PACE COLLAPSE VICTIM

Requires an E or EP run style, a last-race E1 pace figure at least 4 points above the horse's personal E1 average, and a last-race finish of 4th or worse. This is a pace-context excuse angle. When an early horse is forced into fractions that are substantially faster than its normal pace — due to a contentious pace duel or a fast-breaking rival — it burns energy that it would otherwise have saved for the stretch. If today's projected pace is softer, this horse should run a materially better race.