Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Fair Grounds – Racing News and Analysis for February 12, 2026


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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Welcome to Fair Grounds for a Thursday afternoon card featuring nine races. The program includes a mix of claiming sprints on the dirt and route races on the turf, highlighted by a competitive allowance contest in the eighth race. The card offers several opportunities for value, particularly in the maiden claiming events where field sizes are robust. Horseplayers should note the rail placement on the turf course, which is set at 28 feet, potentially tightening the turns and favoring horses with tactical speed who can save ground. The claiming ranks today are filled with veterans, making current form and trainer intent critical factors in handicapping these events.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for New Orleans today calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 62 degrees. Humidity is expected to be moderate. Given the recent weather patterns in the region, we expect the main track to be listed as Fast. The turf course, with the rail out at 28 feet, should be Firm. The portable rail setting often protects the inner part of the course, but at this setting, it can sometimes favor speed horses who can get to the front and control the pace.

Track and Post Position Bias

On the main dirt track at six furlongs, inside posts have traditionally performed well, but the rail itself can sometimes be deep. Watch the early races to see if horses are winning from the rail or if they are staying two to three paths off. Speed is generally an asset on this surface. For the turf routes at one mile and one-sixteenth miles with the rail at 28 feet, inside draws are advantageous. Horses starting from the far outside posts in large fields often face a significant disadvantage going into the first turn. A ground-saving trip is essential today.

Race 1

Post Time

12:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

In this six-furlong sprint for claiming non-winners of three, the pace looks to be moderate. Tap the Tequila breaking from the rail has shown flashes of early foot and will likely be sent to secure position. Hawija also possesses tactical speed and should be sitting close to the pace.

Key Contenders

Hawija (2) looks to be the horse to beat in the opener. Trained by W. Bret Calhoun, this four-year-old gelding drops into a conditioned claiming spot that fits his class level perfectly. Tap The Tequila (1) is a logical threat from the inside post. Trainer Scott Gelner has him spotted aggressively.

Secondary Choices

Crigler (3), ridden by Paco Lopez, adds a significant jockey upgrade. Lopez is known for his aggressive gate riding, which could put Crigler into the mix earlier than expected.

Longshots

Josan (4) is a seven-year-old veteran who has seen better days, but in a field of non-winners of three, experience counts.

Race 2

Post Time

01:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This claiming sprint for fillies and mares features more early speed than the first race. Slushy and Chaparrita both like to be forwardly placed. Zoom Erin also has early foot. This sets up well for a stalker.

Key Contenders

Chaparrita (8) is a strong contender for the win. Coming out of the Jervon Broussard barn with Sofia Vives aboard, this mare has the speed to clear the field. Slushy (5) draws the services of Isaac Castillo and trainer Tanner Tracy. This seven-year-old mare is consistent and rarely runs a bad race.

Secondary Choices

Zoom Erin (4) is the other Broussard runner in the field, ridden by Paco Lopez. Having two horses from the same barn often provides options, and Lopez's presence suggests this one is live.

Longshots

All About Me (1) breaks from the rail. If the speed horses get caught in a duel, she could sneak up the rail for a share of the purse.

Race 3

Post Time

01:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Sir Liam and Sir Pistolero are the primary speed influences in this claiming event. Sir Liam, from the Calhoun barn, will likely try to control the race from the start. Highstakes Hustler may also show interest early.

Key Contenders

Sir Liam (4) is the class of the field. W. Bret Calhoun drops him into a winnable spot, and Colby Hernandez takes the mount. Sir Pistolero (6) is the main danger. Isaac Castillo rides for Tanner Tracy. This gelding has been knocking on the door.

Secondary Choices

Our Pact (7) has been inconsistent but shows flashes of ability. With Paco Lopez aboard, expect a more aggressive ride today.

Longshots

Dr. Niko (8) is a four-year-old who could improve in this spot. At likely double-digit odds, he is worth including in the bottom of exotics.

Race 4

Post Time

02:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This maiden claiming turf mile features several young horses stretching out. Skip Forward and Haulin Oats look to be the ones who will establish position early. With the rail out, expect the pace to be slow to moderate.

Key Contenders

Skip Forward (JPN) (6) is an intriguing entry from the Joe Sharp barn. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, which is a high-percentage move. Matching Funds (3), trained by Chris Block with Jareth Loveberry riding, is another major player.

Secondary Choices

Haulin Oats (4) represents the Brittany Russell barn. Mitchell Murrill rides. This horse has shown steady improvement.

Longshots

Brockton (2) could be a factor at a price. Trained by Keri Brion, a specialist in turf racing, this horse might take a big step forward on the grass.

Race 5

Post Time

02:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Clearly Majestic and Custom Ride look to be the speed in this Louisiana-bred claiming sprint. It is a small field, so the start is crucial.

Key Contenders

Clearly Majestic (1) is the one to catch. Paco Lopez riding for Shane Wilson is a deadly combination. Custom Ride (2) is the logical alternative. He carries top weight but has the form to handle it.

Secondary Choices

Yorktown Panther (5) could pick up the pieces if the top two engage in a suicide pace. Ben Curtis is a strong finishing rider.

Longshots

Deal Of Faith (8) has outside speed potential but will need a career-best effort to upset the top pair.

Race 6

Post Time

03:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

In this maiden optional claiming turf route, Syntagma and Prince of Light are expected to attract the most money. The pace should be honest as several of these young horses have sprint speed in their pedigrees.

Key Contenders

Syntagma (6) is a strong contender. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr., this horse has been working well. Prince Of Light (1) runs for Brendan Walsh with Jose Ortiz. This is a dangerous combination.

Secondary Choices

Starmetal (4), trained by Neil Pessin, is a sneaky contender. Pessin often pops with turf horses at nice prices.

Longshots

Ogilvy (IRE) (7) adds international flavor. Trained by Whitworth Beckman, this import could be anything.

Race 7

Post Time

03:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

A maiden claiming sprint with a full field. Key Man and Emancipation should vie for the early lead. The pace will be fast, setting it up for a closer.

Key Contenders

King Of The Isles (IRE) (8) is a fascinating entry for Kenny McPeek. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides. The drop into maiden claiming suggests the connections want a win. Emancipation (1) runs for Wayne Catalano and Jose Ortiz.

Secondary Choices

Brock's Boy (5) fits on speed figures if healthy. Paco Lopez riding is a plus.

Longshots

Standard Deduction (6) could be running late. Jareth Loveberry is great at timing rides on closers.

Race 8

Post Time

04:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The feature race is an allowance on the turf. Contribution and Drilling for Gold should be forwardly placed. Unleash the Power has a strong closing kick.

Key Contenders

Contribution (2) is the top selection. Brad Cox and Jose Ortiz team up again. This four-year-old has significant upside. Drilling For Gold (10) is consistent and tough. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides for Brittany Russell.

Secondary Choices

Unleash The Power (6) is a veteran who knows how to win. Al Stall Jr. has him ready, and he will be flying late.

Longshots

Faber (8), with Paco Lopez, could steal it if allowed to set a slow pace alone on the front end.

Race 9

Post Time

04:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a claiming mile on the dirt. Grand Encore and Sir Mack have speed. Ashes in the Ocean will be stalking.

Key Contenders

Grand Encore (4) looks best here. Paco Lopez rides for Sherman Savoie. He should be able to clear the field. Ashes In The Ocean (3) is the main threat. Colby Hernandez rides.

Secondary Choices

Sir Mack (1) is a consistent check-earner. He should hit the board.

Longshots

Name The Time (7) could improve with C.J. McMahon aboard.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Paco Lopez has a loaded book today. He is riding live mounts in almost every race, including Crigler, Zoom Erin, Clearly Majestic, and Grand Encore. His aggressive style plays well on the Fair Grounds dirt. Jose Ortiz is also well-mounted, particularly on the turf with Skip Forward, Prince of Light, and Contribution. When Ortiz and Cox team up, it is a high-percentage angle.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad Cox sends out two heavy hitters in Syntagma and Contribution. Both look ready to win. W. Bret Calhoun has his stable ready for the early races with Hawija and Sir Liam. Brittany Russell ships in with contenders in Haulin Oats and Drilling for Gold, signaling she means business. Watch for the barn of Shane Wilson in the 5th race; Clearly Majestic looks like a targeted drop.

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