Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.
Today’s seven-race card at Woodbine features a competitive mix of maiden claiming events, standard claiming races, and allowance competition across the reliable Tapeta synthetic surface and inner turf course. Current weather conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures holding at a crisp 4°C, creating ideal racing conditions for both synthetic and turf surfaces.
Track Conditions and Weather
The Tapeta synthetic surface at Woodbine continues to provide one of the safest racing surfaces in North America, with breakdown rates of just 0.42 per 1,000 starts compared to 1.44 on traditional dirt tracks. The consistent playing surface eliminates weather-related variations that often affect dirt tracks, particularly important given today’s cooler temperatures and cloudy conditions. The inner turf course should handle the mild moisture well, with no significant weather concerns expected throughout the afternoon.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs, Synthetic)
Key Contenders: Naughty Destiny emerges as the morning line favorite at 2-1, bringing four-year-old experience under the guidance of trainer Martin Drexler. The filly has shown consistency in recent workouts and benefits from the expertise of jockey Eswan Flores. Noyzee Girl at 3-1 offers solid secondary value, with trainer Roy George Agostino’s stable showing improved form recently.
Secondary Choices: Crumlin Beach at 4-1 represents solid value under David Moran’s guidance, trained by Michael J. Doyle, whose barn has demonstrated consistency with maiden claimers. Sweet Valentine, despite carrying apprentice weight with Austin Adams, could surprise at longer odds with her tactical speed.
Pace Analysis: The race sets up as a moderate pace scenario, with Naughty Destiny and Crumlin Beach likely to establish the early fractions while Noyzee Girl and Sweet Valentine press from just off the lead.
Race 2 – Claiming (1 1/16 Miles, Inner Turf)
This $52,400 claiming race for horses that have never won two races presents an intriguing mix of lightly raced prospects and experienced campaigners competing over the demanding 1 1/16-mile inner turf course.
Morning Line Favorites and Analysis
Silver Raleigh (PP #5) – 5/2 Favorite
The five-year-old gelding by Funtastic enters as the strong morning line favorite under Fraser Aebly for trainer Barbara J. Minshall. Handicapper Doug McPherson lists him as his “Best Bet” of the day, noting that Silver Raleigh “exits a good second over nine” furlongs in his most recent effort.
Trainer Minshall maintains a solid 19% win rate in 2025 with current earnings of $741,274, demonstrating consistent quality with her claiming horses. Jockey Fraser Aebly brings impressive credentials, having secured 68 wins at Woodbine in 2023 while finishing in the top three in 44% of his races with $1.10 million in purse earnings. The British Columbia native has adapted well to Woodbine’s turf courses since relocating from Western Canada.
Motion Granted (PP #9) – 3/1 Second Choice
The four-year-old gelding represents excellent value at 3/1 for trainer Nathan Squires and veteran jockey David Moran. Recent form figures of -457754 show inconsistency but indicate recent improvement. The gelding posted a solid second-place finish on August 3rd and carries a respectable 79 Best E Speed Figure while earning $2,283 per start.
Trainer Squires has shown consistent activity with this horse, and the partnership with David Moran provides experienced race-riding tactics crucial for turf route success. The gelding’s breeding suggests route capability, and his recent form trend points upward.
The Tino Attard Factor
Starvin (PP #2) – 7/2 Third Choice
This three-year-old gelding represents one of the most intriguing betting propositions under Pietro Moran for the powerful Tino Attard stable. Previous race analysis from September noted that Starvin “did not have the best of trips when kicking off his season for $40,000 on August 3” and “should be live taking a class drop for his second start off of the layoff”.
The Attard operation maintains a 13% win rate with strong placement percentages, and their claiming horses often show significant improvement when properly placed. Starvin carries 118 pounds with Pietro Moran’s apprentice allowance, creating a favorable weight scenario for the lightly raced gelding.
Secondary Contenders
Southern Style (PP #8) – 6/1
The four-year-old gelding trained by Gail Cox carries 123 pounds under Jose Luis Campos and represents Doug McPherson’s third selection. His placement in the handicapper’s top four suggests hidden form that could surprise at the price.
Highly Potent (PP #4) – 8/1
Another of McPherson’s selections, this three-year-old gelding for trainer Philip Hall offers potential value carrying 119 pounds under Keveh Nicholls.
Pace and Trip Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile inner turf course demands tactical positioning, particularly through the first turn where traffic problems can develop quickly. The race should unfold with moderate early fractions, allowing tactical types like Silver Raleigh and Motion Granted to secure favorable stalking positions.
Starvin’s early speed could prove advantageous if Pietro Moran can secure a clear trip around the first turn, while the experienced Silver Raleigh should benefit from Fraser Aebly’s patient tactics.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The Barbara Minshall/Fraser Aebly partnership with Silver Raleigh represents the strongest trainer-jockey combination, combining Minshall’s 19% win rate with Aebly’s 44% in-the-money percentage. The Tino Attard/Pietro Moran team brings championship-level expertise, particularly effective with lightly raced horses stepping up in class.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Silver Raleigh offers solid value at 5/2 despite being the favorite, supported by professional handicapping opinion and strong connections.
Place/Show Value: Motion Granted at 3/1 provides excellent place and show value given his recent form improvement and proven route ability.
Exacta Opportunities: The 5-9 exacta (Silver Raleigh over Motion Granted) offers the highest probability combination, while the reverse 9-5 provides solid value.
Longshot Play: Starvin at 7/2 represents the best value play, particularly given the Attard stable’s improvement record with claiming horses.
Final Selections: Win: Silver Raleigh; Place: Motion Granted; Show: Starvin; Exacta: 5-9, 9-5; Longshot Special: Starvin.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic)
This $114,600 allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares represents the day’s richest race, bringing together a competitive field of seven fillies and mares over Woodbine’s proven Tapeta synthetic surface. The conditions favor horses that have never won $9,000 once other than in maiden, claiming, or restricted company, setting up an intriguing class test.
The Heavy Favorite
Theft (PP #1) – 5/2 Morning Line Favorite
The four-year-old filly enters as the strong favorite under Rafael Hernandez for Hall of Fame trainer Josie Carroll. Theft brings impressive credentials with an 86 Best E Speed Figure and earnings of $16,569 per start, indicating consistent quality at this level.
Carroll’s credentials speak volumes – the Canadian trainer reached 1,000 career victories in 2024 and maintains a 20% win rate in 2025 with current earnings exceeding $2.2 million. Her resume includes three Queen’s Plate victories, making her the first female trainer to capture Canada’s premier race in 2006 with Edenwold. Carroll currently ranks among Woodbine’s leading trainers with 30 wins from 149 starts.
Hernandez brings championship-level experience with a 29% win rate when paired with this caliber of horse. The combination has proven successful throughout the meet, making them the logical choice despite the short price.
The Form Horse
Why Em Sea Ay (PP #3) – 4/1 Second Choice
Fraser Aebly’s mount represents exceptional value coming off a dominant victory on October 13th at Woodbine, winning by 3.75 lengths under identical conditions. The four-year-old Mucho Macho Man filly has demonstrated clear improvement on the synthetic surface after struggling initially on turf.
Trainer Barbara Minshall maintains solid form with a 19% win rate and strong earnings per start. The Aebly-Minshall partnership proved effective with Silver Raleigh in Race 2, and Why Em Sea Ay brings superior recent form to this assignment. Her synthetic record shows marked improvement, with the October 13th victory representing a career-best effort.
Equipment changes noted in previous races included adding blinkers, which appeared to sharpen her focus and improve her tactical speed. The combination of proven synthetic form and strong connections makes her an excellent win candidate at the price.
The Veteran Threat
Flying Black (PP #4) – 6/1 Third Choice
Pietro Moran’s mount brings the most intriguing storyline, as the partnership seeks their fourth consecutive victory together. The seven-year-old mare by Algorithms carries just 118 pounds with Moran’s apprentice allowance, creating a significant weight advantage.
Recent form shows Flying Black won at this track on August 15th by 0.8 lengths over 1811 meters, demonstrating her effectiveness over similar distances. Her career statistics reveal strong placement percentages (47% in-the-money) with earnings averaging $6,977 per start. The mare’s synthetic record shows 12 starts with 3 wins, 1 second, and 3 thirds, indicating consistent performance on the surface.
Moran’s improvement as an apprentice jockey has been remarkable, currently ranking second among Woodbine riders with 48 wins from 231 starts, posting a 21% win rate. His partnership with Flying Black represents one of racing’s most successful current combinations.
The Developing Three-Year-Old
Reveler’s Row (PP #5) – 3/1
Eswan Flores takes over the riding duties on this daughter of Mucho Macho Man for trainer Katerina Vassilieva. The three-year-old filly checked sixth in the prestigious July 20th Woodbine Oaks, indicating she has competed at a higher level.
Vassilieva brings graded stakes-winning credentials with a solid 13% win rate from 24 starts in 2025, earning $270,485 and maintaining a 46% in-the-money percentage. The trainer’s experience with fillies stepping up in class could prove crucial in this spot.
Flores provides tactical riding ability, particularly effective with horses that benefit from patient handling. The equipment and jockey change suggests connections believe in the filly’s potential for improvement.
Secondary Considerations
Scat Girl (PP #2) – 8/1
Leo Salles’ mount brings three-year-old potential under the guidance of trainer Michael P. De Paulo. Her recent third-place finish showed competitive ability, beaten just 2.50 lengths after a 350-day layoff. The Audible filly could benefit from the race fitness gained in that effort.
Bound to Be True (PP #6) – 10/1 and Logistics (PP #7) – 12/1
Both represent longer-shot possibilities, with Bound to Be True trained by Nathan Squires showing some promise, while Logistics carries the lightest weight at 116 pounds under Xarel Forde.
Pace and Trip Scenario
The 1 1/16-mile synthetic race should develop with moderate early fractions, allowing tactical horses like Why Em Sea Ay and Flying Black to position effectively. Theft’s early speed could establish the pace, while Reveler’s Row and the other fillies settle into stalking positions.
The Tapeta surface typically produces honest pace scenarios, favoring horses with proven synthetic credentials. Flying Black’s recent winning streak on the surface, combined with Why Em Sea Ay’s breakthrough performance, suggests the race will favor horses with established synthetic form.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Why Em Sea Ay offers the best value at 4/1, combining recent winning form with favorable connections and proven synthetic ability.
Place/Show Value: Flying Black provides excellent exotic value given her winning streak and weight advantage.
Exacta Opportunities: The 3-4 exacta (Why Em Sea Ay over Flying Black) offers solid value, while the 1-3 combination covers the favorite-form horse scenario.
Longshot Special: Reveler’s Row at 3/1 represents value given her Woodbine Oaks experience and trainer’s graded stakes credentials.
Final Selections: Win: Why Em Sea Ay; Place: Flying Black; Show: Theft; Exacta: 3-4, 3-1; Trifecta: 3-4-1, 3-1-4.
Race 4 – Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic)
Key Contenders: Three Sonny Sideup emerges as an intriguing longshot at 8-1 under Pietro Moran’s guidance. The combination of trainer Richard L. Morden and the apprentice jockey creates value opportunities. Tiz Romantic and Embrace My Uncle form the early betting favorites but face questions about recent form.
Longshot Special: Three Sonny Sideup represents the day’s best longshot value, combining recent workouts with a favorable weight allowance.
Pace Analysis: The starter field should develop moderate early fractions, setting up potential for late closers to make impact.
Race 5 – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs, Synthetic)
Key Contenders: Crucial Taunt at 6-1 represents outstanding value under Pietro Moran’s guidance. The three-year-old colt posted a career-high 74 Beyer Speed Figure in his penultimate start and has shown improved form since being claimed. Groot enters as the morning line favorite but faces stronger competition than recent efforts.
Secondary Choices: Secret Threat and Wico offer solid alternatives, both carrying experience advantages over the younger horses.
Pace Analysis: The sprint distance favors early speed, with Crucial Taunt positioned to capitalize on a strong pace setup.
Race 6 – Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs, Synthetic)
Key Contenders: Love You Lippy headlines the field at 2-1 under Pietro Moran’s guidance, bringing solid sprint credentials to the table. Ondine Lady at 3-1 offers secondary value with proven ability at the distance under trainer Richard L. Morden.
Secondary Choices: Quiet Maddelena brings veteran experience under Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, while Shamra could provide tactical speed from mid-pack.
Pace Analysis: The short sprint should produce honest early fractions with Love You Lippy likely to press from the start.
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs, Synthetic)
Key Contenders: Conn Smythe (GB) enters as the 2-1 favorite bringing European breeding to North American racing. Livininthefastlane at 2.50-1 offers solid value under trainer Devon Gittens’ guidance. Switzler Jammin completes the top tier at 3-1.
Secondary Choices: Switchin’ to Glide could provide mid-range value at 6-1, while Silent Knight carries apprentice weight that could prove beneficial.
Pace Analysis: The maiden field should develop moderate pace, allowing tactical types to position effectively for the stretch drive.
Jockey Analysis
Rafael Hernandez leads the Woodbine standings with 134 wins from 636 mounts, posting a solid 21% win rate and $6.2 million in earnings. The Puerto Rican rider brings championship-level experience, having won the 2015 Queen’s Plate aboard Shaman Ghost. His recent five-win week demonstrates current form that bettors should respect.
Pietro Moran continues his outstanding apprentice campaign, ranking second in wins with strong recent form. The young jockey’s tactical abilities have improved significantly, making him dangerous on any mount receiving weight allowances. His partnership with the Attard training operation has produced consistent results.
Fraser Aebly brings veteran experience and strong synthetic surface credentials, particularly effective on longer-distance races where his patient tactics prove advantageous.
Trainer Insights
Tino Attard’s operation shows consistent quality with a 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage. The veteran trainer’s 794 career wins demonstrate sustained excellence, particularly with claiming horses stepping up in class.
Michael J. Doyle has shown recent improvement with maiden claiming runners, while trainer Nathan Squires brings fresh horses with tactical speed. Josie Carroll’s stable maintains solid form with allowance-level runners.
Wagering Strategy
Best Bet of the Day: Silver Raleigh in Race 2 offers the strongest combination of class, form, and jockey/trainer partnership.
Longshot Special: Three Sonny Sideup in Race 4 provides exceptional value at projected 8-1 odds.
Multi-Race Opportunities: Consider the Pick 4 covering Races 4-7 using Three Sonny Sideup, Crucial Taunt, Love You Lippy, and Conn Smythe (GB) as primary selections.
Exacta Plays: Race 5 exacta using Crucial Taunt over Groot and Secret Threat offers solid value potential given the projected pace setup.
