FORM REVERSAL VALUE

Fires when the speed figure 2 races back is above the career average, is within 2 points of the best recent figure, the drop to last race is between 5 and 12 points, and the last-race figure is below the career average. A modest, single-race dip after a career-best or near-career-best effort is often an artifact of pace scenario, trip trouble, or off conditions rather than a real decline. The market prices these horses as if the dip were permanent, creating value for handicappers who recognize the reversal setup.