Keeneland April 13, 2025 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | April 16, 2025, 12:22 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

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Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Twirling Ridge (8/1)
Place:2 - Ohoopee (7/2)
Show:3 - Baytown Wonder (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Mr. Vaggio (9/2), 5 - Talmadge (20/1), 6 - Il Sorpasso (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:9 - Captain Fancy (12/1)
Place:3 - Skyler (20/1)
Show:4 - How'Ya Getting On (30/1)
Other contenders:7 - Aerate (10/1), 2 - Lean Music Machine (8/5), 10 - Memphis Slim (15/1), 8 - Heavy Hitter (6/1)
 
Race 3
Win:8 - Global Prosperity (20/1)
Place:6 - Hard Circle (12/1)
Show:1 - Borrowed Time (20/1)
Other contenders:11 - World Beater (10/1), 9 - Dublin'S Knight (9/5), 12 - Plensa (6/1), 10 - Salamis (4/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Top Gunner (4/5)
Place:5 - Roll On Big Joe (2/1)
Show:1 - Simcoe (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - King Of Gotham (20/1)
Place:2 - Venik (5/1)
Show:3 - Holster (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Spielman (8/1), 5 - Private Reserve (4/1), 6 - Ghost Nation (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Brushfire (10/1)
Place:3 - Lebowski (8/1)
Show:4 - A Bourbon For Toby (15/1)
Other contenders:10 - Executive (3/1), 11 - Money Man (30/1), 2 - Thirteen Colonies (4/1), 7 - Dr. Niko (20/1)
 
Race 7
Win:9 - Pleasant Embrace (9/2)
Place:7 - Miss Enchanted (20/1)
Show:8 - Caumsett (20/1)
Other contenders:5 - Into Champagne (6/1), 3 - Marmalade Skye (20/1), 4 - Lotsandlotsofcandy (3/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Future Is Now (9/5)
Place:2 - Toupie (7/2)
Show:1 - B G Warrior (20/1)
Other contenders:8 - Accomplished Girl (20/1), 5 - Awesome Treat (30/1), 6 - Danse Macabre (8/1)
 
Race 9
Win:5 - Hotline Blink (15/1)
Place:1 - Livehappy (15/1)
Show:6 - Soco And Lime (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Desert Aire (20/1), 8 - Big Salt Lick (5/1), 9 - Hen Hen (15/1), 10 - Storm The Streets (8/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Twirling Ridge (8/1)
Place:2 - Ohoopee (7/2)
Show:3 - Baytown Wonder (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Mr. Vaggio (9/2), 5 - Talmadge (20/1), 6 - Il Sorpasso (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:3 - Skyler (20/1)
Place:9 - Captain Fancy (12/1)
Show:2 - Lean Music Machine (8/5)
Other contenders:4 - How'Ya Getting On (30/1), 7 - Aerate (10/1), 10 - Memphis Slim (15/1), 8 - Heavy Hitter (6/1)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Hard Circle (12/1)
Place:8 - Global Prosperity (20/1)
Show:1 - Borrowed Time (20/1)
Other contenders:11 - World Beater (10/1), 9 - Dublin'S Knight (9/5), 12 - Plensa (6/1), 10 - Salamis (4/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Top Gunner (4/5)
Place:5 - Roll On Big Joe (2/1)
Show:1 - Simcoe (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - King Of Gotham (20/1)
Place:2 - Venik (5/1)
Show:3 - Holster (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Spielman (8/1), 5 - Private Reserve (4/1), 6 - Ghost Nation (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Brushfire (10/1)
Place:3 - Lebowski (8/1)
Show:4 - A Bourbon For Toby (15/1)
Other contenders:10 - Executive (3/1), 11 - Money Man (30/1), 2 - Thirteen Colonies (4/1), 7 - Dr. Niko (20/1)
 
Race 7
Win:9 - Pleasant Embrace (9/2)
Place:7 - Miss Enchanted (20/1)
Show:5 - Into Champagne (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Impel (9/5), 4 - Lotsandlotsofcandy (3/1), 8 - Caumsett (20/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Future Is Now (9/5)
Place:2 - Toupie (7/2)
Show:1 - B G Warrior (20/1)
Other contenders:8 - Accomplished Girl (20/1), 5 - Awesome Treat (30/1), 6 - Danse Macabre (8/1)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Livehappy (15/1)
Place:5 - Hotline Blink (15/1)
Show:3 - Desert Aire (20/1)
Other contenders:6 - Soco And Lime (20/1), 8 - Big Salt Lick (5/1), 10 - Storm The Streets (8/1), 9 - Hen Hen (15/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Twirling Ridge (8/1)
Place:2 - Ohoopee (7/2)
Show:3 - Baytown Wonder (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Mr. Vaggio (9/2), 5 - Talmadge (20/1), 6 - Il Sorpasso (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:3 - Skyler (20/1)
Place:9 - Captain Fancy (12/1)
Show:2 - Lean Music Machine (8/5)
Other contenders:4 - How'Ya Getting On (30/1), 7 - Aerate (10/1), 8 - Heavy Hitter (6/1), 10 - Memphis Slim (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Hard Circle (12/1)
Place:8 - Global Prosperity (20/1)
Show:1 - Borrowed Time (20/1)
Other contenders:11 - World Beater (10/1), 9 - Dublin'S Knight (9/5), 12 - Plensa (6/1), 10 - Salamis (4/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Top Gunner (4/5)
Place:5 - Roll On Big Joe (2/1)
Show:1 - Simcoe (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - King Of Gotham (20/1)
Place:2 - Venik (5/1)
Show:3 - Holster (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Spielman (8/1), 5 - Private Reserve (4/1), 6 - Ghost Nation (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Brushfire (10/1)
Place:4 - A Bourbon For Toby (15/1)
Show:3 - Lebowski (8/1)
Other contenders:10 - Executive (3/1), 11 - Money Man (30/1), 2 - Thirteen Colonies (4/1), 7 - Dr. Niko (20/1)
 
Race 7
Win:9 - Pleasant Embrace (9/2)
Place:7 - Miss Enchanted (20/1)
Show:1 - Impel (9/5)
Other contenders:5 - Into Champagne (6/1), 4 - Lotsandlotsofcandy (3/1), 8 - Caumsett (20/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Future Is Now (9/5)
Place:7 - Pandora'S Gift (6/1)
Show:8 - Accomplished Girl (20/1)
Other contenders:1 - B G Warrior (20/1), 2 - Toupie (7/2), 5 - Awesome Treat (30/1)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Livehappy (15/1)
Place:5 - Hotline Blink (15/1)
Show:8 - Big Salt Lick (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Desert Aire (20/1), 6 - Soco And Lime (20/1), 10 - Storm The Streets (8/1), 9 - Hen Hen (15/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

A BOURBON FOR TOBYACCOMPLISHED GIRLAERATEANEWAWESOME TREAT
BAYTOWN TRIOBLOIDIBAYTOWN WONDERBECK'S SPIRITBEECHMONTBET ON BRET
BIG SALT LICKBORROWED TIMEBOURBON STREET BOYBRUSHFIRECAPTAIN FANCY
DANSE MACABREDESERT AIREDIBLASIDR. NIKODUBLIN'S KNIGHT
EL MAGNIFICOESMARKEXECUTIVEFUTURE IS NOWGET TWISTED
GLOBAL PROSPERITYHARD CIRCLEHEAVY HITTERHEN HENHOLSTER
HOW'YA GETTING ONIL SORPASSOIMPELINTO CHAMPAGNEJACK RABBIT
KING OF GOTHAMLEAN MUSIC MACHINELEBOWSKILITHE SPIRITLIVEHAPPY
MARAVICHMARMALADE SKYEMEMPHIS SLIMMIGHTY MIKEMISS ENCHANTED
MOON CHANNELMR. VAGGIONAME ITNOMOLIMBONOVA RAGS
OTTO THE CONQUERORPANDORA'S GIFTPARADE OF FEARSPAYNT YA LATERPLEASANT EMBRACE
PRIVATE RESERVEPROUDLY HAILEDRAISING KANEROCK ITROLL ON BIG JOE
SALAMISSECURED LENDERSIMCOESING A LITTLE SONGSKYLER
SPEEDINISPIELMANSTORM THE STREETSSTORMPROOFTALMADGE
TOP GUNNERTOUPIETWIRLING RIDGEVENIKWORLD BEATER