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Welcome to a Thursday evening of racing at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. The card features ten races tonight, February 12, 2026, with a mix of claiming events, maiden special weights, and competitive allowance optional claimers. The highlight of the evening is the 10th race, a marathon 1 1/4-mile Allowance Optional Claiming event that will test the stamina of older horses. We also have high-quality Maiden Special Weight contests in Race 5 and Race 7, showcasing promising fillies on the synthetic surface. The entries are deep, and with the unique Tapeta footing, handicappers must prioritize horses with proven affinity for all-weather surfaces or turf form that translates well to the synthetic.
Weather and Track Conditions
February in Northern Kentucky typically brings chilly temperatures. Expect overcast skies and temperatures hovering in the mid-30s to low-40s. The track surface at Turfway Park is Tapeta, a synthetic all-weather surface. Unlike dirt, this surface maintains a consistent “Fast” designation regardless of minor precipitation, though extreme cold can sometimes tighten the track. The Tapeta generally plays fair, but it often rewards horses who can sustain a long run. Kickback can be an issue, so horses buried on the rail behind a wall of runners may face disadvantages.
Track and Post Position Bias
Historically, the Tapeta at Turfway Park has shown a tendency to favor horses that can stalk and pounce. While speed can hold, especially in 6-furlong sprints, the “wire-to-wire” winner is less common here than on traditional dirt tracks. In route races (1 mile and over), outside posts can be challenging due to the short run into the first turn, but the wide sweeping turns at Turfway allow patient closers to make up ground. Watch for a slight bias towards the outside paths in the stretch, as the rail can sometimes become dead or deep as the night progresses.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time
05:55 PM
Pace Analysis
In this 6 1/2 furlong sprint for fillies and mares, the pace appears moderate. Curls Nite Out breaks from the rail and has shown some early foot in the past, but the real speed might come from the outside with Frosted Eclair. Expect a bunched field early with position going into the turn being critical.
Key Contenders
Googly Eyes (9) draws a favorable outside post for trainer Eric Foster. This mare has shown consistency at this level and should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the early leaders. The apprentice jockey allowance provided by Carlos Barbosa could be the difference maker here.
Wildcatjustice (10) is another strong contender breaking from the far outside. With Rafael Hernandez aboard, this mare has the tactical speed to clear the inner traffic. Her recent form suggests she is sitting on a big effort, and the distance hits her right between the eyes.
Secondary Choices
Curls Nite Out (1) has had some physical issues in the past, noted by a vet scratch in January, but if she is right, the rail draw gives her the shortest path. She fits well on class but is a risky proposition given the layoff notes.
Lady Hamilton (2) usually puts in an honest effort. She might lack the winning punch of the top two but is a must-use in exotics for the minor awards.
Longshots
Maci’s World (5) has been facing tougher company in allowance optional claiming ranks. Dropping into this claiming tag might wake her up, and she offers value if the public overlooks the class relief.
Betting Strategy
The outside runners look best here. A win bet on Googly Eyes is the primary play. Box the 9 and 10 in exactas, and use 5 underneath in trifectas.
Selections
Win: GOOGLY EYES (9) – 35% confidence Place: WILDCATJUSTICE (10) – 25% confidence Show: CURLS NITE OUT (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: MACI’S WORLD (5) – 10% confidence
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time
06:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This Maiden Claiming event at 1 mile will likely see a slow pace. Young fillies stretching out often lack discipline. Tu Tu and Firebird Suite have shown flashes of speed and might inherit the lead by default. A slow pace would favor those near the front.
Key Contenders
Firebird Suite (7) looks like the horse to beat. Trained by Thomas Drury Jr. and ridden by Luan Machado, a top jockey on this circuit, she has been knocking on the door. The move to the mile distance should suit her pedigree, and the barn hits at a high percentage with this move.
Got Gone (2) trained by John Ennis gets Alex Achard in the irons. Ennis is dangerous with young horses, and this filly has put in steady works. She should save ground from the inside and be running late.
Secondary Choices
Oh Donna Donna (9) gets the services of veteran Julien Leparoux. While the post is a bit wide, Leparoux is a master of saving ground on turf and synthetic surfaces. If she takes to the track, she is a major player.
Longshots
Shidoni (1) breaks from the rail. If she can avoid getting shuffled back, the ground-saving trip could sneak her into the superfecta at a big price.
Betting Strategy
Firebird Suite is a likely single in multi-race wagers. For vertical wagers, key the 7 over the 2 and 9.
Selections
Win: FIREBIRD SUITE (7) – 40% confidence Place: GOT GONE (2) – 20% confidence Show: OH DONNA DONNA (9) – 15% confidence Alternative: MY SECRET DREAMS (10) – 10% confidence
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time
06:55 PM
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong dash for older horses. Insolito on the rail is fast, but Fitzpatrick and Huntertown also possess gate speed. This could set up a hot pace, potentially favoring a closer who can pick up the pieces in the lane.
Key Contenders
Insolito (1) is the speed of the speed. If he breaks clean, he might just wire this field. The rail is a huge advantage at this distance if he sends hard.
Fitzpatrick (7) is a classy veteran. He may not be as fast early as Insolito, but he has the stamina to press the pace and take over if the leader falters. Gabriel Saez is a strong aggressive rider for this setup.
Secondary Choices
Point Liam (3) will benefit if the pace melts down. Luan Machado is excellent at timing late runs on this track.
Longshots
Cut Glass (2) is an inconsistency runner but has back class. At 8 years old, he knows the game and could pop up for a piece of the purse at decent odds.
Betting Strategy
This feels like a match race between the 1 and 7. An Exacta Box 1-7 is the safest play. If looking for value, bet Point Liam across the board if his odds float above 5-1.
Selections
Win: INSOLITO (1) – 30% confidence Place: FITZPATRICK (7) – 25% confidence Show: POINT LIAM (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: HUNTERTOWN (8) – 10% confidence
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time
07:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This 1-mile event for non-winners of two has a full field of 14. Traffic will be a nightmare. Agent Kelly and Halter Boy have speed, but with so many runners, the run to the first turn will be chaotic. Position is everything here.
Key Contenders
Consolidated (4) trained by Arnaud Delacour is the class of the field. This barn places horses very well, and Gerardo Corrales is an elite finisher. The post position is ideal to secure a mid-pack stalking spot without getting hung wide.
Halter Boy (9) has been running well against similar company. Joseph Ramos rides, and if he can navigate the draft from post 9, he will be in the mix at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Shortstop (10) is a grinder. He won’t wow you with a turn of foot, but he stays on well. In a race that might fall apart late, his stamina is an asset.
Longshots
Stolen Power (1) is a 3-year-old facing older horses, which is a tough task, but the weight break (113 lbs vs 125/127 lbs) is significant. If he matures, he could steal this on the front end.
Betting Strategy
Wide open race. Spread deep in Pick 3s and Pick 4s. A small win bet on Consolidated is warranted, but this is a race to tread lightly.
Selections
Win: CONSOLIDATED (4) – 28% confidence Place: HALTER BOY (9) – 22% confidence Show: SHORTSTOP (10) – 15% confidence Alternative: STOLEN POWER (1) – 8% confidence
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time
07:55 PM
Pace Analysis
A $100,000 Maiden Special Weight at 1 mile. This field is loaded with potential. Breaking Hearts and Nicksie likely show speed, but with many first or second-time starters, the pace scenario is unpredictable.
Key Contenders
Breaking Hearts (1) trained by Cherie DeVaux has been working well. The rail draw at a mile is tricky for a young horse, but Fernando De La Cruz is a veteran who knows how to handle it. DeVaux’s horses usually fire fresh.
Delya (3) is another Delacour entry with Luan Machado. The pedigree suggests she will love the distance and the surface. Expect a professional effort.
Secondary Choices
Bush League (6) ships in for Doug O’Neill. O’Neill’s shippers to Turfway must always be respected. Gabriel Saez takes the mount, indicating intent.
Longshots
Knockonwood (7) is trained by Joe Sharp. Sharp is known for aggressive placement, and this filly might be ready to run a big one at a price.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the connections here. DeVaux and Delacour are top-tier. An Exacta Box 1-3-6 covers the most likely outcomes.
Selections
Win: BREAKING HEARTS (1) – 30% confidence Place: DELYA (3) – 25% confidence Show: BUSH LEAGUE (6) – 20% confidence Alternative: KNOCKONWOOD (7) – 10% confidence
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time
08:25 PM
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong sprint with plenty of gas signed on. Speighter Woman and Flame Dancer will likely hook up early. This pace pressure sets up perfectly for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Don’t Say It (3) from the Brad Cox barn is the logical choice. She has the tactical speed to sit just behind the duel and pounce. Luan Machado aboard a Cox horse at Turfway is a 25% win proposition almost automatically.
Speighter Woman (1) is fast and draws the rail. She has to go. If she clears, she could be gone, but the pressure will be intense.
Secondary Choices
Flame Dancer (8) trained by Larry Rivelli is dangerous. Rivelli’s horses have high speed figures, but the outside post means she has to work hard to clear or sit wide.
Longshots
Mascara (6) is an interesting price play. She might get lost on the tote board but has some back numbers that fit if the race collapses.
Betting Strategy
Don’t Say It is a likely standout. Single her in the Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences.
Selections
Win: DON’T SAY IT (3) – 45% confidence Place: SPEIGHTER WOMAN (1) – 20% confidence Show: FLAME DANCER (8) – 15% confidence Alternative: MASCARA (6) – 5% confidence
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time
08:55 PM
Pace Analysis
A 1 1/8 mile Maiden Special Weight. The added distance will test these maidens. Worry Be Gone and Plaza Cue look like the ones who will appreciate the ground. The pace should be pedestrian, turning this into a sprint for home the last 3/8ths of a mile.
Key Contenders
Worry Be Gone (5) is another Brad Cox/Luan Machado collaboration. She has the pedigree to run all day and this longer distance is exactly what she needs.
Plaza Cue (9) trained by Kenny McPeek. McPeek excels with routers, and this filly has shown steady improvement. The wide post is less of an issue at this extended distance.
Secondary Choices
Typecase (8) from the Rusty Arnold barn. Arnold is patient and doesn’t run them unless they are fit. Gabriel Saez riding is a plus.
Longshots
Lilium (1) gets the rail and could save all the ground. In a race where stamina is questionable for many, the shortest trip often wins.
Betting Strategy
Exacta 5-9 is the cold play. The distance separates the contenders from the pretenders, and Cox and McPeek are the best distance trainers here.
Selections
Win: WORRY BE GONE (5) – 35% confidence Place: PLAZA CUE (9) – 30% confidence Show: TYPECASE (8) – 15% confidence Alternative: LILIUM (1) – 10% confidence
Race 8 Analysis
Post Time
09:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Allowance Optional Claiming at 1 mile. Goats On a Tree and Mahra’s Love will likely vie for the front. The pace should be honest but not suicidal.
Key Contenders
Mahra’s Love (IRE) (2) brings European turf form which often translates beautifully to Tapeta. Michelle Nihei places her horses carefully. Gerardo Corrales fits this horse well.
Goats On a Tree (11) draws widely but is trained by Mike Maker. Maker is the king of Turfway Park. If anyone can overcome the post, it is him. Expect her to be sent forward early to clear the field.
Secondary Choices
Points Is Points (10) represents the Cox barn. Consistency is her hallmark. She will be running late.
Longshots
Polka Polenta (8) is an 8-year-old mare. She has seen it all. While she may have lost a step, her experience on this oval is unmatched.
Betting Strategy
Mahra’s Love offers the most intrigue. Win bet on the 2. Box 2-10-11 in exactas.
Selections
Win: MAHRA’S LOVE (IRE) (2) – 30% confidence Place: GOATS ON A TREE (11) – 25% confidence Show: POINTS IS POINTS (10) – 20% confidence Alternative: POLKA POLENTA (8) – 5% confidence
Race 9 Analysis
Post Time
09:55 PM
Pace Analysis
N2L Claiming at 1 mile. A very messy race class. Frosty Indulgence and Apophis look like the main speeds.
Key Contenders
Apophis (11) is the class of the field but draws poorly. Rafael Hernandez will need to make a decision early: send or take back. Given the weak field, sending seems the right move.
Frosty Indulgence (1) draws the rail and has Luan Machado. That combination alone makes him a contender in this lower-level claiming event.
Secondary Choices
Paraclete (3) trained by Arnaud Delacour is the “smart money” horse. If the top two burn out, he will be the one picking up the pieces.
Longshots
Concrete Cruiser (8) has Martin Garcia aboard. Garcia is a strong finisher and can lift a horse past the wire in these grinding races.
Betting Strategy
Tough race. Small win bets only. Apophis is the best horse but the post is a major hurdle.
Selections
Win: APOPHIS (11) – 25% confidence Place: FROSTY INDULGENCE (1) – 22% confidence Show: PARACLETE (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: CONCRETE CRUISER (8) – 10% confidence
Race 10 Analysis
Post Time
10:25 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a 1 1/4 mile marathon. Pace will be glacial. The riders will be jockeying for position for the first mile, waiting to make a move. Warlander and Hilliard are proven routers.
Key Contenders
Warlander (1) trained by Steve Asmussen is the heavy favorite. He has the stamina and the class. Breaking from the rail allows Rafael Hernandez to save every inch of ground. In a marathon, ground loss is fatal.
Hilliard (7) is a Mike Maker special. Maker excels at these marathon distances on turf and synthetic. Luan Machado riding for Maker in the last race is a very strong angle.
Secondary Choices
Accredit (11) is an 8-year-old veteran who knows how to run long. He won’t quit.
Zapruder (3) trained by Dale Romans gets Vincent Cheminaud. Cheminaud has soft hands and can get horses to relax, which is essential for the 10-furlong journey.
Longshots
Factor Analysis (6) trained by Eddie Kenneally has some upside at a price if the pace is truly slow and he is allowed to dictate terms.
Betting Strategy
Warlander and Hilliard are heads and shoulders above the rest. A straight Exacta Box 1-7 is the play to end the night.
Selections
Win: WARLANDER (1) – 40% confidence Place: HILLIARD (7) – 35% confidence Show: ACCREDIT (11) – 10% confidence Alternative: ZAPRUDER (3) – 5% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luan Machado is the rider to watch tonight. He has mounts in almost every race and is aboard key contenders for top barns like Cox, Maker, and Delacour. His familiarity with the Turfway track makes him a huge asset, especially in route races where timing is everything.
Gerardo Corrales and Rafael Hernandez are also sitting on live mounts. Hernandez, in particular, has strong mounts in the late Pick 4 sequence (Races 7-10).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox and Mike Maker are the dominant forces at Turfway Park. When they enter a horse, it is usually meant to win. Tonight, Cox has serious contenders in Races 6, 7, and 8. Maker looks strong in Races 8 and 10.
Arnaud Delacour is a trainer who spots his horses ambitiously but accurately. His entries in Races 4, 5, 8, and 9 should be respected, as they often go off at value odds compared to the Cox/Maker favorites.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the night comes in Race 6 with Don’t Say It (3). The combination of Brad Cox and Luan Machado in a sprint where the pace sets up for them is hard to look past.
For value, look at Consolidated (4) in Race 4. In a chaotic 14-horse field, having a class trainer like Delacour and a good post position offers a great risk/reward ratio.
Suggested Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10): Race 7: 5, 9 Race 8: 2, 10, 11 Race 9: 1, 3, 11 Race 10: 1, 7 Ticket Cost: $18 for a $0.50 denomination.
Good luck to all, and safe trips to the horses and riders!
