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Penn National Race Course in Grantville, Pennsylvania, hosts an eight-race card on Thursday evening, February 26, 2026, with first post at 5:45 PM EST. The card features a mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and allowance races over distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile and 70 yards, all contested on the dirt surface.
The purse structure ranges from $12,000 in the second race to $37,000 in the fourth race, which is the sole allowance event on the card. The Pennsylvania breeding fund bonus (PABF) of up to 40% supplements all purses, making even the lower-level races financially attractive for connections.
The scratch watch flags several horses of note. Showmance (PP 5, Race 1) is flagged for a veterinarian scratch from a January 26 start at Parx Racing and may or may not draw in. Bugged Out (PP 9, Race 3) is flagged for a trainer scratch from a February 26 Laurel Park start. Brother Rice (PP 4, Race 5) carries two scratch flags — a stewards scratch from January 15 at Mahoning Valley and a cancelled race at Parx on February 2. Bettors should monitor pre-race scratch announcements carefully, as the loss of any of these runners will alter the dynamics significantly in their respective races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The National Weather Service forecast for Grantville, Pennsylvania, calls for rain before 2:00 PM Thursday, transitioning to showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2:00 PM. The high temperature is expected near 59 degrees Fahrenheit with east winds around 15 mph and gusts up to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%, with new rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches expected.
Thursday night brings continued showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8:00 PM, then showers likely through the evening. The low temperature will be around 46 degrees with winds gusting to 22 mph.
Given the heavy rainfall forecast, the main track is virtually certain to be listed as sloppy or muddy for the evening card. Recent racing at Penn National confirms this tendency — the February 20-21 cards saw sloppy conditions after moderate precipitation. With 1 to 2 inches of new rain expected before and during racing, handicappers should place a premium on horses with demonstrated wet-track form. Speed horses and front-runners who can handle the kickback tend to gain an advantage on an off track at Penn National, as the slop tends to compound the difficulty of making up ground from behind.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Penn National’s one-mile oval with a relatively short run to the first turn creates a pronounced inside speed bias in sprint races on the main track. The track configuration inherently helps horses who break alertly and secure an early lead or stalking position close to the rail.
In sprint races, post position four has historically been the most productive, accounting for 18.7% of winners. Post position five follows at 17.1%, with post three at over 16%. The inside rail draw at post one has been somewhat disappointing at 11.8%, likely due to the tight first turn causing traffic issues for horses who do not break sharply from the inside.
In route races (one mile and beyond), the results are more evenly distributed. Post five produces 17.2% winners, post seven 16.4%, and posts one through three all exceed 15%. However, the outside posts at 10 and beyond perform poorly in routes — none of the runners drawn in the outside two stalls won during a study period. This is critical for the two route races tonight (Races 1 and 2/6) where inside posts carry a meaningful edge.
On an off track, the rail can sometimes become deeper and heavier, which can negate the normal inside advantage in sprints. Handicappers should watch early race results to determine whether the inside path holds or whether horses are fanning wide to find better footing.
Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $16,000
Post Time: 5:45 PM EST
Six three-year-olds face the starter in this maiden claiming event at the $10,000 tag over one mile on the dirt. This is a low-level maiden race with a thin field, and most of these runners have struggled to find the winner’s circle.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario figures to be modest. Stonecoldhandsome (PP 1) is profiled as the fastest leader in the field and should break on top from the rail. Showmance (PP 5), if he runs, is a fast stalker who showed improvement last out with a third-place finish at Penn National. Nilambar (PP 6) is the slowest stalker and will likely settle in behind the leaders. With only one true frontrunner, expect a relatively slow, uncontested pace that favors early speed types.
Key Contenders
Stonecoldhandsome (PP 1) is the morning line favorite at 8-5 and the most accomplished runner in the field with nine career starts and a record of 0-3-4. While still a maiden, his consistency in hitting the board — a 44% in-the-money rate — is the best in this group. His last three starts produced finishes of third, fourth, and second, all in sprint races at Penn National. The stretch to one mile is a question, but as the fastest leader he should control the tempo on the front end. Jockey Yabriel Ramos is one of Penn National’s leading riders with a 12% win rate and 40% in-the-money rate from 60 recent starts, and trainer Bruce Kravets, while not explosive in win percentage, maintains a steady 10% strike rate with a 39% ITM mark.
Nilambar (PP 6) is listed at 9-5 on the morning line and draws the outside post in a six-horse field. He is trained by Michael Pino, who carries an impressive 31% win rate and 59% ITM from 39 starts — far and away the best trainer stats in this race. Jockey Angel Rodriguez boasts a 27% win rate and 75% ITM at Penn National, making this the most potent jockey-trainer combination in the field. Nilambar has only two career starts, finishing sixth in both at Parx Racing, but the class drop and route distance may suit.
Showmance (PP 5) is listed at 5-2 and improved to a third-place finish last out at Penn National over six furlongs. His fast stalking style should put him in a good position behind the pace. However, he is on the scratch watch for a veterinarian issue, and bettors should confirm his status before wagering. Jockey David Cora has an 18% win rate and 55% ITM.
Secondary Choices
Christ Is King (PP 3) at 12-1 has three starts with nothing to show for them (0-0-0), but his 23% win probability prediction and 95% show probability from the algorithmic model suggest some upside. The Kravets barn sending out two in the race may indicate a preference, and jockey Ricardo Chiappe shows a decent 8% win rate but a strong 48% ITM mark.
My Gemstone (PP 2) at 10-1 is a filly with only one start — a fifth-place finish at Penn National. She receives a five-pound weight break at 117 pounds. Jockey Emilio Flores has been running at an impressive 26% win rate with 58% ITM recently, which could elevate this lightly raced runner.
Longshots
R Parrot Head (PP 4) at 20-1 has shown nothing in three career starts with finishes of 9th, 9th, and 9th. Jockey Matilda Burnham has a dismal 3% win rate and 26% ITM. There is no reason to include this runner in wagers unless the track is a bog and chaos ensues.
Selections
Win: Stonecoldhandsome (PP 1)
Place: Nilambar (PP 6)
Show: Showmance (PP 5)
Betting Strategy: A small field maiden race is not the ideal spot for exotic wagering. A straight win bet on Stonecoldhandsome at 8-5 offers the best value if you trust his consistency. For a bit more upside, box an exacta using Stonecoldhandsome, Nilambar, and Showmance (1-5-6). If Showmance scratches, shift to a straight exacta of 1 over 6 and 6 over 1.
Race 2 — Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $12,000
Post Time: 6:14 PM EST
Seven fillies and mares, three years old and upward, contest this $4,000 claiming event for horses that have not won since August 26. This is the lowest claiming level on the card and features a group of hard-knocking older mares looking for a breakthrough.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup here is intriguing. Kentucky Reign (PP 1) and Hi Heeled Warrior (PP 3) are both profiled as slower leaders, meaning they like to be near the front but do not blaze away from the gate. Penny Polka (PP 4) is a slower leader type as well. Bonita Lassie (PP 5), the morning line favorite at 2-1, is the fastest closer in the field and will be running at her targets from behind. Ghostly Girl (PP 6) and Beyond A Million (PP 7) are both closers. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, which benefits Bonita Lassie’s closing kick.
Key Contenders
Bonita Lassie (PP 5) is the clear morning line favorite at 2-1. She has 43 career starts with 6 wins, 14 seconds, and 19 thirds for a solid 44% ITM rate. She is profiled as the fastest closer in the field and has been working at six furlongs recently at Penn National with fifth-place finishes, now stretching back to a mile plus where she should be more comfortable. Jockey Yabriel Ramos has a modest 4% win rate but a 45% ITM from this barn. Trainer Bruce Kravets has been active and recently saddled a winner on February 21. Her closing style is well suited to an off track where the front runners may tire in the stretch.
Hi Heeled Warrior (PP 3) at 3-1 is the class of the field with a 21% career win rate (8 for 39) and an impressive 49% ITM. Her recent form at Parx shows fifth, third, and third over one mile on the dirt. Jockey Angel Rodriguez has a 27% win rate and 67% ITM at Penn National — the best jockey stats in the race. Trainer Irving Rodriguez shows an 18% win rate and 42% ITM. This is a serious contender who could wire the field if left alone on the lead.
Penny Polka (PP 4) at 4-1 has a 13% win rate from 23 starts with a 39% ITM. Her recent form at Laurel Park has been poor (8th in back-to-back starts), but she drops significantly in class today. Jockey Julio Hernandez has a 20% win rate and 56% ITM — strong numbers that make any mount dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Beachgrass (PP 2) at 9-2 has 53 career starts with a modest 11% win rate but is trained by Jorge Diaz. Jockey Luis Rivera has an 18% win rate and 37% ITM. She profiles as the slowest deep runner and will need a pace meltdown to be effective. Her last outing was a fourth at Parx over a mile.
Ghostly Girl (PP 6) at 6-1, also trained by Diaz, brings a different profile. In her only start over a comparable trip at this combination, she showed a 100% win rate and 100% show rate, though from an extremely small sample of one start. At $522,160 in career earnings from 39 starts, she has the highest earnings in the field and is dropping sharply in class.
Longshots
Beyond A Million (PP 7) at 8-1 offers mild longshot value with a 9% win rate and 41% ITM from 44 career starts. She is a mid-pack stalker who could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
Kentucky Reign (PP 1) at 15-1 has only a 6% win rate from 52 starts. Jockey Manuel Aguilar has a 0% win rate and 14% ITM in recent action. Hard to recommend.
Selections
Win: Hi Heeled Warrior (PP 3)
Place: Bonita Lassie (PP 5)
Show: Ghostly Girl (PP 6)
Betting Strategy: At 3-1, Hi Heeled Warrior offers better value than the even-money Bonita Lassie. Key Hi Heeled Warrior on top of exactas and trifectas. A trifecta box of 3-5-6 provides solid coverage. For the more adventurous, a trifecta key of 3 over 5-6-4-7 in the place and show spots offers broader coverage for a modest investment.
Race 3 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $19,000
Post Time: 6:43 PM EST
Nine fillies and mares line up for this $10,000 claiming sprint. The field is competitive with several legitimate contenders, making this a prime spot for exotic wagering.
Pace Analysis
Vicountess (PP 6) is profiled as the fastest leader and should control the pace from an outside draw. Shinelikeadiamond (PP 4) is a mid-pack leader who may press early. Naughty Destiny (PP 3, if running) is a fast leader from the Charles Town circuit. The pace should be honest with enough speed to set up closers if the frontrunners duel. In a sprint on a wet track, the advantage typically goes to early speed.
Key Contenders
Vicountess (PP 6) at 7-2 on the morning line is the consensus top pick. She has a strong 25% career win rate (6 for 24) and a 54% ITM. Her recent form is outstanding: third, first, first in her last three starts over six furlongs on the dirt. She is the fastest leader in the field, and Penn National’s sprint bias favoring early speed plays directly into her style. Jockey Angel Rodriguez (26% win rate, 62% ITM) and trainer Brandon Kulp (30% win rate, 63% ITM) form the most potent jockey-trainer combination in the race.
Shigeko (PP 8) at 3-1 is an interesting contender with $794,755 in career earnings — by far the highest in the field. She is dropping sharply in class from route races to a sprint, which is a question mark. Her mid-pack closing style may struggle in a sprint if the pace is slow and if the off track favors speed. Jockey Wilfredo Corujo has a modest 9% win rate, which is a concern.
Pageant Princess (PP 2) at 4-1 has a 25% win rate from 20 career starts and profiles as a fast closer. Her recent second-place finish at Penn National over six furlongs shows she is fit and ready. Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez (17% win rate, 48% ITM) is solid.
Secondary Choices
G’s Fireball (PP 5) at 5-1 brings solid ITM consistency (43% career) and 53 starts of experience. She is a mid-pack stalker who can be in the mix late. Trainer Timothy Kreiser has a 20% win rate and 57% ITM at the meet.
Lastchance Romance (PP 7) at 5-1 ships in from Laurel Park with a 25% win rate and 58% ITM from 24 career starts. She profiles as a fast deep runner, and jockey Inoel Beato’s 10% win rate is modest but his 51% ITM suggests he consistently places his mounts in contention.
Rolls Royce Joyce (PP 3) at 10-1 has won two of her last three at Parx and brings a 19% career win rate from 43 starts. At that price, she offers value, though the lighter weight of 118 pounds gives her a small edge.
Longshots
Wink of an Eye (PP 1) at 15-1 is the most accomplished horse in the field by win rate at the claiming level, with a 28% career win rate and 61% ITM. Her recent form has been mixed but her class is obvious. She drops in from Parx and if overlooked in the wagering, she could provide a big price.
Selections
Win: Vicountess (PP 6)
Place: Pageant Princess (PP 2)
Show: G’s Fireball (PP 5)
Betting Strategy: This nine-horse field is ideal for trifecta and superfecta plays. Key Vicountess on top of trifectas with Pageant Princess, Shigeko, G’s Fireball, and Lastchance Romance underneath. A trifecta key of 6 over 2-5-7-8 in the place and show positions provides 12 combinations. Add Wink of an Eye at 15-1 to superfecta tickets for potential large payoffs.
Race 4 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $37,000
Post Time: 7:12 PM EST
This is the feature race of the evening — a six-furlong allowance sprint for fillies and mares that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state-bred. The $37,000 purse (plus PABF bonus) attracts a quality eight-horse field.
Pace Analysis
Tempting Lady (PP 2) is profiled as a fast leader who should control the pace from an inside draw. Angel of Hope (PP 1) is the slowest leader and may press. Cardinal War Cry (PP 8) is a fast leader from the outside, and the three-way speed scenario could produce an honest pace that sets up for closers. Missy Sixtysix (PP 6) is the fastest deep runner, and Caitlin The Great (PP 7) and Star Blessing (PP 4) are both closers who would benefit from a contested pace.
Key Contenders
Tempting Lady (PP 2) at 5-2 is the morning line choice and carries the best recent form. She has a 24% career win rate (5 for 21) and an outstanding 71% ITM. Her last three starts produced finishes of second, first, and first — including wins at Parx over a mile and 6 1/2 furlongs. Jockey Yabriel Ramos pilots for trainer Bruce Kravets. Her fast leading style suits the Penn National sprint bias, and her consistency makes her a reliable anchor for exotic wagers.
Missy Sixtysix (PP 6) at 3-1 profiles as the fastest deep runner and brings $301,590 in career earnings. She has 27 starts with a 15% win rate and 63% ITM. Her last three at Parx (third, second, third) show consistent form at a higher level. Jockey Eliseo Ruiz (17% win, 54% ITM) and trainer Michael Moore (23% win, 68% ITM) form a strong combination.
Caitlin The Great (PP 7) at 6-1 may offer the best value in the race. She has a 29% career win rate (2 for 7) and an extraordinary 86% ITM. Her last start was a fourth at Parx over 6 1/2 furlongs, but prior to that she won her last two starts including a six-furlong victory at Penn National. Jockey Angel Rodriguez (26% win, 62% ITM) and trainer Edward Allard (31% win, 57% ITM) present the strongest connections by the numbers. At 6-1, this is a prime value play.
Secondary Choices
Tudox Dahlia (PP 5) at 4-1 has a 20% win rate from 10 starts and 70% ITM. She is the slowest closer in the field and will need a hot pace to set up her late run. Her form line (tenth, third, first) is erratic. Trainer Elisha Perez has a 22% win rate.
Star Blessing (PP 4) at 6-1 ships in from the turf at Indiana Grand and Hawthorne. This is her first start on a dirt sprint, so she is a wild card. At 14% career win rate from just 7 starts, she is lightly raced and may improve dramatically on a new surface.
Cardinal War Cry (PP 8) at 8-1 has a 21% career win rate and 57% ITM from 14 starts. Her last three at Penn National produced finishes of third, fourth, and fourth — competitive without winning. She could rally if the pace heats up.
Longshots
Angel of Hope (PP 1) at 10-1 has a 53% ITM rate from 15 career starts despite only a 13% win rate. Her last run was a poor eighth, but the rail draw in a sprint could help if she breaks alertly. Trainer Hugo Padilla has a 19% win rate.
Selections
Win: Tempting Lady (PP 2)
Place: Caitlin The Great (PP 7)
Show: Missy Sixtysix (PP 6)
Betting Strategy: This is the strongest race on the card and the one where value can be found at Caitlin The Great at 6-1. Consider a win bet on Caitlin The Great as a stand-alone play. For exactas, key Tempting Lady and Caitlin The Great over each other (2 with 7, 7 with 2) and add Missy Sixtysix underneath. A trifecta box of 2-6-7 costs just $6 and covers the three most likely contenders. Add Cardinal War Cry to superfecta tickets for upside.
Race 5 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,000
Post Time: 7:41 PM EST
Six runners go to post in this $25,000 claiming sprint, the second-highest purse on the card at $32,000. This is a competitive race with several horses dropping in class.
Pace Analysis
Brother Rice (PP 4) and Icing (PP 1) are both profiled as front-running speed types who could duel early. Mask Patrol (PP 6) is a mid-pack leader. If the two speed horses engage, it could set up for Mask Patrol or Total Sensation (PP 5) to close. However, if Brother Rice scratches (he is on scratch watch), the pace collapses and Icing could steal the race on the lead.
Key Contenders
Brother Rice (PP 4) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite with an outstanding 36% win rate from 11 career starts and 64% ITM. He won his last start at Penn National over six furlongs and has been third in his two prior races. Jockey Julio Hernandez (19% win, 54% ITM) recently won on sloppy ground at Penn National. Trainer Elisha Perez (22% win, 45% ITM) rounds out a strong connection. However, he is flagged on the scratch watch and bettors must confirm his status. His form at 50% win and 83% show rate at this distance with this jockey is outstanding.
Total Sensation (PP 5) at 5-2 has a 23% career win rate from 13 starts but carries 122 pounds — the highest weight in the field. His recent form has been poor with back-to-back ninth-place finishes at Laurel Park. However, he is classified as the slowest closer and jockey Angel Rodriguez (26% win rate) could revive him on a wet track.
Mask Patrol (PP 6) at 3-1 is a 7-year-old veteran with 35 starts (6 wins, 12 seconds, 15 thirds) and a 43% ITM. His recent form at Penn National is strong: first, second, and third in his last three starts. Jockey Jomar Torres (14% win, 42% ITM) knows the track well. Mask Patrol’s mid-pack leader style allows him to stalk the pace and pounce, which works well at Penn National.
Secondary Choices
Severn Run (PP 2) at 5-1 has a modest 6% career win rate from 32 starts but a tremendous 59% ITM, meaning he almost always hits the board. His recent form includes a win and a second at Penn National over six furlongs. He profiles as a slower leader who may benefit from a hot pace.
Cold Feet (PP 3) at 8-1 has a 36% career win rate from 22 starts and won his last race at Parx. He ships in with strong numbers and profiles as a mid-pack deep runner. Jockey Joezer Rangel has a disappointing 2% win rate, which significantly dampens enthusiasm.
Longshots
Icing (PP 1) at 12-1 has the highest career win rate in the field at 29% from 49 starts with $487,310 in earnings. His recent form includes a first at Charles Town and a first at Laurel Park. As the fastest leader drawing the rail, he could steal this race on the front end if ignored in the wagering. Trainer Karin Wagner has a 27% win rate. At 12-1, he is a genuine play.
Selections
Win: Mask Patrol (PP 6)
Place: Brother Rice (PP 4)
Show: Icing (PP 1)
Betting Strategy: If Brother Rice scratches, Mask Patrol becomes the clear top choice. Icing at 12-1 from the rail is the sleeper play. A trifecta key of 6 over 1-2-4 in the place and show slots provides solid coverage. If the morning line holds, consider a $1 exacta box of 4-6 and a separate $1 exacta of 1 over 4-6 for the longshot angle.
Race 6 — Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $17,000
Post Time: 8:10 PM EST
Eight geldings contest this $7,500 claiming route race for horses that have not won since November 26. The two-turn route on a wet track will test stamina and determination.
Pace Analysis
Town’s Warrior (PP 2) is the fastest leader in the field and should control the tempo from an inside draw. Tubtimsiam (PP 8) is a slower leader who may press early. Wish For Peace (PP 1) is a mid-pack deep type, while Curlington (PP 4), Balantyne (PP 3), and Gangly (PP 6) are all closers. This shapes up as a one-speed race with Town’s Warrior dictating terms on the front end. On a sloppy track, a lone speed horse in a route can be very dangerous.
Key Contenders
Town’s Warrior (PP 2) at 9-5 on the morning line is the consensus pick. He has three consecutive wins, including two at Delaware Park and one at Penn National over a mile. His career record of 16% wins from 38 starts and 50% ITM understates his current form. Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez has a remarkable 40% win rate and 60% ITM at Penn National recently. Trainer Timothy Kreiser posts a 35% win rate and 71% ITM — the strongest trainer numbers on the card. As the lone speed in a route on a wet track, he could wire this field.
Wish For Peace (PP 1) at 3-1 brings the most experience with 52 career starts (7 wins, 16 seconds, 21 thirds) and a 40% ITM. His $695,296 in career earnings is the highest in the field. He is a mid-pack deep type who will need to close ground on Town’s Warrior. Jockey Ricardo Chiappe (16% win, 62% ITM at PEN) and trainer Bruce Kravets provide solid connections.
Curlington (PP 4) at 7-2 has 37 career starts with a 22% win rate and 57% ITM — strong numbers that suggest class. His recent form at Penn National (fifth, fifth, second) shows he is competitive at this level. Jockey Angel Rodriguez (27% win, 67% ITM) is the best rider in the race.
Secondary Choices
Balantyne (PP 3) at 8-1 has a 20% win rate from 35 starts and 57% ITM. He is a slower closer who may need a pace collapse to contend. His recent third at Parx over a mile shows fitness.
Tubtimsiam (PP 8) at 10-1 has an 18% career win rate and showed a second-place finish at Penn National over a mile in his last start at the track — the field where Town’s Warrior also competed. He is a slower leader who draws the outside post, which hurts in routes at Penn National.
Longshots
Gangly (PP 6) at 8-1 has a 17% win rate and $354,800 in career earnings but his recent form at Laurel Park is dismal (eighth, eighth). Hard to trust.
Selections
Win: Town’s Warrior (PP 2)
Place: Curlington (PP 4)
Show: Wish For Peace (PP 1)
Betting Strategy: Town’s Warrior as the lone speed in a route on a wet track is a potential single in multi-race wagers. A straight win bet is justified. For exotic coverage, an exacta key of 2 over 1-3-4 provides solid value. A trifecta key of 2 over 1-3-4 in the place and show offers 6 combinations.
Race 7 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $14,000
Post Time: 8:39 PM EST
Seven fillies and mares compete in this $5,000 claiming sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs for horses that have never won three races.
Pace Analysis
Diamond Essence (PP 4) is the fastest stalker, while Naughty Destiny (PP 3) is a fast leader type. Indini (PP 6) is a mid-pack leader. Virologist (PP 1) is a fast closer who will sit behind the pace. Vivid Artiste (PP 7) is a mid-pack closer. The pace should be moderate with Naughty Destiny and Indini pressing early, setting up the stalker Diamond Essence and the closers.
Key Contenders
Virologist (PP 1) at 8-5 (GTS pick) is the consensus favorite with a 58% ITM rate from 24 career starts despite only a 8% win rate (2 wins). Her consistency in hitting the board is remarkable. She is a fast closer coming off a second-place finish at Parx over six furlongs and a third at Penn National. Jockey Yabriel Ramos and trainer Bruce Kravets combine for the most experienced connection in the race.
Diamond Essence (PP 4) at 9-5 is the fastest stalker with a 60% ITM from 15 career starts and a 13% win rate. Her recent form at Penn National is strong: second, third, and fourth in her last three. Jockey Wilfredo Corujo has a 17% win rate at the track. Trainer Timothy Kreiser’s strong ITM numbers (50%) make this a serious contender.
Vivid Artiste (PP 7) at 7-2 won her last two starts at Penn National over five furlongs and has a 56% ITM from 27 career starts. Her mid-pack closing style fits the profile of a horse who can benefit from early speed duels. Jockey David Cora and trainer Kevin Fields round out the connections.
Secondary Choices
Naughty Destiny (PP 3) at 8-1 has shown some ability at Charles Town but her recent form has been poor (seventh, fifth, seventh). She has a 10% career win rate from 21 starts.
Nanisca (PP 2) at 10-1 has a 22% win rate from 9 starts but her last three at Parx have been dismal (fifth, ninth, ninth). She is trained by Jorge Diaz and ridden by Dexter Haddock.
Longshots
Indini (PP 6) at 15-1 has a 20% career win rate from 10 starts and 60% ITM, but her recent form at Penn National has regressed (sixth, seventh, third). She is a Kravets-trained runner who could wake up at a big price.
Selections
Win: Diamond Essence (PP 4)
Place: Virologist (PP 1)
Show: Vivid Artiste (PP 7)
Betting Strategy: Diamond Essence at 9-5 offers slightly better value than Virologist because her stalking style is better suited to a wet sprint track. An exacta box of 1-4 is the core play. A trifecta box of 1-4-7 at $6 covers the three most likely contenders. Add Indini (PP 6) to superfecta tickets at 15-1.
Race 8 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,000
Post Time: 9:08 PM EST
Nine runners close out the card in this $5,000 claiming sprint for horses that have never won two races. A full field with mostly one-dimensional runners makes this a challenging race to handicap.
Pace Analysis
Ellinger (PP 1) is the fastest leader and draws the rail — a positive for the sprint bias. Bearing Down (PP 8) and Dancing On Air (PP 6) are fast stalkers. Wizardofez (PP 7) is the fastest closer. The pace could be moderate with Ellinger controlling the front end from the inside, setting up a pace-pressing scenario.
Key Contenders
Ellinger (PP 1) at 2-1 is the consensus morning line favorite. Despite only 1 win from 24 starts (4% win rate), he has an impressive 42% ITM with 10 seconds and 10 thirds. He is the fastest leader drawing the inside post. At 115 pounds, he carries a significant weight advantage over the rest of the field at 122 pounds — a seven-pound swing. Jockey Jose Vargas has a modest 8% win rate, which is a concern, but trainer Charles Frock shows 17% win and 83% ITM from a small sample.
Bearing Down (PP 8) at 7-2 is trained by the active Bruce Kravets barn and ridden by Ricardo Chiappe (19% win, 46% ITM). He has 25 career starts with only one win but a 28% ITM. His recent form includes a fourth at Charles Town and a third at Penn National. His fast stalking style allows him to sit behind Ellinger and pounce.
Kerner (PP 2) at 5-1 won his last start at Parx over 5 1/2 furlongs and has a mid-pack stalking style. Jockey Jean Aguilar (18% win, 47% ITM) and trainer Perez Flores Tony (22% win, 78% ITM) provide a strong connection.
Secondary Choices
Palace Revolt (PP 3) at 6-1 has a win over six furlongs on dirt and is ridden by Julio Hernandez (27% win rate, 68% ITM at Penn National). His recent form has been poor (tenth, sixth), but the Hernandez factor alone demands respect.
Wizardofez (PP 7) at 6-1 is the fastest closer in the race and won two starts ago at Penn National. His recent seventh-place finish is a concern, but he could close late if the pace is hot.
Dancing On Air (PP 6) at 10-1 won his most recent start at Penn National over six furlongs and is a fast stalker. He offers mild value at the price.
Longshots
Gronksflyinseagull (PP 5) at 15-1 has one win from four starts, including a victory at Penn National over 5 1/2 furlongs. He is lightly raced and could improve.
Selections
Win: Ellinger (PP 1)
Place: Bearing Down (PP 8)
Show: Kerner (PP 2)
Betting Strategy: Ellinger’s weight advantage and rail draw make him the top choice in this nightcap. An exacta key of 1 over 2-3-8 provides coverage at a reasonable cost. For the trifecta, key 1 on top with 2-3-7-8 in the place and show positions. This is the final leg of any multi-race wagers and should be played wider due to the full field.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel R. Rodriguez is the dominant rider at Penn National this winter meet. He carries a 27% win rate and 75% ITM from recent starts at the track, and he won on both Porch Swing (sloppy track) and Shirl’s Delight on February 21, demonstrating his effectiveness on off tracks. He has six mounts today across Races 1 (Nilambar), 2 (Hi Heeled Warrior), 3 (Vicountess), 4 (Caitlin The Great), 5 (Total Sensation), and 6 (Curlington). Any time Rodriguez is aboard, that horse deserves serious consideration.
Julio A. Hernandez is a multi-year Penn National riding champion (2018, 2021, 2022) who recently won on Mega Changer over a sloppy track at Penn National on February 21. He has mounts in Races 2 (Penny Polka), 3 (Wink of an Eye), 5 (Brother Rice), 6 (Striking Sparks), and 8 (Palace Revolt). His 19% win rate and 54% ITM make every mount a contender.
Yabriel O. Ramos carries the best overall win rate among Penn National regulars at 41.67% from recent action. He has the heaviest book today with mounts in six races: Stonecoldhandsome (R1), Bonita Lassie (R2), Rolls Royce Joyce (R3), Tempting Lady (R4), Virologist (R7), and Gronksflyinseagull (R8). His ability to guide front-running and stalking types makes him dangerous in every race.
Ricardo Chiappe has a solid 14-16% win rate and an outstanding 48-62% ITM, making him one of the most reliable board-hitting jockeys at Penn National. He rides Christ Is King (R1), Normandy Life (R4), Wish For Peace (R6), Indini (R7), and Bearing Down (R8).
Inoel Beato maintains a 10% win rate but an impressive 51% ITM, making him a strong inclusion in exotic wagers where place and show finishes count. He rides Lastchance Romance (R3), Severn Run (R5), and Ocala Dream (R6).
David Cora has been riding at an 18% win rate and 55% ITM and has live mounts in Showmance (R1), Vivid Artiste (R7), and Dancing On Air (R8).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bruce M. Kravets is the most active trainer on the card with nine runners across six races. He most recently won with Casa Juanita at Penn National on February 21. His stable shows a 10-14% win rate and 39-54% ITM across various metrics. Today’s runners include Stonecoldhandsome and Christ Is King (R1), Bonita Lassie (R2), Tempting Lady (R4), Wish For Peace and Tubtimsiam (R6), Virologist and Indini (R7), and Bearing Down (R8). The stable’s volume means not every runner is a live play, so handicappers should focus on the best-positioned runners in each race.
Timothy C. Kreiser posts the strongest trainer numbers on the card with a 35% win rate and 71% ITM from 48 recent starts at Penn National. His runners today include G’s Fireball and Shigeko (R3), Town’s Warrior (R6), and Diamond Essence (R7). Town’s Warrior and Diamond Essence are particularly well positioned in their races.
Kathleen A. Demasi shows a 37.14% win rate from 70 starts historically at Penn National. She enters Pageant Princess (R3) and Mask Patrol (R5). Both runners are competitive in their respective fields.
Edward T. Allard trains Caitlin The Great (R4) and posts a 31% win rate and 57% ITM — strong numbers that support the value play at 6-1 in the feature race.
Michael V. Pino trains Nilambar (R1) and shows a 31% win rate and 59% ITM — the best trainer metrics in the opening race.
Elisha Perez trains Wink of an Eye (R3), Tudox Dahlia (R4), and Brother Rice (R5), showing a 22% win rate and 45% ITM. Brother Rice, if he runs, is a key runner in Race 5.
Silvino Ramirez trains Cold Feet (R5) and Balantyne (R6) with a solid 13-24% win rate and strong ITM numbers.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The wet track is the overriding factor on tonight’s card. With 1-2 inches of rain expected before and during racing, the dirt surface will be sloppy or muddy. This magnifies the advantage of front-running speed types who can control the tempo without having to navigate heavy kickback from behind. Horses profiled as closers face an uphill battle unless the pace becomes contested enough to create fatigue up front.
The best single-race value play on the card is Caitlin The Great (PP 7, Race 4) at 6-1 in the featured allowance event. Her 29% career win rate, 86% ITM, and powerful Rodriguez-Allard connection make her a strong underlay candidate. A $20 win bet at 6-1 returns $140 if successful.
The second-best value play is Icing (PP 1, Race 5) at 12-1. His 29% career win rate and front-running style from the rail on a wet track present a genuine upset scenario, particularly if Brother Rice scratches and the pace dynamics shift in his favor.
For multi-race wagering, the Pick 4 beginning in Race 5 offers the best opportunity to build a meaningful ticket. A suggested structure:
Race 5: 4, 6, 1 (Brother Rice, Mask Patrol, Icing — use 6 and 1 if Brother Rice scratches)
Race 6: 2, 4 (Town’s Warrior, Curlington)
Race 7: 1, 4 (Virologist, Diamond Essence)
Race 8: 1, 2, 8 (Ellinger, Kerner, Bearing Down)
This ticket costs $36 on a $1 base. To reduce cost, single Town’s Warrior in Race 6 (a strong lone-speed play on a wet track) and the ticket drops to $18.
For the daily double linking Races 7 and 8, a $2 double of Diamond Essence (4) and Virologist (1) over Ellinger (1) and Bearing Down (8) costs $8 and covers the most likely scenarios.
Morning line analysis suggests the best underlays (horses likely to go off at lower odds than their true chances warrant) are Bonita Lassie in Race 2 at 2-1, Shigeko in Race 3 at 3-1, and Total Sensation in Race 5 at 5-2. These horses have morning line odds that overestimate their chances of winning based on their recent form and running styles.
The best overlays (horses likely to provide value above their morning line) are Caitlin The Great at 6-1 in Race 4, Icing at 12-1 in Race 5, Town’s Warrior at 9-5 in Race 6 (the lone-speed factor makes him a near-single), and Diamond Essence at 9-5 in Race 7.
Tonight’s card rewards handicappers who identify wet-track speed horses, trust the Penn National sprint bias, and focus exotic wagers around the most reliable jockey-trainer combinations. Good luck and bet responsibly.
