Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The 2025 Woodbine meet nears its conclusion with a chilly but competitive 10-race card. Today’s feature is the $100,000 La Prevoyante Stakes in Race 9, showcasing Ontario-sired fillies and mares. With the season winding down, jockey and trainer titles are hotly contested, adding intensity to every finish.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: Toronto is expecting a wintry day with overcast skies and light snow in the morning. Temperatures will hover around -3°C (27°F), but brisk winds gusting up to 47 km/h will create a wind chill near -9°C (16°F).

Track Condition: Woodbine’s Tapeta synthetic surface is designed to handle these conditions and is expected to be listed as Fast. However, the extreme cold often tightens the surface, potentially leading to slightly slower final times.

Track Bias:

• Sprints (6F – 7F): The Tapeta surface typically plays fair, but in cold weather, horses with tactical speed who can secure position near the rail (posts 1-3) often hold an advantage over closers who may struggle to make up ground against the wind.
• Routes (1 1/16M – 1 1/4M): Ground saving is premium. Horses that can secure a stalking position without being hung wide on the turns are preferred.

Jockey and Trainer Notes and Insights

Jockeys to Watch:

• Rafael Hernandez: Currently locked in a fierce battle for the riding title, Hernandez has been riding aggressively and is a must-use on contenders, particularly in sprints.
• Pietro Moran: The apprentice has had a breakout season and continues to offer value, especially when riding for top barns. His bug allowance is a significant factor in these colder, heavier conditions.

Trainers to Watch:

• Mark Casse: The leading trainer dominates the stakes ranks and has strong entries in the feature race.
• Martin Drexler: His barn excels with claimers and synthetic routers. Watch his entries in the claiming races and the late Double; they are often live and well-meant.

Race 1: Maiden Optional Claiming

Post Time: 1:05 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

A moderate early pace is expected. Cupids Best Arrow has shown flashes of early foot and should be involved from the break. Angel Danielle may also press the issue, creating a contested front end that could test the stamina of the leaders in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

Cupids Best Arrow: Returns to a sprint distance that suits her style. She battled on the lead in her last outing before tiring but faces a slightly softer group here. If she can control the fractions, she is the one to catch.
Angel Danielle: Had a sluggish start in her debut but has since put in steady works. With a cleaner break, she figures to be right in the mix and has room for significant improvement.

Secondary Choices

Silent Strike: Removes the cheek pieces for this effort. She has been inconsistent but drops into a spot where her best effort would make her competitive.
Aint No Girly Girl: A consistent check-earner at this level. She rarely runs a bad race and is a logical candidate for the bottom of exotics.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Cupids Best Arrow
• Exacta Box: Cupids Best Arrow / Angel Danielle
• Trifecta: Cupids Best Arrow with Angel Danielle / Aint No Girly Girl / Silent Strike

Selections

Win: Cupids Best Arrow
Place: Angel Danielle
Show: Aint No Girly Girl

Race 2: Maiden Optional Claiming

Post Time: 1:34 PM ET
Distance: 7 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Katherine’s Cub possesses the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders or dictate terms if the pace is slow. Big Screen Boss also has speed and will likely ensure an honest tempo. The 7-furlong distance rewards horses that can relax early and kick on late.

Key Contenders

Katherine’s Cub: The clear horse to beat. She has finished second in four consecutive starts, showing consistency but an inability to seal the deal. This field looks manageable, and today could finally be her day to break through.
Big Screen Boss: Flashed potential in previous starts and pairs well with this distance. Expect him to be a major player in the lane.

Secondary Choices

Lohan: Takes a drop in class or finds a more suitable group here. His late kick could be dangerous if the top two engage in a duel too early.
Awesome Beat: A steady performer who should benefit from the 7-furlong trip. A reliable board hitter.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Katherine’s Cub (Single in multi-race wagers if price allows)
• Exacta: Katherine’s Cub over Big Screen Boss / Lohan

Selections

Win: Katherine’s Cub
Place: Big Screen Boss
Show: Lohan

Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming

Post Time: 2:03 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Souper Sunday and Katherine’s Gem are the primary speed influences. Expect a brisk opening quarter which could set the table for a stalker.

Key Contenders

Souper Sunday: A veteran mare who knows where the wire is. She drops into a comfortable spot and has the speed to clear this field.
Soupergirl: Coming off a solid effort against better company. She should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed and has the class to run them down.

Secondary Choices

Prima: A consistent runner who fits well at this level. She may not have the upside of the top two but is reliable for a share.
Katherine’s Gem: Dangerous if left alone on the lead, though she may face pressure today.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Souper Sunday
• Exacta Box: Souper Sunday / Soupergirl

Selections

Win: Souper Sunday
Place: Soupergirl
Show: Prima

Race 4: Claiming

Post Time: 2:33 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Brengungirl cuts back in distance after a failed route attempt and should show more early zip. Dancetotherhythm also has speed, likely ensuring a contested pace.

Key Contenders

Enchanted Forest: Exits a tougher race where she finished a non-threatening third. The class relief here is significant, and she should find this group much more to her liking.
Brengungirl: The cutback to 6 furlongs is a major angle. She was the favorite in her last route race but came up empty; returning to a sprint should wake her up.

Secondary Choices

I Love to Win: Faced much tougher N1X competition in her last start after a long layoff. With that race under her belt and a massive class drop, she is a dangerous sleeper.
Dancetotherhythm: Speed threat who could hang around for a minor share if not pressured too hard.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Enchanted Forest
• Double: Enchanted Forest with Monty’s Inn (Race 5)

Selections

Win: Enchanted Forest
Place: Brengungirl
Show: I Love to Win

Race 5: Claiming

Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Monty’s Inn projects to be the controlling speed or sit a perfect pocket trip. Skylight Caper will likely be in close attendance.

Key Contenders

Monty’s Inn: The morning line favorite for a reason. She has been in good form and finds a soft spot to notch a win. Her tactical speed is her biggest weapon.
Skylight Caper: A logical alternative who has been knocking on the door. If the favorite falters, she is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.

Secondary Choices

Rock Hard Rose: Offers some value underneath. She has competitive speed figures for this level.
Cloud Rider: A veteran who could clunk up for a piece of the exotics at a price.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Monty’s Inn
• Exacta: Monty’s Inn over Skylight Caper

Selections

Win: Monty’s Inn
Place: Skylight Caper
Show: Rock Hard Rose

Race 6: Maiden Optional Claiming

Post Time: 3:33 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

A race filled with young fillies, so the pace scenario is volatile. Shoot showed little in her debut but may improve. Regal Affair has shown a closing kick, suggesting a fast pace would benefit her.

Key Contenders

Regal Affair: Has closed well to be third in both career starts. She seems primed to improve and the likely honest pace should set up her late run perfectly.
Rose Fortune: Ran a solid fourth in her last outing, beaten only a length. That form is strong for this field, and she is a major player.

Secondary Choices

Shoot: Trained by Robert Tiller, she debuted on November 22 and fell back. Expect a much sharper effort with that experience behind her.
Daou: A fringe player who hits the board often enough to be included in deeper trifectas.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Regal Affair
• Exacta Box: Regal Affair / Rose Fortune

Selections

Win: Regal Affair
Place: Rose Fortune
Show: Shoot

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time: 4:03 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

At this marathon distance, the pace will be slow and tactical. Fly the W typically shows speed and could find himself loose on the lead, which makes him incredibly dangerous.

Key Contenders

Fly the W: A synthetic specialist who loves this track. His ability to carry his speed over a distance makes him the horse to beat.
Faber: A consistent check-getter who will likely be stalking the favorite. He will need to move early to catch the leader.

Secondary Choices

Onenightstandards: A grinder who will appreciate the 1 1/4 mile distance. He will be running on at the end when others are tiring.
C My Meister: Always competitive at these longer distances.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Fly the W
• Trifecta: Fly the W over Faber / Onenightstandards / C My Meister

Selections

Win: Fly the W
Place: Faber
Show: Onenightstandards

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time: 4:36 PM ET
Distance: 7 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Periwinkle and Neenah both possess early speed. This could set up a duel, but in a small field, they might settle 1-2 around the track.

Key Contenders

Periwinkle: She has been in excellent form and fits this condition perfectly. Her speed figures suggest she is a cut above the rest.
Neenah: The main danger. She has been facing tough company and should find this group a bit easier.

Secondary Choices

Dazzling Cruiser: A consistent mare who will be running late. If the top two wear each other out, she picks up the pieces.
Going Lucky: Steps up in class but has shown ability.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Periwinkle
• Exacta: Periwinkle / Neenah

Selections

Win: Periwinkle
Place: Neenah
Show: Dazzling Cruiser

Race 9: La Prevoyante Stakes

Post Time: 5:09 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

Hurricane Clair has the speed to lead but can also rate. Hint showed speed in her debut but may try to settle here. The lack of pure rabbits suggests a moderate pace, favoring those near the front.

Key Contenders

Hurricane Clair: A dominant winner against N2X company back in July and has been facing Graded Stakes foes since. The class relief here is massive, and removing blinkers suggests the trainer wants her to relax and finish. She is the class of the field.
War Painter: clearly best when beating three-year-olds in the Ashbridges Bay Stakes. She is in peak form and draws well to work out a stalking trip.

Secondary Choices

Ella It Is: Always competitive and has the pedigree to handle the distance. A must-use in exotics.
Hint: The “now” horse. She is lightly raced but has shown immense talent. This is a class test, but she has the highest ceiling.

Betting Strategy

• Win: Hurricane Clair
• Exacta Box: Hurricane Clair / War Painter
• Value Play: Hint to hit the board.

Selections

Win: Hurricane Clair
Place: War Painter
Show: Hint

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time: 5:40 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Pace Analysis

A chaotic sprint to end the day. Canadiansweetheart and Just Follow Me will ensure the pace is hot. This sets up well for a closer or a stalker who can get first run.

Key Contenders

Anam Cara: Drops into a very winnable spot. She has back class and should be flying late.
Just Follow Me: A consistent sprinter who is always in the mix. She will be on or near the lead and is tough to pass.

Secondary Choices

Bit of Music: A price horse who could spice up the Super High 5.
Give Me the Boots: Another closer who will benefit if the pace melts down.

Betting Strategy

• Mandatory Payout Alert: The Super High 5 has a mandatory payout today.
• Wager: Key Anam Cara and Just Follow Me on top of your High 5 tickets, and spread deep in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th spots with longshots like Bit of Music.

Selections

Win: Anam Cara
Place: Just Follow Me
Show: Give Me the Boots

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Best Bet of the Day:
Race 7: Fly the W. He dominates at this distance on the synthetic and should control the race from the start.

Best Longshot:
Race 4: I Love to Win. The class drop and second start off the layoff are powerful angles that could result in a big upset.

Mandatory Payout Play:
Race 10 Super High 5: Focus on Anam Cara and Just Follow Me to anchor your tickets, but use the “All” button for the bottom rungs of the wager to capture a massive payout if a bomb hits the board.