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Today features an eight race program with a mix of thoroughbred and quarter horse action. The card offers several allowance and maiden special weight conditions, bringing out some intriguing Arizona bred contenders and seasoned claimers. The feature races sit late in the card, offering a competitive one mile turf event and a solid six furlong allowance sprint on the main track. With decent field sizes in the later legs, the Pick 5 and Pick 6 sequences promise healthy payouts for those who can navigate the challenging sequences.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather in Phoenix is expected to be ideal for a February afternoon of racing. Morning temperatures will start in the mid fifties and reach a high near eighty four degrees under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. There is virtually zero chance of precipitation, ensuring a fast dirt track and a firm turf course for today. Based on recent historical profiles and handicapper data for Turf Paradise, the main dirt track tends to carry a moderate speed bias in sprints, especially at five and a half and six furlongs, slightly favoring early speed horses drawing middle to outside post positions. Conversely, the turf routes heavily favor horses with early or pressing speed who secure inside trips. Bettors should upgrade early speed types on the main track today if the surface plays to its typical dry and fast profile.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The local jockey colony is deep, but several riders stand out on today’s card. Karlo Lopez and Kiaman McGregor have multiple live mounts and historically perform very well over this surface. Manuel Americano has been consistently finding the winner’s circle and has a mount in nearly every race today, indicating his services are in high demand among top barns. When these riders are paired with horses showing early speed, they become incredibly dangerous given the anticipated track profile.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Robertino Diodoro brings a small but potent string today, and his runners always warrant respect when entered at Turf Paradise, particularly in allowance and optional claiming company. Dan L McFarlane and Rafael S Barraza also have strong contenders dropping into favorable spots. Handicappers should pay close attention to the trainer and jockey combinations, specifically when top tier barns utilize riders like Lopez or Americano, as these are often intentional placements meant to secure a victory rather than simply giving a horse a conditioning run.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The late Pick 5, beginning in Race 4, appears to be the most lucrative exotic wagering opportunity on the card. The turf allowance in the fourth leg provides an excellent chance to single a logical favorite, allowing bettors to spread deeper in the wide open maiden and claiming sprints that follow. Look to lean on inside speed in the turf event and stretch your ticket to include outside stalkers in the dirt sprints. Daily Double combinations pairing class droppers with high percentage jockeys will also offer steady value throughout the afternoon.
Race 1
Post Time
01:15 PM
Key Contenders
Imm Beyond the Stars enters this three hundred yard dash with solid connections and a good draw. This four year old filly has the raw speed necessary to compete at this level and gets the services of J B Botello. Sweetdisire is another major threat in this allowance field. With Kevin Carbajal riding, this six year old mare has the back class to dictate the terms if she breaks cleanly from the outside post.
Secondary Choices
Famous Mobster has shown flashes of brilliance and is well spotted here. Mark A Jasso takes the reins, and if this four year old colt can find his stride early, he will be right in the mix at the wire. Tell Joe No is an intriguing four year old gelding who has the potential to step up in this spot, especially with Jayden R Ironeyes aboard.
Longshots
First Bounty Boy is a seven year old who might be overlooked on the tote board. While he faces younger rivals, his experience could pay dividends if the pace collapses.
Pace Analysis
In a three hundred yard sprint, the break is everything. Expect Imm Beyond the Stars and Sweetdisire to flash early foot. Famous Mobster will need to avoid getting pinched early to maintain contact with the leaders. The pace will be furious, favoring whichever horse can sustain top speed without faltering in the final fifty yards.
Selections
Win: Imm Beyond the Stars (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Sweetdisire (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Famous Mobster (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Tell Joe No (6) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
01:44 PM
Key Contenders
Chapter Seven looks prime for a massive effort in this maiden special weight event. Handicappers note that her works are solid, and she gets a slight class relief that should make her highly competitive against this group of fillies. Western Feel technically tried winners in her last outing and ran a very credible second. The outside draw is a significant advantage for her running style today.
Secondary Choices
Miss Madame is a grinder returning to a sprint distance. The class jump might help her price, and with Manuel Americano in the irons, she is a serious threat to hit the board. Hidden Beauty gets Orlando Mojica and ships out from the Robertino Diodoro barn, a combination that always commands respect in maiden company.
Longshots
Arizona Rose is a wild card in this field. If the pace is too hot up front, she might be able to pick up the pieces late for a share of the exotics.
Pace Analysis
Western Feel should show good tactical speed from the outside, while Chapter Seven and Hidden Beauty will likely establish position early from the inside. The pace should be honest but not exhaustive, allowing a stalker like Miss Madame to make a well timed move at the top of the lane.
Selections
Win: Chapter Seven (3) – 30% confidence
Place: Western Feel (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Hidden Beauty (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Miss Madame (2) – 15% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
02:13 PM
Key Contenders
Rapporteur comes from a top shelf barn and boasts excellent recent morning works. The fact that he is entered in a maiden claiming event raises a few eyebrows, but purely on talent, he is the one to beat. Another Lifer enters off a bullet workout and has the pedigree to handle this distance with ease.
Secondary Choices
Lucky Tiger tries much easier company today and benefits from a surface switch. The local works indicate he is adapting well, and getting Karlo Lopez in the saddle is a massive upgrade. Take a Chance Indy will be pressing the pace and cannot be ignored if he gets loose on the lead.
Longshots
Son of Cupid has been inconsistent but draws the rail. If he secures an easy trip on the inside, he could spice up the trifecta payouts at a price.
Pace Analysis
Rapporteur and Lucky Tiger both possess early foot and will likely battle for command. Another Lifer will try to secure a stalking trip just behind the leaders. If a duel develops, it could set up perfectly for a horse saving ground along the rail.
Selections
Win: Rapporteur (4) – 40% confidence
Place: Another Lifer (6) – 25% confidence
Show: Lucky Tiger (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Take a Chance Indy (3) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
02:42 PM
Key Contenders
Platinum Diva has been highly touted by handicappers for this one mile turf event. Getting Karlo Lopez aboard is a strong signal, and her recent speed figures match up perfectly against this group. Peak Earnings is an intriguing European import for the Diodoro barn. She should appreciate the firm ground and the class level today.
Secondary Choices
Kitty House draws the rail and will have every opportunity to save ground under Manuel Americano. If she gets a clean trip, she is talented enough to run them down. Loveaboveandbeyond has back class and can factor if she runs back to her efforts from last season.
Longshots
Zippin Sevenz is an eight year old veteran who knows where the wire is. While she might lack the upside of the younger mares, her experience over this course makes her a dangerous exotics inclusion.
Pace Analysis
Turf routes at Turf Paradise heavily favor early pressers on the inside. Kitty House and Platinum Diva should be forwardly placed right out of the gate. Peak Earnings will likely track from mid pack and look to launch her bid as they turn for home. The pace should be moderate, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground.
Selections
Win: Platinum Diva (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Peak Earnings (5) – 30% confidence
Show: Kitty House (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Loveaboveandbeyond (2) – 10% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
03:11 PM
Key Contenders
Sweet Cindi Lulu looks dangerous in this spot. Although lacking extensive race experience, her owner and trainer have put some fast works into her, and she could surprise at a nice price. Mistysingstheblues makes her debut as a four year old, which is a unique angle that handicappers are watching closely. She has the pedigree to fire at first asking.
Secondary Choices
Distorted Louv is often right in the mix and will appreciate the outside draw today. Kiaman McGregor getting the call on Mistysingstheblues is another positive sign. Kelbela has decent breeding for this distance and could wake up with Frank T Alvarado in the irons.
Longshots
Whiskeywithatwist will be a big price but has shown flashes of early speed in the mornings. If she can transfer that to the afternoon, she might hang around for a minor award.
Pace Analysis
With several unexposed runners, the pace scenario is murky. Sweet Cindi Lulu and Mistysingstheblues are likely to be sent from the gate. Distorted Louv will want to sit just off the flank of the leaders. An honest pace is expected for this five and a half furlong sprint.
Selections
Win: Sweet Cindi Lulu (2) – 30% confidence
Place: Mistysingstheblues (5) – 25% confidence
Show: Distorted Louv (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Kelbela (1) – 10% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
03:40 PM
Key Contenders
Littleyellowjacket is the clear standout here. He has shown improved front speed in his recent starts and gets Lasix for the second time, a powerful handicapping angle. Cozmic Brownie did not break well in his debut but still managed a strong finish. Moving to an outside post today should keep him out of trouble.
Secondary Choices
Lucky and Gone is out of a dam who was a proven winner and has excellent breeding for a debut run. Higher Performance has Silvio Ruiz Amador aboard and could show improvement second time out.
Longshots
Happy Ranch gets Manuel Americano and might be overlooked due to the form of the top choices. Do not leave him off the bottom of exotic tickets.
Pace Analysis
Littleyellowjacket will gun for the lead from the middle of the pack. Cozmic Brownie will likely try to stay clear of the kickback from his outside draw and mount a sustained rally. The pace should be swift, but Littleyellowjacket appears to have the stamina to hold on.
Selections
Win: Littleyellowjacket (8) – 45% confidence
Place: Cozmic Brownie (10) – 25% confidence
Show: Lucky and Gone (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Happy Ranch (5) – 10% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
04:10 PM
Key Contenders
Jin Tong loves this local dirt surface, having hit the board in numerous starts here. He is making his second start off a layoff, an angle that usually yields a massive forward move. Katar is a classy six year old trained by Diodoro and ridden by Mojica. He is a major threat to wire the field if he breaks cleanly.
Secondary Choices
Riverside has excellent tactical speed and draws well. He will be right in the thick of things under Americano. Lonesome Boy steps up with Frank Alvarado and has the ability to stalk and pounce if the top two engage in a speed duel.
Longshots
Unmachable is a nine year old veteran who might not have his old fastball, but he is a gritty competitor who can pick up the pieces if the fractions are entirely too fast.
Pace Analysis
Katar will likely be sent from the outside to clear the field. Jin Tong and Riverside will not let him get away easily and will apply pressure from the inside. This sets up as a classic pace duel, which could open the door for a stalker like Lonesome Boy to run them all down in the final furlong.
Selections
Win: Jin Tong (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Katar (7) – 30% confidence
Show: Riverside (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Lonesome Boy (5) – 10% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
04:40 PM
Key Contenders
G Dawg looks formidable in the nightcap. The four year old gelding gets a five pound weight allowance with the apprentice rider and drops into a very winnable claiming spot. Cancun Native has strong back class and ran a credible race against tougher company earlier in the meet.
Secondary Choices
Blacksod Bay has tactical speed and will benefit from Alex M Cruz in the saddle. He should get a great trip tracking the pace. Quebrancho is the veteran in the field and has the highest speed ratings on his best day, but he must overcome the outside draw.
Longshots
F B I Bob draws the inside post and could get brave if left alone on the lead. Reach Higher gets Karlo Lopez and cannot be dismissed despite his recent form.
Pace Analysis
F B I Bob and G Dawg will likely flash early speed. Cancun Native will sit right behind them. With the track profile favoring middle and outside posts in six furlong sprints, Cancun Native and Blacksod Bay should get perfect stalking trips while the inside horses battle it out.
Selections
Win: G Dawg (7) – 30% confidence
Place: Cancun Native (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Blacksod Bay (8) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Quebrancho (9) – 15% confidence
