Current Meet Leaders & Hot Connections
Jockey Colony Update
Ben Curtis continues his dominant run at Colonial Downs, leading all riders with 24 wins from 90 starts for an impressive 26.67% win rate. Curtis has been particularly hot over the past two weeks, going 11-for-37, and leads the colony with 6.11 added wins above expectation.
Paco Lopez sits in second place with 17 victories and has been equally effective, posting a 26.56% strike rate. Lopez went 4-for-5 last week and has maintained consistent form with 8 wins in his last 20 mounts.
Sheldon Russell deserves attention as a value play, sitting fourth in wins with 10 victories but leading in added wins among regular riders with 3.50. Jump jockey Graham Watters has been nearly perfect, going 7-for-8 at the meet.
Trainer Trends
Mike Trombetta leads all conditioners with 17 wins from 67 starts, maintaining a solid 25.37% win percentage. Trombetta has exceeded expectations significantly, with 6.67 added wins above what his odds predicted.
Brittany Russell ranks second with 14 victories and a 23.33% strike rate. Both Russell and Trombetta have been the most consistent performers through the first half of the meet.
Jack Fisher presents excellent value despite limited starts, going 5-for-10 for a remarkable 50% win rate.
Race-by-Race Analysis & Selections
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight ($87,500)
Top Pick: #2
Alternatives: #4, #8, #1
This maiden special weight contest should provide a competitive opener. Look for horses making their second or third career starts to show improvement.
Race 2: Maiden Claiming ($40,000)
Top Pick: #3
Alternatives: #4, #6, #2
The maiden claiming ranks often produce surprises. Focus on recent works and any equipment changes that might indicate improvement.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming ($28,000)
Top Pick: #6
Alternatives: #4, #3, #1
The lowest-level maiden event of the card may favor horses with early speed given the shorter distance.
Race 4: Starter Allowance ($55,000)
Top Pick: #5
Alternatives: #6, #1, #3
Starter allowance conditions often favor experienced runners who have shown ability at the claiming level.
Race 5: Allowance
Top Pick: #3
Alternatives: #9, #10, #2
The allowance race should feature some of the day’s most talented horses stepping up in class.
Race 6: $16,000 Non-Winners of Two Turf Sprint
Featured Selection: Morning Miracle (#3) at 3-1 or higher
This race reunites several horses from a July 23rd contest at the same level. Morning Miracle (#3) finished fifth in that race but encountered significant trouble, being forced to chase the pace three-four wide around the turn. She was favored that day and should offer better value here given her disappointing last-out finish.
Diane Lee (#4) will attract support after her troubled trip in the previous encounter, where she had to check mid-stretch while rallying along the rail. However, she had enjoyed a perfect journey until that point.
Parola Sicura (#7) finished third last time with a clean trip and figures to be competitive again.
Secondary Picks: #4, #7, #12
Race 7: Allowance Race
Featured Selection: Class Photo (#8) at 5-1 or higher
The probable favorite Rigel (#5) enters off four consecutive victories but faces questions in a new barn and against other early speed. Tom Hagen (#2) provides pace pressure but may need to be sent early from his inside post, potentially setting up a pace meltdown.
Class Photo (#8) offers excellent value as a pace-stalking type making his third Colonial start. He dominated a $10,000 claiming field on opening day and ran respectably when second to Bodecream at 10 furlongs last time, a distance that may have been beyond his optimal range. The cutback to 8.5 furlongs should suit his style perfectly.
Secondary Picks: #2, #5, #7
Race 8: $10,000 Claiming (Nightcap)
Featured Selection: Solving Progress (#8) at 2-1 or higher
Innana’s Quest (#6) figures to be heavily favored dropping from starter allowance to $10,000 claiming, with the added appeal of a trainer change from Lynn Ashby to Brittany Russell. However, Ashby did excellent work with this mare previously, making the improvement under Russell uncertain despite her strong meet.
Solving Progress (#8) offers superior value dropping slightly from $16,000 to $10,000 claiming. She possesses tactical early speed and should benefit from facing a field with limited pace pressure. Her last effort showed determination when holding fourth after being caught by the field in the stretch. The reunion with jockey Jorge Ruiz, who guided her to her most recent victory, adds appeal.
Secondary Picks: #6, #3, #7
Best Bets of the Day
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Morning Miracle (#3) in Race 6 – Value play with legitimate excuse for poor last-out performance
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Class Photo (#8) in Race 7 – Pace setup should favor his stalking style
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Solving Progress (#8) in Race 8 – Class relief and favorable pace scenario
Late Pick 3 Strategy (Races 6-7-8)
The featured selections in the final three races comprise an attractive Pick 3 sequence. Consider using Morning Miracle (#3) and Diane Lee (#4) in Race 6, Class Photo (#8) and Tom Hagen (#2) in Race 7, and Solving Progress (#8) and Innana’s Quest (#6) in Race 8 for broader coverage.
