Nearly a year after completing a flawless championship season, Ted Noffey returns Saturday as the 8-5 favorite in Belmont Park's $200,000 Dwyer. The Listed one-mile stakes, carded as Race 8 with an 11:40 a.m. Eastern first post, is the first serious test for Spendthrift Farm's champion since bone bruising interrupted his path toward the 2026 Kentucky Derby. NYRA's advance confirms the Into Mischief colt will break from post six with John Velazquez, who has been aboard for all four of his victories.
Ted Noffey's résumé gives him the class edge. He went 4-for-4 at two, winning the Grade 1 Hopeful, Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a Saratoga debut victory. The Del Mar score on Oct. 31, 2025, secured his champion juvenile title and made him an obvious early Derby favorite before the late-January announcement that he would miss the spring campaign. He was purchased for $650,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and is bred to handle Saturday's distance, being out of dual graded stakes-placed mare Streak of Luck.
The central handicapping question is fitness, not talent. Ted Noffey returned to the work tab at Saratoga in August and moved to Belmont in mid-October. His most recent published drill was a half-mile in 48.42 seconds on the Belmont dirt training track, where he worked alongside stakes winner Tuscan Sky. Assistant trainer Stu Hampson said the colt has disposed of his workmates and produced strong gallop-outs, while cautioning that the afternoon race will provide the real answer. “We've got him as fit as we can get him without running him,” Hampson told NYRA.
There is no soft landing in the Dwyer. Sea Strike, drawn outside in post nine, owns the field's top published Beyer Speed Figure, a 102 earned in an 8 1/4-length victory in the Listed Curlin at Saratoga. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, whose previous Dwyer winners include Practical Joke and Domestic Product. Sea Strike's sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Travers is easier to forgive than it first appears, but he must rebound while cutting back from 1 1/4 miles to a one-turn mile.
Igniter brings another credible alternative for bettors. The Rick Dutrow trainee won the Listed Ellis Park Derby at a mile before finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, and he owns an earlier mile victory at Belmont at the Big A. Stop the Car, meanwhile, could benefit from the race shape: Brendan Walsh believes the Maximum Security colt is best when allowed to settle behind a fast pace and specifically prefers a one-turn mile. Stimulate, Bravaro and Mailata add stakes experience to a field that should force Ted Noffey to produce immediately rather than use the Dwyer merely as a public workout.
Pletcher has won this race three times, with Strong Hope in 2003, Any Given Saturday in 2007 and Charge It in 2022. That history, Velazquez's continuity and the colt's steady preparation make Ted Noffey the logical favorite. Still, a one-year absence is a substantial variable, and his short price leaves little room for rust. The most revealing result may not be simply whether he wins, but whether he finishes with the powerful late energy that marked last year's champion.