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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.

Race #1 Maiden, 5.0F, Dirt, Purse 35000​
Win: 2 Blackjack Mary 100%🥈
Place: 5 Sayyoulovemebaby 67%
Show: 4 Seeking Hope 50%🥉
Alternative: 1 Opaque 50%

Race notes: The consensus leans heavily to the proven speed angle on the cutback sprint profile, with the main saver emphasizing a rail-tripping late piece underneath. Pace pressure appears concentrated among the top two selections, which can amplify exacta leverage if the third choice sits the right stalking trip.​

Race #2 Allowance, 5.0F, Dirt, Purse 37000
Win: 4 Our Keepsake 100%🥈
Place: 2 Beautiful Mischief 67%
Show: 1 Moon Mist 33%🥇
Alternative: 5 Black Ginger 33%🥉

Race notes: The top selection is repeatedly forecast as the most likely winner, while the underneath structure is more sensitive to pace flow and who wins the first 100 yards. If the favorite clears without real pressure, the exacta can collapse into chalk; if contested early, the third and fourth consensus slots become more live.

Race #3 Maiden Special Weight, 7.5F, Dirt, Purse not listed BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 9 Dr. Dean 67%🥉
Place: 2 Mogumbeaux 50%🥇
Show: 1 Unlawful 50%🥈
Alternative: 8 Minimus Maximus 50%

Race notes: This race profiles as a “known quantity vs. upside” decision: the favorite is respected, but multiple forecasts keep a first-time starter and another developing type in the top three. Any late changes around 7 Gary P should be monitored because it can shift pace-and-trip expectations.​

Race #4 Claiming, Dirt, Purse not listed WIN
Win: 5 Sittin On Go 75%🥇
Place: 4 Bayou Jam 67%
Show: 3 Mobster Gun 67%🥉
Alternative: 7 Moro Mafia 67%

Race notes: The consensus shows strong agreement on the top four, but meaningful disagreement on the exact order behind the win slot. That disagreement supports playing combinations rather than a single narrow straight exacta, especially if the second choice drifts up.​

Race #5 Dirt, Purse not listed
Win: 4 Severus Squall 100%🥈
Place: 1 Swamp Pop 50%
Show: 3 He’s a Real Outfit 50%
Alternative: 2 Legendary Dream 50%

Race notes: The top pick is the one true anchor across published forecasts, while the rest of the ticket is where pools can be exploited. Underneath positions skew to mid-price types rather than a second short favorite, a useful setup for trifecta value.​

Race #6 Dirt, Purse not listed
Win: 7 Custom Punch 100%
Place: not listed
Show: not listed
Alternative: not listed

Race notes: Published consensus is clear on the top selection but insufficiently consistent on the remainder to present a responsible ordered 2-4 forecast from verified mapped entries.​

Race #7 Dirt, Purse not listed WIN
Win: 2 Cool Lucky Lady 67%🥇
Place: 9 Pasila 50%🥈
Show: 8 Raise The Alarm 50%
Alternative: 5 Eve of Eve 50%

Race notes: The consensus is split between a “form-and-position” type and a “late-kick” type; that split often produces fair odds on whichever becomes the second choice. The presence of 4 Radiant Rebel as an alternate adds to the “spread in verticals” case rather than over-committing to a single exacta.​

Race #8 Rosewater S., Dirt, Purse not listed​ WIN
Win: 5 Mo for Us 67%🥇
Place: 4 La Nina Dorada 67%
Show: 2 Blessed Assurance 33%🥈
Alternative: 9 Saved by Grace 33%

Race notes: Two different forecast philosophies collide: one centers on the likely favorite, while another points to a pace-pressing alternative as the most likely upset. Because entrants include proven stakes-caliber types on the date, small changes in pace can swing the outcome more than usual.​

Race #9 Dirt, Purse not listed
Win: 8 Summertime Peppers 67%
Place: 4 Sarah’s Vision 67%🥉
Show: 5 Strong Eagle 67%
Alternative: 10 Scallywag 50%

Race notes: This is the strongest “agreement race” late on the card behind the top choice, which can compress horizontal value unless the fourth slot turns up at a price. The alternate slot is where the best leverage typically sits if the public over-focuses on the top three.​

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race #1: Exacta key 2 over 5 and 4; smaller saver exacta 2 over 1. Trifecta structure 2 over 5 and 4 over 5, 4, 1 (no repeats).

Race #2: Exacta key 4 over 2 and 5; saver exacta 4 over 1 if the pace looks hotter than expected. Trifecta structure 4 over 2 and 5 over 2, 5, 1 (no repeats).

Race #3: Because opinions split on the “win vs. upside,” exacta box 9 and 2 is preferred over a single-order exacta; add 1 in trifectas as the consistent underneath piece. Trifecta structure 9 and 2 over 9, 2, 1 over 8 and 1 (no repeats).

Race #4: Exacta box 5 and 4 with a press on 5 over 4 if price allows. Trifecta structure 5 and 4 over 5, 4, 3 over 7 and 3 (no repeats).

Race #5: Exacta 4 over 1 and 3; small reverse saver 1 over 4 only if 1 floats to value. Trifecta structure 4 over 1, 3, 2 over 1, 3, 2 (no repeats).

Race #6: With only the top selection strongly confirmed across sources, consider limiting exposure to win/place on 7 rather than forcing thin vertical opinions.

Race #7: Trifecta structure 2 and 9 over 2, 9, 8 over 5 and 8 (no repeats). If odds permit, exacta box 2 and 9 provides protection against a pace/script flip.

Race #8: Exacta box 5 and 4; add 2 and 9 underneath in trifectas. Trifecta structure 5 and 4 over 5, 4, 2 over 9, 2, 8 (no repeats).

Race #9: Exacta 8 over 4 and 5; consider trifecta 8 over 4 and 5 over 10 and 4 (no repeats), emphasizing 10 as the leverage leg.

Value Play Observations

Race #1: The win slot looks “consensus obvious,” so value is more likely created by demanding a price on the third and fourth slots in trifectas rather than searching for a contrarian win upset.​

Race #2: If the public over-commits to the 4-2 exacta, including 1 or 5 as the third-slot differentiator can improve trifecta value without taking a reckless stance against the most likely winner.

Race #3: Mixed forecasts create natural value: when one group leans to a proven favorite and another leans to debut/upsiders, exacta boxes and small trifecta spreads tend to outperform narrow straight tickets.​

Race #4: The top four are repeatedly cited, but the internal ordering differs; that disagreement is exactly where superfecta and trifecta value is typically found.​

Race #8: Stakes context can inflate favorite support; leaning on the 4 as a co-equal win threat (instead of only an underneath horse) is the cleanest way to express value without going off-grid.​

Race #9: The top three are heavily consensus-aligned, so the best return is usually driven by getting the fourth slot right at a number, or by playing horizontals that fade a short-priced “obvious” second choice.​