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Turfway Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 26, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

We are looking at a competitive evening of synthetic racing featuring a mix of maiden claiming, claiming, starter allowance, and a high-level allowance optional claiming feature in Race 9. With full fields and several intriguing form cycles, the Tapeta surface will test both speed and stamina across varying distances. Handicapping synthetic tracks requires a keen eye for turf-to-synthetic angles, trainer intent, and tactical speed.

Weather and Track Conditions

In Florence, current conditions are mostly cloudy at 37°F with 4 mph east winds, while the daily forecast predicts a high of 48°F and low of 32°F with a 40% chance of daytime light snow and clear skies tonight.

The Tapeta surface at Turfway is uniquely consistent. While the temperature sits in the mid-thirties, the wax coating on the synthetic track tends to remain compact and fast. When the temperature drops, the Tapeta often contracts, which can occasionally allow frontrunners to glide over the surface while expending less energy. However, historically, Turfway Park favors mid-pack stalkers who can commence their rallies around the three-eighths pole. Saving ground around the turns before tipping out in the stretch is generally the winning recipe. Look for horses dropping out of tougher turf routes or those with established form over synthetic surfaces at Woodbine or Presque Isle Downs.

Race 1

Post Time

05:55 PM

Pace Analysis

This opening one-mile maiden claiming event for three-year-old fillies features a modest pace projection. Several of these fillies are stretching out or lack early foot. Expect Daphne Brewnette (1) and Runway Rebel (4) to show early initiative, establishing a moderate tempo that should allow mid-pack stalkers to stay well within striking distance.

Key Contenders

Daphne Brewnette (1) draws the inside post and gets a favorable rider switch. Paulo Lobo is a highly capable trainer on this circuit, and this filly should get a ground-saving trip just behind the leaders. Ur Heart (9) is another Lobo trainee who drops into the maiden claiming ranks. With Joseph Ramos aboard, she projects to get a clean stalking trip and should appreciate the class relief.

Secondary Choices

My Secret Dreams (10) has shown flashes of ability and picks up Dylan Machado. She will need to improve her late kick but fits well within this claiming level. Sonic Sass (11) breaks from the far outside for Michael McCarthy. While the post is a disadvantage going a mile, the class drop and trainer prowess make her a dangerous factor if she can avoid losing too much ground on the first turn.

Longshots

Harbor Point (7) could sneak into the exotics at a price. Michael Stidham places his horses astutely, and this filly might appreciate the two-turn distance if she can settle early under Danny Sheehy.

Wagering Strategy

Key Ur Heart (9) on top of exactas and use Daphne Brewnette (1) defensively in the multi-race sequences.

Selections

Win: Ur Heart (9) – 45% confidence

Place: Daphne Brewnette (1) – 30% confidence

Show: Sonic Sass (11) – 15% confidence

Alternative: My Secret Dreams (10) – 10% confidence

Race 2

Post Time

06:25 PM

Pace Analysis

This six and a half furlong sprint for maiden fillies will likely feature a sharper pace. With Smoked Peach (1) and Finance Finance (5) both scratched, the pace scenario shifts slightly outward. Consider Elle Nore (6) and Beautiful Mckinzie (4) possess enough early speed to contest the lead, ensuring an honest pace that could set things up for a pressing type.

Key Contenders

Beautiful Mckinzie (4) draws well and has the tactical speed to secure a prime position early. Alex Achard is riding well, and this filly appears ready to break her maiden. Hope Rising (7) is a major threat for Ian Wilkes. Julien Leparoux is a master at timing late runs on synthetic surfaces, and this filly should be rolling late if the pace gets hot.

Secondary Choices

Always In Vogue (8) takes a slight drop and could improve in her second start of the form cycle. The Pretty One (10) has been working steadily and could be a factor if she breaks sharply from the ten hole.

Longshots

Berlinwin (11) could outrun her odds for Joe Sharp. She has a pedigree that suggests synthetic will be her preferred surface, and Gabriel Saez can be aggressive out of the gate.

Wagering Strategy

Box Beautiful Mckinzie (4) and Hope Rising (7) in the exacta, and use both to start early Pick 3 tickets.

Selections

Win: Hope Rising (7) – 40% confidence

Place: Beautiful Mckinzie (4) – 30% confidence

Show: Berlinwin (11) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Always In Vogue (8) – 10% confidence

Race 3

Post Time

06:55 PM

Pace Analysis

A field of older fillies and mares sprints six and a half furlongs for a bottom-level claiming tag. Flirting With Time (1) has natural speed from the rail, while Run Mama Run (5) will likely apply pressure from the middle of the gate. The pace should be brisk, favoring those who can sit just off the leaders.

Key Contenders

Flirting With Time (1) is the class of the field. Breaking from the rail, Gabriel Saez will likely send her early to dictate terms. If she clears, she could be tough to catch. Run Mama Run (5) gets a significant weight break with the apprentice allowance. Michael Maker is lethal at Turfway, and this three-year-old filly takes on older horses but fits the speed figures required to win here.

Secondary Choices

Seventeensevitysix (6) is a seasoned veteran who knows how to find the board. She will be closing late and is a must-use in underneath exotic positions. Tegwar (3) has tactical speed and should sit a clean trip right behind the top two pace factors.

Longshots

Coda Mia (2) is an interesting price play. She drops slightly in class and has shown an affinity for the local surface in the past.

Wagering Strategy

Flirting With Time (1) is a potential single in the horizontal wagers. Play a straight trifecta placing her over Run Mama Run (5) and Seventeensevitysix (6).

Selections

Win: Flirting With Time (1) – 50% confidence

Place: Run Mama Run (5) – 30% confidence

Show: Seventeensevitysix (6) – 10% confidence

Alternative: Tegwar (3) – 10% confidence

Race 4

Post Time

07:25 PM

Pace Analysis

This one-mile claiming event is heavily impacted by scratches, with Endless Vow (1), Freak City (2), Canterbury Lane (3), and Couldyoubeloved (7) all out. This leaves a much smaller field where Scribble (4) and True Class (8) project as the primary early pace factors. The tempo should be slow to moderate.

Key Contenders

True Class (8) looks formidable for Paulo Lobo. With the pace scenario compromised by scratches, she can sit a comfortable trip near the front and get first run at the leaders. Smooth Waves (10) is an experienced mare who should benefit from the class drop and the surface. Gregory Foley has her sharp, and Gabriel Saez is a positive addition.

Secondary Choices

Scribble (4) has early speed and could play catch me if you can. If allowed to dictate a slow pace, she might steal this race on the front end. Birkin Girl (5) has back class and should not be ignored if she can regain her form from late last year.

Longshots

Everything Bugs Me (6) is an intriguing option for the exotics. She will be doing her best running late and could pick up the pieces if the frontrunners tire.

Wagering Strategy

Due to the scratches, value will be light. Play True Class (8) to win and key her in daily doubles with the heavy favorites in the next leg.

Selections

Win: True Class (8) – 45% confidence

Place: Smooth Waves (10) – 35% confidence

Show: Scribble (4) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Birkin Girl (5) – 5% confidence

Race 5

Post Time

07:55 PM

Pace Analysis

A competitive maiden special weight going a mile. Several first-time starters complicate the pace picture, but Miss Milky Way (4) and Melody Maker (6) both appear to have early foot. Expect a solid but not exhausting pace.

Key Contenders

Overlook (3) is a well-bred filly for Michael Stidham who figures to be highly bet. Joseph Ramos will likely guide her into a stalking position, and she looks primed for a massive effort. Melody Maker (6) represents the Mark Casse barn, which consistently excels with young horses on synthetic surfaces. She should be forwardly placed throughout.

Secondary Choices

Island Girl (2) has local works that suggest she is ready for a strong debut. Ben Colebrook is a capable trainer, and Luan Machado is a great fit. Temple Goddess (5) has the experience edge over some of these and should be running on late.

Longshots

Hylla (12) is an interesting runner for Riley Mott. The outside post is tricky, but she possesses a turf-oriented pedigree that should translate beautifully to the Tapeta.

Wagering Strategy

Spread deep in the Pick 5 here. On straight wagers, back Overlook (3) to win and box her with Melody Maker (6) and Island Girl (2).

Selections

Win: Overlook (3) – 40% confidence

Place: Melody Maker (6) – 30% confidence

Show: Island Girl (2) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Hylla (12) – 15% confidence

Race 6

Post Time

08:25 PM

Pace Analysis

This one-mile starter allowance features a mix of veterans. With King Of Kentucky (1) scratched, the pace dynamics change. Del Mo (3) and Faster (8) should provide the early speed, setting an honest tempo.

Key Contenders

Track Ranger (4) comes in for David Jacobson and looks like a standout. He has superior speed figures and tactical versatility. Gerardo Corrales is a top rider here, and they should sit a perfect trip just off the leaders. Faster (8) will be the one they have to catch. He is razor sharp right now and Luan Machado will try to nurse his speed over the mile distance.

Secondary Choices

I Lucked Out (9) is a hard-knocking gelding who rarely runs a bad race. He will be rallying late and is a prime candidate for the place or show spot. Odorico (5) has back class and could awaken at a price.

Longshots

Gucci Man (6) is drawn well and has sneaky good synthetic form. If the pace collapses, he could be the one to pick up the pieces at generous odds.

Wagering Strategy

Track Ranger (4) is a standout. Single him in all multi-race exotics and play him on top of Faster (8) and I Lucked Out (9) in the trifecta.

Selections

Win: Track Ranger (4) – 50% confidence

Place: Faster (8) – 25% confidence

Show: I Lucked Out (9) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Gucci Man (6) – 10% confidence

Race 7

Post Time

08:55 PM

Pace Analysis

A compact field for this one-mile maiden claiming event following the scratches of Combustible Mass (2) and Typecase (7). Souperrazzledazzle (5) and Cool American (1) should vie for early control, leading to a moderate pace.

Key Contenders

Souperrazzledazzle (5) gets massive class relief dropping into the maiden claiming ranks. Jordan Blair places her well here, and she only needs to replicate her previous mid-pack efforts to graduate. She is Gotta Go (3) has plenty of experience and knocking on the door. Thomas Drury usually has them fit, and she should get a lovely stalking trip.

Secondary Choices

Tutta Bella (6) is another dropping in class for Paulo Lobo. She has not shown much yet, but this level should wake her up. Cool American (1) has early speed and could get brave if left alone on the front end.

Longshots

Chere Amia (4) has been dull recently but could improve with the surface switch and the addition of Luan Machado in the irons.

Wagering Strategy

Souperrazzledazzle (5) offers excellent value on the class drop. Key her on top of exactas with She is Gotta Go (3) and Tutta Bella (6).

Selections

Win: Souperrazzledazzle (5) – 45% confidence

Place: SHE IS GOTTA GO (3) – 30% confidence

Show: Tutta Bella (6) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Cool American (1) – 10% confidence

Race 8

Post Time

09:25 PM

Pace Analysis

This six-furlong claiming sprint will be fast. With Lord Majesty (4), Tagliatelle (3), and Willie Bird (5) scratched, the field size is reduced, but there is still plenty of speed. Highly Flammable (1) and Cut Glass (7) will be sent hard from the bell.

Key Contenders

Cut Glass (7) is a veteran sprinter who knows this track well. Luis Contreras takes the mount, and if he can avoid a speed duel, he has the class to put these away. Point Liam (8) will benefit the most from a hot pace. He will be sitting mid-pack and making one sustained run under Samuel Bermudez.

Secondary Choices

Highly Flammable (1) draws the rail and must go. If he clears easily, he could wire the field, but he will have company. Musical Maestro (2) is a consistent type who can sit just off the speed and pounce when the leaders tire.

Longshots

Swayback Jack (11) is an interesting late runner who could hit the board if the fractions get out of hand early.

Wagering Strategy

Pace collapse is likely. Play Point Liam (8) across the board and key him underneath in exactas with Cut Glass (7).

Selections

Win: Cut Glass (7) – 40% confidence

Place: Point Liam (8) – 30% confidence

Show: Musical Maestro (2) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Highly Flammable (1) – 10% confidence

Race 9

Post Time

09:55 PM

Pace Analysis

The feature race of the night is a one-mile allowance optional claiming event. The pace should be honest with Universal Sound (4) and Classic Creation (9) both possessing natural early speed. They will ensure a true test of stamina for this deep field.

Key Contenders

De Medici (12) is a high-quality runner for Michael McCarthy. He has outstanding turf form that should easily transfer to the Tapeta. Walter Rodriguez will likely tuck him in mid-pack and unleash him in the stretch. Sound Cause (11) represents the powerful Steven Asmussen barn. He has tremendous tactical speed and Joseph Ramos will have him perfectly positioned turning for home.

Secondary Choices

English Law (3) is a lightly raced improver for William Walden. He steps up in class but has the figures to compete. The Dover Specter (6) is a consistent synthetic performer who rarely misses the board and must be included in all exotic wagers.

Longshots

Coalmoon (5) is an intriguing price play for Paulo Lobo. He loves this track and Luan Machado knows exactly when to ask him for his run.

Wagering Strategy

Box De Medici (12) and Sound Cause (11) in the exacta. For a larger score, wheel Coalmoon (5) in the place and show spots of the trifecta.

Selections

Win: DE MEDICI (12) – 40% confidence

Place: Sound Cause (11) – 30% confidence

Show: English Law (3) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Coalmoon (5) – 15% confidence

Race 10

Post Time

10:25 PM

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a chaotic six and a half furlong maiden claimer. With Coach Rudy (9) and Marteck (8) scratched, the field is still large and wide open. Expect a scramble for the early lead, with Gotta Jet (5) and Baytown Anubis (14) pushing the tempo.

Key Contenders

T Ray (4) has been knocking on the door for John Ennis. Alex Achard takes the mount, and this gelding should get a perfect stalking trip just behind the first flight. My Milestone (12) takes a crucial drop in class for Joe Sharp. Gabriel Saez is a positive rider change, and he looks well-placed against this modest group.

Secondary Choices

Lion Dart (1) is a stablemate to T Ray (4) and also commands respect. He has tactical speed and can carve out a good trip from the inside post. Mencke (11) could improve in his second start off the layoff for Tim Girten.

Longshots

Barstool (7) is a first-time starter who has been working steadily. If the pace is hot, he could be rolling late at a massive price.

Wagering Strategy

Wide open nightcap. Box T Ray (4), My Milestone (12), and Lion Dart (1). If you are alive in the Pick 4, hit the All button if your budget allows.

Selections

Win: T RAY (4) – 35% confidence

Place: My Milestone (12) – 30% confidence

Show: Lion Dart (1) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Mencke (11) – 15% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Several riders stand out on the Turfway Park colony right now. Luan Machado is riding with supreme confidence and has a great clock in his head for these route races. He is exceptional at saving ground and finding late seams. Gabriel Saez brings an aggressive, forward-leaning style that plays very well in the sprint races, ensuring his mounts are never left with too much to do. Joseph Ramos is another rider who consistently puts his horses in winning positions, especially for top barns like Paulo Lobo and Michael Stidham. Keep an eye on the apprentice riders as well; the weight break can be the deciding factor in these tight claiming events.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Paulo Lobo has a remarkably strong hand on tonight is card, entering several live contenders across multiple classes. His horses are always fit and generally well-spotted. Michael Stidham ships in a few promising maidens, and his runners usually transition smoothly to the synthetic surface due to their turf foundations. Joe Sharp is a master at dropping horses to the right level to secure a win, so pay close attention to his maiden claimers tonight. Finally, Mark Casse has a legendary synthetic operation; his first-time starters and lightly raced horses always merit respect on the Tapeta.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 6 looks particularly inviting tonight. You can find a reliable single in Race 6 with Track Ranger (4), who appears superior to his rivals on paper. This allows you to spread deeper in the contentious maiden claiming event in Race 7 and the chaotic sprint in Race 8. In the feature Race 9, lean heavily on the class of De Medici (12) and Sound Cause (11), but throw in Coalmoon (5) at a price on your deeper tickets.

A great value play on the card comes in Race 9 with Coalmoon (5). At his likely morning line odds, he offers tremendous value as a horse who possesses a proven affinity for this exact track and distance. Another angle to exploit is the turf-to-synthetic transition, particularly in the maiden special weight in Race 5. Stalking trips are gold at Turfway, so isolate horses drawn in the middle posts who possess tactical speed, and structure your exactas by putting them on top of the deep closers.

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