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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
We have a solid eight-race slate featuring a mix of claiming, maiden claiming, and allowance races. With several competitive fields, especially in the Oklahoma-bred ranks, there are plenty of angles to explore and value to be found on the dirt track today.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today in Claremore, the current conditions indicate 44°F, mostly sunny, with a wind speed of 12 mph from the south and a 0% chance of rain. Expect partly sunny conditions throughout the day with a high temperature of 67°F and a low temperature of 42°F. The humidity is at 62%, and there is a 10% chance of rain during the day and night. Winds are from the south at a speed of 18 mph. Based on these favorable conditions, the main dirt track should play fast and fair throughout the afternoon. Historically, Will Rogers Downs can exhibit a slight bias toward early speed on the dirt, particularly in the sprint races. Riders who can secure a forward position along the rail often find an advantage, but off-the-pace types can get there if the early fractions are too hot.
Jockey Notes and Insights
David Cabrera continues to be a dominant force and has prime mounts across the card today, including Baseball Politics in the opener and K Q Spirit in the second race. His ability to rate horses and find the winner’s circle makes him a key factor in any race he rides. Leandro D. Goncalves is another top-tier rider to watch, sitting on live contenders like Runhappy d’Oro and Washita Valley. Ronnie Huckaby benefits from a weight allowance and has live mounts that could outrun their odds, including the intriguing Howboutcha.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Scott E. Young brings a strong string to the track today, emphasizing well-placed claiming horses like Runhappy d’Oro and Copper Magician. His runners are usually sharp and ready to fire. Mark W. Buehrer has a solid one-two punch in the first race, indicating his barn is firing on all cylinders. Francisco Bravo sends out the formidable Washita Valley, a horse that looks incredibly tough to beat in the second race.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
For today’s card, structuring your multi-race wagers around logical singles will be the key to unlocking the Pick 4 and Pick 5 pools. Washita Valley in Race 2 appears to be a standout single to build tickets around. Additionally, leaning on the inside posts in the shorter sprints could yield dividends. A value play could be found in Race 5 with Gospel Blossom, who might offer a square price against the favorites.
Race 1
Post Time
01:15PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong sprint should feature a contested pace. Baseball Politics and Runhappy d’Oro both possess early foot and will likely push each other from the break. Twentyone N Change might try to sit just off the speed duel, waiting to pounce in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Runhappy d’Oro draws the rail and gets the services of Leandro D. Goncalves. This six-year-old gelding drops in class and fits perfectly at this level. Handicappers agree that his early speed makes him a prime threat.
Baseball Politics is the morning-line favorite and is drawn favorably on the outside. David Cabrera takes the mount for trainer Mark W. Buehrer, and this eight-year-old veteran has the class and back class to handle this field.
Secondary Choices
Twentyone N Change offers an alternative if the pace collapses. Rene Diaz will look to position him for a late run. Berry Mischievous receives a beneficial weight allowance and could factor into the exotics if he can keep contact with the field early.
Longshots
Sidetown is an eight-year-old who might need everything to go his way, but if the leaders completely stop, he could pick up the pieces for a minor share.
Selections
Win: Baseball Politics (5) – 40% confidence
Place: Runhappy d’Oro (1) – 35% confidence
Show: Twentyone N Change (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Berry Mischievous (2) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
01:47PM
Pace Analysis
Washita Valley should dictate the terms in this six-furlong test for Oklahoma-breds. Howboutcha might try to stay close, but the early advantage goes to the favorite.
Key Contenders
Washita Valley is the heavy consensus favorite and looks incredibly tough to beat. He was a solid second last time out at this track and distance. Leandro D. Goncalves retains the mount, and this five-year-old gelding appears ready to break through.
K Q Spirit broke his maiden impressively last time out at Remington Park and looks poised to take the next step. David Cabrera rides for Juan Padilla, making him the logical alternative to the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Howboutcha gets a significant weight break carrying 113.5 pounds with Ronnie Huckaby aboard. He has tactical speed and could complete the exacta if he runs to his potential.
Longshots
Work Zone has faced tougher company in the past and could outrun his morning line odds if Richard Eramia can negotiate a clean trip.
Selections
Win: Washita Valley (3) – 55% confidence
Place: K Q Spirit (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Howboutcha (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Work Zone (6) – 5% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
02:14PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile route features a modest amount of early speed. Uptono Buena could find himself on the lead by default, while Copper Magician should sit a perfect stalking trip just behind the pacesetter.
Key Contenders
Copper Magician is a standout for trainer Scott E. Young. Rene Diaz gets the leg up, and this four-year-old has the pedigree and tactical speed to handle the two-turn distance efficiently.
Uptono Buena will be dangerous if allowed to dictate the pace without pressure. Leandro D. Goncalves is a master at judging fractions on the front end.
Secondary Choices
Stonington offers some appeal with Ronnie Huckaby aboard. If the pace is honest, he could be rolling late.
Longshots
Crab Crunch and Buck Pie both have something to prove at this level but could hit the board if the favorites falter.
Selections
Win: Copper Magician (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Uptono Buena (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Stonington (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Crab Crunch (3) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
02:46PM
Pace Analysis
A competitive six-furlong sprint for the fillies and mares. Because and All Aflutter should be part of the early pace scenario. The fractions could be swift, setting things up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Because has been heavily backed by handicappers and appears to be a legitimate threat. Isaiah Wiseman will try to guide this seven-year-old mare to a prominent early position.
All Aflutter has class relief and gets David Cabrera in the irons. She is capable of producing a big effort against this group.
Secondary Choices
Accelerate Judy has drawn the rail and gets a weight break with Ronnie Huckaby. If she breaks cleanly, she can contend for a slice.
Longshots
Natusia and Undecoded are capable of rounding out the trifecta or superfecta at decent odds if they get the right setup.
Selections
Win: Because (5) – 40% confidence
Place: All Aflutter (2) – 35% confidence
Show: Accelerate Judy (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Natusia (6) – 10% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
03:18PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming sprint should be chaotic with several lightly raced types. Commander Chick and Zayla might be the ones to catch early.
Key Contenders
Gospel Blossom looks like a strong play at a decent price. Angel Ortega Stanley rides for Steve F. Williams, and this five-year-old mare has the experience edge over many in this field.
Ruby’s Posse has been knocking on the door and gets Rene Diaz aboard. She should be closing in the lane.
Secondary Choices
Zayla has the rail and Leandro D. Goncalves, making her a dangerous front-running threat. Commander Chick gets in light and could be involved early.
Longshots
Eurpurdy and Osage Express both need to improve to win but are eligible to hit the board in a wide-open affair.
Selections
Win: Gospel Blossom (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Ruby’s Posse (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Zayla (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Commander Chick (4) – 15% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
03:45PM
Pace Analysis
A five and a half furlong sprint for Oklahoma-bred fillies and mares. Misses Millie and Thundermunnyball should guarantee an honest pace.
Key Contenders
Misses Millie is the logical favorite based on recent form. Alberto Pusac will look to stalk and pounce on the leaders.
Mystical Code is a consistent type who always seems to fire. Weston Hamilton will have her positioned well throughout.
Secondary Choices
Thundermunnyball draws the rail with David Cabrera, a highly potent combination. Avie Rae gets a weight allowance and could sneak into the exotics.
Longshots
Gospel Precious and Becky Is Sexy have enough back class to make their presence felt if the race falls apart.
Selections
Win: Misses Millie (6) – 35% confidence
Place: Mystical Code (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Thundermunnyball (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Gospel Precious (8) – 15% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
04:12PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile allowance event is the feature of the day. So Jacksann and Catale Winemixer might vie for early supremacy, ensuring a fair tempo.
Key Contenders
Eireann looks formidable for Mark W. Buehrer with Rene Diaz riding. She has shown ability at this level and distance.
So Jordan gets David Cabrera and has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip just off the leaders.
Secondary Choices
So Jacksann gets Leandro D. Goncalves and cannot be ignored. Imamidnightspecial gets a weight break and could be a factor in the final furlong.
Longshots
Catale Winemixer and Angel Kiss both have upside and could spring an upset at juicy odds.
Selections
Win: Eireann (6) – 35% confidence
Place: So Jordan (4) – 30% confidence
Show: So Jacksann (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Imamidnightspecial (2) – 15% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
04:39PM
Pace Analysis
A full field of ten closes out the card going a mile. Chi Town Road and Mr Oklahoma should ensure the pace is honest from the start.
Key Contenders
Chi Town Road gets the inside draw and David Cabrera. He has been highly competitive at this level and looks like a serious win candidate.
Mr Oklahoma is drawn well and gets Leandro D. Goncalves. Scott E. Young has this four-year-old ready for a peak effort.
Secondary Choices
Momissioner has upside and could offer some value. Leviathan Axe is a consistent performer who usually finds the board.
Longshots
Grandsonsam and Boca Guy are capable of spicing up the exotics at big prices.
Selections
Win: Chi Town Road (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Mr Oklahoma (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Momissioner (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Leviathan Axe (10) – 15% confidence
