Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: INCURSION (5) – 44% confidence
Place: SUNCROFT (4) – 33% confidence
Show: CREW DRAGON (9) – 22% confidence
Alternative: WACO (6) – 11% confidence
The consensus favors the class dropper here, noting strong past performances and a valid excuse for the distant third in the last outing. The winner has strong backing to close late. The runner-up choice is seen as consistent but potentially vulnerable in the final furlong.
Race 2 – Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt
Win: WARTIME HERO (6) – 62% confidence
Place: WINTER’S GHOST (9) – 25% confidence
Show: RED MOUNTAIN (8) – 25% confidence
Alternative: KHOZY MY BOY (12) – 25% confidence
A strong consensus has formed around the favorite, citing a solid run of form with three wins and three seconds in the last six starts. However, some dissenters point to a weaker record specifically at Oaklawn compared to other tracks.
Race 3 – Starter Allowance – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: MISINFORMATION (4) – 62% confidence
Place: TREADSTONE (5) – 12% confidence
Show: OPUS UNO (6) – 25% confidence
Alternative: HORSE OF THE SEA (9) – 12% confidence
Analysts overwhelmingly support the favorite due to a significant class drop and strong figures in recent allowance company. The consensus view is that this runner is superior to the field in this protected spot.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: SANDMAN (1) – 33% confidence
Place: SIR GREYLIND (9) – 11% confidence
Show: WINNEMAC AVENUE (4) – 22% confidence
Alternative: ECHO AGAIN (7) – 11% confidence
This is a high-contention race. While the morning line favorite has backing based on class, several analysts are betting against them due to potential trip issues and lack of pace pressure. A significant faction believes the outside runners offer better value.
Race 5 – Allowance – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: OVERCOME ADVERSITY (2) – 50% confidence
Place: GOWELLS DELIGHT (7) – 12% confidence
Show: KERRY’S KISS (3) – 25% confidence
Alternative: GIN’S BEACH ROAD (4) – 12% confidence
The consensus aligns with the inside runner who has shown strong form and consistency. The favorite is seen as the most reliable, but exotic coverage is recommended for the minor awards as opinions split on the placings.
Race 6 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: WHAT’S HER NUMBER (12) – 37% confidence
Place: ANTE UP TONY (7) – 12% confidence
Show: RAGTIME SIZZLE (5) – 12% confidence
Alternative: FLAT STORMIN (6) – 12% confidence
Opinion is fractured here. The slight favorite is backed due to a “claim waiver” angle and improved works, suggesting a peak effort is incoming. However, several analysts see value in the recent maiden winners stepping up.
Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: SAVED (11) – 25% confidence
Place: BOTE (14) – 25% confidence
Show: TIME ANDBEYOND (1) – 25% confidence
Alternative: GIANT MOON (7) – 25% confidence
This is the most open race on the card with no clear consensus. Picks are scattered across the board, with analysts making cases for class droppers, recent winners, and horses returning from layoffs.
Race 8 – Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: DETERMINEDLY (3) – 50% confidence
Place: YELLOW BRICK (7) – 25% confidence
Show: HERO’S MEDAL (1) – 25% confidence
Alternative: BUCKEYE FAVORITE (8) – 12% confidence
A solid consensus has formed around the favorite dropping in class, with analysts noting that the barn is currently on fire. The primary danger is seen as the consistent runner who frequently hits the board.
Race 9 – Bayakoa Stakes (Grade 3) – 1 1/16 Miles – Dirt
Win: NITROGEN (7) – 87% confidence
Place: NERAZURRI (1) – 50% confidence
Show: MISS AUTHENTIC (5) – 37% confidence
Alternative: QUIETSIDE (4) – 25% confidence
This is the strongest consensus of the day. The Grade 1 winner returning from the Breeders’ Cup is viewed as being in a different class than this field. Most analysts view the favorite as a “single” in multi-race wagers.
Race 10 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: DREAMINBLUE (11) – 25% confidence
Place: SURVEILLANCE (13) – 25% confidence
Show: LUNAR MODULE (6) – 12% confidence
Alternative: SECOND I D (1) – 12% confidence
This race is chaotic due to the Also-Eligible list. Several analysts prefer the AE runner if they draw in; otherwise, support shifts to the outside runners. This is a split-decision race where recent form at the specific distance is the dividing line.
Race 11 – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: BUCKEYE FAVORITE (8) – 37% confidence
Place: JUSTICE ADDITION (6) – 12% confidence
Show: DIVINE CELINA (2) – 37% confidence
Alternative: ENGAGEMENT (5) – 12% confidence
The card concludes with a split decision. The morning line favorite has support based on speed figures, but many analysts are pivoting to the mid-pack runners who have shown consistency.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: The consensus favorite INCURSION (5) is a strong key for the top of Exactas and Trifectas. Consider boxing SUNCROFT (4) and CREW DRAGON (9) underneath.
Race 2: WARTIME HERO (6) is a reliable anchor. A straight Exacta of 6 over 9 is the high-probability play. For Trifectas, key 6 over 8, 9, 12.
Race 3: MISINFORMATION (4) is a “single” candidate. Use as a key in the first position of all exotics. Plays should focus on finding the place horse, with TREADSTONE (5) and OPUS UNO (6) being the most logical fillers.
Race 4: This is a spread race. An Exacta Box of SANDMAN (1), SIR GREYLIND (9), and WINNEMAC AVENUE (4) covers the volatility. The potential for a price exists with ECHO AGAIN (7).
Race 5: OVERCOME ADVERSITY (2) is the key. Play Trifectas wheeling 2 with 7, 3, 4. The 7 offers decent value underneath if the favorite falters.
Race 6: Go deep here. A Superfecta Box is recommended using WHAT’S HER NUMBER (12), ANTE UP TONY (7), RAGTIME SIZZLE (5), and FLAT STORMIN (6).
Race 7: Proceed with caution. Small unit Pick 3s should use “All” or deep coverage here. For verticals, box high-odds runners SAVED (11) and BOTE (14) with GIANT MOON (7).
Race 8: Key DETERMINEDLY (3) in the Win position. Play Exactas 3 over 1, 7. Reverse the order on a smaller ticket to cover the upset by HERO’S MEDAL (1).
Race 9: NITROGEN (7) is the standout single. To extract value, play straight Trifectas: 7 over 1 over All, or 7 over 5 over All.
Race 10: If SURVEILLANCE (13) draws in, key them. If not, box DREAMINBLUE (11), LUNAR MODULE (6), and SECOND I D (1) in Exactas.
Race 11: Finish with an Exacta Box of BUCKEYE FAVORITE (8) and JUSTICE ADDITION (6). Saver tickets should include DIVINE CELINA (2) in the show position.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: FRACK BABY (1) is ignored by most but picked to win by one sharp source; potentially overlaid significantly if they hit the board.
Race 2: WINTER’S GHOST (9) is a clear second choice but may drift up in odds due to the heavy favoritism of the top choice.
Race 4: ECHO AGAIN (7) is identified as a “bomb” potential. The pace scenario suggests they could get the jump on the closers, offering massive value compared to their probability.
Race 6: RAGTIME SIZZLE (5) appears frequently in the lower rungs of picks (Place/Show) but has high-odds potential to crash the Superfecta.
Race 8: HERO’S MEDAL (1) is selected as a win candidate by contrarians betting against the heavy favorite. If the favorite is overbet, this is the value alternative.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races The clearest opportunities on the card lie in Race 3 (MISINFORMATION) and Race 9 (NITROGEN). Both runners command over 60-80% confidence from the analytical field. Nitrogen in the Bayakoa Stakes is the premier “single” of the day, with analysts citing her Grade 1 class relief as a decisive factor. Misinformation in Race 3 is similarly dominant, benefiting from a protected spot that appears tailor-made for a confidence-boosting win. Bettors should use these two runners as the foundational “free squares” in horizontal wagers (Pick 3/4/5).
Split-Opinion Races Race 4 and Race 7 present the highest volatility. In Race 4, the tension lies between the class of Sandman and the unfavorable pace setup that could benefit Sir Greylind or Echo Again. This is a race to spread deep or play an upset strategy. Race 7 is wide open with no clear favorite; the data suggests avoiding short-priced runners here and instead boxing mid-range odds horses (8-1 to 12-1) who have equal probability in a chaotic field.
Multi-Race Sequences A Late Pick 4 (Races 8-11) offers a structured path to profit. Anchor the ticket with Nitrogen in Race 9. In Race 8, Determinedly is a strong A-side, but backing up with Hero’s Medal provides insurance. Race 10 requires deep coverage due to the also-eligible uncertainty—use the “All” button or go at least 4-deep if the budget permits. Close out in Race 11 by narrowing the field to Buckeye Favorite and Justice Addition.
Exotic Value Opportunities Race 6 provides a prime setup for high-paying vertical exotics. The favorite is vulnerable, and the secondary contenders (Ragtime Sizzle, Red Volta) are priced as longshots despite having legitimate winning cases. A Superfecta keying the top choice over a broad spread of price horses could yield a disproportionate payout relative to the wager cost.
Environmental Factors Notes indicate a potential for an “outside flow” track bias, where horses in outer lanes or outside posts (like those in Race 5 and Race 10) may perform above expectations. Be wary of rail runners in routes if the track is playing slow on the inside.
