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Turf Paradise presents an eight-race card featuring a mix of Quarter Horse sprints and Thoroughbred contests across dirt and turf surfaces. The card opens with two Quarter Horse races at 300 and 330 yards before transitioning to Thoroughbred action. Notable races include the fifth race allowance optional claimer on the turf and the finale maiden optional claimer on the grass. The card features claiming levels ranging from $4,500 to $12,500, with purses from $8,500 to $18,000. Several horses have been scratched, including Come Home and Ponderosa from Race 4 and They See Me Do It from Race 8.
First post time is 1:15 PM Mountain Time.
Weather and Track Conditions
Weather conditions for November 15, 2025 in Phoenix show overcast skies with a 60% chance of precipitation and temperatures around 79-81 degrees Fahrenheit. Wind is expected from the west-southwest at approximately 6 mph with humidity around 16%. Recent track conditions at Turf Paradise have shown a fast dirt surface and firm turf course, though the rain threat could alter these conditions throughout the day.
The turf rail is set at zero for grass races. Track personnel typically maintain excellent surfaces, but handicappers should monitor for any late changes if precipitation materializes. The comfortable temperatures and light winds should provide fair racing conditions if the track stays dry.
Inside post positions on the turf course hold significant advantage, with 39% of winners coming from posts 1 or 2, particularly in shorter turf races. Post 9 has historically been the weakest position across all distances. On the dirt track, bias is less pronounced, though favorites perform well with a 38% win rate in lower-level claiming races. In smaller fields, favorites have shown exceptional performance, finishing in the money 77% of the time.
1st Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 1:15 PM
Race 1 is an allowance for Arizona-bred Quarter Horses at 300 yards on dirt with a purse of $14,800. The field includes horses aged three and older that have never won two races. This sprint distance puts a premium on natural speed and gate-breaking ability.
Pace Analysis
At 300 yards, the race will be contested entirely at top speed with minimal tactical maneuvering. Early speed is paramount, and horses that stumble or hesitate at the break have little chance to recover. Expect the winner to come from horses showing consistent speed figures and clean breaks in recent starts.
Key Contenders
Zabba Cartel brings significant experience as a five-year-old horse with multiple starts at this level. The veteran should provide value as a horse comfortable in these allowance conditions. Tell America represents trainer Orlando Guerrero and shows the breeding to compete at this distance. Av Tornadoe Warning has demonstrated ability at the Arizona-bred level and draws jockey Mark Jasso, who has experience in Quarter Horse racing.
Secondary Choices
Cuz Im Pepe has shown flashes of ability and could factor at a price. Miss My Bono brings five years of racing experience and the Rodolfo Arvizu connection. Tell Me Im Yours teams trainer Matthew Fales with a developing three-year-old filly that could surprise.
Longshots
Yn Tiro de Gracia is a seven-year-old gelding with veteran status but questionable recent form. Goodbye Tyme represents the same trainer as Tell Me Im Yours and could offer exotic value if the barn is firing.
Betting Strategy
Quarter Horse racing demands respect for speed and gate work. In a competitive allowance field, spreading tickets in exactas and trifectas makes sense. Consider using the top four choices in multi-race wagers starting the Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequences.
Selections
Win: Zabba Cartel
Place: Av Tornadoe Warning
Show: Tell America
2nd Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 1:43 PM
The second race is a maiden Quarter Horse sprint at 330 yards for horses three and older with a purse of $14,300. Maiden races at this level typically feature inconsistent runners seeking their first victory.
Pace Analysis
The slightly longer 330-yard distance still emphasizes pure speed with minimal room for rallying. Clean breaks and natural quickness determine the outcome. Horses showing improved speed figures in recent starts deserve attention.
Key Contenders
Foose Hawkins is a five-year-old horse still seeking a maiden victory but brings experience to this assignment. Jack Has No Secrets represents trainer Angeladrian Dominguez with jockey Richard Birdrattler, a combination that should provide competitive effort. I Am the Queen B shows breeding that suggests ability at this distance and could improve with racing.
Secondary Choices
Kvn Negro to Blanco brings a developing three-year-old profile and could show improvement. Munsters represents a barn with knowledge of Quarter Horse racing. Wheresmycrown adds another filly dimension to the race with competitive breeding.
Longshots
Geh Imperial Eyes is an eight-year-old maiden mare facing a challenging task but brings experience. Jess Rideaway and Koli round out horses seeking their first win at generous odds.
Betting Strategy
Maiden Quarter Horse races can produce unpredictable results and solid payoffs. Using multiple horses in exactas and including longshots in trifectas provides coverage for upset scenarios. This race offers opportunity for value-conscious bettors willing to spread tickets.
Selections
Win: Foose Hawkins
Place: Jack Has No Secrets
Show: I Am the Queen B
3rd Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 2:12 PM
Race 3 is a $10,000 claiming race at 6.5 furlongs on dirt for three-year-olds and older. The claiming level indicates competitive horses with established form, and the distance favors runners with tactical speed and stamina.
Pace Analysis
The 6.5-furlong distance should produce moderate early fractions with the winner coming from horses rating near the pace or making sustained middle moves. Horses with versatile running styles hold advantages. Early speed should be respected but may face pressure, creating opportunities for closers.
Key Contenders
Central Park is a nine-year-old gelding with extensive experience and draws the in-form Harry Hernandez. The veteran has demonstrated consistency at this claiming level and should factor heavily. K P Kwest represents trainer Justin Evans, who leads the Turf Paradise trainer standings with 62 wins. Godsend also ships from the Evans barn, giving that trainer two legitimate chances in this competitive field.
Secondary Choices
Rollin Dice and Always On Cay are trained by Jorge Rosales and enter from the same barn, suggesting one may be preferred. Cross the Causeway brings a tactical running style that could prove effective at the distance. A View From Above has shown ability at this level and could surprise at a price.
Longshots
Toolittletoolate faces a challenging assignment but could provide exotic value. The gelding’s recent form suggests an upset is unlikely, but claiming races can produce surprises.
Betting Strategy
The Evans-trained entries deserve strong consideration given the trainer’s dominant meet statistics. Playing exactas with Central Park and the Evans runners provides solid coverage. Including third and fourth choices in trifectas spreads risk across live contenders.
Selections
Win: Central Park
Place: K P Kwest
Show: Godsend
4th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 2:41 PM
The fourth race is a $8,500 maiden claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs. Come Home and Ponderosa have been scratched, leaving six runners to contest this maiden event. Maiden claimers represent horses with limited ability seeking their first win.
Pace Analysis
The 5.5-furlong sprint should see contested early fractions with horses seeking clear position through the turn. Natural speed holds value, but horses saving ground on the rail could prove effective in the small field. The reduced field eliminates traffic concerns and favors runners with tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Chief Renegade draws inside and brings developing three-year-old status with room for improvement. Reach Higher represents trainer Frank Lucarelli with jockey Kiaman McGregor, a combination showing positive recent statistics. Tiger by the Tail has experience advantage but faces questions about ability at this maiden claiming level.
Secondary Choices
Towhee brings four-year-old seasoning and could improve with the class drop to maiden claiming ranks. Badgers Face represents the Nunnally family training and riding combination with knowledge of track conditions. Poco Yo offers longshot value if showing improvement.
Longshots
With the scratches reducing field size, remaining runners all hold theoretical chances in a wide-open maiden claimer. Spreading tickets across multiple combinations makes sense given the uncertainty of maiden form.
Betting Strategy
The reduced field creates value opportunities in exactas and trifectas. Using the top three choices in multiple combinations with saver bets underneath provides coverage. This race sets up as a potential single in multi-race wagers for confident handicappers.
Selections
Win: Chief Renegade
Place: Reach Higher
Show: Tiger by the Tail
5th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 3:09 PM
Race 5 is an allowance optional claiming event on turf at one mile for fillies and mares. The $18,000 purse represents the highest on the card. The turf rail is set at zero, favoring inside runners. This race features horses with established form on grass surfaces.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile turf distance should produce moderate early fractions with the winner coming from horses rating close to the pace or making sustained runs in the stretch. The firm turf course favors horses with tactical speed who can save ground on the turns. Inside post positions hold significant advantage with the rail at zero.
Key Contenders
Derrygoolin brings strong recent form with wins in last two starts at the mile distance on turf and draws jockey Karlo Lopez. The mare has demonstrated comfort at this distance and figures prominently. Platinum Diva is a four-year-old filly with $231,170 in career earnings and draws Orlando Mojica, the meet’s leading rider. Rollin Blackout has shown versatility on both dirt and turf surfaces and represents trainer Isaiah Ortiz.
Secondary Choices
Dontmesswithtess is a seven-year-old mare with $356,670 in earnings and extensive turf experience, though recent form raises questions. Island Jive has shown improvement with a recent turf win and could factor at a price. Aliceshouseofheart brings tactical speed and mid-pack closing style that suits the distance.
Longshots
Poker Alice has shown front-running ability on dirt but faces questions about turf effectiveness. The filly could surprise if translating dirt speed to the grass course.
Betting Strategy
Inside post positions deserve emphasis given the turf course configuration with the rail at zero. Derrygoolin and Platinum Diva both draw favorable posts and represent value in exactas. Including Rollin Blackout and Dontmesswithtess in trifectas provides coverage for various pace scenarios.
Selections
Win: Derrygoolin
Place: Platinum Diva
Show: Rollin Blackout
6th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 3:40 PM
The sixth race is a $4,500 maiden claimer at five furlongs on dirt with a purse of $8,500. This represents the lowest claiming level on the card, featuring horses with limited ability seeking their first victory.
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong sprint puts premium on early speed and gate-breaking ability. Horses showing natural quickness should control the race through the turn. Closers face difficult tasks in short maiden sprints unless early pace collapses. Expect contested fractions with the winner showing early tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Street Gun has demonstrated some ability in previous starts and draws Manuel Americano, showing 17% win rate at the meet. Mendelssohns Music brings four-year-old experience and could improve with the class drop. Ali Jac represents trainer Jorge Rosales and could factor if showing natural speed.
Secondary Choices
Tequilalittletime debuts for trainer Howard Gibson with potential for improvement. Colonel Horton represents trainer Neil Koch with developing three-year-old profile. Tough as an Ox teams trainer Frank Lucarelli with jockey Kiaman McGregor.
Longshots
Seb n Sam is a six-year-old maiden facing a challenging assignment. Shame Them brings limited experience but could surprise at generous odds. Krome’s Kiddo adds filly dimension to the field.
Betting Strategy
Low-level maiden claimers produce unpredictable results and solid payoffs for risk-tolerant bettors. Spreading exacta and trifecta tickets across multiple combinations provides coverage. Using this race in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers requires including multiple horses given the uncertainty.
Selections
Win: Street Gun
Place: Mendelssohns Music
Show: Ali Jac
7th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 4:10 PM
The seventh race is a starter allowance at 5.5 furlongs for fillies and mares that have started for $5,000 or less in 2024-2025. The field includes horses with established form at lower levels competing for a $12,000 purse.
Pace Analysis
The sprint distance favors horses with natural early speed and tactical positioning ability. Expect contested early fractions with the winner showing sustained speed through the stretch. Front-runners with good gate speed hold advantages in starter allowances where horses show similar ability levels.
Key Contenders
Loveaboveandbeyond dominates the field with strong recent form showing three consecutive wins. The five-year-old mare has demonstrated front-running ability and figures as the overwhelming favorite with predicted win percentage of 36%. Despite short odds, the mare’s recent dominance makes her difficult to oppose. Lula Bella has shown competitive ability with recent wins and represents the Nunnally family training operation.
Secondary Choices
Unified A. P. brings solid credentials with 20% career win rate and tactical speed. Sorority Party represents trainer Scott Tubbs with competitive recent form. Olivia’s Choice ships from Ireland with established European form that could translate to this level.
Longshots
Kamikaze Blue has struggled recently but could surprise at generous odds. Vella brings veteran status with questions about current form. Irish Prancer represents longshot value in exotics.
Betting Strategy
Loveaboveandbeyond’s dominance suggests using the mare as a single in multi-race wagers, though short odds limit win-betting value. Spreading the field underneath in exactas and trifectas provides coverage if the favorite wins. Including Lula Bella and Unified A. P. as secondary choices makes sense in multi-race sequences.
Selections
Win: Loveaboveandbeyond
Place: Lula Bella
Show: Unified A. P.
8th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time: 4:40 PM
The finale is a maiden optional claiming race at 7.5 furlongs on turf for fillies and mares. They See Me Do It has been scratched, leaving seven runners. The $30,000 optional claiming tag indicates horses with some ability that connections want to protect.
Pace Analysis
The extended turf distance favors horses with tactical speed and sustained stretch runs. The rail at zero benefits inside runners who save ground through the turns. Horses with turf breeding and grass experience hold advantages over dirt-only runners making turf debuts. Expect moderate early pace with the winner coming from horses rating close to the leaders.
Key Contenders
Without a Pout ships from trainer Robertino Diodoro, one of the meet’s leading conditioners with 43 wins. The three-year-old filly draws Orlando Mojica, the meet’s leading rider. Caitlin Fever represents trainer Peter Miller with strong southern California credentials. Ride Elbow Ranch also comes from the Diodoro barn, giving that trainer two live chances.
Secondary Choices
Distorted Louv represents trainer Ryan Kenney with developing three-year-old profile. Sparta F. C. brings four-year-old experience with potential for improvement. Naturally Blonde has shown ability at lower levels and could factor.
Longshots
Swiss Dancer faces a challenging assignment but could provide exotic value. The four-year-old filly brings experience that could translate to an upset scenario.
Betting Strategy
The Diodoro-trained entries deserve strong consideration given the trainer’s meet statistics. Playing exactas with Without a Pout and Ride Elbow Ranch provides barn coverage. Including Caitlin Fever and other secondary choices in trifectas spreads risk across live contenders. This race concludes rolling exotic sequences and offers value for bettors who survived earlier races.
Selections
Win: Without a Pout
Place: Caitlin Fever
Show: Ride Elbow Ranch
Jockey Notes and Insights
Orlando Mojica leads all riders at the current Turf Paradise meet with 57 wins from 313 starts, producing an 18.21% win rate and 50.8% in-the-money percentage. Mojica rides Platinum Diva in Race 5 and Without a Pout in Race 8, giving him two strong mounts on the card. The rider’s aggressive style suits Turf Paradise’s configuration.
Harry Hernandez shows strong statistics with 27 wins from 146 starts for an 18.49% win rate and 45.89% in-the-money percentage. Hernandez rides Central Park in Race 3, Mendelssohns Music in Race 6, Sorority Party in Race 7, and Caitlin Fever in Race 8, providing multiple opportunities. The veteran rider excels in claiming races and maiden events.
Guillermo Rodriguez has recorded solid numbers with 114 starts producing 19% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage. Rodriguez rides Chief Renegade in Race 4, Rollin Blackout in Race 5, and Naturally Blonde in Race 8. The rider shows particular effectiveness with closers and horses making middle moves.
Blake Nunnally has posted 21% win rate from 56 starts with strong money-finishing percentage. Nunnally rides in the first two Quarter Horse races and connects with Vella in Race 7. The rider brings Quarter Horse expertise that translates well to Thoroughbred sprint races.
Frank Alvarado shows 14% win rate with 51% in-the-money performance. Alvarado rides Dontmesswithtess in Race 5 and Lula Bella in Race 7, both representing quality mounts. The rider’s patient style suits turf racing and horses requiring tactical positioning.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Justin Evans dominates the Turf Paradise trainer standings with 62 wins and earnings exceeding $943,000. Evans saddles K P Kwest and Godsend in Race 3, providing strong chances in that claiming event. The barn shows exceptional consistency across all claiming levels and excels with veteran horses.
Jose Silva Jr has compiled 45 wins at the meet with solid earnings. Silva trains Central Park in Race 3 and Derrygoolin in Race 5, both entering as key contenders. The barn excels with older horses and demonstrates patience in developing grass runners.
Robertino Diodoro has recorded 43 wins at the meet and maintains strong southern California base. Diodoro sends out Platinum Diva in Race 5, Without a Pout in Race 8, and Ride Elbow Ranch in Race 8. The barn’s attention to detail and ability to spot races makes any Diodoro runner dangerous.
Jorge Rosales trains multiple horses on the card including entries in Races 3, 4, 6, and 8. The volume trainer shows consistency across claiming levels and maiden events. Rosales horses typically show honest efforts and represent value at fair odds.
Matthew Fales has two entries in the opening Quarter Horse allowance, suggesting confidence in that barn’s condition. The trainer shows expertise with Arizona-bred Quarter Horses and understands the unique demands of sprint racing.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Pick 4 spanning Races 1-4 offers value given the competitive nature of the opening Quarter Horse races. Using multiple horses in the first two legs while focusing on favorites in Races 3 and 4 provides coverage with manageable cost. Central Park in Race 3 and Chief Renegade in Race 4 anchor the sequence with solid favorites.
The late Pick 4 covering Races 5-8 presents excellent value opportunities. Derrygoolin in Race 5 offers legitimate winning chances at fair odds. Spreading Race 6 given the maiden claiming uncertainty, then using Loveaboveandbeyond in Race 7, and ending with multiple horses in the turf finale creates a balanced ticket with strong payout potential.
Race-specific value appears in Race 5 where Derrygoolin enters with strong recent form but may offer better odds than morning-line favorite status suggests. The mare’s consistency at the mile distance on turf combined with favorable post position creates overlay potential.
Exacta box strategies work well in Races 3, 5, and 8 where multiple contenders show similar ability. Boxing three or four horses in each race provides coverage while maintaining reasonable costs. Focusing on horses from leading trainers Evans, Silva, and Diodoro maximizes probability of connecting with winners.
Rolling exotic wagers starting with Race 5 and continuing through Race 8 offers significant payout potential. The turf races in the second half of the card provide opportunities for value-conscious handicappers willing to use horses at fair odds. Including multiple horses in Race 6 while focusing on logical favorites elsewhere balances risk and reward.
Trifecta strategies in claiming races and maiden events produce solid payoffs when including longshots in third or fourth positions. Using top two choices on top with all underneath in trifectas provides coverage for upset scenarios while limiting ticket costs. Race 3 and Race 7 present ideal opportunities for this approach given the competitive nature of thoseose fields.
