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Turf Paradise is celebrating its 70th season of live racing under new management, with industry veteran Tom Ludt at the helm as general manager. The track has undergone significant renovations including major improvements to the racing surface, which is critical for both performance and safety. Legendary track announcer Vic Stauffer, who has called more than 40,000 races at renowned tracks including Gulf Stream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Hollywood Park, has joined the broadcast team.
Today's card features an eight-race program with first post at 1:15 PM MT (3:15 PM ET). The card opens with two Quarter Horse allowance races over sprint distances before transitioning to a mix of Thoroughbred claiming, maiden optional claiming, and starter allowance events. The feature race is a one-mile turf claiming event to close the card.
Recent weeks have seen some track maintenance challenges at Turf Paradise, including drainage issues that led to several Tuesday cancellations in November. However, with the current dry conditions and maintenance work completed, the expectation is for safe racing surfaces throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
Phoenix is experiencing typical early December weather with partly cloudy skies and temperatures reaching a high of 68°F during racing hours, dropping to 45°F by evening. There is no precipitation expected with winds light at approximately 6 mph. This dry, mild weather pattern is ideal for racing.
Based on the most recent track reports, expect the main dirt track to be rated Fast and the turf course to be rated Firm. The sandy loam cushion over compacted clay base should provide consistent, safe footing for all runners. The absence of moisture in the forecast means track conditions should remain unchanged throughout the card.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Turf Paradise does not exhibit an overwhelming or extreme bias, but several patterns emerge from historical analysis that handicappers should consider.
On the dirt surface for sprint races at 6 furlongs and below, approximately 46% of winners between recent meetings have won wire-to-wire, suggesting that early pace is vital over shorter distances. Inside posts provide ground-saving advantages without creating overwhelming bias, with posts one through four each winning approximately 15% of races. Speed horses and tactical runners near the pace generally hold an advantage in dirt sprints.
For turf racing on the seven-furlong course and one-mile configuration, there is a stronger inside bias. Approximately 39% of turf winners come from posts one or two, especially in shorter turf races and larger fields. Post nine has historically been the weakest position on the turf, with very few winners from that draw. Given the short run to the first turn on the turf course, tactical speed from inside posts represents a significant advantage in today's one-mile turf finale.
For Quarter Horse races over 300-350 yards, gate speed and early acceleration are paramount. Inside posts provide a measurable edge in these quick sprints where breaking cleanly determines outcomes.
1st Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
1:15 PM MT
This is a 350-yard Quarter Horse allowance for Arizona-bred three-year-olds and upward that have never won three races. The purse is $15,600 with seven runners entered.
Pace Analysis
Quarter Horse sprints at 350 yards are decided in the first few jumps out of the gate. This field features several horses with early speed, making the break critical. Fancey Like and Kj Flashy Girl profile as the fastest early, which should ensure contested fractions right from the start. In short Quarter Horse sprints, the horse that breaks cleanest and finds their stride first typically prevails.
Key Contenders
Fancey Like enters as the clear morning-line favorite at 2-1. This three-year-old filly has demonstrated remarkable consistency with a 70% in-the-money rate across ten career starts. Her fastest leader running style suits the 350-yard distance perfectly, and she has shown recent form at Turf Paradise with a second-place finish in her most recent outing over 350 yards. Trainer Matthew Fales has an 11% win rate with strong consistency numbers, and jockey Cerapio Figueroa knows this filly well.
Kj Flashy Girl represents the main threat at 7-2 morning line. She brings the highest career earnings in the field at $115,269 from sixteen starts, with a 19% win rate. Her fastest leader style mirrors the favorite, and her recent second-place finish at 300 yards at Turf Paradise shows current form. The Torres-Casas barn has been active at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Bestprincessreturns at 5-1 offers value as a consistent performer with a 50% in-the-money rate in twelve career starts. She finished fourth last out over 300 yards and third prior over 350 yards at this venue, suggesting she can hit the board again. Jockey Kevin Carbajal brings a solid 21% win rate.
Cuz Im Pepe at 6-1 won his last start over 300 yards at Turf Paradise and has experience at this level. The gelding breaks from the rail, which is an advantage in short Quarter Horse sprints.
Longshots
Lady Dealin Rogue at 8-1 has a 40% career in-the-money rate and showed form with a second-place finish three starts back over 350 yards. The Frisby barn sends out two runners in this race.
Selections
Win: Fancey Like (2)
Place: Kj Flashy Girl (3)
Show: Bestprincessreturns (6)
2nd Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
1:41 PM MT
This is a 300-yard Quarter Horse allowance for horses that have never won two races, carrying a $14,800 purse with a full field of twelve runners. Several horses are listed on scratch watch as also-eligibles.
Pace Analysis
With twelve runners entered in a 300-yard dash, gate speed and a clean break are absolutely paramount. The shorter distance puts even more emphasis on the first few strides. This large field increases the likelihood of traffic trouble for horses that do not break alertly. Expect a chaotic break with several runners vying for position in the first few jumps.
Key Contenders
Koli draws as the morning-line favorite at 4-1 from post three. This three-year-old filly showed significant improvement when breaking her maiden last out over 330 yards at Turf Paradise. Her fastest deep running style is somewhat atypical for this distance, but her recent win suggests she has figured things out. Jockey Kevin Carbajal and trainer David John Williams appear to have her in good form.
Aj Rose Gold at 3-1 morning line ships in from Zia Park with competitive form. This three-year-old filly is making her Turf Paradise debut but has experience from a competitive New Mexico circuit. She is listed as an also-eligible but should draw into the field if scratches occur.
Secondary Choices
Urthpeanuttomybutter at 5-1 is a veteran seven-year-old mare with significant experience at Turf Paradise. Her fast leader style suits this short distance, though her recent form shows some regression. Jockey Emilio Tapia provides steady guidance.
Raven Jl at 5-1 is another three-year-old filly showing fastest leader tendencies that suit the distance. The Juan Figueroa trainee has earnings of nearly $70,000 and could be live at this price.
Longshots
Flagstaff at 15-1 has struggled recently but draws from outside post ten, which could be a disadvantage. The five-year-old gelding would need significant improvement to contend here.
Selections
Win: Koli (3)
Place: Raven Jl (8)
Show: Urthpeanuttomybutter (9)
3rd Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
2:10 PM MT
This is a 4 1/2 furlong dirt claiming race for horses that have never won three races, with a $4,500 claiming price and $9,500 purse. Six runners are entered, making this a manageable field for handicapping.
Pace Analysis
At 4 1/2 furlongs, this race should see early speed assert itself. With a smaller field and the distance favoring tactical speed, expect the early pace to be moderate without a destructive speed duel. Horses that can secure position in the first quarter will have the advantage heading into the stretch.
Key Contenders
Manzoni is a three-year-old colt trained by Dan McFarlane, a veteran Turf Paradise conditioner known for his success at this level. The colt carries a three-pound weight advantage at 119 pounds due to his age. Jockey Karlo Lopez, currently one of the leading riders at the meet, provides the services. Lopez has shown strong form with a 15% win rate and 45% in-the-money rate at the current meet.
Set Point at post five is trained by Rick Soto and will have jockey Harry Hernandez aboard. The four-year-old gelding has been competitive at this level and the inside-middle post should provide a good trip at this distance.
Secondary Choices
Chirag is a five-year-old gelding trained by Bennie Woolley Jr. with Daylor Berrios-Lopez riding. The horse takes the weight allowance for not winning since November 4 and could be ready for a peak effort.
Thrust is trained by Rosemary Trela with Blake Nunnally aboard. The five-year-old gelding has some back class that could prove useful against this field.
Selections
Win: Manzoni (2)
Place: Set Point (5)
Show: Chirag (1)
4th Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
2:39 PM MT
This is a one-mile dirt claiming race for horses that have never won three races, carrying a $9,500 purse with a $4,500 claiming price. Six runners are entered.
Pace Analysis
At the one-mile distance on dirt, pace scenario becomes more nuanced. The route distance allows stalkers and closers more time to advance. With six runners, expect a moderate pace with perhaps one or two horses trying to establish position early. The key will be tactical speed and the ability to sustain effort through the stretch.
Key Contenders
Dekudylan draws post one for trainer Scott Tubbs with jockey Alex Cruz aboard. Cruz has been one of the most successful riders on the circuit, having earned an unprecedented fifth straight riding title at Emerald Downs. His presence in the saddle adds significant value. The rail draw is advantageous for route racing at Turf Paradise.
Supreme Leader from the Gabriel Silva barn will have Karlo Lopez up. Lopez's strong current form and the horse's class make this a logical contender. The four-year-old gelding should be forwardly placed.
Secondary Choices
Serenader is a three-year-old gelding from the Justin Evans barn, which currently ranks among the leading trainers at the meet with four wins from seventeen starts. Trainer Evans has been running horses competitively throughout the meet, and jockey Frank Reyes has shown solid form.
Without Equal is trained by Valorie Lund, a veteran Turf Paradise conditioner who has been a consistent presence at the meet for years.
Selections
Win: Dekudylan (1)
Place: Supreme Leader (2)
Show: Serenader (3)
5th Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
3:08 PM MT
This is a maiden optional claiming race for two-year-olds at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt with a $17,000 purse and optional $30,000 claiming price. Seven first-time starters and lightly-raced juveniles make this a challenging puzzle.
Pace Analysis
Maiden races with juveniles often produce unpredictable pace scenarios. Several of these horses have limited starts, making pace projections tentative. Expect early speed to be contested as multiple trainers likely want their horses to establish position and avoid traffic in their development.
Key Contenders
Gifted Valor finished third over the course and distance in his most recent start and figures to improve. The Valorie Lund trainee showed promise in that debut effort and the experience advantage over any first-time starters is significant. Jockey Manuel Americano has been active at the meet.
Nitro Boost is trained by Frank Lucarelli, whose operation has shown strong form at Turf Paradise. The two-year-old gelding may bounce back from a disappointing recent run and is listed at 7-2 morning line odds.
Secondary Choices
Little to No Money showed promise on debut for trainer Howard Gibson. The two-year-old gelding is rated 70 by some handicapping services and could improve with the experience of a race under his belt.
Maestro Italiano from the Rafael Barraza barn is another contender at 4-1 morning line. The Italian racing operation has been building its presence at the track.
Longshots
Monster Matt from the Wendell Matt barn has been working towards this start. The operation has a history at Turf Paradise, though recent form has been moderate.
Selections
Win: Gifted Valor (1)
Place: Nitro Boost (7)
Show: Little to No Money (6)
6th Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
3:37 PM MT
This is a 6 1/2 furlong dirt claiming race for horses that have never won two races, with a $9,000 purse and $4,500 claiming price. Ten runners are entered, making this a competitive and wide-open event.
Pace Analysis
With ten runners at 6 1/2 furlongs, pace dynamics become important. Multiple speed horses are entered, which could set up for closers if the early fractions are fast. However, Turf Paradise's tendency to favor speed horses in dirt sprints means early pace types should not be dismissed.
Key Contenders
Sanderson is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who is seeking another leading trainer title at Turf Paradise. Diodoro currently leads the trainer standings with six wins from twenty starts. The multiple-time leading trainer knows how to place horses to win, and jockey Orlando Mojica provides elite pilot services. Mojica leads the jockey standings with seven wins from 26 starts and is approaching the milestone of 3,000 career wins.
Gran Senor Del Oro from the Scott Tubbs barn has jockey Harry Hernandez aboard. The three-year-old colt receives a weight allowance and could be competitive at this level.
Secondary Choices
Code Breaker is a Wendell Matt trainee with Manuel Americano riding. The three-year-old gelding receives the weight allowance and could offer value.
Dinero de La Casa from the Torres-Casas barn has Francisco Garcia in the saddle. The four-year-old gelding is worth consideration at longer odds.
Longshots
Its Paladin Time at 121 pounds with first-time blinkers noted could show improvement. The equipment change suggests the connections are looking for a spark.
Selections
Win: Sanderson (8)
Place: Gran Senor Del Oro (5)
Show: Code Breaker (6)
7th Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
4:06 PM MT
This is a starter allowance for fillies and mares at 6 furlongs on dirt with a $12,000 purse. Horses must have started for a claiming price of $5,000 or less in 2024-2025. Eight runners are entered.
Pace Analysis
This race features experienced mares who have competed at the claiming level. Expect multiple horses to contest the early pace at six furlongs. The inside posts should have an advantage securing position, and tactical speed figures to be important in the stretch run.
Key Contenders
Unified A.P. is a four-year-old filly from the Drew Fulmer barn with Alex Cruz aboard. The filly carries top weight at 124 pounds, indicating she does not receive the condition allowance for not winning since November 4. Cruz's strong presence in the saddle makes this runner a key contender.
Go Stormin Girl is an eight-year-old mare from the Hugo Rodriguez barn with Orlando Mojica up. The combination of leading jockey Mojica and a veteran mare who knows how to compete at this level makes this a logical contender.
Secondary Choices
Guide My Steps has Kiaman McGregor aboard for trainer Shelly Crowe. The five-year-old mare receives the weight allowance and could be competitive.
Vella is a nine-year-old mare from the W.R. Whitehouse barn with Blake Nunnally riding. Veterans often know how to get the job done at this level.
Olivia's Choice (IRE) is an intriguing European import from the Candelario Villamar barn, though she appears on scratch watch with a stewards notation.[Various]
Selections
Win: Unified A.P. (8)
Place: Go Stormin Girl (3)
Show: Guide My Steps (2)
8th Race – Turf Paradise – Thursday, December 4th, 2025
Post Time
4:35 PM MT
This is a one-mile turf claiming race for horses that have never won two races, carrying an $11,500 purse with an $8,500 claiming price. Eleven runners are entered with the rail set at 14 feet.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile turf race features a full field of eleven, making post position critical. The turf course at Turf Paradise shows a strong inside bias, with approximately 39% of winners coming from posts one or two. Tactical speed from inside and mid-range posts gains an edge at this configuration. With limited genuine early speed types, the pace could be moderate, which would favor tactical runners near the front while compromising deep closers.
Key Contenders
Delian League from post three at 3-1 morning line is trained by Mike Chambers with Frank T. Alvarado aboard. The four-year-old gelding finished second in his most recent start over one mile on turf at Turf Paradise, demonstrating good current form. His fast closer running style and inside post position should allow him to track the pace and make a move in the stretch.
Cancun Native has jockey Alex Cruz in the saddle for trainer Juan Pablo Silva. The three-year-old gelding won his last start over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf at Turf Paradise, showing affinity for the grass surface. At 4-1 morning line, he offers value as a recent winner stretching out slightly.
Secondary Choices
Wine Empire at 5-1 finished third last out over the course and distance. The five-year-old gelding has Glenn Corbett aboard for trainer Johnathon Feron. His fast stalker style should keep him in contention.
No Ordinary Tiger from post five has Karlo Lopez up for trainer Robert Baze. The three-year-old gelding could improve on the turf surface.
Longshots
Ride for Gold at 10-1 has Kevin Krigger aboard for trainer Scott Tubbs. Krigger has a 20% win rate and the horse has shown form on dirt that could translate to turf.
Star Mission at 12-1 has experience on turf and finished third two starts back in a one-mile turf race. At these odds, he could offer value for exotics.
Selections
Win: Delian League (3)
Place: Cancun Native (4)
Show: Wine Empire (9)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Orlando Mojica leads the current Turf Paradise jockey standings with seven wins from 26 starts. He is approaching a personal milestone of 3,000 career wins and had 2,992 wins through December 2. Mojica has one mount today in Race 6 aboard Sanderson for the leading trainer Diodoro. His combination of experience and current hot form makes any mount he rides worthy of consideration.
Karlo Lopez ranks second among jockeys with six wins from 37 starts at the meet. Lopez recently celebrated his 600th career win at Turf Paradise and has been riding consistently well. He has mounts throughout the card and is particularly sharp in claiming company.
Manuel Americano sits third in the jockey standings with five wins from 33 starts, posting a 16% win rate. He has multiple mounts on today's card including in the Quarter Horse races and features.
Alex Cruz brings elite credentials having won an unprecedented fifth straight riding title at Emerald Downs. His presence at Turf Paradise adds significant strength to any mount, particularly in the route races where his tactical acumen shines.
Harry Hernandez has shown solid form at the meet with consistent in-the-money finishes. His 16% win rate and 46% in-the-money rate make him a reliable presence in the saddle.
Frank Reyes has been riding competitively for the Justin Evans barn and others, posting solid numbers at the meet.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Robertino Diodoro continues his dominance at Turf Paradise, leading the trainer standings with six wins from 20 starts for a 30% strike rate. The multiple-time leading trainer has won seven consecutive leading trainer titles at the meet and shows no signs of slowing down. His lone entry today, Sanderson in Race 6 with jockey Orlando Mojica, represents a powerful combination.
Justin Evans ranks second among trainers with four wins from seventeen starts for a 24% win rate. His operation has been running horses competitively throughout the meet, and he is listed as one of the leading trainers in 2025. He sends out Serenader in Race 4 and Riding By in Race 6.
Esteban Martinez has shown impressive form early in the meet with four wins from just eight starts for a 50% strike rate. His horses deserve attention when entered.
Juan Pablo Silva has multiple runners on the card and brings experience at Turf Paradise, though his history includes some regulatory issues. His trainee Cancun Native in Race 8 is a recent winner on the turf course.
Scott Tubbs sends out multiple runners including Dekudylan in Race 4 and entries in other races. His operation has been competitive at the meet.
Valorie Lund is a veteran Turf Paradise conditioner who has been in the top 20 trainers at the meet for years. She sends out Gifted Valor in Race 5 and Without Equal in Race 4.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The structure of today's card offers several wagering opportunities based on pace dynamics, post position advantages, and trainer/jockey combinations.
The Quarter Horse races in Races 1 and 2 favor speed horses that break cleanly. In short sprints, chalk performs well because early speed is rewarded and the margin for error is minimal. Consider keying Fancey Like in Race 1 exacta and trifecta combinations with Kj Flashy Girl and Bestprincessreturns for value.
The Robertino Diodoro and Orlando Mojica combination in Race 6 represents a classic bet with the leading trainer and leading jockey teaming up. Sanderson should attract significant action but may offer value in exotic wagers as an anchor. Consider boxing Sanderson with Gran Senor Del Oro and Code Breaker in trifecta plays.
Race 8 on the turf presents the best exotic wagering opportunity of the day. The 39% win rate from inside posts on the turf course makes Delian League from post three and Cancun Native from post four the logical anchors. Build Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences ending with Race 8 using these two as key horses. Consider spreading to Wine Empire and No Ordinary Tiger in exacta and trifecta plays given the full field and potential for pace-driven chaos.
For daily double action, consider the Race 7 and Race 8 combination with Unified A.P. and Go Stormin Girl keyed to Delian League and Cancun Native. This provides multiple win opportunities at each leg.
The maiden race in Race 5 offers the most uncertainty due to limited form on juvenile runners. Consider using Gifted Valor and Nitro Boost in multi-race wagers while accepting that maiden races can produce surprises.
Value plays to watch include Cuz Im Pepe in Race 1 at 6-1 given his rail draw and recent win at the distance. In Race 8, Star Mission at 12-1 has turf experience and could hit the board at generous odds for exacta and trifecta value.
