and a firm turf course.
Track Bias Analysis
On the main dirt track, speed is generally king, especially in sprints (5 to 6 furlongs). Horses that can clear the field early or sit just off the pace in the “garden spot” often hold a distinct advantage. The inside posts (1-3) are particularly potent in these short races. In dirt routes (1 mile), speed is still dangerous, but stalkers can work out trips if the pace is contested.
For the turf course, specifically at the 1-mile distance, the layout is tight with a short run to the first turn. This dynamic heavily favors inside posts (1-4), as horses drawn outside (8+) often get hung wide losing valuable ground. While speed is always dangerous on firm turf, the profile here often allows patient closers to save ground and make a run in the stretch, provided they don’t get trapped behind traffic.
Race 1 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 350-yard Quarter Horse sprint will feature a scramble for the lead. Im Apollitcal Two and Lewie Jones both project as Fast Leaders who will look to break sharply and establish position. Famous Mobster brings a different style as a closer but will need a clean trip to run them down in such a short dash.
Key Contenders
Imm Beyond the Stars enters as a lukewarm morning line favorite at 5-2. This filly has shown flashes of speed as a “Fastest Closer” and may benefit if the front-end speed duels early. Famous Mobster is another major player who fits the track profile well and offers consistency in the superfecta slots.
Secondary Choices
Im Apollitcal Two (9-2) has the “Fast Leader” profile that often wins these short sprints if he can break cleanly. If he clears the field, he could be tough to catch. Lewie Jones (7-2) sits in a similar boat and will likely be part of the early pace scenario.
Betting Strategy
In Quarter Horse sprints, the break is everything. Look for Imm Beyond the Stars to sit just off the leaders and pounce. A small win bet on the favorite is reasonable, but the better value might be boxing the top three in exactas.
Selections
Win: Imm Beyond the Stars
Place: Famous Mobster
Show: Im Apollitcal Two
Race 2 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 1-mile turf event features Run Bryce Run breaking from the rail. With a running style of “Fastest Deep,” he may not gun for the lead but the rail draw forces his hand to save ground. No Ordinary Tiger and Wine Empire show speed figures that suggest they will be forwardly placed, potentially setting a moderate pace.
Key Contenders
Run Bryce Run is the clear horse to beat at 5-2. The rail draw at this distance is a massive advantage, and his late kick should be effective against this group. My Vino (3-1) is a consistent runner who figures to be in the mix late.
Secondary Choices
Supersonic Me (7-2) is a deep closer who will need some pace help but has the class to hit the board. Cancun Native (4-1) won a maiden race recently and steps up to face winners, which is always a test, but his form is good.
Betting Strategy
The rail post at 1 mile on the turf is statistically one of the best angles at Turf Paradise. Run Bryce Run has the post and the form. Use him as a key in all exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Run Bryce Run
Place: My Vino
Show: Supersonic Me
Race 3 Analysis
Pace Analysis
In this 6-furlong dirt sprint, Donna Wyn projects as the “Slowest Leader,” which might leave her vulnerable if challenged early. Travelin Witch and C Her Beauty are closers who will be looking for a pace meltdown. High Gunner has tactical speed and could sit the perfect trip.
Key Contenders
Travelin Witch (3-1) combines the powerful team of jockey Glenn Corbett and trainer Kevin Eikleberry. She has a strong “Fastest Closer” profile that should suit this race well. High Gunner (2-1) is the morning line favorite and drops in class, which is a significant angle.
Secondary Choices
Prettywittyandwise (7-2) is a mid-pack closer who consistently hits the board. She is a must-use in vertical wagers. Alexiana (5-1) has excellent in-the-money percentages and could surprise at a price.
Betting Strategy
The Eikleberry trainee Travelin Witch offers good value against the likely favorite High Gunner. An exacta box of those two is the logical play.
Selections
Win: Travelin Witch
Place: High Gunner
Show: Prettywittyandwise
Race 4 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 5-furlong dash is all about speed. Rock’n Awesome projects to be the controlling speed and will likely try to wire the field. Pingo draws the rail, which is a huge advantage at 5 furlongs, and will be forced to send.
Key Contenders
Rock’n Awesome (8-5) is the heavy favorite for a reason. His speed figures tower over this field, and he should be able to clear early. Pingo is the main danger from the inside post.
Secondary Choices
Ez Cowboy and Ez Racer are stablemates or similarly named runners that likely fill out the lower rungs of the ladder here. They will need the top two to falter to have a winning chance.
Betting Strategy
Don’t overthink this one. Rock’n Awesome is the class of the field. Single him in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Rock’n Awesome
Place: Pingo
Show: Ez Racer
Race 5 Analysis
Pace Analysis
Guiltyofhavingfun projects as the “Fastest Leader” in this 1-mile turf race. Historically, speed can steal races on the turf here if the course is firm and the fractions are moderate. Not a Word and Filly Pelli are slower types who will be chasing.
Key Contenders
Guiltyofhavingfun (5-2) is the horse to beat. Dropping in class and possessing the best early speed, she could lead them merry-go-round fashion. Royal Dusty (5-2) is the co-favorite and makes her turf debut after a win, which is a dangerous angle.
Secondary Choices
Striking Notes (5-1) is a mid-pack stalker who will be in the garden spot if the leaders collapse. Coconut Dreams (6-1) is a deep closer who needs a pace meltdown.
Betting Strategy
Speed holds on firm turf. Guiltyofhavingfun looks like the controlling speed. Bet her to win and use Royal Dusty as the main saver.
Selections
Win: Guiltyofhavingfun
Place: Royal Dusty
Show: Striking Notes
Race 6 Analysis
Pace Analysis
Lookout Pass draws the rail in this 1-mile dirt contest, which is advantageous. However, Randi Randi Randi and Glory N Thehighest show “Leader” profiles and will likely apply pressure. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Yogya (2-1) is the class of the field with high percentage connection in trainer Frank Lucarelli. As a “Fastest Closer,” the expected pace setup favors her perfectly. Glory N Thehighest (3-1) has speed and will look to take them as far as she can.
Secondary Choices
Chainsaw City (8-1) is a mid-pack type who hits the board often. Lookout Pass (20-1) is a longshot but the rail draw gives her a chance to save ground and hang around for a minor share.
Betting Strategy
Yogya is the most likely winner given the pace setup. Key her over Glory N Thehighest and Chainsaw City in exactas.
Selections
Win: Yogya
Place: Glory N Thehighest
Show: Chainsaw City
Race 7 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A full field of 11 going 1 mile on the turf. This is a chaotic race where post position is critical. Inside horses like Oh Angel and Sunglasses have a major edge over outside runners like Smiling Lady.
Key Contenders
Sunglasses (3-1) has a good post and fits well here. Go Stormin Girl (4-1) is a veteran who knows where the wire is.
Secondary Choices
Aliceshouseofheart (5-1) and Smiling Lady (9-2) are contenders on paper, but the outside posts for them make the task difficult. They will likely lose ground on the first turn.
Betting Strategy
Fade the outside horses. Focus on Sunglasses and Go Stormin Girl. This is a good race to spread in Pick 4/5 tickets.
Selections
Win: Sunglasses
Place: Go Stormin Girl
Show: Oh Angel
Race 8 Analysis
Pace Analysis
The day’s feature is a 6-furlong sprint. Fun Money projects as the “Fastest Leader” and will likely gun for the lead. I’m Telling Mom and Buzzworthy will be in hot pursuit.
Key Contenders
Fun Money (5-2) looks very tough here. The Justin Evans/Kevin Krigger combination is lethal, and her speed figures are tops in the field. Buzzworthy (5-1) is the stablemate or main rival who will be closing late.
Secondary Choices
I’m Telling Mom (3-1) is a consistent runner who rarely runs a bad race. She will be there to pick up the pieces if Fun Money stops.
Betting Strategy
The Evans barn holds a strong hand here. Fun Money is the speed of the speed. A win bet is the play.
Selections
Win: Fun Money
Place: I’m Telling Mom
Show: Buzzworthy
Jockey Notes and Insights
Harry Hernandez is currently riding in top form and is a must-use on any mount that is well-spotted. His ability to save ground on the turf is particularly noteworthy. Look for him to be aggressive on favorites.
Glenn Corbett continues to be a reliable veteran presence, especially when teaming up with trainer Kevin Eikleberry. Their win percentage together is consistently high.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Kevin Eikleberry remains a dominant force at Turf Paradise. When he enters a horse in a claiming sprint, it is usually well-meant.
Justin Evans is another high-percentage trainer to watch, particularly in the later races on the card. His horses often show improved speed off the claim.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day appears to be Run Bryce Run in Race 2. The combination of the rail draw, the distance, and the class relief makes him a standout.
For a value play, look at Travelin Witch in Race 3. If the pace heats up as expected, she could run past the favorites at a nice price.
In the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences, consider singling Rock’n Awesome in Race 4 to spread deeper in the more competitive turf races (Race 5 and 7).
